# Mr. President. Soviet premier is on the hotline. **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [August 23, 2014, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mr-president-soviet-premier-is-on-the-hotline/696297 "2014-08-23T16:03:37Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Mr.Kobayashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4af34b/32.png) [@Mr.Kobayashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Kobayashi)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2014, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mr-president-soviet-premier-is-on-the-hotline/696297/1 "2014-08-23T16:03:37Z")
It’s 1983\* and you’re the President of the United States, asleep in front of the TV in the White House. You’re shaken awake, the Strategic Air Command informs you a Soviet nuclear strike is inbound, following a launch at the USSR from Turkey. You ask them to recheck and confirm it isn’t a glitch, it’s real. Moments later the Moscow-Washington hotline prints off a message from the Soviet Premier. He says that nuclear strikes will hit US ICBM installations as a result of renegade elements in the Soviet military detonating a nuclear weapon in Donetsk. Believing they are under attack by NATO, Soviet systems have launched at the U.S. 1. Do nothing. The USSR will not launch any more strikes. 2. Respond in kind against Soviet military facilities (the resulting fallout will likely kill 6-8 million civilians, roughly the predicted casualties in the U.S.). The USSR will not launch any more strikes. 3. Massive retaliation. The USSR will respond in kind. Your advisers say that there is a fourth option, attempt to decapitate the Soviet government. The resulting instability may or may not work in your favour, however. What do you do? Or do you do something else entirely (Option 5)? \*Scenario taken from the film _By Dawn’s Early Light_, an adaptation the book _Trinity’s Child_ by William Prochnau. ---
**Author:** ![Habeed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a587f6/32.png) [@Habeed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Habeed)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2014, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mr-president-soviet-premier-is-on-the-hotline/696297/2 "2014-08-23T16:19:17Z")
If you don’t retaliate in kind, it means 2 significant things. 1. The end of your political party for being “weak” against nuclear assault. 2. The enemy knows if they nuke you again you might not respond that time either. ---
**Author:** ![Habeed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a587f6/32.png) [@Habeed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Habeed)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2014, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mr-president-soviet-premier-is-on-the-hotline/696297/3 "2014-08-23T16:20:30Z")
With that said, it feels very senseless to murder 6-8 million people. Those people are innocent of the actions of their government for the most part, especially under the Soviet system. But doing anything else risks you losing even more of your citizens. ---
**Author:** ![Habeed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a587f6/32.png) [@Habeed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Habeed)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2014, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mr-president-soviet-premier-is-on-the-hotline/696297/4 "2014-08-23T16:23:15Z")
This situation is somewhat similar to a multi-round prisoner’s dilemma. A simple solution to that problem is tit for tat, and it does well in competitive tests against other algorithms (there are theoretical algorithms that are better but they are almost uncomputable). ---
**Author:** ![jtur88](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/e9c0ed/32.png) [@jtur88](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jtur88)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2014, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mr-president-soviet-premier-is-on-the-hotline/696297/5 "2014-08-23T16:53:34Z")
Capitulate. This, too, will pass. Look how quickly western Europe resumed civilized society after Hitler, and eastern Europe after USSR, East Asia after Hirohito. Resistance only perpetuates the cycle of aggression and retaliation. ---
**Author:** ![BrotherCadfael](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@BrotherCadfael](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrotherCadfael)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2014, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mr-president-soviet-premier-is-on-the-hotline/696297/6 "2014-08-23T16:54:43Z")
This is, basically, the flip side of _Fail Safe_, a novel where the Americans, due to a electromechanical failure, send a single bomber wing to nuke Moscow. Despite the Americans providing targeting information to the Russians, a single bomber makes it to target. To keep the Russians from picking option 3, the American president (a JFK lookalike) orders an American bomber to nuke New York, which satisfies world honor. Sounds like a plan, so I pick option 5. ---
