# Most Iraqis support attacking American troops **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 28, 2008, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/most-iraqis-support-attacking-american-troops/439506 "2008-02-28T14:43:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Baldwin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baldwin/32/7264_2.png) [@Baldwin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baldwin)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/most-iraqis-support-attacking-american-troops/439506/21 "2008-02-28T17:43:24Z")
One thing I’ve never heard from Bush, Cheney, either of Bush’s Defense Secretaries, Paul Bremer, or anybody else high up the administration, is an acknowledgement that a lot of ordinary people will just never accept a foreign military invading and occupying their country. (I remember, a couple of months after we invaded, Rumsfeld simply denying that our army, which was occupying Iraq, was an “occupying army”.) ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/most-iraqis-support-attacking-american-troops/439506/22 "2008-02-28T17:45:01Z")
[QUOTE=FoieGrasIsEvil] As an American, speaking with _other_ Americans, soldiers all, about the way they were treated by civilian Iraqis that they came into contact with and their firsthand accounts don’t jibe with the poll, which I just read, thanks for the link. Their accounts were of a hospitable, if distrustful populace, in general, with exceptions. [/QUOTE] I wonder what you’d make of a poll conducted \*over here \* which used interviewers with big scary assault rifles. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/most-iraqis-support-attacking-american-troops/439506/23 "2008-02-28T17:59:20Z")
[QUOTE=Baldwin] One thing I’ve never heard from Bush, Cheney, either of Bush’s Defense Secretaries, Paul Bremer, or anybody else high up the administration, is an acknowledgement that a lot of ordinary people will just never accept a foreign military invading and occupying their country. (I remember, a couple of months after we invaded, Rumsfeld simply denying that our army, which was occupying Iraq, was an “occupying army”.) [/QUOTE] Yes, that is surely the case. There is going to be baseline in pretty much any situation like this of people who want the occupying forces out. We’ve long overstayed our welcome, if we were ever actually welcomed. I suspect we were, to some extent, in the first heady weeks of liberation, at least among the Shiites and Kurds. What I find amazing, though, is that Sunni Arabs are so quick to want us out. Do they really think they could successfully defend themselves against the Shiites and the Sunni Kurds? I suspect that if we left tomorrow, it wouldn’t be long before they’d be asking us to come back. I can understand the emotional aspect of it, but it doesn’t take much thought to figure out what would happen. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/most-iraqis-support-attacking-american-troops/439506/24 "2008-02-28T19:17:04Z")
What is it that makes you think that it is our presence there that is preventing a disaster? If it is something that is so easily explained, why don’t you have a crack at it? Its easy enough to say, sure, things there suck, but would be a lot worse if we leave. We hear it all the time, and Serious People solemnly nod their heads in unanimous agreement. But, if I may ask, sez who? ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/most-iraqis-support-attacking-american-troops/439506/25 "2008-02-28T19:56:20Z")
[QUOTE=elucidator] What is it that makes you think that it is our presence there that is preventing a disaster? [/QUOTE] Well, [John McCain says so:](http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hF8R8-vLFKEAdVGba-TATCKgnCigD8V33GHG1) > [@](#): > > Throughout the primary season, McCain has repeatedly attacked Obama and Clinton for saying they would withdraw troops from Iraq. > > “And my friends, if we left, they (al-Qaida) wouldn’t be establishing a base,” McCain said Wednesday. “They’d be taking a country, and I’m not going to allow that to happen, my friends. I will not surrender.” What more proof could anyone want? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/most-iraqis-support-attacking-american-troops/439506/26 "2008-02-28T20:31:21Z")
[QUOTE=elucidator] What is it that makes you think that it is our presence there that is preventing a disaster? If it is something that is so easily explained, why don’t you have a crack at it? Its easy enough to say, sure, things there suck, but would be a lot worse if we leave. We hear it all the time, and Serious People solemnly nod their heads in unanimous agreement. But, if I may ask, sez who? [/QUOTE] Well, I suppose it’s possible that they will all reconcile with each other the moment we leave. The Kurds will say: Oh, what the hell, you guys can have Kirkuk afterall!! And Sadr will invite the Sunni warlords to tea. And the Sunnis will rejoice in the benevolence of their new Shiite overlords. Possible, yes. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/most-iraqis-support-attacking-american-troops/439506/27 "2008-02-28T20:46:59Z")
