# Mystery Mafia -- Game Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [August 17, 2011, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025 "2011-08-17T14:03:37Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 115
**Author:** ![Normal\_Phase](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Normal\_Phase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Normal_Phase)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2011, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2282 "2011-08-23T15:53:23Z")
> [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > I’m not sure what you want me to explain. I don’t really have the context for the first one, but IIRC, Jan had revealed her secret bag and I still felt like it was in our best interest to make sense of her message. I believe this was also before **Weedy** gave her message about **TexCat** or **Giraffe** gave the message about me. So, if I remember my thought process then, I still thought that the **Krayz** wagon was to protect one of **TexCat** or **Silver Jan** and we had a conflicting claim between the two that meant that we probably had 2 wolves vs 2 wolves. **Gnarly** hadn’t commented yet either to confirm **TexCat** ’s claim. > The second post is after realizing that we had a lot more claims going out, whereas in the first one, I believe we only had 3, and I wouldn’t have been surprised if some of those were lies. With 5 reads out there now, it becomes a lot more likely that there’s something else going on. > So, I can only assume you’re seeing some conflict because you’re taking my opinions of the current information out of the context of what information was actually revealed. And, quite frankly, I was struggling last Night trying to keep up and make sense of what was going on and, unfortunately, I had other obligations that I couldn’t stay on all Night and wait for it all to get resolved. Hell, I’m still catching up, so I’m still not sure that my current idea of what the claims are is accurate. You went (paraphrasing slightly) from “it’s worth it to lynch a claimed mason even if we’re wrong” to “it’s not worth it to lynch a claimed mason”. You had a lot of verbiage in the first post explaining why gnarly might be scum prior to that statement, but you still made it. And then you directly contradicted it, with no reason given why IIRC. I don’t see why there being extra claims out there (or anything Pizza said in the post your responded to) changes the math on this. It could change, hypothetically, how likely you find it that gnarly is actually scum, but that’s not what you said your decision was based on, arguably in the first case, definitely in the second. ---
**Author:** ![Silver\_Jan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/90ced4/32.png) [@Silver\_Jan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Silver_Jan)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2011, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2283 "2011-08-23T15:54:16Z")
> [@peekercpa](#): > > **vote farking giraffe.** > lord are you folks really this obtuse? I think we must be. I have been hopping around like a bunny rabbit so I will go with you. I was going to mention something about a sheep but I’d better not to you 🙂 **Unvote** **Vote Giraffe** And if you all think I don’t know what is going on, that’s just because it’s true. ---
**Author:** ![peekercpa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8baadc/32.png) [@peekercpa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/peekercpa)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2011, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2284 "2011-08-23T15:57:35Z")
> [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > On the flipside of that, \*\*Giraffe \*\*isn’t coming across too well either. He’s simply fixated on **peeker** , with a couple of side trips to join the \*\*gnarly \*\*and \*\*Jan \*\*bandwagons temporarily.that \*\*gnarly \*\*was targeted by a non-investigative role last Night (see Post 1774). \ well we could always lynch him. takes care of two issues. and it rids us of a scum. kind of a side benefit, so to speak. ---
**Author:** ![TexCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texcat/32/9041_2.png) [@TexCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TexCat)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2011, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2285 "2011-08-23T15:59:21Z")
NAF, I was about to change over to blaster when Inner Stickler came in and said that everyone needed to vote for one of SilverJan, Gnarly, me, or Weedy. Really? No opinions on the game, just we need to vote for one of the 4 people who are likely town? ---
**Author:** ![pwnsall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/7feea3/32.png) [@pwnsall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pwnsall)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2011, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2286 "2011-08-23T16:00:44Z")
based on the claims I don’t like voting Jan or gnarly anyone want to give me cliffs on the others receiving votes? ---
**Author:** ![Silver\_Jan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/90ced4/32.png) [@Silver\_Jan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Silver_Jan)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2011, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2287 "2011-08-23T16:02:08Z")
> [@TexCat](#): > > NAF, I was about to change over to blaster when Inner Stickler came in and said that everyone needed to vote for one of SilverJan, Gnarly, me, or Weedy. Really? No opinions on the game, just we need to vote for one of the 4 people who are likely town? I caught that too although there are more than one scum in the game and **Peeker** is being absolutely adamant that **Giraffe** is scum. ---
**Author:** ![pwnsall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/7feea3/32.png) [@pwnsall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pwnsall)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2011, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2288 "2011-08-23T16:02:35Z")
I don’t want to vote any of the people who claimed an investigation I’d rather decide on it after more information is released and wolves have widdled it down for us ---
