# Mystery Mafia -- Game Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [August 17, 2011, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025 "2011-08-17T14:03:37Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 146
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2011, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2902 "2011-08-24T21:40:51Z")
> [@Scathach](#): > > I’m going to > \*\*Vote Sangaman \*\* for PIS. > > I’m also going to reveal that I targeted Dancecat Night 1 and Special Ed Night 2. Reason I’m revealing is SpecialEd said he felt “healthy.” However given that Dancecat didn’t say anything yesterday I’m not sure it proves anything. > > Reason I’m revealing it now is: > A: PCM said that he got the apothecary role last night. But if that’s me then I don’t see how he would get that knowledge? > B. AskThePizzaGuy is claiming to be the Poisoner - if I’m the “apothecary” and town (you’ll have to take my word on that one I’m afraid), then why is the poisoner also town? Seems almost definitely 3rd party or Scum to me. > C.The obvious way to test this is to target Brewha tonight, but a good few people are finding him scummy and god knows my scum-radar isn’t the best, so I’m leaving the information out for town to decide what to do with it. Let Brewha die and see what his alignment is first. I’ll refrain from poisoning if he flips townie. ---
**Author:** ![Idle\_Thoughts](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/838e76/32.png) [@Idle\_Thoughts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Idle_Thoughts)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2011, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2903 "2011-08-24T21:41:08Z")
> [@Silver\_Jan](#): > > So why do you think\*\* I\*\* blocked you??? Well, I’m not positive, obviously, but you said you targeted me! On preview: Nevermind. I’ll wait until tomorrow. ---
**Author:** ![Precambrianmollusc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/precambrianmollusc/32/63_2.png) [@Precambrianmollusc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Precambrianmollusc)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2011, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2904 "2011-08-24T21:43:38Z")
Sangman was 2nd vote on Krazy, did not vote for Blastermaster or inner Stickler and didn’t join in the GnarlyCharly waggon after SilverJan accused GC of being scum. I honestly don’t know if something can be concluded from that. ---
**Author:** ![Giraffe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/giraffe/32/129_2.png) [@Giraffe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Giraffe)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2011, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2905 "2011-08-24T21:44:40Z")
> [@Askthepizzaguy](#): > > More as my brain generates useful thoughts. Your comments? I agree with your thinking. Note that I also received an alignment message last Night (saying pwnsall is Town), so we have one more reported message toDay by my count than we did yesterDay (if we subtract out the dead Criers). ---
**Author:** ![Idle\_Thoughts](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/838e76/32.png) [@Idle\_Thoughts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Idle_Thoughts)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2011, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2906 "2011-08-24T21:45:38Z")
> [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > Here is my issue with this. Surprise plus a pat on the back for the first sentence. Same as [Giraffe](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14178857&postcount=2884). What’s your point? > [@](#): > > Also, it isn’t a huge leap to make. The one-fourth rule **would suggest 6 or 7,** and I can imagine extra scum to balance out all of the power roles flying around. The bolded part is my point. If he had said “6 or 7” or “8 or 9”, I wouldn’t have voted (and I doubt **Sub** would have pointed it out). > [@](#): > > And your response pinged me a bit. And coming off from the **Brewha** vote, admit it. : p (who I still think is the most suspicious person personally, aside from the slip **Sanga** seemed to make). ---
**Author:** ![Scathach](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aeb1de/32.png) [@Scathach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scathach)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2011, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2907 "2011-08-24T21:47:24Z")
> [@Askthepizzaguy](#): > > Let Brewha die and see what his alignment is first. > > I’ll refrain from poisoning if he flips townie. You can’t. Gadarene said Night Actions will be randed if you don’t submit a target. ---
**Author:** ![Drain\_Bead](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e47774/32.png) [@Drain\_Bead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Drain_Bead)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2011, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2908 "2011-08-24T21:48:03Z")
I thought I was the doubler, as I also targeted Ben N1. Made my 2nd target based on that guess. Hope I didn’t screw something up. Wonder if my “first person to point out a PIS slip is Scum” theory will hold true here? ---
**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2011, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2909 "2011-08-24T21:48:12Z")
> [@Idle\_Thoughts](#): > > Same as [Giraffe](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14178857&postcount=2884). What’s your point? I missed Giraffe’s post. I’ve been reading from my phone when I get a moment at work so I don’t fall as far behind. Ultimately, I need to review Giraffe again in light of the new flips. I thought he was suspicious yesterday, so I’ll gladly consider him hopping on a PIS slip suspicious too. ---
