# Motivation for July 13th Trump shooting: speculation, conjecture, moving to evidence supported hypothesis **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [July 14, 2024, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219 "2024-07-14T20:07:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2024, 9:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/101 "2024-07-17T09:55:18Z")
As an interesting note: Trump’s security has been recently increased after reports of possible assassination threats from Iran. I am not at all suggesting that they were involved in this incident. > **[Trump security boosted weeks ago over Iran plot to kill him](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cml2w8knjryo)** > > There is no link between the plot and Saturday's attack, but disclosure raises questions over how a gunman got so close. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2024, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/102 "2024-07-17T16:42:04Z")
Oh, brother – security boosted and this nearly successful attempt still happened? What were they on alert for – a couple of swarthy bearded guys? ---
**Author:** ![Slithy\_Tove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slithy_tove/32/18248_2.png) [@Slithy\_Tove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slithy_Tove)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2024, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/103 "2024-07-17T16:48:24Z")
Where’d the tip come from? [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/k2beu8dm0dQ/maxresdefault.jpg "I think they're Iranians.") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2beu8dm0dQ) ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 11:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/104 "2024-07-18T11:17:03Z")
There have already been videos and pictures shared suggesting that Trump was never wounded. Why? Either calling it a false flag or that Trump is too tough? > **[Old video and photos recirculate, falsely claiming Trump wasn't injured in...](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-video-photos-false-claims-shooting/)** > > Old images of former President Donald Trump were recirculated on social media in the days after his attempted assassination​ to push false claims about his condition. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 11:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/105 "2024-07-18T11:23:07Z")
> [@Love\_Rhombus](#): > > Why? The important thing the Russians are trying to achieve is to make it so no American believes there is any such thing as truth or fact. Everything is opinion, everything is unreliable. Separately, the false flag narrative says nobody would want to harm Our Savior. And the “he wasn’t wounded” narrative suggests Our Savior is invincibly tough; a real Superman. Both of which play into the idea that the audience should vote for Our Savior. Lastly, remember that every time anyone clicks on anything or re-shares anything, somebody makes money. So just keep churning out stuff for people to click on and you too can make money. It need not be any deeper than that. And in many cases it _isn’t_ deeper than that. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 11:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/106 "2024-07-18T11:42:13Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Lastly, remember that every time anyone clicks on anything or re-shares anything, somebody makes money. So just keep churning out stuff for people to click on and you too can make money. It need not be any deeper than that. And in many cases it _isn’t_ deeper than that. And what could be more American than that? ---
**Author:** ![OldOlds](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a3d4f5/32.png) [@OldOlds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldOlds)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/107 "2024-07-18T13:50:26Z")
Just wanted to share some new (?) info that the shooter made reference to July 13 being his “premiere” and had searched for info on both Trump and Biden events (notably the DNC). So I’m thinking his plan was to shoot something/someone, and if it hadn’t been the Trump event he would have found another opportunity > **[Would-be assassin posted on gaming site that ‘July 13 will be my premiere,...](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/18/politics/thomas-matthew-crooks-steam/index.html)** > > Thomas Matthew Crooks, the shooter in the failed assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump, wrote on the popular gaming platform Steam that “July 13 will be my premiere, watch as it unfolds,” a source familiar with the matter told... ---
**Author:** ![Skypist](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skypist/32/169_2.png) [@Skypist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skypist)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/108 "2024-07-18T14:44:19Z")
I was listening to a podcast where they suggested the shooter might have hoped that killing his target would start a civil war. That theory sounds plausible to me from my armchair. We’ll probably never know. He seems like a school shooter type, as others have said, wanting to have a big angry fit and hurt others on their way out. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/109 "2024-07-18T14:54:50Z")