**Author:** ![TexCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texcat/32/9041_2.png) [@TexCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TexCat)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2011, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2289 "2011-08-23T16:03:19Z")
> [@Silver\_Jan](#): > > I caught that too although there are more than one scum in the game and **Peeker** is being absolutely adamant that **Giraffe** is scum. LOL, peeker is always adamant. Doesn’t mean he’s town, and doesn’t mean he’s right. ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2011, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2290 "2011-08-23T16:04:36Z")
> [@Askthepizzaguy](#): > > Well jeez, why don’t we just scan 5 people at a time until the game is solved? > > [ul] > [li]Oracle who targeted Dancecat, go alphabetical from the player list starting at one, and skip down every 5 names every night.[/li][li]Oracle who targeted Blaster, same deal, just start at the second name on the list,[/li][li]Oracle who targeted Silver Jan, same deal, just start at the third name,[/li][li]TexCat fourth name,[/li][li]Gnarly fifth name,[/li][/ul] > And we’ll solve this game without having to think too much. And that’s just with the seers. Nevermind watchers, trackers, blockers, vigilantes, doctors… > > Game is not balanced with 5 true cops. That’s my point. If you want to play that bet, I just gave you a nearly foolproof way of killing all the scums in record time. > > That’s horse dooky, IMO. Sorry. And… this is a terrible idea. If any of these messages are from scum or there are any role blockers or redirectors, we can easily let scum manipulate this. And it’s only useful IF we assume the 5 cop setup, which you seem to be sure is in place with no real reason other than your assertion. Ideally, we get more and more total reads, we can make guesses about their chances at accuracy, and we can then get a fuzzy value for towniness. At this point, all we can really say for sure is that they are definitelly not all accurate or all inaccurate because of the conflicting results. ---
**Author:** ![peekercpa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8baadc/32.png) [@peekercpa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/peekercpa)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2011, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2291 "2011-08-23T16:05:48Z")
> [@TexCat](#): > > LOL, peeker is always adamant. Doesn’t mean he’s town, and doesn’t mean he’s right. well i am town and sooner or later even a blind pig finds an acorn. ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2011, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2292 "2011-08-23T16:07:53Z")
> [@TexCat](#): > > NAF, I was about to change over to blaster when Inner Stickler came in and said that everyone needed to vote for one of SilverJan, Gnarly, me, or Weedy. Really? No opinions on the game, just we need to vote for one of the 4 people who are likely town? I am waffeling on BlaM which means nothing other than I sometimes have a hard time making up my mind, when I made the switch it was a coin flip who I thought was scummier and I wanted to see what Stickler would do but after that post I think Sticks is scum and BlaM is only likely scum. Sticks, I think, overplayed his hand in his response to you and gave himself away as someone who has not been keeping up, and who has a vested interest in having one of those players he listed lynched. He was also acting a bit like a bully which is somewhat out of character for him, but the writing off of your case like it was not real is also a scum tactic. I am totally fine with the BlaM lynch if that is where the Day goes, particularly if it means one of the claimants doesn’t get lynched, but I think IS is the better lynch of the two. ---
**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2011, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2293 "2011-08-23T16:10:33Z")
Made it to #2000. Og help me, I may be siding with PizzaGuy in #2000. We have 5 messages running around, none concerning their recipients’ targets. As far as I’ve gotten, nobody can claim with certainty Doc or true Cop. Yet we have the trio, TexCat & gnarlycharlie & Weedy, confirming that TexCat and gnarly are masons; plus TexCat is claimed by the other two in that circle to be Town. It seems to me that D2 is too early in the game for Scum to pull the fake-mason gambit if they don’t need to. (But Scum need to be unpredictable.) Given the mason circle, I think TexCat and gnarlycharlie ought to be considered confirmed for now, until we figure out the investigations muddle. I’ll have to see what’s been posted in the last 20+ minutes. I expect far too many posts. ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2011, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2294 "2011-08-23T16:10:59Z")
> [@Normal\_Phase](#): > > You went (paraphrasing slightly) from “it’s worth it to lynch a claimed mason even if we’re wrong” to “it’s not worth it to lynch a claimed mason”. You had a lot of verbiage in the first post explaining why gnarly might be scum prior to that statement, but you still made it. And then you directly contradicted it, with no reason given why IIRC. I don’t see why there being extra claims out there (or anything Pizza said in the post your responded to) changes the math on this. It could change, hypothetically, how likely you find it that gnarly is actually scum, but that’s not what you said your decision was based on, arguably in the first case, definitely in the second. Except that, when I made the first statement, I was only aware of **Idle** ’s, **Ben** ’s, and **Jan** ’s claims of peeks. The second one was made after **Weedy** ’s and **Giraffe** ’s claims. Thus, in the first case, the value of the peeks is considerably higher than in the second case AND there’s more reason to believe the Mason claim because of what **Weedy** said. In short, stronger peeks (and likely that at least one of them was a bold faced lie) vs. a weak mason claim is a completely different situation than weak peeks of which at least one is untrue vs. a strong mason claim by virtue of a third party claim. Jesus, you all are just reading what I said and forgetting that, when I said it, I didn’t have all the information we do now. Big surprise that new information gets revealed and it changes my opinion, apparently. ---
