# Motivation for July 13th Trump shooting: speculation, conjecture, moving to evidence supported hypothesis **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [July 14, 2024, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219 "2024-07-14T20:07:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2024, 11:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/61 "2024-07-16T11:55:59Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > Looking the agency up on the Internet, it says that they have 8,300 people. The part of the Secret Service that takes care of the President and the candidate(s) is a pretty small subset of that total. And probably the pretty well hand-picked better beans. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2024, 12:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/62 "2024-07-16T12:15:57Z")
> [@Kyomara](#): > > I think you’re in solid territory here. In my experience incidents that conspiracy theorists suspect of being “false flags” have a very high likelihood of turning out to be just that. Claiming that an assassination attempt is was a false flag is like claiming that an election was stolen - you’ll need a lot of ironclad physical evidence to even get me to consider the possibility. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2024, 12:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/63 "2024-07-16T12:47:25Z")
Also remember that not all of those 8,300 Secret Service agents are bodyguards. Some of them have purely administrative positions, and do things like setting the shift schedule, or calling up other agencies to make arrangements. And a lot of them are probably in the Secret Service’s other role, of catching counterfeiters. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2024, 1:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/64 "2024-07-16T13:18:23Z")
> [@Kyomara](#): > > I think you’re in solid territory here. In my experience incidents that conspiracy theorists suspect of being “false flags” have a very high likelihood of turning out to be just that. > [@LSLGuy](#): > > That is some seriously wacky thinking. > > CTers accuse _everything_ of being a false flag. And only a teeny percentage (0.05%?) of all events are actually false flags. > [@Alessan](#): > > Claiming that an assassination attempt is was a false flag is like claiming that an election was stolen - you’ll need a lot of ironclad physical evidence to even get me to consider the possibility. I’m pretty sure @Kyomara was whooshing me. And yes, I’ve been having a little fun with my false flag conspiracy theory, in part because I’m a huge [James Ellroy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underworld_USA_Trilogy) fan. But just hear me out: - Trump would _not_ have been in on it. - If the attempt fails, it still gets Biden off the front page. - If the attempt succeeds, it clears the way for a President Vance or someone equally despicable who’ll crush Biden and enact the 2025 Project without Trump screwing everything up. But in reality I’m sure the gunman was a lone nut. ---
**Author:** ![XOldiesJock](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/ec9cab/32.png) [@XOldiesJock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XOldiesJock)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2024, 1:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/65 "2024-07-16T13:35:33Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > _My guess is this was a disturbed loser who wanted to prove to the world he wasn’t really a loser. He was seemingly too deluded to realize his chosen course of action had no chance of actually proving that._ I’m just an armchair psychiatrist, but… I’ve wondered if the shooter’s goal was suicide-by-police and he never planned to walk away, and if this boils down to issues with his gun fetishist father. By committing this deed, and then dying, he would forever brand his old man as the father of the guy who assassinated Trump, whom his father probably idolized. Everything I’ve read thus far about this young man would seem to indicate there might have been Daddy issues at work here. ---
**Author:** ![OldOlds](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a3d4f5/32.png) [@OldOlds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldOlds)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2024, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/66 "2024-07-16T14:05:10Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > Reports that the accused was bullied are based on a single characterization. [At least one other interview conflicts with that](https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/thomas-matthew-crooks-classmates-trump-rally-shooting). I’d take all of it with a grain of salt. If he was bullied, then all the bullies and the school that allowed it don’t look great now. I wouldn’t be surprised if after the fact nobody wants to acknowledge that. I’m not saying this IS the case, just that I wouldn’t be surprised. When I was in High School there was a kid who was relentlessly bullied. But when he was killed in a car accident senior year, suddenly everyone loved him. The very people who were cruel to him every day were crying over his death. That left a lasting impression on me. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2024, 2:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/67 "2024-07-16T14:09:12Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > So as to infamy, the kid 95% flubbed that too. I’ve always found it odd that while most educated people know who John Wilkes Booth and Lee Harvey Oswald were, even pretty smart people will be stumped if you ask them who Charles Guiteau and Leon Czolgosz were. I am not sure which category Crooks would have fallen into. ---
**Author:** ![snowthx](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowthx/32/10660_2.png) [@snowthx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snowthx)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2024, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/68 "2024-07-16T14:29:03Z")
> [@XOldiesJock](#): > > I’ve wondered if the shooter’s goal was suicide-by-police and he never planned to walk away, and if this boils down to issues with his gun fetishist father Just a check on this. Do we know how many guns the father owned? Because a dozen or so shouldn’t tick the “fetishist” label. AIUI many, many gun owners have multiple guns, plus hundreds of rounds of ammo (if not thousands), but you never hear about the responsible ones who properly lock-up and store these things. The media seems to up-play the number of guns and amount of ammo, but I am not sure it’s unusual. I am not a gun owner, BTW and not defending the father in any way. Just looking for facts. ---
**Author:** ![ftg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ftg/32/2801_2.png) [@ftg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ftg)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2024, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/69 "2024-07-16T14:34:21Z")
"I’d never seen anyone get bullied at Bethel Park High School really. … " That’s one classmate I’m not going to believe for one second. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2024, 2:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/70 "2024-07-16T14:38:10Z")
