# Mr Candidate goes to London **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 26, 2012, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mr-candidate-goes-to-london/629485 "2012-07-26T19:30:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 8\ **Page:** 14
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2012, 12:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mr-candidate-goes-to-london/629485/261 "2012-08-01T12:22:34Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > [2012 General Election: Romney vs. Obama | RealClearPolling](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html) > > All of 'em. You’ve previously claimed that the focus on Bain by Obama was an abject failure and potential liability. Bzzzzt! > [@](#): > > Obama Breaks 50% in Three Key Swing States > New Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times polls find President Obama leading Mitt Romney in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. > > Florida: Obama 51%, Romney 45% > > Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 44% > > Pennsylvania: Obama 53%, Romney 42% > > Just four percent of likely voters in these states are undecided. > > Also interesting: **“But a torrent of television advertising in the states, particularly in Ohio and Florida, appears to be resonating in Mr. Obama’s quest to define his Republican rival. The polls found that more voters say Mr. Romney’s experience was too focused on making profits at Bain Capital, the private equity firm he led, rather than the kind of experience that would help create jobs.”** Bolding mine. [http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/08/01/obama\_breaks\_50\_in\_three\_key\_swing\_states.html](http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/08/01/obama_breaks_50_in_three_key_swing_states.html) ---
**Author:** ![Typo\_Knig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/cdc98d/32.png) [@Typo\_Knig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Typo_Knig)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2012, 1:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mr-candidate-goes-to-london/629485/262 "2012-08-01T13:01:54Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > McCain was acquitted, and he and Glenn were added to the Keating Five for political reasons. They needed McCain so that the scandal would appear to be bipartisan, and they needed Glenn so that a Democrat would also be acquitted. > > In reality, three Dems were crooked and that was the extent of the scandal. Were you even alive then? Keating was a bi-partisan opportunist, and his money got him a lot of access. Corruption is not a feature of a single party, and never has been. McCain has much to be proud of in his political career, but he’s not perfect. Nobody is. And nobody is 100% honorable. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2012, 1:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mr-candidate-goes-to-london/629485/263 "2012-08-01T13:25:24Z")
> [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](#): > > You’ve previously claimed that the focus on Bain by Obama was an abject failure and potential liability. Bzzzzt! > > Bolding mine. > > [http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/08/01/obama\_breaks\_50\_in\_three\_key\_swing\_states.html](http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/08/01/obama_breaks_50_in_three_key_swing_states.html) Maybe. We’ll see. Notice that the Quinnipiac poll also gives Bill Nelson a 7 point lead over Connie Mack. That is also out of line with other polls over the last two months. They also show Sherrod Brown leading Josh Mandel by 12, which is 5-8 points higher than any polls taken on that race in one month. Bob CAsey’s lead is also larger than it’s been in over one month, by about five points. Now it’s possible that Obama’s ad campaign has lifted Democratic candidates across the board in Ohio and Florida. Or, they just oversampled Democrats. If they did, then the actual results look like this: Ohio- Obama 47, Romney 47 Florida- Obama 48, Romney 48(PPP just published a poll yesterday showing the race in Florida at 48-47 Obama). Pennsylvania- Obama 48, Romney 45 But I could be wrong. Let’s find out what subsequent polls report, shall we? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2012, 1:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mr-candidate-goes-to-london/629485/264 "2012-08-01T13:27:01Z")