**Author:** ![Dale\_Sams](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/779978/32.png) [@Dale\_Sams](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dale_Sams)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2014, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mr-president-soviet-premier-is-on-the-hotline/696297/7 "2014-08-23T17:08:27Z")
Tell Darren McGavin to stuff it. ---
**Author:** ![Oakminster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/77aa72/32.png) [@Oakminster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oakminster)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2014, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mr-president-soviet-premier-is-on-the-hotline/696297/8 "2014-08-23T17:15:15Z")
I don’t think you want to take out the Soviet leadership. Seems like I remember hearing they have some sort of dead man switch that would launch an all out strike if that happened. Also don;t really feel like launching an all out strike myself, so tit for tat it is. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2014, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mr-president-soviet-premier-is-on-the-hotline/696297/9 "2014-08-23T17:21:09Z")
> [@jtur88](#): > > Capitulate. This, too, will pass. Look how quickly western Europe resumed civilized society after Hitler, and eastern Europe after USSR, East Asia after Hirohito. Who do you expect is going to defeat the USSR militarily after the United States capitulates? ---
**Author:** ![LawMonkey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d6d6ee/32.png) [@LawMonkey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LawMonkey)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2014, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mr-president-soviet-premier-is-on-the-hotline/696297/10 "2014-08-23T17:25:57Z")
I’ll need a briefing on our mineshaft situation relative to the Soviets first. Also, tell me we haven’t let them see the Big Board! ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2014, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mr-president-soviet-premier-is-on-the-hotline/696297/11 "2014-08-23T17:32:10Z")
Pave them. ---
**Author:** ![Atomic\_Alex](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atomic_alex/32/175_2.png) [@Atomic\_Alex](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atomic_Alex)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2014, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mr-president-soviet-premier-is-on-the-hotline/696297/12 "2014-08-23T18:47:21Z")
Option (2), you can always put forces on standby and escalate if it looks like the Soviets are breaking their word. As much as I would like to select the ‘do nothing’ option that might have problematic consequences further down the line, deterrence only works if your opponent knows you _will_ retaliate, and failing to react at all is only inviting further aggression at a later time. btw I recognised the scenario as soon as I started reading it, ‘By Dawn’s Early Light’ is one of my favourite movies, the book is good as well but I actually preferred the movie. bttw I do wonder how much thought leaders of nuclear armed states put into the idea of having the ultimate authority over such weapons before the metaphorical button is actually put into their hands. I do recall reading a possibly apocryphal story about President Carter going white when the full capability of the US deterrent was explained to him on taking office, and also about President Yeltsin huffing and puffing and sweating as he had to make a decision doing the Norweigan Rocket Incident, supposedly the first and only time the/a nuclear ‘briefcase’ has been opened in anger. In fact another good book, ‘Warday’ by Whitley Strieber depicts the US President suffering a fatal heart attack under the strain of decision making during a nuclear attack. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2014, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mr-president-soviet-premier-is-on-the-hotline/696297/13 "2014-08-23T23:21:48Z")
> [@silenus](#): > > Pave them. Agreed. I don’t believe them. ---
**Author:** ![Atomic\_Alex](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atomic_alex/32/175_2.png) [@Atomic\_Alex](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atomic_Alex)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2014, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mr-president-soviet-premier-is-on-the-hotline/696297/14 "2014-08-23T23:26:38Z")
> [@jtgain](#): > > Agreed. I don’t believe them. Except in the scenario presented it really was genuine. I agree its a pretty damn big ask to take them at their word but in the final analysis history would record that a full strategic exchange took place when it didn’t have to. If US systems are alert and ready would anything be lost by retaliating in kind and waiting to see if the Soviets are escalating? If they are then take the gloves off. ---
