# Mystery Mafia -- Game Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [August 17, 2011, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025 "2011-08-17T14:03:37Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 154
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2011, 6:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/3062 "2011-08-25T06:09:07Z")
Either these results came from detective-like roles, or they were sent to us as lies from the mafia scumbags themselves. That means the scums would have been sending out 2-4 false messages per night on their own. That’s a lot, considering they also must murder and likely, block detectives, and they had at least one other role which is already dead. I judge it unlikely all 4 other messages besides the town crier message came from scum. That does not make sense. I judge it likely that we do have at least some whispering cops, of varying degrees of accuracy or inaccuracy. ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2011, 6:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/3063 "2011-08-25T06:09:45Z")
> [@sangaman](#): > > Ughhhh what a dumb mistake by me. I wish I could say I was good enough to be aware of the game’s set-up and not mess up like I did by saying there are 9 wolves. I didn’t understand what was going on at first when people were questioning my post. I could have sworn the OP said there were 9 wolves but apparently I was wrong. I am used to 1/4 of the players (37 in this case) being wolves, and just assumed that was incontrovertibly the case in this game which evidently was a mistake. > > I understand it looks terrible and could cut my game short but I still want to try to help win this game for the village. I don’t know what else to say, but I’m not scum and I’ll try to get a wolf lynched today. In that case, you might try placing a vote on someone. You never quite managed to do that yesterDay. (I’ll give you a pass for Day 1 since you subbed in 4 hours before EoD.) ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2011, 6:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/3064 "2011-08-25T06:10:13Z")
This was lost in the shuffle, but can someone assist me in looking over Inner Stickler’s posts to see if he breadcrumbed a detective result somewhere? It will take like an hour or more. ---
**Author:** ![Weedy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/weedy/32/301_2.png) [@Weedy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Weedy)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2011, 6:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/3065 "2011-08-25T06:20:01Z")
It was Dancecat. ---
**Author:** ![TexCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texcat/32/9041_2.png) [@TexCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TexCat)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2011, 6:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/3066 "2011-08-25T06:20:15Z")
Pizza, I reviewed all of Inner’s day one posts here: [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14164642&postcount=1475](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14164642&postcount=1475) but of course, I wasn’t looking for breadcrumbs. I think your theory on the dethy setup may well be correct. I just don’t want us to go down a long road of assumptions based on it being fact. ---
**Author:** ![TexCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texcat/32/9041_2.png) [@TexCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TexCat)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2011, 6:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/3067 "2011-08-25T06:21:53Z")
:smack: Probably it’s Inner’s day two post that we need to look at anyway. It must be getting late. ---
**Author:** ![sangaman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ce73a5/32.png) [@sangaman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sangaman)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2011, 6:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/3068 "2011-08-25T06:23:36Z")
I just read some of the posts from tonight about my slip. I’d like to respond to one in particular: > [@crackedquads](#): > > It’s a really weird post. 9 is oddly specific (that would be almost exactly 25% of the player pool). Someone was posting the quotes of a dead player earlier in the night, and in those quotes, the dead player also mentioned “6-9” wolves, then later mentioned the upper end of 9 wolves. Now sanga could have just sponged that # from the dead player, but the curious part is that the dead player was also a wolf. The reason I thought it was 9 was because I’ve only ever played WW on the 2p2 forum where the standard format for games is to always have wolves be 25% of the player pool, rounded down. 9/11 players is 2 wolves, 13/15 players is 3 wolves, 17/19 is 4 wolves, etc… I’ve only played games that follow this structure, and the closest thing to a mishmash I’ve played also followed this (21 players, 5 wolves, 1 jester, power roles on either side balancing each other). I’ve also never played any games where