# Moscow Mitch working on exit strategy? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 5, 2021, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/moscow-mitch-working-on-exit-strategy/937276 "2021-03-05T16:44:07Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![iamthewalrus\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/258eb7/32.png) [@iamthewalrus\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamthewalrus_3)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2021, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/moscow-mitch-working-on-exit-strategy/937276/41 "2021-03-07T22:18:46Z")
I’m not making a both-sides argument. I explicitly acknowledged that political violence from the right is a _way_ bigger problem. I _am_ concerned with political violence in this country, but this thread is about new legislation in Kentucky. And I don’t think that it’s the cornerstone of a solution, but I think it’s a step in the right direction. I think that every state should make a change like this because I think it’s a good change that will reduce possible political violence. There are Democratic Senators from states with Republican governors who are under much greater threat than McConnell is. I’m under no illusions that Kentucky is making this change for any reason other than because the Republican legislature can help keep Republicans in the Senate in power. But I don’t vote for anybody in Kentucky, I’m just having opinions on the internet. > [@Hari\_Seldon](#): > > That wasn’t the reason they got rid of the runner-up VP. I shouldn’t have said it was, since I don’t actually know the history of that. I do believe that it’s a bad idea to have the runner-up be VP for that reason _among many others_. Thanks for the history lesson. > [@Kimstu](#): > > AFAICT, none of the senators affected by any of these variant rules seem to be considered at elevated risk of assassination. I could certainly be wrong about this, but I don’t think we should count on right-wing militias to not figure out how succession rules work. I am skeptical that anyone has enough information to make great threat assessments about this, and even more skeptical that it would be publicly released if it existed. ---
**Author:** ![begbert2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/begbert2/32/3357_2.png) [@begbert2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/begbert2)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2021, 10:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/moscow-mitch-working-on-exit-strategy/937276/42 "2021-03-09T22:43:25Z")
> [@iamthewalrus\_3](#): > > I could certainly be wrong about this, but I don’t think we should count on right-wing militias to not figure out how succession rules work. I am skeptical that anyone has enough information to make great threat assessments about this, and even more skeptical that it would be publicly released if it existed. Since, as you say, this thread is about new legislation in Kentucky, I’m not really worried about what’s going to happen if the right-wing militias figure out that they could get a left-wing senator by killing Mitch. ---
**Author:** ![Miller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/miller/32/481_2.png) [@Miller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Miller)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2021, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/moscow-mitch-working-on-exit-strategy/937276/43 "2021-03-09T23:21:35Z")
> [@iamthewalrus\_3](#): > > Assassination is not a fictitious concern. Attempts at political assassination occur regularly, and sometimes succeed. Maybe mostly by lone-wolf whack-jobs, but not solely. Designing our institutions so that clear-eyed violent operatives can effect political change by taking out a specific politician and installing one from the opposing party is a _bad idea_ . Would you consider the shooting of Gabby Giffords to be a politically motivated attack? ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/moscow-mitch-working-on-exit-strategy/937276/44 "2021-03-10T01:17:57Z")
> [@DesertDog](#): > > In Arizona a Senator is replaced by the Governor not the legislature, _but_ has to be the same party as the one being replaced. That seems like a darn fair compromise to me. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/moscow-mitch-working-on-exit-strategy/937276/45 "2021-03-10T01:19:37Z")
> [@iamthewalrus\_3](#): > > The rule change would protect against violent _Democratic_ (or otherwise left-wing) extremists who might want to install a Democrat by assassinating McConnell. I can’t imagine Jimmy Carter saying, “I’ll make him an offer he don’t refuse.” ---
**Author:** ![velcro](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velcro/32/7102_2.png) [@velcro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/velcro)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/moscow-mitch-working-on-exit-strategy/937276/46 "2021-03-10T01:38:45Z")
I think the point was clearly made. If one’s preferred candidate takes office when you eliminate the incumbent, then there is a non-zero incentive for eliminating the incumbent. Whether that incentive is significant enough to change laws is another question. I see two ways of looking at it. 1. The people chose a member of Party A for Senate, so that person should be replaced by a member of Party A. 2. The people chose a Governor to make important decisions on behalf of the State. The replacement should be chosen by the Governor. Why not both? I think a reasonable compromise is what DesertDog said. The Governor picks, but the selection must be a member of the same party as the eliminated Senator. ---