**Author:** ![Giles](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/giles/32/60_2.png) [@Giles](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Giles)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2014, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mr-president-soviet-premier-is-on-the-hotline/696297/15 "2014-08-24T00:17:33Z")
I’d ask what the Soviet Union could offer in reparations for the damage caused by its attack. Either it could give full compensation for the damage caused by its attack (which might be more than the Soviet economy could stand), or it could offer territorial concessions, e.g., withdraw Soviet troops from a large part of East Germany so that territory could become part of West Germany, or concede all of the Kuril Islands to Japan. ---
**Author:** ![alphaboi867](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alphaboi867/32/3898_2.png) [@alphaboi867](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alphaboi867)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2014, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mr-president-soviet-premier-is-on-the-hotline/696297/16 "2014-08-24T02:08:19Z")
Option 3 and refuse to evacuate from the White House. ---
**Author:** ![jtur88](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/e9c0ed/32.png) [@jtur88](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jtur88)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2014, 4:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mr-president-soviet-premier-is-on-the-hotline/696297/17 "2014-08-24T04:09:23Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > Who do you expect is going to defeat the USSR militarily after the United States capitulates? Why do you think it so essential to “defeat” them, with the loss of tens or hundreds of millions of lives in the process? Even if you retaliate, and take all the losses along with it, there is no assurance that you would defeat them. ---
**Author:** ![Grumman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/43a26b/32.png) [@Grumman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grumman)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2014, 4:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mr-president-soviet-premier-is-on-the-hotline/696297/18 "2014-08-24T04:38:38Z")
The USSR just launched an attack that severely damages our ability to defend ourselves. We know they launched the attack. Telling us something we already know, that they’d know we already know, isn’t enough to convince me that this was not deliberate. If it was a deliberate attack the story about rogue elements costs them nothing, and has the potential for massive reward. If it was a deliberate attack, we do not want the USSR to be in a position to exploit the opportunity granted by the destruction of our missile silos. I vote for “respond in kind”. ---
**Author:** ![Ranchoth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ranchoth/32/1066_2.png) [@Ranchoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ranchoth)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2014, 6:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mr-president-soviet-premier-is-on-the-hotline/696297/19 "2014-08-24T06:42:51Z")
I’m torn between 2. (limited retaliation against Soviet nuclear forces), and a variation of 1…in that I play up the victim card as much as possible, proclaiming that this proves that the Soviets are clearly unable to be trusted with their nuclear arsenal, and demanding significant political concessions (i.e. widescale, if not total nuclear disarmament on their part, withdrawing their forces from Europe, etc. etc.). I dunno if the chances of success (not being rebuffed, or goading them into starting a full-scale attack, or me getting impeached for inaction before the scheme can take effect) for that would be better if I did it all on the world stage in the aftermath of the attack, or if I did it via the hotline _during_ the crisis—essentially demanding the Soviets immediately surrender. Even with a figurative gun at his head, the Premier might not agree to it, and might turn aggressive once backed into a corner. And even if he did capitulate, the other members of the Soviet government and military leadership might not—and they’ve apparently already proved themselves to have enough renegade elements to detonate a nuke by themselves. So, I guess I’ll go with a version of option 2—try and degrade the Soviets’ nuclear capability (using my the soon-to-be-destroyed-anyway ICBM force) in retaliation, claiming self-defense for the US and her allies (which is basically true!), and demanding the massive military, political, and economic concessions in the aftermath. I can always make another shot at decapitating their leadership or launching a full-scale (well, minus the land-based ICBM force) nuclear attack later. ---
**Author:** ![Namkcalb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/c89c15/32.png) [@Namkcalb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Namkcalb)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2014, 6:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mr-president-soviet-premier-is-on-the-hotline/696297/20 "2014-08-24T06:49:28Z")
I’d demand the Premier immediately launch \*\*all \*\*their remaining missiles at a specified uninhabited part of Russia. This is to be done at a low trajectory, as suborbitals are too difficult to track. Otherwise, the PotUS, should wipe Kiev and St Petersburg off the map. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mr-president-soviet-premier-is-on-the-hotline/696297.md?page=2)