Agreed, it is a dismal situation. But I believe that their contacts with the outside could be intercepted and diverted. In any case, if their stated purpose is sincere, and they are not barbarians to the very core, they might be willing to suffer or die in a “more honorable” way without taking the lives of their hostages, having achieved their goal.
That is true. I guess it depends on their mentality. I sincerely hope that you are right and the do go for an ‘honorable’ demise. What is certain, and I do agree with you entirely here, is that if the troops storm the building then it will end in total disaster.
Another excerpt from today’s Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Newsline at www.rferl.org (there’s lots more detail from/about Russian media sources, in English, if you’re interested. I guess this is what happens if you treat an entire people like crap for a couple hundred years…
“AL-JAZEERA TV BROADCASTS ‘TESTIMONY’ OF HOSTAGE TAKERS
Al-Jazeera Satellite TV broadcast the “testimonies” of two Chechen hostage takers on 24 October. The first hostage taker of “the Sabotage and Military Surveillance Group of the Riaydh al-Salihin Martyrs,” as he identified himself, said the group is operating under the orders of the military commander of the Chechen Republic, apparently referring to President Maskhadov or Chechen field commander Shamil Basaev. Maskhadov is commander-in-chief of the Chechen armed forces; Basaev is head of the military committee and armed forces deputy commander-in-chief. “Our demands are an end to the war and a withdrawal of Russian forces… Each one of us is prepared to sacrifice himself for the sake of God and Chechen independence,” the unidentified man said. Al-Jazeera also carried the “testimony” of a female hostage taker who stressed the Chechens’ right of self-determination, saying that Russia has taken away this right. “We have been waiting for a just, humanitarian solution, but humanity is living in a state of slumber and does not care about the killing of innocent people. Old men, women, and children are being killed in Chechnya. Therefore, we have chosen this path, the path of struggle for the Chechen people’s freedom,” the unidentified woman said. “Our patriots are being wiped out, and they are called terrorists and criminals. However, Russia is the real terrorist.” ITAR-TASS on 25 October distributed Baraev’s statement to Al Jazeera, in which he says his goal is to end the war in Chechnya. “We are ready to die for the independence of our fatherland, and we choose to die in Moscow and to take with us the souls of the infidels,” Baraev is quoted as saying.”
Eva Luna wrote:
I’m sorry, but I just can’t let that pass. You make it sound like the hostages deserve their fate. What if your own family were in there? The men, women, and children who were assaulted and imprisoned are not “infidels” as Baraev said. No one is responsible for “what happens” except for the thugs who’ve threatened to blow everyone up.
Lib, I think it’s extremely unlikely that Eva Luna meant “this is justified” when (s)he wrote “I guess this is what happens”. ISTM, the intent was to say “I guess this is the type of mentality created within a people after systematic oppression”.
They are now threatening to start executing the hostages tonight - this BBC link says they are going to start Saturday morning but I think it is a few hours out of date - they are now saying tonight.
600 hostages is just an insane number of hostages, they could kill them at a rate of 10 a day (or even 10 an hour) and still have plenty left.
If they start killing them then something is going to have to be done, surely.
This is probably a stupid idea but I had an idea kinda like Libertarian’s.
What if they call the hijacker’s bluff? They actually do start withdrawing from Chechnya (not just pretend to). The hijackers will have to start releasing hostages. Once all the hostages have been released, Russia simply rolls back in the following day.
Sure, it’d cost a bit of money moving all those troops and machinery around but it may save 600 lives and it’d make the terrorists feel really stupid (and look like a bunch of numbskulls).
I’m sure there’s probably a hundred really good reasons why this can’t be done but I can’t think of them at the moment.
The other thing that worries me about this whole thing is that Russia aren’t exactly known for their restraint in things like this, if those terrorists really do kill all those people there is going to be a major bloodbath in Chechnya.
If the terrorists kill 600 in Moscow, the Russians will kill 6000 in Chechnya.
What do y’all think? Is my plan just too stupid to consider?
Ummm, yep.
**Libertarian, ** we seem to have had a miscommunication. I by no means meant that the specific private individuals inside the theater deserved whatever fate may await them. What I meant is that the Russian government is currently sowing what they have reaped.
As you can probably surmise by the number of times I’ve posted on this thread, I follow Chechen affairs rather closely, and the Chechens figure prominently in my master’s thesis. The Russian Imperial, then the Soviet, and now the Russian Federation governments have largely treated the Chechens like crap, and the poor people inside the theater right now are unfortunately the victims of that legacy of oppression. Again, I’m not saying that hostage-taking is ever the answer; I simply meant that the current situation hasn’t come out of the blue.
