# Motivation for July 13th Trump shooting: speculation, conjecture, moving to evidence supported hypothesis **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [July 14, 2024, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219 "2024-07-14T20:07:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2024, 12:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/41 "2024-07-15T12:57:15Z")
> [@Crane](#): > > Gasp - can you imagine the spectacle of a Trump funeral I’ll bring the balloons and party favors. Gonna need help with the hors d’oeuvres > [@Akaj](#): > > I’m going with false flag. Biden’s been dominating the headlines, and the Trump camp needed something big to get back on the front page. Bingo. No way this was a false flag, unless, possibly Trump really wasn’t hit. Any pictures of Trump in public? You can bandage anything of course. But I’m afraid this was the real deal. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2024, 1:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/42 "2024-07-15T13:11:21Z")
> [@enipla](#): > > No way this was a false flag, unless, possibly Trump really wasn’t hit. A staged assassination attempt would have to get pretty close to the target to be believable. If Trump’s ear wound was from flying teleprompter glass, that would track. It’s also possible he wasn’t in on the stunt. He could never keep it a secret if he was. ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2024, 1:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/43 "2024-07-15T13:49:44Z")
> [@Akaj](#): > > A staged assassination attempt would have to get pretty close to the target to be believable. Agree. NOBODY is gonna trust even the best marksman in the world to shoot your ear from 400 feet away. And besides a little wind gust or a movement of the ‘target’ it would still be incredibly risky. ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2024, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/44 "2024-07-15T13:58:42Z")
I’m pretty sure that this guy fits the “school shooter” type profile. School shooters get their names in the paper. This guy was going for the history books. ---
**Author:** ![DWMarch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dwmarch/32/1010_2.png) [@DWMarch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DWMarch)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2024, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/45 "2024-07-15T15:49:28Z")
> [@Si\_Amigo](#): > > The fact that he made it far as he did must have been a shock to him > [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](#): > > He was bullied by the very republicans who were supposed to accept him because he was a trump supporter. So he decided he’d “show them” by killing some supporters It would be kind of funny if the shooter’s intended target was the crowd and he couldn’t believe his luck when he climbed onto a random roof and ended up with line of sight to the stage. There won’t be a manifesto if it was just a crime of opportunity. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2024, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/46 "2024-07-15T16:38:24Z")
I’m willing to go with why can’t it be both. Maladjusted loner conservative Libertarian type with low self esteem, recognizes that Trump is a danger to freedom, donates to blue PAC, then when he sees Trump is coming to his neighborhood decides to take matters into his own hands, save the country and be a hero for once. In any case, I definitely subscribe to the loan gunman theory. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2024, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/47 "2024-07-15T16:58:29Z")
> [@Akaj](#): > > I’m going with false flag. Biden’s been dominating the headlines, and the Trump camp needed something big to get back on the front page. Bingo. If the Trump camp wanted to do a false flag, why would they choose a gunman who’s a registered Republican? Why not have it be some liberal communist transgender feminist Antifa shooter wearing a T-shirt saying Biden-Harris? ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2024, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/48 "2024-07-15T17:04:48Z")
Harris-_Biden_. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2024, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/49 "2024-07-15T17:06:33Z")
A thought: We’re hearing that he was kicked out of his high school rifle club for being a poor shot. But I’m not sure what the source of that information was, and it might have been garbled. What if the actual reason he got kicked out of the club was that he wasn’t following basic gun safety rules, but he thought (and told, for instance, his dad) that it was because he wasn’t a good enough shot? And then wanted to prove to the world just how good a shot he was, by hitting the ultimate target? ---
**Author:** ![CoolHandCox](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/coolhandcox/32/16233_2.png) [@CoolHandCox](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CoolHandCox)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2024, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/50 "2024-07-15T17:20:21Z")
He was a kid. Born in 2004. I imagine his motivations, whatever they might be, would have been fleeting. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2024, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/51 "2024-07-15T17:47:25Z")
TPM reports on readers who think the profile fits that of a school shooter more than a Presidential assassin. [Example](https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/the-school-shooter-profile). Reports say the accused had bombmaking materials in his car, so that suggests to me mayhem more than targeted planning. Reports that the accused was bullied are based on a single characterization. [At least one other interview conflicts with that](https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/thomas-matthew-crooks-classmates-trump-rally-shooting). Consensus among interviewed classmates seems to be that the kid was quiet. He won a math and science award during his senior year and helped others with their homework. (That last part raises an eyebrow with me - it’s plausible that kids possibly copied his homework with some regularity.) > Jason Kohler, another former classmate, told a local news station that Crooks was known for wearing “hunting” gear and that he was “relentlessly” bullied at school. Dudjak said those quotes, which have [made headlines](https://nypost.com/2024/07/14/us-news/trump-shooter-thomas-matthew-crooks-was-bullied-loner-classmate/), did not match his recollection of Crooks. Other than “a camo jacket for the wintertime,” Dudjak said Crooks “always” wore “a t-shirt and blue jeans.” He also did not recall his classmate being bullied. > “I had gone to school with him for, what, 14 years of my life or something like that,” said Dudjak. “I’d never seen anyone get bullied at Bethel Park High School really. … Maybe cyber bullying online, but again, he had no social media. He was not part of that. … I do not think he was bullied. … I could be mistaken … but I spoke to some of my friends about it, we never saw it visibly with our own eyes or heard of it.” Pennsylvania does not have safe-storage gun laws, so it’s easy to see how a perp could get ahold of an AR-15 from a relative, in this case his father. Chronos’ speculation that the gun club characterizations contained euphemism is supported by the evidence. As originally reported by ABC News: > Myers and another student said that Crooks tried to join the high school’s rifle team but was rejected and asked not to return after a “preseason” session. > “He didn’t just not make the team, he was asked not to come back because how bad of a shot he was, it was considered like, dangerous,” said Myers. For context, I’ll remind the board that [the psycho-interpretation of the Colombine shooting changed substantially years later](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2004/04/at-last-we-know-why-the-columbine-killers-did-it.html). The accused may have had a small number of friends, none of whom have been identified by the press so far. