They won’t go arrest the guy, no. Nor will they likely NARU him unless yours is one of many complaints. But- file with Paypal within 30 days if you did not get the goods, and they WILL refund (or chargeback) your money. If they don’t, your CC company will, and Paypal knows that.
Followup . . .
The package arrived yesterday, pretty much as promised.
The tag said “FedEx Ground” on it, though.
On the 20th, the guy said he had shipped it in an email and it was marked as shipped on the 21st.
Based on that lie, and not overnighting it, I gave the guy a negative review (he has a ton of them) and withdrew the paypal complaint.
Basically resolved. The most upsetting thing was just not getting it for Xmas.
Thanks to all for the advice.