**Author:** ![LightFoot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/8e8cbc/32.png) [@LightFoot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LightFoot)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2011, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2910 "2011-08-24T21:50:03Z")
Since it was brought up and I was already working on this…….Day One **BLam** First post a KNOWN SCUM giving us numbers > [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > Wow, you guys have been busy. FFR, Wednesdays tend to be bad for me, so I haven’t read anything yet, but I’m going to try to spend some time over the next several hours to read and catch up. That said, some initial thoughts: > > We have 37 players, so going with the two rules of thumb for scum, square-root as a lower bound and a quarter as the upper bound, we’re looking at 6-9 total scum for a typical game. Now, since everyone has a role, depending on assumptions about those distributions, we can get other estimates. With so many roles, I would be surprised if at least one isn’t a vig-type role. I’d also be surprised if we don’t have some sort of PFK that could result in additional kills. So we’re looking at at least 2-3 night kills right there (including the typical scum one). Also considering that we’re likely to have at least 1-2 doctors and 1-2 roleblockers, and that our illustrious mod promise some quick trimming of the ranks, I wouldn’t be too terribly surprised if there’s more, possibly even a scum hitman. > > So, I guess my estimate would be to expect 3-4 attempted night kills. If scum have a hitman, we’re probably looking at the lower end of their numbers, say 6-7, and if they don’t, we’re probably looking more at the upper end, say 8-9. > > Anyway, unsure if any of that has been discussed yet, so I’ll comment further as I read through. First rattle out of the box “guesses” how many Scum and options a Hitman [spoiler] > [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > Okay, just finished the first page, but I’ve already got a couple things to say. > > First… wow. Dude, BAD idea that seems like a good one. Yes, it provides information to the town that we might be able to use, but it provides even more information to scum. It runs a severe risk of outting important roles, particularly the doctor. I don’t think knowing who the doctor is helps the town at all, but it’s very valuable to the scum. > > Imagine this scenario, the scum target a player, whether the targets are given the day before or the day after, they can potentially eliminate everyone who targetted that person as a doctor if they die. Or imagine that person survives, they can potentially assume that one of the people who targetted that person is a doctor. > > Now, of course, there’s a lot of complications to this, like potential redirections, roleblocking, and all that, but with the additional information that scum have, including that they can lie about their targets, I don’t see how it helps. > > It’s the best read I see on the first page, so… > > **vote NAF** > > Also, another comment is I see the people calling out **MykBot** for a “soft-clear”. I don’t really get it. From my previous experience, though it’s counter-intuitive, it’s generally better practice to look for townie tells and eliminate them from your votes than to look for scum tells and vote for the scummiest. > > Consider that, especially on day one, any vote, with the exception of scum and possibly whoever got a night result, will be not a whole lot different from pure random. As such, if one can eliminate certain individuals with some decent reason, one reduces the pool in which that randomness is selected, thus improving the chances of hitting scum. > > That said, I generally don’t agree with publicizing soft-tells because they’re generally not particularly useful to anyone else if you’re town, but can be used coercively by scum for pro-town rubs when those individuals are lynched. However, considering the culture difference and that it seems others have said it’s something he does, if he reevaluates them later and they don’t give any credence to those rubs, I see it primarily as a null-tell. Anyway, more to come, even though this is probably all outdated later in the thread… > [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > I see the NAF has since abandoned his idea with further discussion. I’m willing to give benefit of the doubt on that. > > **unvote NAF** > > The interaction between **Idle** and **dancecat** seems off to me. That is, his initial statement seems sort of off logically, but so does her reaction to it. I’m not really sure what to think of it, so just consider both of you FOSed at this point. Maybe something about it will better materialize as I keep catching up. > > BTW, do we still use the term FOS here? I haven’t seen it in this thread yet, which seems to mean maybe it stopped getting used. > [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > On further reflection of all of this sort of stuff, I think it depends. I think our goal should be to try to help power roles figure out who they are in a way that doesn’t help the scum. Consider that, though the scum have more information than we do, their information is about alignment. What they don’t know is who we target, which we can use sort in a sort of open-key type of communication. I think this would make the most sense with an example. > > Imagine the doctor leaves a note that he protected someone, it is probably worthwhile to reveal that information assuming that we don’t reveal who we target. I think it minimally provides equal information to both which, as was touched on, is an advantage to town, but most likely is ultimately more information to town. > > Let’s say someone is targetted. Considering that I think most of the discussion has agreed that we should target suspicious people (and I agree), and that person claims they were protected. Sure, if scum targetted them, they may now have reason to think they have a scum doctor, but they’re likely to figure it out at some point. Plus, a scum doctor isn’t something we should be too terrified of because we shouldn’t be depending on vigs/sks to take out scum. > > On the plus side, only the town knows who they targetted. They know that if they didn’t target that person, they’re less likely to be the doctor, and if they did, then they’re more likely to be the doctor. Thus, not only does the doctor gain knowledge about who he is without the scum having any leads to it (unless maybe they happened to overlay a track on that person), but he can then start using that role on people he suspects are townie, thus taking a potentially wasted role, or worse, one that could accidentally prevent a vig/sk from killing scum and start making it useful by potentially protecting a townie from vig/sk/scum