# Motivation for July 13th Trump shooting: speculation, conjecture, moving to evidence supported hypothesis **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [July 14, 2024, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219 "2024-07-14T20:07:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/121 "2024-07-18T18:28:33Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Or maybe the plan was to detonate the explosives first, as a distraction, then take his shots That would never work, it is a completely different situation than the [Breivik](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Norway_attacks) attacks, who set up a bomb in Oslo to distract the police from an attack in the island of Utøya. As soon as a bomb blows up close to where Trump (or any other protected person) is, he is taken away and shielded. I am not saying he did not plan it that way: he seems to have been dim, deluded and/or plain confused. Just saying it was a stupid plan. > [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > Would you settle for [explosives](https://store.steampowered.com/app/772480/Super_Inefficient_Golf/)? I don’t believe that is covered by the second amendment and nobody discussed collecting bombs, but I won’t stop you. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/122 "2024-07-18T22:58:33Z")
I suspect the only “plan” he had was to create some kind of mayhem. He improvised excellently having discovered an inexplicably unsecured rooftop and getting off multiple rounds, one of which grazed one of the most famous and protected people in the world. Deluded he may well have been, but you can’t deny that he was smart enough to quickly discover an opportunity and exploit it. ---
**Author:** ![snowthx](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowthx/32/10660_2.png) [@snowthx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snowthx)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2024, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/123 "2024-07-18T23:01:18Z")
Or lucky enough. Who know how many other severe vulnerabilities were present on Saturday. It’s possible he found one of many. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2024, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/124 "2024-07-19T00:22:34Z")
> [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](#): > > He improvised excellently having discovered an inexplicably unsecured rooftop We don’t know whether he’d scouted out that rooftop in advance, and was just lucky enough to find nobody up there ahead of him. He might have assumed there wouldn’t be anybody, if he was assuming he’d have a chance of escaping. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2024, 8:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/125 "2024-07-19T08:38:41Z")
A post was merged into an existing topic: [Bronnyisterrible69 troll posts](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bronnyisterrible69-troll-posts/1004452/20) ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2024, 7:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/126 "2024-07-19T07:28:07Z")
I think that a piece of significant counterevidence to the “politically unsophisticated random nutcase” theory, though, is the _timing_ of the attack, just a couple days before the opening of the convention. It really couldn’t have been more perfectly calculated to throw the GOP into complete disarray; can you even imagine what a horrific shitshow that convention would have been, with dozens of sociopathic hyenas competing to take the most extreme positions possible? ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2024, 7:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/127 "2024-07-19T07:33:30Z")
> [@Pardel-Lux](#): > > Now you mention it, playing golf by shooting at the ball with different types of guns would make the game much more interesting. Good news! There’s a video game with that premise. It’s called “Nice Shot”. > [@Chronos](#): > > I think that there’s a lot about this that only makes sense if he assumed he’d be able to survive. Like, why leave his ID at home? It wouldn’t have mattered if he’d be dead. I think it’s possible he hadn’t fully committed yet and was leaving himself the option to back out. Thus his telling his boss he’d be back on Sunday - if he decided at the last minute to turn around and go home, nobody would suspect anything was amiss. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2024, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/128 "2024-07-19T18:49:04Z")
> [@Thing.Fish](#): > > I think that a piece of significant counterevidence to the “politically unsophisticated random nutcase” theory, though, is the _timing_ of the attack, just a couple days before the opening of the convention. It really couldn’t have been more perfectly calculated to throw the GOP into complete disarray … Had this guy driven 500 miles to get to a trump rally your contention would hold more water. IMO it was dumb luck he happened to live where he did, trump happened to pick a nearby town for a rally, and trump happened to pick a day close to the convention. Now if there were / are hundreds of similar ready-to-shoot nutbags nationwide, we might expect to see more such events aimed at both Biden and trump. Based simply on the opportunity presented when the traveling rally show happens to come to a town near that particular nutbag. How many assassin wannabe nutbags are actually out there? Damned good question. > [@Thing.Fish](#): > > … throw the GOP into complete disarray; can you even imagine what a horrific shitshow that convention would have been, with dozens of sociopathic hyenas competing to take the most extreme positions possible? Yes, had trump been killed the RNC would have been an amazing spectacle for the history books. You’re surely right about that. The knife fight / race to be crowned the new head MAGAt would be appalling to watch. ---
