# My Note to President Trump on the Climate Accords 5-31-2017 **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 1, 2017, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/my-note-to-president-trump-on-the-climate-accords-5-31-2017/787815 "2017-06-01T03:24:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 12\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2017, 5:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/my-note-to-president-trump-on-the-climate-accords-5-31-2017/787815/81 "2017-06-02T05:54:54Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > …The closest I got to a claim like _that_ was “Trump seems to have reached the conclusion that it was too much cost for too little benefit.” How did he do that? Did he pour over all the available data with his keen analytical mind, using the latest statistical skills, skills he picked up building golf courses? This guy? “The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive.” You buy that? Do you offer it to us as the Gospel According to St. Orange. **GIGO** ’s got battalions of actual scientists backing him, you got this guy who has lied to you in avalanche abundance. And here’s a threat that could easily guarantee that all of our great grandchildren will live brief lives of fear and want…and this guy is who you want us to believe? Monorail. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2017, 6:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/my-note-to-president-trump-on-the-climate-accords-5-31-2017/787815/82 "2017-06-02T06:03:12Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > … here’s a threat that could easily guarantee that all of our great grandchildren will live brief lives of fear and want… Could I get a cite for that claim? ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2017, 6:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/my-note-to-president-trump-on-the-climate-accords-5-31-2017/787815/83 "2017-06-02T06:03:34Z")
I would say that the US right is an embarrassment to humanity and rationality, but of course that’s been quite evident for some time. We’ve moved rapidly through the first 3 levels of excuses, I hope I don’t get to see level 4. 1. The world is not warming 2. The world is warming, but it’s not our fault **3. It’s our fault, but we just can’t decide what’s best to do about it** 1. It’s too late to do anything now anyway ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2017, 6:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/my-note-to-president-trump-on-the-climate-accords-5-31-2017/787815/84 "2017-06-02T06:34:00Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Could I get a cite for that claim? Back the truck in, **GIGO** , **Hurr** wants some cite. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2017, 6:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/my-note-to-president-trump-on-the-climate-accords-5-31-2017/787815/85 "2017-06-02T06:42:40Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Back the truck in, **GIGO** , **Hurr** wants some cite. You’re outsourcing the defense of your claim? ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2017, 6:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/my-note-to-president-trump-on-the-climate-accords-5-31-2017/787815/86 "2017-06-02T06:53:47Z")
A few more things I’m going to add … > [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > @ **Barack Obama** : > > [This is the chart](http://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/275845/1496334071785-221172.jpg) I’m seeing tossed around to illustrate the effects of the Paris Climate Accords. Is that accurate, or is it wrong? [It’s wrong.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=20247063&postcount=48) As I noted in that post, it’s not a credible chart that’s being “tossed around” anywhere but in denialist circles; it comes from Bjorn Lomborg, who is a shill for the fossil fuel industry and who’s been convicted in Denmark of scientific dishonesty with regard to some of his claims about climate change. ETA: And note that I linked [over here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=20247462&postcount=68) to an excellent debunking of the bullshit arguments that Trump is making. > [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I’m interested to know if anyone else has done any actual analysis of the anticipated effects of the Paris Accord and if they reached a different conclusion. That information would be very useful to me. Do you know if anyone has? With regard to the Paris accord, the question is malformed; in essence, the question is backwards. The agreement is [primarily drafted in terms of outcomes](http://bigpicture.unfccc.int/#content-the-paris-agreemen) [you may have to click on “The Paris Agreement” on the left-hand side to go the right section], the most important of which is to limit further temperature rise to well below 2°C and to make every effort to limit it to 1.5°C. A secondary goal is for emissions to peak ASAP and thereafter stabilize and decline, with zero net new emissions in the second half of this century. So “the effects of the Paris accord” are self-evidently defined in the agreement itself, and it can be said that the temperature goals are consistent with scientific evidence of dangerous thresholds and damaging impacts, and the emissions goals are broadly consistent with the temperature goals according to current understanding of