kills. > In the case of a roleblock, this information probably isn’t really worth sharing, because it’s something we want to use on scum anyway, so a roleblocker knowing that doesn’t really give them any usable information and we risk the chance of giving scum information that is probably quite valuable to them. > For other roles, this could be more difficult to discern. What if people know they were redirected or tracked or watched or investigated or their role was revealed? I don’t really have the time to go through the permutations, but I think it is something that we ought to take into account based upon what information is revealed and I don’t really know what else to say besides that we just need to trust that people will make a good choice with whether or not to share it, just like in any other game how we need to trust power roles to make good choices about protections and investigations. #673 mentions \*\* peeker\*\* basically going for Town cred. . #708 part of the ‘bad idea discussion’ semi justifies vote [/spoiler] I don’t see anything here really? > [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > Underlining mine. > > Did anyone else catch this? I’m not sure what to think of it. This stuck out to me, but I was going to post about it when I fully caught up, then I saw speculation that **Krayz** may be the fool, so I think this is more relevant. > > Personally, I can’t see any reason why the fool would straight up out himself except as a little WIFOM. And this stuck out to me because he’s the one I’m most suspicious of for the opportunistic votes on both **peeker** and **Krayz**. Starts on Scuba\_Ben ^^ > [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > Okay, finally caught up, and I have a few more things to add. > > I’m inclined to agree with the reasoning earlier that the distributions of votes seems to indicate that it’s likely one or more of the leading candidates at the time was scum. This, along with **scuba\_ben** ’s shifty voting pattern, which appears opportunistic makes me suspicious of him. The most suspicious thing, however, is that after switching off of **Krayz** , he specifically mentions he doesn’t feel those wagons, and then jumps right back on. So, he’s definitely my number one scum candidate. > > That said, there’s little time left in the day, and I don’t feel like there’s enough time to really make that case, so I’ll leave it off as something to look into tomorrow. Instead, given the wagon distribution, I think one of the leading candidates is scum, and so I also agree that we need to try to consolidate on one of the leaders. > > To that end, I’ve already expressed my discontent with the **Krayz** and **peeker** wagons, so I’m not going to look at them. The other options are **TexCat** and **Silver Jan**. Running with these two ideas, I think the best place for my vote is one of these two. **TexCat** ’s vote mostly looks like an OMGUS to me, but **Silver Jan** is also on the **peeker** wagon with a sort of me too attitude. As such, of the leading candidates, I’m most suspicious of her, so… > > **Vote Silver Jan** More voting and Town cred crumbs I’m excluding the game mechanics and prior game comments that I don’t see anything in. (aren’t you glad?) Although most of them at this point seem to be ‘chatting up’ **NAF** END OF DAY ONE ---
**Author:** ![Normal\_Phase](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Normal\_Phase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Normal_Phase)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2011, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2911 "2011-08-24T21:51:09Z")
> [@Askthepizzaguy](#): > > Paranoid cop is a sort of bastard role, as is the naive cop. I think I’ve gotten results from a paranoid or insane cop here. Assume insane, due to the bastardness of paranoid cops, and because we have a cluster of guilty results, and the odds of being right on all of them are long. Maybe you explain down below, but why could neither be correct? Or at least, why do you think the odds are less, given the statement I chopped out about not letting them live through the game. > [@](#): > > Because of this, and the fact that it does not say that his results will be given out to some random person, I do not believe that Inner Stickler sent me these results. > > I wonder if Inner Stickler breadcrumbed the results he was getting somewhere. I trust his results, I think he was a sane cop. Maybe. Agree, and see previous comment. > [@](#): > > Second, I think I can toss out the Dethy setup as being the exact idea here. Since I had a sane town crier dead and a likely sane beat cop dead, and since gnarly was revealed as “wolf” yesterday but I’m not sure I believe that, I think I can’t trust at least one of the results I was given. > > I think that a paranoid or insane cop is giving me results on one or both of these folks. I am not sure how many more sane cop-like roles would exist in a game like this and still be fair. All right, one or both, ok. And don’t forget “random cop”. > [@](#): > > [ul] > [li]**If your action was on gnarlycharlie 2 nights ago, \*and \*last night you targeted one of the players I am going to reveal this round, then you are either an EXTREMELY lucky sane cop (doubtful), an unfortunately useless paranoid cop, or you are an insane cop (As useful as a sane cop) that has cleared two townies as being innocent, but reading guilty.**[/li][/ul] If said player ever generates a town result, they should strongly consider stepping forward and asking for all night interactions with the player involved, especially the later in the game it happens (at this point random is still an option I think, and cops won’t want to out themselves regardless). ---
