# MT-AL Special Election 5/25/17 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 17, 2017, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mt-al-special-election-5-25-17/784665 "2017-04-17T20:52:23Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2017, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mt-al-special-election-5-25-17/784665/1 "2017-04-17T20:52:23Z")
Montana just has one Congressional district, the entire state. The state had been represented in the House by Ryan Zinke, now Secretary of the Interior. Montanans will vote on _Thursday_, May 25, to elect Zinke’s replacement. The GOP candidate is [Greg Gianforte](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greg_Gianforte), and the Dem candidate is [Rob Quist](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rob_Quist). According to statements filed on April 14, [Gianforte has outraised Quist so far](http://flatheadbeacon.com/2017/04/15/gianforte-outraises-quist-race-us-house-seat/), by roughly $1.6M to $900K. It would obviously be better, from this Dem’s perspective, if the numbers were reversed, but the good news is that you can run a real race in Montana with a million bucks. This isn’t KS-04 where the Dem candidate didn’t have enough money to send out a mass mailing. Here’s [CNN’s take on the race](http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/14/politics/montana-singer-millionaire-house-election/). Gianforte ran for governor last year and lost, 50-46. He’s a young-earth creationist who’s got some positions that are unusual even for Republicans, such as being against the notion of retirement altogether on ‘biblical’ grounds. Quist is a Montana legend as a folksinger. The question is, can he turn that into a win? ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2017, 4:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mt-al-special-election-5-25-17/784665/2 "2017-04-18T04:29:35Z")
If the D national committee were smart (and I have doubts about that), they’d jump into this race with as much support as they could manage. Ditto for all these special races. They didn’t for KS-4 and they lost a close one they had a good chance at. This year, the Democrat base is upset and energized like no party has ever been. Much more so than after that mess in 2000, for example. They really want some wins to show that, well, lots of things. The party needs to jump on this and go after all the special races. And every congressional race in 2018. But they don’t seem to realize this and are going by past history. They need to realize that past history doesn’t apply this year. This is a situation that’s unprecedented, but they’re still going by precedents. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2017, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mt-al-special-election-5-25-17/784665/3 "2017-05-22T18:11:14Z")
With three days to go before they vote in Big Sky country, it seems like time to bump this thread. Roll Call has [changed their rating](http://www.rollcall.com/news/gonzales/rating-change-montana-special-election-quist-gianforte) of the race from Likely Republican to Tilts Republican. Rob Quist has raised $5M, so if he loses, it won’t be because he didn’t have the resources. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2017, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mt-al-special-election-5-25-17/784665/4 "2017-05-22T18:43:11Z")
[Predictit](https://www.predictit.org/Market/2961/Who-will-win-the-2017-House-of-Representatives-special-election-in-Montana) has Gianaforte at $0.67 and Quist at $0.34. ---
**Author:** ![DSYoungEsq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c6cbf5/32.png) [@DSYoungEsq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSYoungEsq)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2017, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mt-al-special-election-5-25-17/784665/5 "2017-05-22T21:55:04Z")
I have to say that, despite all the negative press the President gets, and all the positive rah-rah from the Democrats, it doesn’t really appear that this is going to translate into flipped seats, yet. I doubt the Georgia seat will flip, the Kansas seat didn’t, the South Carolina seat almost certainly won’t (and it appears that one of the most controversially conservative Republicans won the run-off primary). A lot of sound and fury over nothing, so far. ---
**Author:** ![Yersenia\_Pestis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/e495f1/32.png) [@Yersenia\_Pestis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Yersenia_Pestis)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2017, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mt-al-special-election-5-25-17/784665/6 "2017-05-23T00:36:29Z")
Of all these races, the GA race is the only I think there’s a chance of an actual flip - simply because of the changing demographics of that area - and even with that, the sheer tribalism of voting R runs deep there too (heck, just ask a few of our fellow dopers, not going to name any names, the brainwashing is powerful indeed…) ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2017, 8:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mt-al-special-election-5-25-17/784665/7 "2017-05-23T08:11:16Z")