Yes, **John** , I am well aware that I am a fuzzy thinking lefty, who needs to be reminded of the facts by hard-headed realists, such as yourself. But I reviewed my post carefully, and see nothing that says “As soon as we leave, things will be peachy-keen.” Kindly point that out for me, if you’ve the time. Seems to me that the most dangerous flash point in this sectarian stress would be a religious outrage. Like an attack on a Shia pilgrimage, for instance. Or a prominent religious center. Both of which have happened, both of which happened while our troops were there. So how did our presence prevent them? You may claim, if you wish, that our presence prevents worse outrages from occuring. I would likely respond in the Arabic “_al-cite_?” Sez who? Can you point out any such that our presence _has_ prevented? Or is this merely conjecture masquerading as fact? ---
**Author:** ![black\_rabbit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/f19dbf/32.png) [@black\_rabbit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/black_rabbit)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/most-iraqis-support-attacking-american-troops/439506/28 "2008-02-28T20:47:42Z")
From what I’ve gathered, much of the recent “success” of the surge is actually more due to the thorough ethnic cleansing of formerly mixed neighborhoods and regions than any increase in troop strength. Something like 15% of the population has either fled abroad or is internally displaced. If you don’t count the Kurds, it’s closer to 20%. I really don’t see how things could get much worse than they already are, short of a ground invasion by Iran. I don’t think any of the internal factions have the resources to wage all-out war against each other, so a post-US Iraq (or Shiastan, Sunnistan, and Kurdistan) would look pretty much like it does now. Shia militias would still be murdering the occasional dozen of their remaining Sunni neighbors, alQ in Iraq would still be bombing the occasional Shia market, and the Kurds would still be harboring the occasional PKK guerrilla. In other words, we’ve already caused the bloodbath. Now we’re just trying to recoup our investments in it. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/most-iraqis-support-attacking-american-troops/439506/29 "2008-02-28T20:58:31Z")
[QUOTE=John Mace] What I find amazing, though, is that Sunni Arabs are so quick to want us out. Do they really think they could successfully defend themselves against the Shiites and the Sunni Kurds [/QUOTE] I suspect many _do_ believe that. I’ve seen claims that your average Sunni Arab on the street firmly believes **they are in the majority**. Really it wasn’t that long ago, historically speaking, that they actually were - possibly as late as the opening of the 20th century. Even beyond that, with Shi’a being consistently relegated to underclass status and hence a minority in any public sphere until just a few years ago, it is probably easy enough to swallow that Sunni Arabs outnumber Shi’a if you don’t live in Basra. The Sunni Arabs ( or Sunni Ottoman officials, Arabs and Turks ) ran the country sucessfully since pretty much forever and I suspect that a fair bit of unrealistic hubris has lent itself to believing they can do so again if those meddling Americans would just leave. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/most-iraqis-support-attacking-american-troops/439506/30 "2008-02-28T21:01:18Z")
[QUOTE=black rabbit] From what I’ve gathered, much of the recent “success” of the surge is actually more due to the thorough ethnic cleansing of formerly mixed neighborhoods and regions than any increase in troop strength. Something like 15% of the population has either fled abroad or is internally displaced. If you don’t count the Kurds, it’s closer to 20%. [/quote] You gathered wrong. The success of the surge is due to the Sunnis ending their alliance with al-Qaida and allying themselves with the U.S., and with Sadr placing a cease-fire on his militia (which he just recently extended). It’s true that many areas of Baghdad have become sunni-only or shiite-only, but violence is down in ALL areas, including the ones that still have a strong mix of Sunni and Shiite people. The violence that is still occuring is coming from many sources - criminals, warlords fighting warlords, reprisal killings, and the like. Some of it is Sunni against Sunni, and