> [@Typo\_Knig](#): > > Were you even alive then? Keating was a bi-partisan opportunist, and his money got him a lot of access. Corruption is not a feature of a single party, and never has been. McCain has much to be proud of in his political career, but he’s not perfect. Nobody is. And nobody is 100% honorable. I agree with all of that except as it applied to Keating. Initially the committee investigated in private. On September 10, 1990, Bennett submitted a confidential report, which soon leaked, that recommended that the committee continue its investigation of Cranston, DeConcini, and Riegle, but take no action against Glenn and McCain,[31] as there was insufficient evidence to pursue the latter two.[50] Bennett also recommended that public hearings be held.[30] Speculation that this would be the decision had already taken place, and both Glenn and McCain were frustrated that the long delay in resolving their cases was damaging their reputations.[50] However, there were political implications, as the removal of the two would eliminate the only Republican from the case.[50 > **[Keating Five | Relationships of senators to Keating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keating_5#Relationships_of_senators_to_Keating)** > > On September 25, 1989, several Republicans from Ohio filed an ethics complaint against Glenn, charging that he had improperly intervened on Keating's behalf. The initial charges against the five senators were made on October 13, 1989, by Common Cause, a public interest group, who asked for the U.S. Justice Department and the Senate Ethics Committee to investigate the actions of the senators relative to Lincoln and the contributions received from Keating and whether they violated the rules By Nove... ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2012, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mr-candidate-goes-to-london/629485/265 "2012-08-01T13:31:10Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Maybe. We’ll see. Notice that the Quinnipiac poll also gives Bill Nelson a 7 point lead over Connie Mack. That is also out of line with other polls over the last two months. They also show Sherrod Brown leading Josh Mandel by 12, which is 5-8 points higher than any polls taken on that race in one month. Bob CAsey’s lead is also larger than it’s been in over one month, by about five points. > > Now it’s possible that Obama’s ad campaign has lifted Democratic candidates across the board in Ohio and Florida. Or, they just oversampled Democrats. If they did, then the actual results look like this: > > Ohio- Obama 47, Romney 47 > Florida- Obama 48, Romney 48 > Pennsylvania- Obama 48, Romney 45 > > But I could be wrong. Let’s find out what subsequent polls report, shall we? Damn, Spinny McSpinnerton, you’re working harder than the rest of the Romney campaign combined. I hope they are paying you. I wonder if they’ve adopted the Scientology model of having minions scouring the web to engage skeptics? Also, I love how you unabashedly can just make up polling results. Maybe they oversampled sacks of shit. If so, the actual results look like this: Obama - 11ty billion, Romney, - 11ty billion. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2012, 1:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mr-candidate-goes-to-london/629485/266 "2012-08-01T13:38:24Z")
> [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](#): > > Damn, Spinny McSpinnerton, you’re working harder than the rest of the Romney campaign combined. I hope they are paying you. > > I wonder if they’ve adopted the Scientology model of having minions scouring the web to engage skeptics? > Also, I love how you unabashedly can just make up polling results. Maybe they oversampled sacks of shit. If so, the actual results look like this: > > Obama - 11ty billion, Romney, - 11ty billion. Then make fun of me when the polls that come out next on those states are closer to Quinnipiacs result than my adjustments. And if they are closer to my results, I’ll gloat at you. All I did was adjust for the 5 point estimated bias. It’s not Nate Silverish sophistication, but it works well enough. And it happens to match the polls that have come out over the last few days in those states. Of course, if you wish to believe that something drastic changed, like two days ago, be my guest. Obama supporters need their hope, he’s not going to give it to them. ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2012, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mr-candidate-goes-to-london/629485/267 "2012-08-01T13:41:38Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Now it’s possible that Obama’s ad campaign has lifted Democratic candidates across the board in Ohio and Florida. Or, they just oversampled Democrats. Oh, c’mon. Isn’t that a bit silly? Isn’t it also possible that they under-sampled Democrats and Obama is even further ahead? It does appear that the Quinnipiac poll is out of line with the [compendium](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html) of polls at Real Clear Politics, though, I’ll say that. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2012, 1:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mr-candidate-goes-to-london/629485/268 "2012-08-01T13:47:39Z")
IT’s not silly, although it could be wrong. The poll is an outlier, and oversampling is one of the most frequent causes of outlier results. This poll has raised enough attention that I’m sure Nate Silver will write about it before the end of the day. A lot of Obama supporters were excited about that Bloomberg poll last month that showed him with a double digit lead, Silver noted that it was an outlier: [http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/20/outlier-polls-are-no-substitute-for-news/](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/20/outlier-polls-are-no-substitute-for-news/) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mr-candidate-goes-to-london/629485.md?page=13)