**Author:** ![special\_ed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5ac83/32.png) [@special\_ed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/special_ed)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2011, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2912 "2011-08-24T21:54:23Z")
> [@Scathach](#): > > I’m going to > \*\*Vote Sangaman \*\* for PIS. > > I’m also going to reveal that I targeted Dancecat Night 1 and Special Ed Night 2. Reason I’m revealing is SpecialEd said he felt “healthy.” However given that Dancecat didn’t say anything yesterday I’m not sure it proves anything. > > Reason I’m revealing it now is: > A: PCM said that he got the apothecary role last night. But if that’s me then I don’t see how he would get that knowledge? > B. AskThePizzaGuy is claiming to be the Poisoner - if I’m the “apothecary” and town (you’ll have to take my word on that one I’m afraid), then why is the poisoner also town? Seems almost definitely 3rd party or Scum to me. > C.The obvious way to test this is to target Brewha tonight, but a good few people are finding him scummy and god knows my scum-radar isn’t the best, so I’m leaving the information out for town to decide what to do with it. But why allow the Scum to know you have a protective power if you are Town? If that’s what you might have? Won’t they want you dead? ---
**Author:** ![Gadarene](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Gadarene](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gadarene)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2011, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2913 "2011-08-24T21:54:58Z")
> [@Scathach](#): > > You can’t. Gadarene said Night Actions will be randed if you don’t submit a target. **MODERATOR NOTE** Correctamundo. ---
**Author:** ![Scathach](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aeb1de/32.png) [@Scathach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scathach)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2011, 9:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2914 "2011-08-24T21:58:46Z")
> [@special\_ed](#): > > But why allow the Scum to know you have a protective power if you are Town? If that’s what you might have? > > Won’t they want you dead? Because if’s a curing poison role (special ed said healthy, not protected) - then I think that makes AskThePizzaGuy look odd. Why would a poisoner be town if there’s a town role to cure poison? ---
**Author:** ![Precambrianmollusc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/precambrianmollusc/32/63_2.png) [@Precambrianmollusc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Precambrianmollusc)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2011, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2915 "2011-08-24T22:00:19Z")
> [@Scathach](#): > > I’m going to > \*\*Vote Sangaman \*\* for PIS. > Reason I’m revealing it now is: > A: PCM said that he got the apothecary role last night. But if that’s me then I don’t see how he would get that knowledge? > . ScatHach - I did not claim I was the Apothcary. In post 2754 I tried to explain. > [@](#): > > Last night I was told I had a role (x) and an alignment (town). > However that role as described is not consistent with the results I received the night before. In addition I also recieved a result last nigh that was consistent with the prior nights result. So it appears I was told someone elses role and alignment, but it had my name at the begining. > That’s what I know. Night one I recieved a result which would indicate a role Night two I receievd a result which was consistent with night one result Night two I was also told I was the apothcary with its associated powers. Assuming you are tellling the truth My theory is that someone with a role that can tell the target what their role is targeted you, and somehow that got redirected to me with my name at the beginning. I discount the chance that it is me because of teh other two results i had which we consistant, and consistant with who I targeted. Thinking as I type this, Not sure why a role teller would need to tell the target what their alignment is. sigh. ---
**Author:** ![LightFoot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/8e8cbc/32.png) [@LightFoot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LightFoot)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2011, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2916 "2011-08-24T22:04:55Z")
\*\* BLaM \*\* continued (perhaps you can see what I didn’t) [spoiler] > [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > **Wow, losing our Vig sucks bit time. But there’s three kills so, presuming one was a scum kill, does that mean we have another Vig, a scum hitman, or a PFK?** > > Anyway, to continue my suspicion from Yesterday, I’m going to open with a vote. I’m still suspicious of Scuba\_Ben for the same reasons, the shifty voting, particularly off of and back onto a vote leader after expressing a townie feel for him. I was waiting around to see the start of day, but I don’t really have enough time to go back and look up the particular posts, but I can later if anyone really needs it. Either way… > > **vote Scuba\_Ben** > > I still have to go back and take another look at what the alignments of the dead reveals, particularly since a scum was hit, so that may change, but I definitely want to hear more from him over it. [/spoiler] Bold and underlined mine ( he mentions this again) > [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > Bah… I preview, I see **Inner Stickler** already beat me to the colored vote count, so I deleted that. > > Okay, I really have to head home now, but some quick observations. > > 1. **Mahaloth** is on **Krayz** , so there was scum on that wagon. Was he there because it was an easy vote or because he was protecting scum that was another vote leader? I think this leads credence to the idea that one of the top vote getters was scum. > > 2. **Silman** did not vote and had no votes on him. Maybe scum targetted him hoping to give no info away? Maybe he looked suspicious and was targetted by town for not having voted? Maybe a PFK targetted him knowing it would leave no trail? I think it’s a wash where it might have come from. > > 3. **Guiri** voted for **Scathach** but was the only one to do so and it was early in the day. If it was targetted by scum, I don’t think it says anything either way for **Scathach**. I’m not really sure what it means if he was killed by someone else. > Long story short, I’m even more suspicious of the **Krayz** wagon. So, on top of my reasons from Yesterday, this makes me even more suspicious of **Scuba\_Ben** since **Krayz** is the one he switched off of, said he had a townie lean on, then switched back onto. > > I also think this means we need to look at the other top vote-getters closer, **TexCat** , **peeker** , and **Silver Jan**. If the **Krayz** wagon was created by scum, it’s