# Motivation for July 13th Trump shooting: speculation, conjecture, moving to evidence supported hypothesis **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [July 14, 2024, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219 "2024-07-14T20:07:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/1 "2024-07-14T20:07:15Z")
Thread devoted to motives of the accused and deceased Trump shooter, Thomas Matthew Crooks of Bethel Park, Pennsylvania. My take: > [@Thread for Discussion of Political Ramifications of Trump Injury from Shooting at the Butler, PA Rally](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thread-for-discussion-of-political-ramifications-of-trump-injury-from-shooting-at-the-butler-pa-rally/1004185/228): > > Discussion of motivation of this incident. Mods, please create a new thread if you deem it appropriate. In the US, this is the case. In Europe, political is more common than crazy. So we can’t rule out political. Note that Trump sent out an email saying there was going to be a huge announcement yesterday, with the usual incendiary rhetoric. So it sounded like he was promising (ha!) a VP announcement. There’s a section of the far-right that wants Flynn slotted in as VP and needless to say they… > [@Trump bloody after shots fired at a Trump Rally {Try and keep this factual/Breaking News}](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-bloody-after-shots-fired-at-a-trump-rally-try-and-keep-this-factual-breaking-news/1004162/384): > > Trump biographer Seth Abramson stresses that FBI agents need to keep an open mind when searching the home of a suspected Republican assassin of former President Trump. Abramson notes there was far-right discussion among Trump’s AZ delegates to choose someone other that Trump for the presidency, due to concerns that Trump was too close to deep state operatives. Sheesh this is like a bad airport novel. Gifted article: [https://wapo.st/3zCWN3X](https://wapo.st/3zCWN3X) Twitter thread: Another link: We’re here to fight ignorance, so all posters lose 3 internets for unsubstantiated claims that are not clearly labeled as such. [![](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:kem5cevl5sjpizk4s27cbyig/bafkreidheo7waeoo3m5dmix5thspvkcesirevhbqugndw4v6pvg2ewdcbi@jpeg) ](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:kem5cevl5sjpizk4s27cbyig/bafkreidheo7waeoo3m5dmix5thspvkcesirevhbqugndw4v6pvg2ewdcbi@jpeg) ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/2 "2024-07-14T20:48:25Z")
My money’s on rejected loser. Possibly deeper mental problems than that but I that’s the usual forward motivation. ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/3 "2024-07-14T20:50:29Z")
There is an association with gun violence and domestic abuse. (Hence the idea of banning firearms from those who have been so convicted). I wonder if the shooter also has that in his history. ---
**Author:** ![Quondam\_Mechanic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quondam_mechanic/32/3404_2.png) [@Quondam\_Mechanic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quondam_Mechanic)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/4 "2024-07-14T20:53:30Z")
I doubt it has anything to do with this incident, but not acknowledging a loss at the ballot is kind of an invitation to get yourself kept out of office by more undebatable means. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/5 "2024-07-14T21:03:19Z")
My guess is that we’ll learn he saw himself as a champion of “Babies” (see also zygotes and embryos). And Trump’s recent efforts to assure moderate voters that he wouldn’t go for a federal ban on abortion, angered the kid. As I’ve said in another thread, I would like to see a thorough investigation address the possibility that the kid was vulnerable to manipulation on this topic, and that some person or persons did indeed play on this. But I’m betting it’s “defender of the unborn” that was the self-image motivating Crooks. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/6 "2024-07-14T21:12:42Z")
Some facts: The rally was announced on July 3rd, 10 days before the shooting. One bystander was killed. The accused is a 20 year old male resident of Pennsylvania. His resident city of Bethel Park is 53 miles and 1 hour 10 minutes by car from the shooting location. Bethel Park is a suburb of Pittsburg in western Pennsylvania, and has a population of 34,000. AP says he was a nursing home employee. [![](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:kem5cevl5sjpizk4s27cbyig/bafkreicqpv3jbpwlj76godtqaoem2nkfnjh7kvgih7oq3bmje2bbvryib4@jpeg) ](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:kem5cevl5sjpizk4s27cbyig/bafkreicqpv3jbpwlj76godtqaoem2nkfnjh7kvgih7oq3bmje2bbvryib4@jpeg) That dotted line is the Ohio border. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/7 "2024-07-14T21:14:53Z")
I’m going with false flag. Biden’s been dominating the headlines, and the Trump camp needed something big to get back on the front page. Bingo. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/8 "2024-07-14T21:20:01Z")
As in, someone convinced him to shoot _near_ Trump, promising a pardon after Trump was elected, then made sure he wouldn’t talk afterwards? Not buying it…just yet. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/9 "2024-07-14T21:22:37Z")
Is there an option for we will never know? ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/10 "2024-07-14T21:28:00Z")
I do fear this is likely. But I am hoping that the investigation will be a real one, and that we can at least approach ruling out some possibilities. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/11 "2024-07-14T21:34:35Z")