Shiite against Shiite. But what has been damped down to a huge degree is sectarian violence, and sectarian violence is what can kick off a civil war. > [@](#): > > I really don’t see how things could get much worse than they already are, short of a ground invasion by Iran. I don’t think any of the internal factions have the resources to wage all-out war against each other, so a post-US Iraq (or Shiastan, Sunnistan, and Kurdistan) would look pretty much like it does now. You have to be kidding. Since when do civil wars need resources? Hundreds of thousands were killed in Rwanda with _machetes_. If you don’t think things could be worse, you haven’t looked around the world. There are many countries in which things are much worse than they are in Iraq. > [@](#): > > Shia militias would still be murdering the occasional dozen of their remaining Sunni neighbors, alQ in Iraq would still be bombing the occasional Shia market, and the Kurds would still be harboring the occasional PKK guerrilla. And hordes of Sunnis could wander into a Shiite pigrimage and kill thousands. The Kurds could announce independence and keep all the oil revenues, kicking off a civil war against Sunnis and Shias. al-Qaida could wander into that fray and kick off sectarian tensions again by bombing Mosques and leaving signs that the Kurds did it. Iran could start re-arming everybody. Turkey could decide to use the opportunity to reclaim Kurdish regions. Claiming that things are already as bad as they can possibly be flies in the face of reality, but it gives you an easy ‘out’ to say the U.S. might as well leave, because they’re doing no good. But it’s just not true. > [@](#): > > In other words, we’ve already caused the bloodbath. Now we’re just trying to recoup our investments in it. Or to paraphrase Colin Powell, “We broke it, now we’re trying to fix it.” You want to leave it broken and go home. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/most-iraqis-support-attacking-american-troops/439506/31 "2008-02-28T21:03:43Z")
Sadr recently extended his cease-fire. It’s possible he would do that if we weren’t there, but I doubt it. Once the Mahdi Army gets going again, there is no reason to think things won’t be like they were in 2006 and early 2007. That is not to say that I am saying we should stay. They need to have their civil war, and they will have it next year if we leave then or 5 years from now if we leave then. It is the natural course of things for a civil war to happen in this type of situation. Anyone who thinks they’ve already had their civil war is kidding himself. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/most-iraqis-support-attacking-american-troops/439506/32 "2008-02-28T22:24:34Z")
[QUOTE=Tamerlane] I suspect many _do_ believe that. I’ve seen claims that your average Sunni Arab on the street firmly believes **they are in the majority**. Really it wasn’t that long ago, historically speaking, that they actually were - possibly as late as the opening of the 20th century. Even beyond that, with Shi’a being consistently relegated to underclass status and hence a minority in any public sphere until just a few years ago, it is probably easy enough to swallow that Sunni Arabs outnumber Shi’a if you don’t live in Basra. The Sunni Arabs ( or Sunni Ottoman officials, Arabs and Turks ) ran the country sucessfully since pretty much forever and I suspect that a fair bit of unrealistic hubris has lent itself to believing they can do so again if those meddling Americans would just leave. [/QUOTE] That’s actually what I was thinking-- that the only explanation that makes sense is a sort of delusional belief that they could take on the Shi’a. And, of course, they’d have to think they could take on the Kurds, too. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/most-iraqis-support-attacking-american-troops/439506/33 "2008-02-28T22:36:40Z")
[Iraq Veterans Against the War | You are not alone](http://ivaw.org/index.php) Do not speak for all the soldiers. There are a lot who want out but feel responsible for their fellow soldiers. Ask them if the want to go home and go on with their lives. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 11:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/most-iraqis-support-attacking-american-troops/439506/34 "2008-02-28T23:03:03Z")
[QUOTE=John Mace] the only explanation that makes sense is a sort of delusional belief that they could take on the Shi’a. And, of course, they’d have to think they could take on the Kurds, too. [/QUOTE] Is such a belief on their part really all that far beyond the realm of the possible? After all, they managed to hold down the Shi’a for decades prior to our invasion. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/most-iraqis-support-attacking-american-troops/439506/35 "2008-02-28T23:06:57Z")