the # of wolves in the game was not common knowledge. Now that I’ve consciously thought about it, I guess there could be any number of wolves here since this game is on a different board and has a lot of uncommon rules, although I’d still be surprised if the number of starting wolves is far off of 9. This is the structure I am referring to: > **[Two Plus Two Poker Forums - View Single Post - WW Rules, Subs, Guidelines,...](http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showpost.php?p=4847617&postcount=2)** > > Post 4847617 -Poker discussion forum with over 500,000 members and 100 different poker forums. Learn poker strategy & sharpen your poker skills for tournament poker, texas hold 'em, five card draw, omaha hi lo, seven card stud and more plus talk... FWIW I never saw the 6-9 post. I didn’t sub in till late in day 1 and was at my aunt’s beach house in NJ all weekend, so I skimmed over some parts of the thread. I was hoping to be more active starting d3, but I obviously didn’t get off on the right foot. I realized that I’d made that slip late this evening and saw some of the reactions it received, but didn’t post for a few hours because I was too embarrassed. It’s a blatantly bad mistake for me to make and I will just have to learn from it. I’ll be online tomorrow afternoon. ---
**Author:** ![Weedy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/weedy/32/301_2.png) [@Weedy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Weedy)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2011, 6:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/3069 "2011-08-25T06:29:13Z")
I have heard 25%, or the square root of the number of players, which would be 6. Sangaman’s statement is only PIS if there are in fact 9 wolves. That seems like a lot to me. Can anyone with more experience in balancing games comment on this? ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2011, 6:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/3070 "2011-08-25T06:38:21Z")
Nevermind. Just read his posts since N1-his death. > [@Inner\_Stickler](#): > > I know I posted it but I would be very surprised if both DC and IT are scum. It throws way too much attention on just the two of them. No guilty result on DanceCat (obviously) or Idle Thoughts. > [@Inner\_Stickler](#): > > If I were the vig, I’d target PCM tonight unless he gets lynched. If he has a guilty result, it’s on **Precambrianmollusc** , but interestingly the vigilante didn’t target Inner Stickler, unless the scumbag was a backup vigilante role, gaining a murder when the townies lose one. Just doesn’t feel sure to me. > [@Inner\_Stickler](#): > > Not to mention if the wolves have a RB, they’re probably unsure about it but if they have a killing power in addition to the NK, they may have an idea of who has it so there’s a strong chance you could eat it tonight as well as a potential seer. I think it was…less then effective to put forth your name as a probable killer. > > (My preference as a vig is to go after low volume posters. Like \*\*PCM \*\*would be an awesome target right now. Frees up the people who want to vote him for crappy play Yesterday and either removes scum or someone not really participating. The other theory I like but not quite as much is to target the runner up in lynch wagons if the lynched was town.) Bolding mine. Mentions \*\*PCM \*\*several times. \*Possibly \*indicating guilty result. > [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > I’ve played a Vig, and I tried using the power at the behest of the Town. It worked out HORRIBLY. The reason being that scum had as much say in that as they did in the lynch votes and I didn’t hit a single scum. > > What makes a Vig powerful is the lack of accountability. We all know they’re pro-town, so it’s not like they’re going to deliberately attack someone who they don’t find scummy. So, by all means, consider some suggestions, but I really think that if you think you’re a Vig, or to whoever else may be, you need to make up the decision for yourself. > > On top of that, I think another good strategy is to use it to follow up on unsubstantiable hunches. For instance, I was once playing a game as scum where I was quite loud and the main proponent pushing for most of the lynches and dominating the discussion, and I’m fairly certain that many people felt I was scummy, but every one of my lynch cases was solid so no one could build a case against me that I couldn’t refute. Hell, I was even manipulating the Vigilante target. But eventually, either at LyLo or right before, I knew I was in his sights and I was finally Vigged. The point of that is that, I was unlynchable especially since we were so close to LyLo, so it was the best move on his part and going for the second place target or a quiet player would have guaranteed a town loss. > > In short, if you think you’re a Vig, consider the different strategies and decide what you think is best for the town. Sometimes getting someone who is noisy and dominating discussion is a better target than a lurker. Sometimes it makes sense to crack into a cluster