**Author:** ![kitap](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/b9e5f3/32.png) [@kitap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kitap)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 4:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/moscow-mitch-working-on-exit-strategy/937276/47 "2021-03-10T04:25:05Z")
> [@Miller](#): > > > [@iamthewalrus\_3](#): > > > > Assassination is not a fictitious concern. Attempts at political assassination occur regularly, and sometimes succeed. Maybe mostly by lone-wolf whack-jobs, but not solely. Designing our institutions so that clear-eyed violent operatives can effect political change by taking out a specific politician and installing one from the opposing party is a _bad idea_ . > > Would you consider the shooting of Gabby Giffords to be a politically motivated attack? No. Loughner is mentally ill - paranoid schizophrenia\* - and hates women. He’d’ve shot a Republican woman, too. \*The news here reported that it wasn’t until his sentencing in August of 2012 that he finally was aware enough to understand that he hadn’t killed Gabby. ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 6:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/moscow-mitch-working-on-exit-strategy/937276/48 "2021-03-10T06:35:01Z")
The violence issue is interesting, but Senators die or otherwise leave office for all kinds of reasons and it’s good to have a plan to replace them too. This is a pretty standard-issue good government reform that many states have adopted. It’s actually not a good idea to permit potentially huge swings in the balance of power nationwide based on (A) the partisan affiliation of a random chief executive responsible for some state agencies or (B) an ultra-low turnout election on a date where people aren’t used to voting. (Kentucky, in its infinite wisdom, combines the two of these by electing its governor in an odd year in which 42% is stunning record turnout.) The “I vote for a PERSON, not a PARTY” people will be put out, I’m sure, but they don’t really seem to know whether they’re coming or going anyways, and the appointee will still be a person. I’m not a fan of off-cycle special elections for the House either, but 1/435 is much smaller than 1/100, and in any case it’s constitutionally-mandated, so whatever. ---
**Author:** ![iamthewalrus\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/258eb7/32.png) [@iamthewalrus\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamthewalrus_3)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/moscow-mitch-working-on-exit-strategy/937276/49 "2021-03-10T15:16:10Z")
> [@begbert2](#): > > Since, as you say, this thread is about new legislation in Kentucky, I’m not really worried about what’s going to happen if the right-wing militias figure out that they could get a left-wing senator by killing Mitch. Well, gosh, the comment that was in response to wasn’t precisely on thread topic. Do you actually misunderstand my point (I can clarify) or are you just trying really hard to misconstrue it? ---
**Author:** ![begbert2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/begbert2/32/3357_2.png) [@begbert2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/begbert2)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/moscow-mitch-working-on-exit-strategy/937276/50 "2021-03-10T17:13:53Z")
The comment I was responding to directly referenced the new legislation in Kentucky - that verbiage was a direct quote. And I’m pretty sure your point is that you think this legislative change is justified because you think (against all evidence) that the current state of affairs is extraordinarily dangerous, because (against all evidence) liberals are super-guaranteed to murder Mitch if it’s not changed, er, thirty years ago. ---
**Author:** ![iamthewalrus\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/258eb7/32.png) [@iamthewalrus\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamthewalrus_3)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/moscow-mitch-working-on-exit-strategy/937276/51 "2021-03-10T17:59:25Z")
Ah, ok, there is a misunderstanding, and at least partly on my part (I interpreted **Kimstu** ’s comment as focusing on Democratic Senators as some others were, but that’s not true). I’m going to try again. I think this legislative change is a good one because I think the threat of political assassination is not, as you said “extraordinarily dangerous” but nonzero, and this is a change that reduces it. I agree that the threat to Kentucky Senators at this time is probably lower than the threat to Democratic Senators right now, but I think every state should pass laws like this. Let Kentucky be the model for fixing a system that currently incentivizes political violence by giving potential assassins direct political gains. > [@begbert2](#): > > you think (against all evidence) Just two months ago a mob directly threatened the US Senate. Political violence and assassinations are a real thing. I agree that there’s no direct evidence that there are groups specifically targeting Senators that could be replaced with a member of another party, but I don’t think we should necessarily wait for such evidence, since there’s a substantial possibility that that evidence would come in the form of a dead Senator. People respond to incentives, and when you notice that a system has bad incentives, it’s sometimes better to fix them than wait for someone to exploit them, especially if the consequences of exploiting them are particularly bad, as they would be in this case. ---
**Author:** ![begbert2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/begbert2/32/3357_2.png) [@begbert2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/begbert2)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/moscow-mitch-working-on-exit-strategy/937276/52 "2021-03-10T18:13:54Z")
We can be quite certain that the conservatives aren’t doing this because they believe the current system incentivizes their murder. They’re doing it because they want to retain their grip on power via every dubious legislative approach available. This is not something we should support. I’m not convinced the risk to anyone’s lives is significant enough to worry about - or at least, I don’t think that the current senator-replacement situation detectably increases it. The current round of traitors are driven by hate and stupidity; if they’re targeting democratic leaders it’ll be because they’re democratic leaders who have done something that offends the stupids, not because of Machiavellian consideration of what will happen after the fourth domino falls. ---