likely that it was to protect one of them. > [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > This is a misunderstanding or possibly just a complete miss of my reasoning that I made in the Day. Admittedly, the timing of some of my posts seems off, but I didn’t want to read 15 pages or however many it was at the time before posting, I wanted to start picking things that seemed relevant out as I saw them. Here’s where I commented on pressure voting at a later point in the Day. > > The key distinction is that in M2 I believed that Bad Idea = Scum Tell. Being brand new to the game, I figured that anything that hurt the town was probably done by scum. What I learned after that whole situation was sorted out is that Bad Idea = Null Tell. That is, scum still has motivation to present bad ideas because if they can get the town to do something stupid, it helps them. But, at the same time, sometimes a townie has a bad idea simply because they didn’t think through all of the possible outcomes or there’s some permutation they didn’t consider or whatever. Thus, the bad idea by itself doesn’t mean anything. > > This is where my vote came in it. I thought it was a bad idea and, in fact, I thought it was fairly obviously a bad idea. One can point out things and sometimes they get lost, especially in a fast moving thread like this, but putting a vote behind it makes it stick out and requires some sort of response. I’ve done this to great effect in the past; in fact, I’ve even done it specifically to **NAF** before. By getting him to talk about it, we get greater exposure to the thought process behind it and, thus, more opportunities for him to either reveal consistent townie logic or possible scummy motivation. > > I subsequently unvoted him because he realized it was a bad idea and abandoned it, which I felt was consistent with pro-town motivation and, thus, left the whole thing as a null tell. Either way, raising discussion about something like that is ultimately going to be more fruitful in getting reads on people, not just him, but also on other people that weigh in on the discussion. > > Anyway, the underlying point here is that though I learned that it isn’t a scum tell, that doesn’t mean it isn’t worth further discussion and isn’t worth a pressure vote to get that discussion. > [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > I have to agree. This exchange with **Idle** bothers me on a few levels. > > 1. We have no way of knowing if **Idle** is being honest or not. We have no way of knowing without someone else claiming they targeted him, which may or may not be in their best interest, so I would leave it up to them to decide, particularly if it wasn’t **Dancecat**. > > 2. Even if **Idle** is telling the truth, we have no way of knowing if the note is trustworthy. Particularly since **Idle** claims it isn’t part of his power, we already know that there’s other complicating factors at work, so there could be redirections, misreads, or any number of other things involved. > My point is, it’s an interesting data point, but I don’t think we can make much sense of it right now and it probably needs more context to be worth anything. I do think it’s good information for the town to share so I would likely recommend that if anyone else has a similar message they should consider sharing it. And if no one else does, assuming the power repeats Tonight, whoever gets it should also consider sharing it. I didn’t catch anything here but dare not leave it out[spoiler] > [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > Frankly, I think this whole line of reasoning is WIFOM. With my estimate of 6-9 scum Yesterday, there’s a pretty darn good probability that there’s both Dopers and other-boarders on the scum team. Figuring out who made the suggestion doesn’t really help us at all. Figure we can even say with certainty that it was a Doper who made the suggestion, that doesn’t help us at all because it’s fully expected, well above chance, that there’s a Doper on the scum team, so it gives us no more information than simply guessing at random. So, IMO, trying to figure out whether it was an other-boarder or doper is fruitless. > > What we can glean, though, is that both dopers and other-boarders as scum had potential reasons to want him dead so, assuming that the scum kill wasn’t blocked, which was unlikely, then **Guiri** was probably more likely to be their team kill than **Silnam**. And from that, we can glean that **Silnam** ’s death is likely not a scum team kill, and thus could be another vig, or an sk, or a hitman. I’m not sure how useful that info is, but it is what it is. > [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > Interesting quote from **Silman** you have there. But if you’re correct, then that means that there’s good scum motivation for killing both non-scum targets last Night. I think that raises the probability that scum have a Hitman and, if they do, they likely know who he is as well. Ugh… [/spoiler] Here’s what appears to be some TMI (and there is that hitman again X2) See below again with the # of Scum “estimated” > [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > Catching up, so I dunno if this has been addressed, but I just don’t think your reasoning is solid here. Even running with the assumption that both of those reads are correct and with the maximum reasonable number of scum I theorized of 9, that’s still a 28/37 chance that either read is correct just by pure dumb luck. That’s a 57.3% chance that both reads would be correct even without any knowledge. IOW, you’re clearing someone as that 57.3% likely to be town who, based on random, has a 75.7% chance without that conditional. And that’s with the worst case set of assumptions; the disparity would be greater with an assumption of less than the maximum number of possible scum. > > Further, we know from **Gadarene** that only one action on Night Zero went through and while it’s possible that the seer was that action, he wouldn’t have had two reads on other players, he only would have had one. IOW, giving two strong potential cop readings on Day 1 ought to have been a sign that he WASN’T a cop. > > So, in order for it to say anything about **SubPlank** , we have to assume that it’s a correct read and \*\*thus the scum thought Silman was a cop, which they