[QUOTE=Squink] Is such a belief on their part really all that far beyond the realm of the possible? After all, they managed to hold down the Shi’a for decades prior to our invasion. [/QUOTE] But they no longer have control of the machinery of the state and the weapons that go along with it. They no longer have control of oil revenue to buy the weapons they would need. In fact, if they tried to mount anything close to an uprising, the Shi’a majority would cut off oil revenues. Remember, most of the oil fields are in Shi’a or Kurdish areas. They be fucked. They = the Sunni Arabs. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 11:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/most-iraqis-support-attacking-american-troops/439506/36 "2008-02-28T23:20:03Z")
[QUOTE=John Mace] But they no longer have control of the machinery of the state… [/QUOTE] Sure, they’d probably get their asses kicked, I’m just saying that it’s not hard to see how the Sunnis might entertain such a notion; glories of the past and all. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/most-iraqis-support-attacking-american-troops/439506/37 "2008-02-28T23:28:04Z")
OK. I interpreted your first sentence as saying you thought it was possible. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/most-iraqis-support-attacking-american-troops/439506/38 "2008-02-28T23:32:30Z")
[QUOTE=Sam Stone] You gathered wrong. The success of the surge is due to the Sunnis ending their alliance with al-Qaida and allying themselves with the U.S., and with Sadr placing a cease-fire on his militia (which he just recently extended)… [/quote] Well, that certainly settles _that_! So the surge is the source of these marvelous developments? There was no movement of the Sunni away from AlQ before this happy event? And your keen insight into the motives and intentions of al-Sadr, this will serve as your cite for your assertion about the cease-fire? > [@](#): > > …Claiming that things are already as bad as they can possibly be flies in the face of reality, but it gives you an easy ‘out’ to say the U.S. might as well leave, because they’re doing no good. But it’s just not true… Yes, things could be worse, and have been. But so far you’ve not answered the fundamental question: where is the cause and effect? Why should we believe that it is the presence of our troops that keeps things from getting worse, any more than we should believe they keep things from getting better? Your certainty would be far more reassuring if you could offer something to base it on, other than your interpretation of events that have several, if not many, different possible interpretations. > [@](#): > > …You want to leave it broken and go home. Yes. I do. Unless I can be convinced that our continuing sacrifice is anything more than a futile form of penance, yes, I do. If we can fix it, we should, if we cannot, we must go. Enough have suffered for the stupidity and stubborn optimism of our leaders and their supporters. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/most-iraqis-support-attacking-american-troops/439506/39 "2008-02-28T23:40:08Z")
[QUOTE=elucidator] Yes. I do. Unless I can be convinced that our continuing sacrifice is anything more than a futile form of penance, yes, I do. If we can fix it, we should, if we cannot, we must go. Enough have suffered for the stupidity and stubborn optimism of our leaders and their supporters. [/QUOTE] BTW, I agree with you here. As I said above, I did not mean to imply that I thought we should stay just because I thought the Sunnis would be worse off if we left. It sucks to be them, to put it bluntly. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2008, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/most-iraqis-support-attacking-american-troops/439506/40 "2008-02-28T23:40:28Z")
The Sunni might be willing to take on the Shia if they believe that they are subject to an intolerable oppression. Or if they believe that God is on their side in their struggle against a heretical sect. Or if the believe that the Sunni majority of the Muslim world will rally to their cause. Or, if they believe that such a war would drag Iran in on the Shia side. Which might make the US available to do the heavy killing. Would neatly dispose of the equipment problem, wouldn’t it? Would sure offer a convenient reason for the neo-con loons to take on Iran, no? So, no, I don’t see any reason to believe that the Sunni regard such a conflict as unwinnable and futile. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/most-iraqis-support-attacking-american-troops/439506.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/most-iraqis-support-attacking-american-troops/439506.md?page=3)