If you want further explanation/cites re: past Russian treatment of the Chechens, check out my previous thread on the subject:
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?threadid=128809&highlight=Chechen+AND+Luna
Ooops; I meant “the Russian government is currently reaping what they have sown,” althouh I guess it’s been cyclical, which means it works the other way, too.
As I mentioned in an MPSIMS thread, the Russians should have some pretty highly trained hostage rescue teams within Spetsnaz. They were also getting loads of intelligence from the inside because so many hostages have cell phones. I also detect a significant amount of outrage coming from Russian officials, and they claim they’re done talking. And unless I’m incorrect, the usual rule of thumb is that when your hostage-takers start executing people, you’re better off going in than waiting around, particularly when the demands are as fantastic as those of these people.
Let me be clear: I am not saying that storming the theatre is a good idea. I am simply trying to make the observation that the situation offers the possibility of doing it, and it may soon be perceived as a necessity. Allowing that to happen would be a major mistake on the part of the hostage-takers, because once the good guys are convinced they have to use force, the political objectives are out the window. Obviously, it’s also really dangerous for all parties involved.
To pull the job off you’d have to take all ten of the explosives carriers down by headshot within seconds of entry. Then there are at least thirty more armed people who have to die in short order. Lanes of fire would have to be carefully arranged to avoid having the HRT shoot each other and/or the hostages. I don’t see how it can be done without trying to put two or three good-guys on top of every bad guy, which means that you’d have to have probably a dozen or more points of entry, all timed to blow open at a central command.
It’s always a fair guess that they’ll move at about 3 am local time, when peoples’ circadian rhythms are at their lowest ebb. www.timezoneconverter.com tells me that’s in about two hours. If nothing happens around then, I wouldn’t be surprised if they waited another day.
The split-second timing required to pull something like this off is mind-boggling, but at the same time a well-trained HRT–actually, several acting in concert–is probably capable of doing it. SAS or Delta could probably do it. Is Spetsnaz capable of doing it? I don’t know. I’m pretty certain that the Russians will insist that it be their boys who go in, no matter how much technical help they get from outside sources. Stories of Spetsnaz troops moonlighting as bodyguards in order to keep their families fed isn’t encouraging, either.
I fervently wish that it does not come to that, but I consider it to be a distinct possibility.
Sofa All the reports I have seen say that the terrorists have bombs and mines other than those on the suicide bombers. It is possible that at the first sign of the rescue team the terrorists might just blow the whole building… Still, if they start killing hostages I don’t see what choice there is. Maybe the Russians should grab 600 random Chechens and do a tit for tat exchange… 10 dead hostages, 10 dead Chechens…
I just read on Salon that reporters and bystanders have reported hearing gunshots and a small explosion in the theatre. If this is true, then the Russian authorities may have no realistic option but to storm the building.
If they do, I wish them luck.
Um. What?
More from today’s RFE/RL Newsline (www.rferl.org). And people wonder why the CChechens are pissed off…
…AS MOSCOW BEGINS CHECKING DOCUMENTS
Police in Moscow have begun randomly stopping people of Caucasian appearance in the subway and on the street to check the validity of their documents, “Izvestiya” reported on 25 October. For the estimated 100,000 Chechens living in Moscow, this essentially means that they cannot leave their homes, attend school, or go to work, the daily commented. Salambek Maigov, deputy chairman of the Eurasia party and a leader of the Chechen diaspora, said that he had been stopped and searched, allegedly for narcotics and weapons, on 24 October. The Chechen cultural center Daimokkh was closed on 24 October. “In September 1999 [when the second war in Chechnya began], we didn’t manage to close in time,” said center Director Abuyazit Apaev, “and the Interior Ministry came and trashed the place.” “Instead of trying to answer questions like how the terrorists got to Moscow, where they lived, how they prepared the operation, who helped them, and what our security forces were doing,” said diaspora leader Dzhabrail Gakkaev, “the authorities are scared and have begun these useless passport checks.” RC
[snip]
MOSCOW GOVERNOR MULLS BAN ON MOSQUE CONSTRUCTION
“Vremya novostei” reported on 25 October that Moscow Oblast Governor Boris Gromov is considering an appeal from the Union of Russian Orthodox Citizens to ban immediately the construction of a mosque in the oblast town of Sergiev Posad. The head of the Sergiev Posad Raion told journalists no decision has yet been made and the area’s Muslim community numbers about 10,000.