> [@snowthx](#): > > Do we know how many guns the father owned? Because a dozen or so shouldn’t tick the “fetishist” label. Seriously? 12 guns seems like a lot to me. Not that it’s unheard of or anything, but I’d say if you own 12 guns, you’re _into guns._ What’s the line to be a fetishist? I don’t know. I’d say 6. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2024, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/71 "2024-07-16T14:41:02Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > I am not sure which category Crooks would have fallen into. He loses points because he didn’t succeed but makes them up because Trump’s fame (notoriety) has much longer legs than Garfield’s or McKinley’s ---
**Author:** ![zimaane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/a3d4f5/32.png) [@zimaane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zimaane)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2024, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/72 "2024-07-16T15:20:17Z")
From what I recall of a National Geographic documentary (or something similar) a young agent who joins the Secret Service is assigned to counterfeit investigation duty to begin with, and can then try for a promotion to bodyguard duty after some years. So in theory the agents guarding the President should be the cream of the crop. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2024, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/73 "2024-07-16T15:22:47Z")
> [@zimaane](#): > > So in theory the agents guarding the President should be the cream of the crop. The current president, perhaps. Maybe not so much a former president. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2024, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/74 "2024-07-16T15:36:27Z")
I’d say 3. Twelve seems like an insane number. ---
**Author:** ![Jim1](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jim1/32/16477_2.png) [@Jim1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jim1)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2024, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/75 "2024-07-16T15:40:50Z")
I have no inside information that gives me better insight than anyone else, but I have spent many years as a high level consultant to DOJ and USSS and am very familiar with their operations. For a while, I worked very closely with a man who was on presidential protective details for most of his career. So, my take is this: The shooter was apparently a bit of a loner and outcast in school. Rejected by the rifle team, which explains the miss. Just what inspired him to climb a roof and shoot may never be known, but people who are isolated often become obsessed with something they build up in their own mind. Perhaps he thought he would be the ultimate “patriot” as Trump himself defined it? Did he think this would make him a hero? or just get noticed? My conjecture is that he was a dissappointed and disaffected Republican seriously stressed by the candidacy of Donald J. Trump. I doubt he gave any of the outcome much thought. He might have expected to survive, but not much more. He must have done a bit of planning, to drive from his home with a rifle stolen from his father. We may find that he made a prior trip to scout the area and choose - or even prepare - his location. From that spot, a good marksman would have surely killed Trump. Consider what Lee Harvey Oswald did to JFK in a moving automobile. Thomas Crooks clearly “missed” his opportunity, despite multiple shots. Could this be a publicity stunt set-up by Trump? That’s absurd for many reasons. If nothing else, there’s not a chance in hell that Mr. Bone Spur would arrange for a lousy marksman to shoot at his ear. So, what about the Secret Service. I think they may have gotten a bit complacent, but more likely, simply overworked. Trump holds rallys all over the place in venues such as this, with wild crowds both pro and con. Each time, they have to go through the same extensive preparations to safeguard him. When dignitaries ride motorcades through DC, Secret Service even blocks the street drains along the route. Sooner or later, with all these rallies in varied locations, they are going to make a mistake and overlook _something_. And IF, coincidentally, someone like Crooks gets lucky and finds an opening, they’'ll get a rare chance at their target. Conspiracy? No… just the result of mathematical probabilities. If you keep creating opportunities for a mistake, a mistake is bound to occur eventually. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2024, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/76 "2024-07-16T15:58:48Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > I’ve always found it odd that while most educated people know who John Wilkes Booth and Lee Harvey Oswald were, even pretty smart people will be stumped if you ask them who Charles Guiteau and Leon Czolgosz were. I am not sure which category Crooks would have fallen into. Probably the same category that Squeaky Fromme and Sarah Jane Moore ended up in. Hinckley is more remembered because of his obsession with a certain female celebrity. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2024, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/77 "2024-07-16T16:11:15Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > I’ve always found it odd that while most educated people know who John Wilkes Booth and Lee Harvey Oswald were, even pretty smart people will be stumped if you ask them who Charles Guiteau and Leon Czolgosz were Unless they’re [Sondheim](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassins_(musical)) fans, of course. ---
**Author:** ![snowthx](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowthx/32/10660_2.png) [@snowthx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snowthx)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2024, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/78 "2024-07-16T16:15:55Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > Seriously? 12 guns seems like a lot to me. Not that it’s unheard of or anything, but I’d say if you own 12 guns, you’re _into guns._ What’s the line to be a fetishist? I don’t know. I’d say 6. That’s why I am asking. To a non-gun owner, one or two “seems” like enough and yeah six “seems” like a lot, but we need a few gun owners here on the board to chime-in. ---
**Author:** ![Mk\_VII](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Mk\_VII](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mk_VII)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2024, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/79 "2024-07-16T16:24:06Z")
You could try playing a round of golf with just one club. But you wouldn’t do very well. ---
**Author:** ![Toxylon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f05b48/32.png) [@Toxylon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Toxylon)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2024, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/80 "2024-07-16T16:31:45Z")
One or two guns is pretty minimalist. Just for various hunting activities plus some target action on the side (for example), four or five guns is what you most likely have. If you have any collecting genes, a dozen adds up really fast. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219.md?page=5)