and see how the roles break down to try to get alignment information about others involved. Sometimes someone is scummy as hell but, for whatever reason, people just aren’t voting for them. Most importantly though, since it’s not unlikely that the scum have a role block or a doctor type, don’t try to be too predictable. Blaster Master, known scum, responds to Inner Stickler’s comments about the vig. Coincidental maybe, but… Inner wasn’t voting for PCM. May not have wanted to attract attention, but attract someone’s attention he certainly did. Interesting that the scumbag is advocating so firmly against vigilantism. Maybe Inner was onto something. > [@Inner\_Stickler](#): > > I’m torn on Texcat. There is a report that she’s town but it smells funky. Dancecat and Blaster Master seem a bit out of left field. They both have drawn fire in the past and these claims show up the day after one got quite a few votes and on the day the other picked some up. The report on Silver Jan showed up earliest and first which makes me want to trust it as it’s not a response to anything, it came unbidden. On the other hand, it could have been a plant to stir the pot. However, Gnarly’s flip would give us further insight into Silver Jan’s alignment. We can sit here and talk until the thread is 13 pages long and it won’t matter. Eventually we have to lynch someone and a good chunk of people are going to think it’s the wrong lynch. You, yourself, who can’t seem to hold onto an opinion for more than 2 posts will immediately shift your case if any one person seems to be the general consensus, especially if you were the firebrand that started that consensus in the first place. The Day is over in less than 24 hours. We need answers and I see Gnarlycharlie as a good place to get them. So, gnarly, jan, texcat, blaster master, dancecat. Nothing solid here showing that Inner thinks any of these are definitely guilty. > [@Inner\_Stickler](#): > > If you’re scum she’s either bussing or getting accurate results. If you’re town she’s either lying or getting inaccurate results. Right now she’s doing one in four things. Your death will bring it to 1 of two. Inner also wants gnarlycharlie dead, but seemed to be hinting to the vigilante to hit PCM. Indicating he has a result on PCM, but only suspicions on gnarly. It’s possible that Inner Stickler was shot by a backup vigilante role which was either town or scum-aligned, with the backup vig ROLE, but, if he had a guilty result it was on PCM and not anyone else that I can tell. More likely he only got an innocent result. But, if he got a guilty result, it was on Precambrianmollusc. \*\*Note: I would back up this suspicion with a vote, but, I am not entirely sure Inner got a guilty result on Precambrianmollusc or just suspicion. As such, I’m not sure that’s enough to warrant a vote YET. \*\*@ Weedy- what do you mean it was DanceCat? Idle thoughts had the Dancecat result. ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2011, 6:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/3071 "2011-08-25T06:40:29Z")
> [@Weedy](#): > > I have heard 25%, or the square root of the number of players, which would be 6. > > Sangaman’s statement is only PIS if there are in fact 9 wolves. That seems like a lot to me. Can anyone with more experience in balancing games comment on this? 9 wolves only makes sense if we have multiple sane detectives and multiple vigilantes. However, we have 1 dead sane detective already and 2 known townie vigilantes (that I know of, because I’m one of them if I’m the poisoner and I saw a dead one already) It’s possible. However, I still think revealing 9 was not a scum move, but a guess. I say 4 sometimes as a guess, because that’s the exact amount I’m guessing. Doesn’t feel like PIS yet. ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2011, 6:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/3072 "2011-08-25T06:52:17Z")
> [@Idle\_Thoughts](#): > > **Scathach** and **Brewha** , though, I’m willing to bet there’s a scum among them. > And since\*\* BREWHA\*\* doesn’t seem to have very long to live now that he’s been poisoned: > **Vote Brewha.** > > Other players I’m still suspicious of (either a little or a lot): **Scuba Ben, PCM** I like this post a lot. Although some pointed out that Brewha being poisoned means it’s possibly a wasted vote, I think a townie would just vote based on who they think is scum, even if there’s a tactical reason not to. I am willing to vote for the following other people today: **Astral Rejection: Current vote** Alternates: 1. \*\*Brewha \*\*(No review needed, no reversal is likely) 2. \*\*Scathach \*\*(reviewing Scathach now to see if I want to reverse that opinion) 3. **Precambrianmollusc** 4. **Scuba\_Ben** ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2011, 7:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/3073 "2011-08-25T07:17:32Z")