I can’t see why the Montana seat can’t flip. Montana has a Dem governor and a Dem Senator, so it’s not like Dems never win statewide elections in Montana. Sure, if I had to bet the house in an even-odds bet on one candidate or the other, I’d go with the Republican, but at the 2-1 odds on Predictit, I’d put my money on Quist. Anyone here so sure that Montana can’t flip, that they’ll take the short-odds side of that bet? Your $40 against my $20, or your $100 against my $50, etc.? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2017, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mt-al-special-election-5-25-17/784665/8 "2017-05-23T14:53:54Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > I can’t see why the Montana seat can’t flip. Montana has a Dem governor and a Dem Senator, so it’s not like Dems never win statewide elections in Montana. > > Sure, if I had to bet the house in an even-odds bet on one candidate or the other, I’d go with the Republican, but at the 2-1 odds on Predictit, I’d put my money on Quist. > > Anyone here so sure that Montana can’t flip, that they’ll take the short-odds side of that bet? Your $40 against my $20, or your $100 against my $50, etc.? Just in case it wasn’t clear: You need someone _here_ to take the bet. You can buy [all the QIST.MTAL.2017 you want right here](https://www.predictit.org/Contract/5435/Will-Rob-Quist-win-the-2017-House-of-Representatives-special-election-in-Montana#data). It’s even cheaper today, at $0.29. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2017, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mt-al-special-election-5-25-17/784665/9 "2017-05-23T15:20:45Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Just in case it wasn’t clear: You need someone _here_ to take the bet. You can buy [all the QIST.MTAL.2017 you want right here](https://www.predictit.org/Contract/5435/Will-Rob-Quist-win-the-2017-House-of-Representatives-special-election-in-Montana#data). It’s even cheaper today, at $0.29. That was supposed to say “You DON’T need someone here …” ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2017, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mt-al-special-election-5-25-17/784665/10 "2017-05-23T16:05:17Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > That was supposed to say “You DON’T need someone here …” OK, because I was confused. But actually, making money isn’t (for me, at least) the point of the would-be bet. The point of the bet is to say, “If you’re so sure Montana can’t be flipped, let’s see your money. I not only think it _can_ be flipped, but I think there’s at least a 1-in-3 chance that it _will_ be flipped this week.” ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2017, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mt-al-special-election-5-25-17/784665/11 "2017-05-23T16:11:39Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > OK, because I was confused. > > But actually, making money isn’t (for me, at least) the point of the would-be bet. The point of the bet is to say, “If you’re so sure Montana can’t be flipped, let’s see your money. I not only think it _can_ be flipped, but I think there’s at least a 1-in-3 chance that it _will_ be flipped this week.” Ahhh, ok. While I’m fairly confident that it won’t flip, I am far from certain, and don’t particularly want to damage my anonymity over $50 in winnings. ---
**Author:** ![BigAppleBucky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigapplebucky/32/178_2.png) [@BigAppleBucky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigAppleBucky)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2017, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mt-al-special-election-5-25-17/784665/12 "2017-05-24T14:51:14Z")
In a special election to fill a vacant state assembly seat on Long Island, Christine Pellegrino, a Bernie Sanders delegate to the DNC, crushed a Republican 58-42%. 45 had won the district 60-40%. The district has not been represented by a Democrat in decades. [Newsday story](http://www.newsday.com/long-island/politics/in-upset-democrat-pellegrino-wins-9th-district-assembly-seat-1.13656477) > [@](#): > > “Bold populism that puts working families’ issues front and center. This is how we win in Trump country,” said Bill Lipton, state director of the Working Families Party, Tuesday night. “This is the lesson for Democrats around the country.” ---