> [@OldOlds](#): > > Just wanted to share some new (?) info that the shooter made reference to July 13 being his “premiere” Interesting. That strongly implies that he expected not only to survive, but to escape and be able to shoot somebody else. Much of what I’ve been reading on these boards has assumed that he expected to be dead almost as soon as he started shooting. As that’s what happened, and also as that was the only way the assorted law enforcement people had to get him to instantly stop shooting, it does seem obvious – but maybe it wasn’t obvious to him. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/110 "2024-07-18T15:20:46Z")
I think that there’s a lot about this that only makes sense if he assumed he’d be able to survive. Like, why leave his ID at home? It wouldn’t have mattered if he’d be dead. It was an idiotic assumption, of course, but it seems to be the one he was making. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/111 "2024-07-18T15:28:46Z")
Yeah, it’s looking more and more that he built up a fantasy where he’d be acknowledged and respected after pulling off some stupid and truly despicable acts. I suppose everybody is the hero of their own story, but he appears to have believed he was entitled to be the hero of others’ stories as well. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/112 "2024-07-18T16:10:22Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > I think that there’s a lot about this that only makes sense if he assumed he’d be able to survive. Like, why leave his ID at home? It wouldn’t have mattered if he’d be dead. It was an idiotic assumption, of course, but it seems to be the one he was making. Yeah; though it does seem to presume that he was idiot enough to think that he’d be the only one up on a roof with a rifle. If it hadn’t occurred to him that police forces would also have snipers posted and he’d be visible to them, maybe he thought he could get back down and get away somehow; possibly by blending with a chaotic crowd? Though you’d think that the fact he’d been spotted and there were people yelling about him from ground level would make that seem unlikely. And if he expected to get down through the building he’d have run into the people posted there; though they might have tried to take him alive as he wouldn’t have been actively shooting at that point – at least if he didn’t take aim at them. Some would-be or actual presidential assassins have been taken alive. But the chances of getting loose afterwards wouldn’t be good. And of course if the person’s in the middle of shooting and the only way to reach them fast is with a bullet – bullets are what they’re going to get. But this doesn’t seem to be a person who had things well thought through. At least, unless his intention was a very public suicide. But that doesn’t match with the “premiere” business. ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/113 "2024-07-18T16:13:07Z")
CNN now reporting that the FBI has concluded the Steam account was a hoax and not actually written by the shooter. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/114 "2024-07-18T16:13:09Z")
> [@thorny\_locust](#): > > maybe he thought he could get back down and get away somehow; possibly by blending with a chaotic crowd? That’s how the scumbag in Highland Park did it on July 4, 2022. Police didn’t catch up to him for a couple of hours. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/115 "2024-07-18T16:19:06Z")
> [@Akaj](#): > > Highland Park And also from a rooftop. He may have read about this and thought ‘I’m smarter than him, I actually will get away!’ (Though he wasn’t, and probably wouldn’t have.) But parades don’t usually have law enforcement snipers posted on nearby roofs to watch out for assassins. ETA: > [@thorny\_locust](#): > > But that doesn’t match with the “premiere” business. So much for that theory: > [@Thing.Fish](#): > > CNN now reporting that the FBI has concluded the Steam account was a hoax and not actually written by the shooter I still think he might have expected to get away somehow. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/116 "2024-07-18T16:22:03Z")
> [@thorny\_locust](#): > > But parades don’t usually have law enforcement snipers posted on nearby roofs to watch out for assassins. They do now – at least in Highland Park. ---
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/117 "2024-07-18T16:25:34Z")
Now you mention it, playing golf by shooting at the ball with different types of guns would make the game much more interesting. ---
**Author:** ![Daithi\_Lacha](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/daithi_lacha/32/5430_2.png) [@Daithi\_Lacha](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Daithi_Lacha)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/118 "2024-07-18T17:22:52Z")
Maybe he was hoping to take his shot and then detonate the explosives in his car, adding to the confusion and tumult. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/119 "2024-07-18T17:26:47Z")
Or maybe the plan was to detonate the explosives first, as a distraction, then take his shots, but the detonator didn’t work. Or he was too rushed by the cop on the ladder to try it. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/120 "2024-07-18T18:19:38Z")
> [@Pardel-Lux](#): > > Now you mention it, playing golf by shooting at the ball with different types of guns would make the game much more interesting. Would you settle for [explosives](https://store.steampowered.com/app/772480/Super_Inefficient_Golf/)? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219.md?page=7)