**Author:** ![iamthewalrus\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/258eb7/32.png) [@iamthewalrus\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamthewalrus_3)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/moscow-mitch-working-on-exit-strategy/937276/53 "2021-03-10T18:26:48Z")
> [@begbert2](#): > > We can be quite certain that the conservatives aren’t doing this because they believe the current system incentivizes their murder. They’re doing it because they want to retain their grip on power via every dubious legislative approach available. This is not something we should support. I did acknowledge that, and I’m mostly ok with it. Lots of legislation is motived in whole or in part by power-grabs or cynicism. I think the actual change is a good one, despite their motives not being good. > [@begbert2](#): > > not because of Machiavellian consideration of what will happen after the fourth domino falls. To follow this analogy, there’s literally only one domino involved. ---
**Author:** ![begbert2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/begbert2/32/3357_2.png) [@begbert2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/begbert2)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/moscow-mitch-working-on-exit-strategy/937276/54 "2021-03-10T18:29:43Z")
> [@iamthewalrus\_3](#): > > To follow this analogy, there’s literally only one domino involved. Which is still far more planning ability than we’ve seen out of these yahoos so far. (Speaking specifically about Trump and his Trumpist goon squad. The actual republican politicians plan far ahead, but I don’t think even they could get away with openly calling a hit on their co-workers via hinting that they would be replaced by pubs if killed.) ---
**Author:** ![iamthewalrus\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/258eb7/32.png) [@iamthewalrus\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamthewalrus_3)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/moscow-mitch-working-on-exit-strategy/937276/55 "2021-03-10T18:35:15Z")
> [@begbert2](#): > > They’re doing it because they want to retain their grip on power via every dubious legislative approach available. This is not something we should support. A slight modification of this sort of law, which I think would be better and something that we could generally agree on, is that the new appointment procedure would not be in effect until after the next election for all positions involved. I think you can make a good argument that Kentuckians elected _this_ governor and legislature with the set of powers that they had at election time, and if you’re going to change those, then you wait for an election cycle so that people have a chance to elect new people for whatever the new powers are. > [@begbert2](#): > > Which is still far more planning ability than we’ve seen out of these yahoos so far. Sure, but I think that it’s foolish to assume that it’s the only planning we’re going to see. I think an important takeaway from the last few years should be “imagine how much damage _competent_ authoritarians and fringe groups could do.” And we shouldn’t wait for them to exist to plug the holes in our institutions. ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/moscow-mitch-working-on-exit-strategy/937276/56 "2021-03-10T19:14:49Z")
> [@begbert2](#): > > …but I don’t think even they could get away with openly calling a hit on their co-workers via hinting that they would be replaced by pubs if killed… Yeah, I could never imagine, say, a presidential candidate calling for, say, Second Amendment solutions, regarding a rival picking, say, judges. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/moscow-mitch-working-on-exit-strategy/937276/57 "2021-03-10T20:24:55Z")
> [@iamthewalrus\_3](#): > > A slight modification of this sort of law, which I think would be better and something that we could generally agree on, is that the new appointment procedure would not be in effect until after the next election for all positions involved. How about that this law is only applicable to senators that have died. Prevents a motive for assassination, and prevents a cynical governor from capitalizing on a tragedy. If one resigns, or is removed from office, then there really is no reason to honor the party they came from. ---
**Author:** ![iamthewalrus\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/258eb7/32.png) [@iamthewalrus\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamthewalrus_3)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/moscow-mitch-working-on-exit-strategy/937276/58 "2021-03-10T23:02:18Z")
Yeah, that seems reasonable. I disagree with this, though: > [@k9bfriender](#): > > If one resigns, or is removed from office, then there really is no reason to honor the party they came from. I don’t think there’s no reason to do it. I think many people vote for a particular party. That doesn’t mean that it should be the only consideration, but I think it’s reasonable for it to be a consideration. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/moscow-mitch-working-on-exit-strategy/937276/59 "2021-03-10T23:11:50Z")
> [@iamthewalrus\_3](#): > > I don’t think there’s no reason to do it. I think many people vote for a particular party. That doesn’t mean that it should be the only consideration, but I think it’s reasonable for it to be a consideration. My reasoning is that resignation or removal from office usually comes on the heels of doing something objectionable. If a person does something objectionable, then I don’t know that their party should be rewarded for it. Also, I don’t know that I really like the idea of a senator resigning with a year left so that their hand picked successor can run as an incumbent. Personally, I think that it should go to a special election in the case of resignation or removal. The unexpected death or assassination of a senator should be treated differently though, and I can see replacing them with someone from the party. ---
**Author:** ![iamthewalrus\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/258eb7/32.png) [@iamthewalrus\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamthewalrus_3)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/moscow-mitch-working-on-exit-strategy/937276/60 "2021-03-10T23:19:50Z")
Those are all good points. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/moscow-mitch-working-on-exit-strategy/937276.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/moscow-mitch-working-on-exit-strategy/937276.md?page=4)