Scathach [spoiler] > [@Scathach](#): > > Yeah, it’s actually a mild pity someone called him out on it, because that means he can now work to disguise a scum tell. Tossing some suspicion onto townie peeker. > [@Scathach](#): > > Sorry, I meant it’s a pity he was called out on it because now he’s aware of it - so he can work to disguise it. I’m not really convinced he’s scum because he didn’t really have enough rope to hang himself (if that makes sense?). > > He is my best vote candidate so far - so if I don’t find anything else more scummy by tomorrow that’s where my vote will be. FOS peeker I guess 🙂 No vote on peeker. He’s the lead candidate, too. > [@Scathach](#): > > I hate this whole reasoning. First, you throw in the whole “of course, I know I’m a townie” - then you say that it’s making you think that Krayz might be the seer? Despite admittedly realising it’s more likely he’s just scum and has perfect information? Or that he’s just doing this whole “fakepeek” thing. It casts an awful lot of aspersions while appearing to defend him. > > **Vote Dancecat** > > Explain this to me again? Where is there anything to suggest that Dancecat and Krayz are masons? Seems like a massive assumption, but I might be missing something obvious here. Votes for townie Dancecat. > [@Scathach](#): > > What’s all this about then? Who is the seer who’s so incredibly in danger of being lynched? Fishing, maybe? > [@Scathach](#): > > Tag fail ☹ > > \*\*Vote Scuba\_Ben > \*\* If Scathach is scum, what does that say about Scuba? > [@Scathach](#): > > Hmm - ok, I’m going to > > **unvote Scuba\_ben** > > and > **vote gnarlycharlie** > > The mason claim has thrown me a bit, but I think if gnarlycharlie turns up wolf then Texcat looks scummy and SilverJan looks town. Whereas if we lynch SilverJan and she turns up wolf, then we can’t assume anything because she was probably lying. Plus, I’ve been finding her kind of towny, despite the fluff posting. > > I still find the case on Scuba\_ben convincing - but with all the roleclaiming going on, I think more information will result from a lynch of either SilverJan, gnarlycharlie or Texcat. If Scathach is scum, what does that say about Gnarlycharlie? > [@Scathach](#): > > \*\*unvote gnarlycharlie > \*\* > Only one of those scenario’s makes gnarlycharlie a wolf. And that scenario involves the wolves playing a really risky game. Occcam’s razor and all. Does unvote, maybe because I was right. > [@Scathach](#): > > Hopefully we’ll have a slew of new results which may at least help us find a pattern to some of the night actions. > > \*\* vote Scuba\_ben > \*\* Consistent against Scuba. > [@Scathach](#): > > Wait, wait, wait - I thought TexCat had to target you to find out who you were? And that she was suspicious of you and voted you, and then targeted you Night One? > > Did I misread? Not sure what to make of this but my gut says its interesting. Interesting how, I dunno. > [@Scathach](#): > > I really don’t like lynching any of the people who claimed they got messages. I’d prefer to to wait til the next day and see if the same people claim to get messages or a different set of people > > With that in mind > **Unvote Scuba\_ben** Interesting. > [@Scathach](#): > > Hmm, of the lynch leaders, that only leaves Blaster Master to vote for. But I liked BlasterMaster’s case against Scuba\_Ben and voting for someone I don’t find scummy is just plain weird. A bit incriminating. > [@Scathach](#): > > I like the Blaster lynch better than I like lynching any of the message receivers / mason’s for the moment. > > But I prefer the case against Inner. > > \*\*[color=blue]vote Inner Stickler[\color] > \*\* > > Also still suspicious of Scuba\_Ben. Still interesting… > [@Scathach](#): > > [non-game-related] I’m a she, fyi [/non-game-related] > > Eesh, I was wrong wrong wrong ☹ But I really didn’t find BlasterMaster scummy. I liked the case (s?)he made about Scuba\_Ben and I didn’t want to vote for someone I found townie. The bandwagon on BlaM was going pretty much unchallenged which I thought proved even more that he wasn’t a wolf. The only other person who had even a vote or two was Inner so I thought that was the best place to put a vote to save someone I thought was town. > > So yeah, I tried to save a wolf and lynch a town cop:smack: My brilliance has overwhelmed me today. > > Oh, and since BlaM was the one leading the case against Scuba\_Ben, that means my main suspect is probably town too. Really, everyone should just look at who I find scummy and treat them as confirmed town from now on. :o Hmmm. I sort of agree with this post, the part about Scuba\_Ben. Maybe they were bussing for town cred? They have reserves… > [@Scathach](#): > > Because if’s a curing poison role (special ed said healthy, not protected) - then I think that makes AskThePizzaGuy look odd. Why would a poisoner be town if there’s a town role to cure poison? Meh. Tossing suspicion onto me here is somewhat justified. It’s hard to call this scummy even though that’s my first instinct.[/spoiler] The vote record is pretty bad. But bad as in townie bad or bad as in scumbag trying to save a teammate bad? I dunno. The pressure against Scuba is fairly consistent. Can’t tell if that’s a scumbag bussing another scum persistently if gently, or a townie trying to kill her top suspect. Better scum play might have been to bus Blaster Master or not oppose the lynch, true. This could be townie accidentally looking very scummy. I can’t read this either way. Also just got a whole lot less sure about Scuba\_Ben. I dunno where I stand on these two right now. Depends on who they’re up against for the lynch. There’s not nothing on Scathach but it’s just a bit too tidy for my taste. Of these: **Brewha** … \*\*Precambrianmollusc … \*\* **Scathach** **Scuba\_Ben** There are probably better names. We’ll see. ---