**Author:** ![The\_Devil\_s\_Grandmother](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/74df32/32.png) [@The\_Devil\_s\_Grandmother](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Devil_s_Grandmother)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2017, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mt-al-special-election-5-25-17/784665/13 "2017-05-24T20:59:56Z")
> [@DSYoungEsq](#): > > I have to say that, despite all the negative press the President gets, and all the positive rah-rah from the Democrats, it doesn’t really appear that this is going to translate into flipped seats, yet. I doubt the Georgia seat will flip, the Kansas seat didn’t, the South Carolina seat almost certainly won’t (and it appears that one of the most controversially conservative Republicans won the run-off primary). A lot of sound and fury over nothing, so far. It’s not all sound and fury over nothing, it’s forcing the GOP to spend time, money, and effort to defend what was pre-trump a [super red seat in a super red state](http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/24/montana-special-election-quist-gianforte-238746). With any luck it will cost them even more, as both [Pence and Trump have put out robocalls,](http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/334934-trump-records-robocall-in-montana-race)which are illegal in Montana. ---
**Author:** ![iamthewalrus\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/258eb7/32.png) [@iamthewalrus\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamthewalrus_3)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2017, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mt-al-special-election-5-25-17/784665/14 "2017-05-24T21:14:03Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Anyone here so sure that Montana can’t flip, that they’ll take the short-odds side of that bet? Your $40 against my $20, or your $100 against my $50, etc.? I’ll put my $40 against your $20. I’m not _sure_ it can’t flip, but I think the odds are worse than 2:1. Please respond before voting starts tomorrow to confirm. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2017, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mt-al-special-election-5-25-17/784665/15 "2017-05-24T21:14:58Z")
I’m not sure I’d call MT a “super red state” prior to Trump. Obama very nearly won it in 2008, and it’s been consistently electing Dem Governors since 2004. It’s been represented in the Senate by at least one Democrat going back 100+ years. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2017, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mt-al-special-election-5-25-17/784665/16 "2017-05-24T22:31:42Z")
> [@iamthewalrus\_3](#): > > I’ll put my $40 against your $20. > > I’m not _sure_ it can’t flip, but I think the odds are worse than 2:1. > > Please respond before voting starts tomorrow to confirm. You’re on! ---
**Author:** ![iamthewalrus\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/258eb7/32.png) [@iamthewalrus\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamthewalrus_3)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2017, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mt-al-special-election-5-25-17/784665/17 "2017-05-24T22:36:11Z")
Cools. If Quist wins I owe you $40. If Gianforte wins you owe me $20. Winner is entitled to a moderate amount of good-natured gloating. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2017, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mt-al-special-election-5-25-17/784665/18 "2017-05-25T00:17:29Z")
> [@iamthewalrus\_3](#): > > Cools. If Quist wins I owe you $40. If Gianforte wins you owe me $20. > > Winner is entitled to a moderate amount of good-natured gloating. 🙂 Yeppers to all that. See you Friday morning! 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2017, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mt-al-special-election-5-25-17/784665/19 "2017-05-25T00:21:59Z")
[(Glasses) Breaking News in Montana](http://heavy.com/news/2017/05/greg-gianforte-body-slam-ben-jacobs-audio-police-scanner-assault-listen-montana-reporter/): > [@](#): > > Just hours before voters head to the polls, a violent incident with a reporter has Greg Gianforte’s campaign scrambling. > > Gianforte, a Republican who is campaigning for the vacant House seat in Montana, reportedly “bodyslammed” Guardian US’s reporter Ben Jacobs to the ground in a closed room, breaking his glasses… ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2017, 12:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mt-al-special-election-5-25-17/784665/20 "2017-05-25T00:26:34Z")
Greg Gianforte [finishing strong](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/may/24/greg-gianforte-bodyslams-reporter-ben-jacobs-montana?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other) - well, he would be if this were the WWE. ETA: Ninja’d! [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mt-al-special-election-5-25-17/784665.md?page=2)