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2024, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/52 "2024-07-15T17:47:51Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > > [@Akaj](#): > > > > I’m going with false flag. Biden’s been dominating the headlines, and the Trump camp needed something big to get back on the front page. Bingo. > > If the Trump camp wanted to do a false flag, why would they choose a gunman who’s a registered Republican? Why not have it be some liberal communist transgender feminist Antifa shooter wearing a T-shirt saying Biden-Harris? Because that would be too obvious. And notice how they’re blaming Biden and the Dems anyway? ---
**Author:** ![alphaboi867](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alphaboi867/32/3898_2.png) [@alphaboi867](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alphaboi867)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2024, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/53 "2024-07-15T19:31:49Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > As in, someone convinced him to shoot _near_ Trump, promising a pardon after Trump was elected, then made sure he wouldn’t talk afterwards? Not buying it…just yet. As perfectly as this assassination attempt seems to be going for Trump it’s absurd to think this was a false flag operation. Trump really was injured and the bullet was inches away from being a headshot. The risk of “success” is far too high and too many people would need to be in on conspiracy. Even if the plan was for the Secret Service to find the shooter before he pulled the trigger Trump would never take a risk like that. Occam’s razor; this is going to turn out to be just another case of a distrurbed loan gunman and a spectacular security failure by the Secret Service. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2024, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/54 "2024-07-16T00:47:31Z")
> [@alphaboi867](#): > > a spectacular security failure by the Secret Service. Yet another, indeed. [Here’s a Business Insider article](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-shooting-assassination-attempt-secret-service-past-scandals-2024-7) that goes into how badly the Secret Service has screwed up in the last decade or so. It appears the agency needs a thorough reaming out. ---
**Author:** ![Kyomara](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/8edcca/32.png) [@Kyomara](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kyomara)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2024, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/55 "2024-07-16T02:20:24Z")
I think you’re in solid territory here. In my experience incidents that conspiracy theorists suspect of being “false flags” have a very high likelihood of turning out to be just that. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2024, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/56 "2024-07-16T02:44:34Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > A thought: We’re hearing that he was kicked out of his high school rifle club for being a poor shot. But I’m not sure what the source of that information was, and it might have been garbled. What if the actual reason he got kicked out of the club was that he wasn’t following basic gun safety rules, but he thought (and told, for instance, his dad) that it was because he wasn’t a good enough shot? And then wanted to prove to the world just how good a shot he was, by hitting the ultimate target? That sounds right to me. My guess is this was a disturbed loser who wanted to prove to the world he wasn’t really a loser. He was seemingly too deluded to realize his chosen course of action had no chance of actually proving that. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2024, 4:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/57 "2024-07-16T04:03:05Z")
> [@EddyTeddyFreddy](#): > > Yet another, indeed. [Here’s a Business Insider article](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-shooting-assassination-attempt-secret-service-past-scandals-2024-7) that goes into how badly the Secret Service has screwed up in the last decade or so. It appears the agency needs a thorough reaming out. Looking the agency up on the Internet, it says that they have 8,300 people. I’d view it the way that I view coffee. The best bean is just one bean out of 40 trillion grown that year. The best 10,000 are only going to make so many cups and, if you’re not drinking one of those cups, then you’re just plain drinking worse cups of coffee. A company that wants to sell the absolute premium beans can’t also be Starbucks or Folgers or some other major coffee producer for the masses. You can’t both “have the best” and also have enough to cover the majority of everyone. If you can do that then, by definition, you only have average beans. The Secret Service can only be the best and most serious if they have a fairly small force of people. Once you’re staffing up into the thousands, it’s just a lot harder. But, I’d assume that as time has gone on, they’ve gained more stuff that they need to do, more people they need to protect, and they’ve had to staff up to cover it all. And, likely, they can’t jettison any of that without changing the law. ---
**Author:** ![Mike\_Mabes](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mike_mabes/32/1782_2.png) [@Mike\_Mabes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mike_Mabes)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2024, 7:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/58 "2024-07-16T07:56:07Z")
> **[Demolition Ranch YouTuber: ‘Shocked and confused’ to see Trump shooter...](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/15/business/demolition-ranch-shirt-trump-shooter/index.html)** > > Thomas Matthew Crooks, the 20-year-old who opened fire on former President Donald Trump during a campaign rally Saturday in Pennsylvania, was pictured twice wearing a t-shirt that said “Demolition Ranch” on it. I had never heard of the show, it’s for gun enthusiasts and Crook’s father had a lot of guns. Doesn’t explain why he shot at Trump. Maybe if Biden had been in town he would have shot at him. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2024, 8:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/59 "2024-07-16T08:00:30Z")
And even the best get bored or complacent and make mistakes. I know if I were Biden i’d be asking the head of the SS. to look into it very closely. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2024, 11:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/60 "2024-07-16T11:54:42Z")
> [@Kyomara](#): > > I think you’re in solid territory here. In my experience incidents that conspiracy theorists suspect of being “false flags” have a very high likelihood of turning out to be just that. That is some seriously wacky thinking. CTers accuse _everything_ of being a false flag. And only a teeny percentage (0.05%?) of all events are actually false flags. Have false flags occurred in history? Yes; yes they have. Are they the way to bet in _any_ event, much less in _every_ event? Hell no. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219.md?page=4)