**Author:** ![TexCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texcat/32/9041_2.png) [@TexCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TexCat)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2011, 7:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/3074 "2011-08-25T07:20:40Z")
The problem with the case on ScubaBen is that Blaster was the biggest pusher of that case. Drain Bead made a case on Scathach earlier today that looked pretty good. It’s certainly not clear that Inner knew he was a cop yet, especially if his result went to someone else. He might have targeted SilverJan. He seemed intent on lynching into the claim circle, but did not want to lynch her. He said a couple of times that he wanted to prove the result on her by lynching into the circle. Anyway, he might not have wanted to leave breadcrumbs until he was more sure that he was a cop. ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2011, 7:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/3075 "2011-08-25T07:23:57Z")
> [@TexCat](#): > > The problem with the case on ScubaBen is that Blaster was the biggest pusher of that case. What were the circumstances? (Rhetorical question, but I honestly don’t recall) 1. Was this pushed by Blaster Master while neither Scuba nor Blaster was under threat of death? 2. When did Blaster Master push hardest on this case? 3. Was there a realistic chance Scuba died from his case and vote? If so, then it’s either very convincing bussing or it’s Scuba being innocent. > [@](#): > > Drain Bead made a case on Scathach earlier today that looked pretty good. I’ll look it over, because I’m not sure of anything except her votes are bad. > [@](#): > > It’s certainly not clear that Inner knew he was a cop yet, especially if his result went to someone else. He might have targeted SilverJan. He seemed intent on lynching into the claim circle, but did not want to lynch her. He said a couple of times that he wanted to prove the result on her by lynching into the circle. Anyway, he might not have wanted to leave breadcrumbs until he was more sure that he was a cop. This is an excellent point, thank you. ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2011, 7:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/3076 "2011-08-25T07:28:13Z")
> [@Drain\_Bead](#): > > **Vote Scathach** > > I don’t like the following posts, [2268](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14172741&postcount=2268) and [2449](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14173664&postcount=2449). In 2268, he explicitly says that he doesn’t find **Blaster Master** scummy, but of the leading lynch targets he’s the only one who didn’t get a message, and he doesn’t want to lynch one of those. Then in 2449, he says he likes the **Blaster** lynch better than lynching the masons/receivers, but votes **Inner** because he prefers the case against **Inner**. > > This reads to me like someone who is trying to avoid lynching a teammate. In the first post, he realizes that he’s boxed himself into it, and spends that post and the next post trying to wriggle his way out, doing so without saying much in the way of anything one way or the other. If I had to guess which of the late voters were Scum, it would be him. Is Scathach M or F? Hmm… I saw all of this as well. I not entirely sure that makes Scath mafia though. But I agree, it’s a better than zero case. I can’t really object. ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2011, 7:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/3077 "2011-08-25T07:47:34Z")
> [@Askthepizzaguy](#): > > This explains why lightfoot didn’t die; my n0 action had zero effect. Need to correct something from way earlier: This should have read \*\*lilflower \*\*obviously. ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2011, 8:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/3078 "2011-08-25T08:19:32Z")