From [journalist Robert Evans](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Evans_(journalist)), online researcher on twitter, former editor of [cracked.com](http://cracked.com) and contributor to Bellingcat. Accused probably contributed to scammy progressive PAC in Jan 2021, and registered as a Republican 8 months later. Father was a registered Libertarian Party member. Accused rejected from high school rifle club due to poor marksmanship. The shot would be a challenging one to do in a combat situation, easy for a marine who is not under stress, not 100% for a typical hobbyist on a range. We won’t ever know whether the accused was aiming for the head or heart. NY Post is going with the bullied loner angle, but also quotes a former classmate as saying, “He didn’t seem like really weird or anything. I would have pegged him as a Republican,” while another stated, “He never outwardly spoke about his political views or how much he hated Trump or anything”. A third said he had a few friends but not a full friend group. I say wait a few days before drawing conclusions. IMHO, a Trump-sponsored false flag scenario has minuscule probability. Recruiting loser assassins without a huge risk of getting caught is basically impossible. > [@DSeid](#): > > Is there an option for we will never know? No, we can rule that out. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Dallas\_Jones](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dallas_jones/32/3277_2.png) [@Dallas\_Jones](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dallas_Jones)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/12 "2024-07-14T21:35:18Z")
Unpopular an unemployed, basement gamer. Who stole his dad’s gun, in the hope of being noticed. ---
**Author:** ![Mama\_Zappa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/71e660/32.png) [@Mama\_Zappa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mama_Zappa)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/13 "2024-07-14T21:45:27Z")
> [@Akaj](#): > > I’m going with false flag. Biden’s been dominating the headlines, and the Trump camp needed something big to get back on the front page. Bingo. Given that Biden’s coverage lately has been quite negative, I would argue that suggestion. But the world is a strange place, so you never know. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/14 "2024-07-14T21:56:59Z")
I’m still going with “crazy person did it for reasons that are incomprehensible to any sane person”. Though I’m surprised at the lack of manifesto. Whether his reasons were sane or not, usually the kind of person who does something as extreme as assassination also goes to some effort to publicize their reasons. Maybe the lack of manifesto points to him thinking that he’d (somehow) be able to get away from the scene of the crime, and he didn’t want anything to connect him to it after he got away? That’s… sane, I suppose, but stupid. ---
**Author:** ![Max\_S](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/46a35a/32.png) [@Max\_S](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Max_S)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/15 "2024-07-14T21:59:20Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Though I’m surprised at the lack of manifesto. Or there was one, and for once it isn’t being publicized the day after? ~Max ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/16 "2024-07-14T22:01:21Z")
This is the kind of thing a certain species of American gun nut does when all the schools are closed. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/17 "2024-07-14T22:07:35Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > I’m still going with “crazy person did it for reasons that are incomprehensible to any sane person”. FWIW, my needle has shifted in this direction since my reply in the other thread 3 hours ago. I still believe that FBI investigators need to keep an open mind when searching through the accused’s belongings. We’re used to seeing lone crazies doing crazy things, but it’s possible that this guy was 4chan enabled or had other online links to the violent right. That’s not where the evidence is going at present but it’s far too soon to rule out major possibilities. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/18 "2024-07-14T22:16:47Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > I’m still going with “crazy person did it for reasons that are incomprehensible to any sane person”. This is invariably the best guess, because it’s usually this. Well, the reasons are sometimes _mildly_ comprehensible. Lee Harvey Oswald? Troubled loser. Mark David Chapman? Troubled loser. Squeaky Fromme? Troubled loser. Charles Guiteau? Troubled loser. Most spree killers? Sirhan Sirhan? Troubled losers. ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/19 "2024-07-14T22:24:03Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > I’m still going with “crazy person did it for reasons that are incomprehensible to any sane person”. When these kinds of things happen that’s kind of my assumption as well. My immediate thought was that this was most likely the work of someone who was mentally unhinged and certainly not a part of some coordinated effort. But then I also thought it wouldn’t take long for those in the MAGAsphere to start blaming Biden either directly or indirectly. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2024, 10:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/20 "2024-07-14T22:37:40Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Is there an option for we will never know? If there is, don’t you think we would have mentioned it? 😁 [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219.md?page=2)