shouldn’t have thought. \*\* And even if we assume that, that all has a lower chance of happening as a way of clearing him than simply assuming based upon the game setup. > Honestly, it seems to me that your reasoning is circular–which now that I think about it makes me suspicious–in that you seem to know that he’s town or that the scum targetted Silman and then using that to soft-clear him. > [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > A possibility, it was noted that **Mahaloth** was shot and poisoned. It is reasonable to assume that the shot was from the vigiliante. The poison may or may not have been the result of last night though. It is possible that poison is a delayed death effect and that it was, in fact, the Night Zero action that went through. As such, it is possible that, if someone targeted him on Night Zero, that they are actually the poisoner and that whoever they targeted last Night will die tonight. > > Of course, it may just be color that Gadarene used to help make it easier to figure out who killed who and it wasn’t a delayed effect. I imagine this will be cleared up after tonight though. Bolding and underlining mine More insight to the Scum’s camp? > [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > At least if you’re going to vote for me for my vote, at least represent it correctly. My case against **Ben** is a lot more than that: > > 1. It’s likely the **Krayz** ’s wagon was built to save scum, he was on that wagon third. > 2. He unvoted once the wagon was in the lead. > 3. He subsequently said that he didn’t find **Krayz** (or **peeker** ) to be scummy. > 4. Other votes started coming onto the top vote getters and he revoted for **Krayz**. > > I will quote the specific posts when I finish catching up. But at least do your homework next time and represent my case correctly. > As for **Silver Jan** , I believed she was the scummiest of the top vote-getters Yesterday, but I’d already made it clear I would have voted for **Ben** if I thought I’d have had time to convince others. > Frankly, this is just lazy. Below is his response to \*\* peeker\*\* regarding \*\* MykBot’s \*\* apparent absence [spoiler] > [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > First of all, it’s the weekend, it’s possible he is busy, I’d be more inclined to believe you if he fails to post at all. > > Second, FTR, a silence ability sounds much more like a scum power than a town power. I just don’t see how preventing someone from talking can possibly benefit the town at all, but it can definitely benefit scum. It may or may not exist in the game, but if it does I’d be surprised if scum had it. > > Third, even if he is silenced, there’s no guarantee that you were the only one that targeted him. At this point, there could be other factors at play that are impossible to predict. > That said, if you think you do have a silence ability, the only pro-town way I can imagine to use it would be to maybe silence someone you think is scummy so they don’t drown out conversation; hell, if you can silence, it may even prevent them from voting. [/spoiler] Would Scum TMI that? Could be…. In response to \*\* Weedy \*\* stating that \*\*Ben \*\* is probably town [spoiler] > [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > Wait, what? What about the wagon means he’s probably town? I think I made a pretty damn good case and I know I wasn’t the only one that found his behavior suspicious Yesterday and it’s much more bizarre once it’s been fleshed out. > > So, if you think he’s probably town, I’d like to see an argument from you to illustrate that point or at least tell me where in my analysis I went wrong. [/spoiler] #1641 he sort thinks \*\* Pizza \*\* is Town #1656 suspicious of \*\* Weedy \*\* Talking to \*\* Pizza \*\* [spoiler] > [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > Nice that you’re not convinced with my case. > Do you think you can tell me what about it you don’t like. And I’ll reciprocate with why I’m not convinced by your **brewha** case as it seems to hinge largely on his fluffiness when the pace of the game thus far has been beyond what I think many people expressed. I’ve got essentially zero read on him thus far where as I have some pretty clear patterns of behavior for **Ben**. [/spoiler] Here is at \*\* SilverJan \*\* [spoiler] > [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > This whole Magic Bag thing rubs me the wrong way, as as you’re one of the people I think the **Krayz** wagon may have been constructed to save. Frankly, I’m inclined to believe you’re saying you have this information because you know you’re probably next on the block, especially if **Ben** flips scum and you’re the scum he and **Mahaloth** were trying to save. > > However, you identify someone as a wolf, which means if you’re telling the truth, he’s a wolf and we should lynch him if he’s not a wolf, then you’re lying and thus you’re a wolf (or a PFK) and we should lynch you. So, tell us, why should we lynch him first and not you since, between the two of you, you’re the only one I have a read on, and it’s bad. > [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > Wait, guys, why the sudden switch? There’s no reason to believe **Silver Jan** over, inevitably, **GnarlyCharlie** ’s “she’s lying” response. If she’s telling the truth, and we lynch him first, great. If she’s lying and he turns up town, then we just lynch her Tomorrow. Her claim doesn’t tell us anything by itself and cannot be verified without lynching someone else. > > That said, since we now know that one of them is definitely a wolf, I think it’s probably in our best interest to lynch one of them Today, and we can always lynch **Scuba\_Ben** later; however, I don’t think it should necessarily follow that it should be **GnarlyCharlie** and not **Silver Jan** , and I’m inclined toward the latter. So… > > **Vote Silver Jan** > > Bottom line, you may be a Seer , but at this point you’re not doing us any good since the scum already know if you’re lying or not, so you might as well not hold the magic bag and tell us what you know without obfuscation. > [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > Look, she has a Magic Bag and, how she’s talking about it, it doesn’t sound like a peek. The point is, if she IS a seer, the scum already know if **GnarlyCharlie** is