climate sensitivity. There is a real and valid criticism that can be made of the Paris accords, but it isn’t the kind of nonsense that Lomborg is spouting, and it’s particularly not what conservatives want to hear. The criticism is that the goals for net emissions reductions are not sufficiently binding and probably not aggressive enough. A quick look at [this graph](https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Balasubramanian_Govindasamy/publication/260363583/figure/fig5/AS:297010365255686@1447824197842/Fig-5-CMIP5-model-based-time-series-of-temperature-and-precipitation-anomalies.png) tells the story. The four RCPs represent the net new forcing from atmospheric carbon in 2100, in watts/m[sup]2[/sup]. RCP 2.6 is generally considered an unrealistically aggressive mitigation scenario, RCP 8.5 is business as usual (i.e.- Trump policy), and the middle two are generally considered the realistic ones. The trouble is, it will take something close to RCP 2.6 to achieve the desired temperature outcome by 2100 and keep temperature rise below dangerous thresholds. [This](http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n9/abs/nclimate3096.html) research paper and [this one](http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069563/pdf) [PDF] both point to similar conclusions. The first paper questions whether 1.5°C is achievable without substantially more aggressive policies; the second one goes further and concludes that “the 2°C threshold could be avoided only if net zero greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) are achieved by 2085 and late century negative emissions are considerably in excess of those assumed in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6”. This is perhaps somewhat of an outlier but not greatly so, and certainly plausible. The question that Americans should be asking is this: if we are already at the point that it may take the most optimistic and aggressive mitigation policies to bring climate change safely under control, isn’t doing nothing – and indeed mining for more coal and trying to grow fossil fuel use – the most reckless and stupid policy imaginable? Doesn’t it underscore the vital importance of a concerted global effort to meet or exceed the Paris objectives, starting immediately? ---
**Author:** ![The\_Librarian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_librarian/32/402_2.png) [@The\_Librarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Librarian)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2017, 7:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/my-note-to-president-trump-on-the-climate-accords-5-31-2017/787815/87 "2017-06-02T07:02:53Z")
Most of you are missing the point: Off course the Paris thing is deeply flawed, but it’s the only thing we’ve got. It was the only sensible starting point for something better. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2017, 1:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/my-note-to-president-trump-on-the-climate-accords-5-31-2017/787815/88 "2017-06-02T13:07:27Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > Trump already has shown to depend on crank magnets for information. GIGO Indeed. Shit, I _just_ got your name!:smack: ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2017, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/my-note-to-president-trump-on-the-climate-accords-5-31-2017/787815/89 "2017-06-02T14:39:59Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > Shit, I _just_ got your name!:smack: Yep, a buster of the [GIGO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garbage_in,_garbage_out). That and it is a riff on one favorite https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buster\_(film[/url"]movie. … Uh, I mean this one of course: [sub][Bustin’ makes feel good!](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghostbusters)[/sub] 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Evan\_Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/b487fb/32.png) [@Evan\_Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evan_Drake)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2017, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/my-note-to-president-trump-on-the-climate-accords-5-31-2017/787815/90 "2017-06-02T16:35:34Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > [In this post](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=779715&highlight=Cruz), this “far left Democrat” likes Ted Cruz. In certain reclusive libertarian worlds of the superrich Ted Cruz _is_ far left. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2017, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/my-note-to-president-trump-on-the-climate-accords-5-31-2017/787815/91 "2017-06-02T17:14:08Z")
> [@Evan\_Drake](#): > > In certain reclusive libertarian worlds of the superrich Ted Cruz _is_ far left. We are dealing with the real world here though. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2017, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/my-note-to-president-trump-on-the-climate-accords-5-31-2017/787815/92 "2017-06-02T18:48:29Z")
> [@Evan\_Drake](#): > > In certain reclusive libertarian worlds of the superrich Ted Cruz _is_ far left. And if you dig down far enough you will eventually be digging up. :rolleyes: [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/my-note-to-president-trump-on-the-climate-accords-5-31-2017/787815.md?page=4)