**Author:** ![Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/marvin_the_martian/32/2898_2.png) [@Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marvin_the_Martian)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2024, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/129 "2024-07-19T21:28:25Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > The knife fight / race to be crowned the new head MAGAt would be appalling to watch. The little guy with the horns and pitchfork sitting on my left shoulder is telling me that you misspelled “appealing”… ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2024, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/130 "2024-07-19T23:00:45Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Had this guy driven 500 miles to get to a trump rally your contention would hold more water. > > IMO it was dumb luck he happened to live where he did, trump happened to pick a nearby town for a rally, and trump happened to pick a day close to the convention. That was my thought, too. He seems more like a “this will show them” shooter than a political assassin. Anything that would have made a big splash would do the trick—a Biden rally would have been just as good. As it happened, a Trump rally was less than an hour’s drive away. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2024, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/131 "2024-07-20T02:48:57Z")
I wonder whether he meant to shoot both of them. There do seem to be plenty of people who don’t like either candidate. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2024, 6:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/132 "2024-07-20T06:18:09Z")
Well, this is both surprising and not surprising at the same time; > **[Trump shooter Thomas Matthew Crooks’ last online search was for porn](https://nypost.com/2024/07/19/us-news/trump-shooter-thomas-matthew-crooks-last-online-search-was-for-porn/)** > > Thomas Matthew Crooks’ final online search before the Pennsylvania rally shooting last weekend was for pornography, according to a report. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2024, 9:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/133 "2024-07-20T09:13:52Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > How many assassin wannabe nutbags are actually out there? Damned good question. I recall a book which claimed that one of the first things a Secret Service director does when welcoming a president-elect is to sit him down and tell him something to the effect of, _“Half of this nation didn’t vote for you, a portion of that wishes you no good, a minority outright hates your guts, and a tiny fraction would kill you if they had the chance and means.”_ It does make one wonder, though, in a nation of 338 million why this sort of thing is still so statistically rare. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2024, 9:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/134 "2024-07-20T09:16:37Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > The knife fight / race to be crowned the new head MAGAt would be appalling to watch. My WAG is that Haley would have been the heavy favorite by the rulebook, since she was the only other (R) candidate who had any delegates to her name. But I may be getting off-topic. ---
**Author:** ![Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/son_of_a_rich/32/5439_2.png) [@Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Son_of_a_Rich)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2024, 11:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/135 "2024-07-20T11:36:55Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > A suitable failure cherry on his entire lifetime failure sundae. Mostly confected by his father (and mother?). And he got his just desserts. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2024, 12:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/136 "2024-07-20T12:00:55Z")
> [@Thing.Fish](#): > > I think that a piece of significant counterevidence to the “politically unsophisticated random nutcase” theory, though, is the _timing_ of the attack, just a couple days before the opening of the convention. It really couldn’t have been more perfectly calculated to throw the GOP into complete disarray; can you even imagine what a horrific shitshow that convention would have been, with dozens of sociopathic hyenas competing to take the most extreme positions possible? The timing wasn’t really under his control, though. He was a local, and that was the time when Trump was coming to his area. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2024, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/137 "2024-07-20T22:28:21Z")
What confuses me is that most school shooters are alienated losers. This guy was a quiet loner (check), but also an academically accomplished nerd. I haven’t seen reports of the sort of narcissism that Oswald had. No reports of animal torture or anything like that. OTOH, we know very little about his home situation. We have reports from acquaintances, but none from the few friends that he allegedly had, AFAICT. Was coercion involved? There’s no evidence of that. The accused allegedly scoped the crime scene out with a drone, which suggest to me he was self-motivated. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2024, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/138 "2024-07-20T22:40:09Z")
This new WaPo article suggests we may never quite know the motive: [Lack of motive in Trump attack frustrates public, but fits a pattern](https://wapo.st/3SftN94) > [@](#): > > So far, investigators say, they have found little evidence of an ideology driving the shooter, Thomas Matthew Crooks, a 20-year-old nursing home aide who was killed at the scene. The information gleaned from his phone, family and friends doesn’t offer a motive, national security analysts say, and the absence of a quick explanation has left room for the rapid-fire spread of partisan and conspiratorial theories shaping how millions of Americans view the attack. > > Barring a breakthrough in the investigation, Crooks appears poised to join a string of high-profile attackers with no discernible ideological driver, or with influences from a mixed bag of beliefs. But it’s way to early to say there will be no investigative breakthrough. The parents probably know what their child.was like. It does sound unlikely that there was a pure anti-Trump political motive… ---
**Author:** ![Gatopescado](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gatopescado/32/5711_2.png) [@Gatopescado](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gatopescado)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2024, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/139 "2024-07-21T03:45:07Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > It does make one wonder, though, in a nation of 338 million why this sort of thing is still so statistically rare. Too busy playing with phones. ---
**Author:** ![Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/son_of_a_rich/32/5439_2.png) [@Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Son_of_a_Rich)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2024, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219/140 "2024-07-21T16:50:42Z")
A new theory has Crooks as a big fan of Lee Harvey Oswald, and his real target was JFK Jr. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/motivation-for-july-13th-trump-shooting-speculation-conjecture-moving-to-evidence-supported-hypothesis/1004219.md?page=8)