a wolf or not. She needs to give us an unambiguous reason why he’s a wolf so we can appropriately determine the strength of the dichotomy here. Hell, for all I know, she saw him target one of the Townies that died last Night and assumed that he must have been a Wolf because he targetted them, but he was targetting him for other reasons. > > But at this point, I have no way of knowing if it’s real or not, or if it’s really even a peek, so there’s no way of assessing the risk. Instead, I believe all we do know is that one is Wolf and one is not, so I should vote for the one of the two I am most inclined to believe is a Wolf. Her as a possible alternative to the **Krayz** wagon Yesterday whereas I have no read on **GnarlyCharlie** , I’m inclined to think it’s her. > > If she’s going to claim Seer, fine, I’m willing to lynch **GnarlyCharlie** , because we’ll have a true dichotomy and, on preview, as I see septimus also claimed to have been protected last Night in addition to **NAF** , we likely have two doctors who can keep her alive for an indefinite amount of time. > > Regardless, as long as it’s a Magic Bag and not an actual claim, all it’s going to do is create confusion wherein the only ones who know what’s actually going on here is the scum. > [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > I’m not going to automatically give credence to a Magic Bag. The wolves know if she’s honest or not already, because they know the alignments, keeping the Magic Bag doesn’t help us. > > That said, I’m not averse to lynching **GnarlyCharlie** , I just don’t want us to automatically just believe a Magic Bag claim, I at least want some discussion about it. > [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > Okay, I see that **Jan** gave us more. So, **Jan** , did you get two results? It seems like the others who got messages also claimed they got a result or non-result. > > I’m also not really comfortable lynching a supposed mason, especially since he hasn’t been in to actually make a claim. > Anyway, now that I’m a bit less panicked, here’s what I think might be happening. Either **Jan** is scum and saw the message that **Idle** claimed and her (and **Ben** , whom I’d theorize is her scum partner) thought they were caught and figured they could at least drag someone down with them. The other possibility is that she’s telling the truth and the scum think she’s the Seer, so **TexCat** panicked and claimed mason with **Gnarly** to try to get us to lynch her first instead. > > Overall, I’m thinking we have either a **TexCat/Gnarly** scum pair or **Ben/Jan** pair. > Anyway, in light of this new information and Jan opening her bag, I’ll unvote… > > **Unvote Silver Jan** [/spoiler] > [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > I agree. I think at this point I’m inclined to believe that the Mason claim seems a little convenient. Not to mention, **TexCat** was another possible person that the **Krayz** wagon may have been engineered to save, so it’s not unlikely that she saw this claim, knowing that it would largely clear **Jan** , and that **Ben** would probably still go down eventually, so she would be the obvious candidate for who the **Krayz** wagon was saved. So, she might as well put her neck on the line now and hope to get a potential Seer dead. > > The risk here is losing a possible mason, but it also seems to be a pretty good fit for the events of Yesterday and Today. So, we need to settle this out. I’d still like to hear from **Charlie** though. > > **Vote GnarlyCharlie** > > Hey, big surprise given your earlier lazy vote, that you’d rather put it on me than resolve a fairly obvious scenario where we can catch two scum. An awful lot of smudging on me with no substance at all since you voted me earlier in the day for my vote on **Ben**. You’re striking me as an overly defensive scum seeing his team going down in flames right now. I’ll have to do an analysis of you after we get all this crap sorted out. After **Charlie** now Order of Scumminess > [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > I just saw this from posting, so… I’ll bite. > > Silver Jan > TexCat > Gnarlycharlie > Dancecat > Blaster Master > That’s conditional on the fact that I’m still a few hundred posts behind so I haven’t seen all of the developments. Not sure there is anything here > [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > I’m not sure what you want me to explain. I don’t really have the context for the first one, but IIRC, Jan had revealed her secret bag and I still felt like it was in our best interest to make sense of her message. I believe this was also before **Weedy** gave her message about **TexCat** or **Giraffe** gave the message about me. So, if I remember my thought process then, I still thought that the **Krayz** wagon was to protect one of **TexCat** or **Silver Jan** and we had a conflicting claim between the two that meant that we probably had 2 wolves vs 2 wolves. **Gnarly** hadn’t commented yet either to confirm **TexCat** ’s claim. > The second post is after realizing that we had a lot more claims going out, whereas in the first one, I believe we only had 3, and I wouldn’t have been surprised if some of those were lies. With 5 reads out there now, it becomes a lot more likely that there’s something else going on. > So, I can only assume you’re seeing some conflict because you’re taking my opinions of the current information out of the context of what information was actually revealed. And, quite frankly, I was struggling last Night trying to keep up and make sense of what was going on and, unfortunately, I had other obligations that I couldn’t stay on all Night and wait for it all to get resolved. Hell, I’m still catching up, so I’m still not sure that my current idea of what the claims are is accurate. Swan song [spoiler] > [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > Ah, Jesus… I give up, every time I check I have another vote on me and they’re all ridiculous. Screw it, it’s not worth catching up if I’m just gonna get wagoned, I’ve just wasted the morning trying to read and catch up only to get lynched for stupid reasons. > sachetorte made his vote against me for misunderstanding my night post, then got subbed out. Worthless vote. > Septimus makes a lazy vote on me, keeps insisting it isn’t, but won’t