**Author:** ![Inner\_Stickler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/inner_stickler/32/318_2.png) [@Inner\_Stickler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inner_Stickler)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2011, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2295 "2011-08-23T16:12:27Z")
> [@TexCat](#): > > LOL, peeker is always adamant. Doesn’t mean he’s town, and doesn’t mean he’s right. This is particularly funny coming from you. ---
**Author:** ![Episkey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Episkey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Episkey)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2011, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2296 "2011-08-23T16:15:45Z")
This day was a crazy read. I had a long ass post explaining my thoughts on the optimal vote today, but Dancecat recently gave the cliffs version here: > [@Dancecat](#): > > I’m not voting: > > 1. Anybody who claims to have recieved another player’s alignment > 2. Anybody whose alignment has (supposedly) been received by another player > 3. Anybody who has claimed mason > 4. Anybody who has claimed any other power role > 5. Anybody who is extremely unlikely to get lynched, given that the lynch occurs in ~3.5 hours > > I am more likely to vote players who I know made bad votes yesterDay (did I do it right?), and players who have been sitting back and coasting while everyone else tries to sort out the investigation results/claims. > > Now I just have to find out who those people are. 1. We have no idea who has received correct alignment. In the case that there are mystic seers (A chooses Bs investigation, B chooses C’s, C chooses A’s etc) I am not voting for any of them today. 2. We also cannot tell which alignments are correct after a sample size of 1 night. We can start working it out tomorrow with a larger sample. 3. I’m never ever lynching a claimed mason this early. If we get towards the endgame and both are alive then we can reevaluate, but not now. 4. Again, can reevaluate this as the game progresses, but am not lynching anyone like this today. 5. Will not make a useless vote obviously. Vote Blaster Master ---
**Author:** ![Normal\_Phase](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Normal\_Phase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Normal_Phase)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2011, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2297 "2011-08-23T16:16:49Z")
> [@NAF1138](#): > > Ok, I don’t think this got the attention it deserved. > > _ **AHEM! EVERYONE PLEASE TAKE A LOOK AT THE ABOVE QUOTES AND FOLLOW THE LINK BACK TO INNER STICKLERS ORIGINAL VOTE!** _ > > I would like to hear some feedback. I know it’s late in the Day and things are happening fast, but the above looks horrible for Sticky to me. In retrospect that vote looks a lot more potentially opportunistic than it did yesterday, but it didn’t remotely ping me at the time. Inner is like that. I’d like to know why Inner thinks any of Jan, gnarly, or Texcat (or Weedy, as an afterthought – and why is Weedy an afterthought?) is very likely to be scum – that’s the only context in which his near-threat makes any sense. If Inner is scum, I bet Jan is also. ---
**Author:** ![pwnsall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/7feea3/32.png) [@pwnsall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pwnsall)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2011, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2298 "2011-08-23T16:17:10Z")
sigh, anyone want to quote this **mykbot** post that **tex** misrepresented or whatever? ---
**Author:** ![Inner\_Stickler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/inner_stickler/32/318_2.png) [@Inner\_Stickler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inner_Stickler)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2011, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2299 "2011-08-23T16:17:56Z")
> [@NAF1138](#): > > Sticks, I think, overplayed his hand in his response to you and gave himself away as someone who has not been keeping up, and who has a vested interest in having one of those players he listed lynched. He was also acting a bit like a bully which is somewhat out of character for him, but the writing off of your case like it was not real is also a scum tactic. I haven’t overplayed anything but your sudden interest in Texcat’s fixation intrigues me. I’ve been keeping up a hell of a lot more than half the players here. Pretty much the entire conversation that has happened on this last page is a retread of the conversation from last night. We got a bunch of alignment claims and everyone seems to think they should all be hands-off. I want to jump in the middle and get some answers. ---
**Author:** ![Normal\_Phase](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Normal\_Phase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Normal_Phase)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2011, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2300 "2011-08-23T16:18:24Z")
Hello, pwnsall, who are you subbing in for? ---
**Author:** ![pwnsall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/7feea3/32.png) [@pwnsall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pwnsall)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2011, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2301 "2011-08-23T16:20:07Z")
**Timelady** I read through her posts a bit but it seems to be mostly talking about game mechanics [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025.md?page=114) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025.md?page=116)