[snip]
HOSTAGE TAKERS HERALD ASCENT OF CHECHNYA’S ‘LOST GENERATION’
The website zerkalo.az on 25 October quoted President Maskhadov’s representative in Azerbaijan, Ali Asaev, as stressing that the Moscow hostage takers are all young, in their early 20s. “Die Welt” quoted a friend of Movsar Baraev’s family as saying that Baraev “belongs to a generation that has never known anything but war.” Former Russian parliament speaker Ruslan Khasbulatov warned two years ago of the imminent emergence of a new generation of Chechen fighters who were born in the early 1990s and will come to maturity and join the ranks of the resistance. Those young men, Khasbulatov says, will be “cruel and merciless,” devoid of any education, speak no Russian, and acknowledge no authority, not even that of their parents and elders (see “RFE/RL Caucasus Report,” Vol. 3, No. 21, 25 May 2000)"
I’m going to crawl onto my sofa with my cat and my recently acquired copy of Anatol Lieven’s Chechnya: Tombstone of a Russian Power. At least I can fight my own ignorance, if not necessarily anyone else’s…
Would it not be in the spirit of respect for Islam, etc. to do so with a glass of wine? because I could sure use one…
I don’t get it. How could they get what they wanted, even if Russia capitulated to them?
Terrorists: We demand Russian forces leave Chechnya now.
Russia: Er… suure! You got it Jack.
Russian forces start withdrawing…
Terrorists: Cor blimey. That was easy. Ok you lot, sorry about that. You can go home now. Help yourself to the popcorn on the way out. No hard feelings, eh?
Russian forces go straight back to Chechnya…
Well, it looks like we might have our answer shortly:
Let’s hope that most of the hostages survive. And Dog, I think that the reason they took the hostages is not that they think that the Russians will leave, but to bring the war to the Russians.
OK, what about this for an idea.
They flood the theatre with some kind of sub-lethal poisonous gas. Not a sleeping gas, because that would be too slow acting, but an actual proper poison gas. Something that would knock everyone out real quick.
But a type of poison gas that people can recover from (or be cured of) as long as they receive medical help real quick.
They could have medical teams on standby so that once everyone was out cold they could rush in and save the hostages.
Some of the explosives may go off, of course, and some people will be shot, but it’s better than everyone dying.
Is there such a gas?
Well, they’ve killed two more hostages. Hmmm…perhaps Russia could threaten (by bluff, without actual intentions) to increase military presence in Chechnya, and furthermore threaten to to some irrational act to the affect of, “Level the villages of all suspected sympathizers, and leave no dissident Chechens free.” This is most obviously a double-edged sword, given that either A) it will intimidate the terrorists into surrendering to save their people or B) Smear Russia’s reputation with Chechnya even more, do nothing for the hostages, and only further evoke anger in Chechnya.
It’s a half assed proposal at best, really. Another more eccentric option would be to just abandon all public care for the victims…if the government (outwardly) displayed copious amounts of apathy for the situation, then perhaps there’d be a slight plausibility of a terrorist surrender, or more diplomacy.
But as previously noted, it’s definitely a FUBAR scenario.
To add more injury, many of the victim’s friends and relatives are starting to exhibit Stockholm Syndrome in their anti-war demonstration outside the theater. With the crisis now progressing into a third day, it’s possible that hostages within will start to evince feelings of sympathy for their captors’ cause.
Sadly, we’ll just have to wait and see.
Well, if you can dig up a Russian speaker, there are updates being posted every few minutes on www.regions.ru. In the past half hour, apparently some 50 buses have headed toward the theater, two women hostages were released, the Spetsnaz managed to free six more (unclear how this happened), the terrorists started to kill more hostages (again, no details so far)and then another 10-15 hostages were freed (again, no details on how).
Looks like things are coming to a head, big time. I don’t think it’ll be long until this all blows, one way or another (or maybe several ways simultaneously).
My ex-boyfriend was Spetsnaz in Afghanistan, as well as a North Caucasian; neither group is composed of people you’d want to have pissed off at you. I fear this will be very, very bloody.
Eva, if there are any major updates you don’t see being mentioned in Western outlets, would you mind notifying us? I, along with many others, are quite tense about the whole situation now, but information for English speakers is minimal.
Sure thing. God knows I can’t sleep with this stuff going on, so I might as well be of some use to somebody.