say why it isn’t. > NAF just quotes some of my posts, out of context, and says they’re scummy, and only after promising it… weak delivery > dancecat with a self-defense vote > Normal Phase jumping on NAF’s reasons > and episkey to break up the reads, which is just silly > > So, of all of these, only one of them is actually on stuff I did in game, and it was taken out of context. I guarantee you there’s scum on this wagon, and they probably want to lend credence to the reads when I come up town because the rest of the mess has scum finger prints on it. > > I also wouldn’t be surprised if they want to save **Scuba\_Ben** because what he said about his power boost is true, and lynching the guy that took the time to make the case against him, especially in light of all these reads will probably help him slip back out of suspicion until it’s all sorted out. > > And for the sake of contributing what little I can, I targeted Giraffe last night, which I think is why he got the read of me, so whichever cop targeted me, that’s probably how your power works. Also, I have no idea what my power does, I didn’t get any response. > > I probably won’t bother to check in again until Dusk, since there doesn’t seem to be a point. [/spoiler] ---
**Author:** ![LightFoot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/8e8cbc/32.png) [@LightFoot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LightFoot)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2011, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2917 "2011-08-24T22:13:55Z")
NETA I’m not asking anyone to ‘do my homework’ now that I have it all in one place I can pour over it With the Data compiled other eyes might see things I missed. And since the “ set number of Scum event “ I thought some of this was relevant at this time. ---
**Author:** ![Normal\_Phase](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Normal\_Phase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Normal_Phase)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2011, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2918 "2011-08-24T22:24:47Z")
The second post is illuminating, if mostly in retrospect: > [@](#): > > Originally Posted by Blaster Master View Post > Bah… I preview, I see Inner Stickler already beat me to the colored vote count, so I deleted that. > > Okay, I really have to head home now, but some quick observations. > > 1. Mahaloth is on Krayz, so there was scum on that wagon. Was he there because it was an easy vote or because he was protecting scum that was another vote leader? I think this leads credence to the idea that one of the top vote getters was scum. Those were peeker, Texcat and Silver Jan IIRC (am I forgetting anyone)? All looking pretty townie right now (or known to be). > [@](#): > > 1. Silman did not vote and had no votes on him. Maybe scum targetted him hoping to give no info away? Maybe he looked suspicious and was targetted by town for not having voted? Maybe a PFK targetted him knowing it would leave no trail? I think it’s a wash where it might have come from. > > 2. Guiri voted for Scathach but was the only one to do so and it was early in the day. If it was targetted by scum, I don’t think it says anything either way for Scathach. I’m not really sure what it means if he was killed by someone else. Not sure what this is in reference to, but the “not really sure” is rather noncommittal compared to his surety everywhere else. One more point against scathach I think. > [@](#): > > Long story short, I’m even more suspicious of the Krayz wagon. So, on top of my reasons from Yesterday, this makes me even more suspicious of Scuba\_Ben since Krayz is the one he switched off of, said he had a townie lean on, then switched back onto. > > I also think this means we need to look at the other top vote-getters closer, TexCat, peeker, and Silver Jan. If the Krayz wagon was created by scum, it’s likely that it was to protect one of them. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2011, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2919 "2011-08-24T23:02:42Z")
> [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > The quotes I have are “I feel strangely safe this morning. I don’t know why” ( **NAF1138** , Post 1108) and “I also enjoyed some kindness last Night” ( **septimus** , Post 1179). septimus later reiterated “I’ll mention again that I felt protected last Night” (Post 1771). It might be worthwhile for each of them to check their PMs to see what the verbiage actually was. I was told that I felt a warm glow on Night 1. (I relayed this poorly due to fear of violating the don’t-post-PM rule.) ---
**Author:** ![Silver\_Jan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/90ced4/32.png) [@Silver\_Jan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Silver_Jan)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2011, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2920 "2011-08-24T23:14:16Z")
I have no idea how to do spoilers, I can’t even do multiple quotes. Perhaps that is why I look scummy all the time. I would like to do it but…? I think I need lessons and then I could play better. Don’t tell me how to do it on here, I need to Print it so I can follow the destructions, that’s what comes of being a housewife for 20 odd years. :smack: ---
**Author:** ![LightFoot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/8e8cbc/32.png) [@LightFoot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LightFoot)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2011, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2921 "2011-08-24T23:16:33Z")
> [@Silver\_Jan](#): > > I have no idea how to do spoilers, I can’t even do multiple quotes. Perhaps that is why I look scummy all the time. I would like to do it but…? > > I think I need lessons and then I could play better. Don’t tell me how to do it on here, I need to Print it so I can follow the destructions, that’s what comes of being a housewife for 20 odd years. :smack: spoiler tags are just like quote tags or the other ones [spoiler] and [/ spoiler] without the spaces between the [ Multi quotes I cut/past to word so I can preview anyway so I have not wxperimented with that feature [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025.md?page=145) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025.md?page=147)