Astral Rejection [SPOILER] > [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > It wasn’t my intent to get my start in this game so late, but I will say it’s given me a pretty unique place to start analyzing folks. For me, my Day 1 is now, and reading the entire thread from the beginning while knowing the roles of Krayz, Mahaloth, Guiri, and Silman has been helpful. > > I’m going to spoiler my thoughts on two potential wolves to help make this post a little more manageable. > > SNIP > > Ultimately, I find Giraffe far more scummy than Episkey. > > **Vote Giraffe.** > > That does it for now. I want to see this day play out a little more before I post some of my lesser cases. If Astral is scum, I doubt Giraffe is. Vice-versa. > [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > I’m leaning scum on Episkey myself, but that’s not a fair point. He didn’t wait until 14 minutes before the end of day to talk about Krayz; instead, he defends Krayz in 613, 638, and 689, at least. Those are the three big ones I noted, and there could be more. > > Regardless of anything else going on with him, he’s been very consistent on Krayz’s innocence. I disagree, I think Episkey is townie, and I think the investigation results show that, even if they read “wolf”. I know, it’s crazy. But it just may be a lunatic… > [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > None taken. 😃 > > I understand that you think I’m making a mountain out of a molehill here, but this isn’t based on just two underlined words. You say you find those people “a lot” - your words - more suspicious. And then you never follow up on that suspicion in any way that I can see. Do you honestly believe that’s not somewhat suspicious? > > If it helps you understand my thought process, let me explain how I caught up: as I read, I took copious notes on everything I saw in the thread. Every slight town or scum tell, every interesting post, every thing I thought might be useful. It’s seriously gargantuan. If you took notes on your computer I’d love to see. > [@](#): > > Ultimately, I didn’t find Dancecat that suspicious, even before getting to the part where Idle cleared her. So naturally, you voting for her raised an eye brow or two. I thought it was definitely worth pointing out that you voiced some suspicion over a group of people, did not follow up on that suspicion, and then voted for someone I was leaning town on for nebulous reasons. You might disagree, but ultimately your vote relies on the trustworthiness of the person who reported her usual behavior and your ability to determine whether she’s acting different because she’s playing with a group of entirely new people on a new board, or if she’s playing different because she’s scum. Correct stance on DanceCat > [@](#): > > I may be wrong about you and peeker, as well. I really don’t have a lot of experience with peeker; I think I’ve played maybe two games with him. So far, I’m not buying him as scum either. So now I’ve got two people I’m leaning town, both of whom were voted for by you. Backing off of peeker. > [@](#): > > As a final note, I could be totally wrong about the Idle cuddling, too. More backing off. > [@](#): > > However, I stand by my decision to include that in my case. Yes, you ignoring his cheerleading while calling out someone else’s could be totally innocent. I’m sure I missed plenty of details and facts while reading this 1400 post monster. However, given that I had already seen you be agreeable with Idle, I thought it was worth mentioning. As with anything in this game, it could be a scum tell… or it could be nothing. I understand your frustration. Some of my case perhaps is a little unfair if you’re an honest townie. However, I can’t know that at this point. Really doesn’t look like acting. I highly doubt Astral and Giraffe are both scum together. 5 stars if I’m wrong. > [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > I don’t understand what the kerfluffle is here. > > We have four town claims, and one wolf claim. We have a few mason claims, one of which conflicts with the wolf claim. Each of the people making claims says that they got their result from someone else. > > **Vote gnarlycharlie**. > > Town manages to talk themselves out of lynches all the time. People are worried about hitting a potential mason, or following the lead of a paranoid cop, and I believe those worries are baseless. Gnarly presents the best current opportunity. Here’s why: > > \*\*1) Silver Jan says gnarly is a wolf. \*\* We have three options: Silver is correct, Silver is wrong, or Silver is lying. The simplest current explanation is that Silver is telling the truth. Pizza is worried about paranoid cops, and advises us to look elsewhere. If we do that, we’ll still be wondering about gnarly, and we’ll still eventually have to deal with the situation. I don’t see any value in ignoring a claim like this. > > **2) Paranoid docs aren’t worth worrying about.** If our various claims are to be believed, all of these results were sent by someone else. We currently have no way of tracking who got which result from whom. If tomorrow I get a result from someone that says Idle Thoughts is Scummy McScumpants, did I get it from the paranoid cop? The sane cop? Some other flavor of cop? Do I just ignore it, and stick with my own read on him? It kinda sounds like that’s what you’re advocating. We currently have no direct evidence of a paranoid (or otherwise) cop. Gnarly’s lynch will either give us that evidence, or kill a wolf. > > **3) Scanning gnarly with more cops is worthless.** Presumably, our own cops either don’t know their roles yet, or don’t know what kind of flavor they are. Assuming our cops decided to speak up, we’d (again) get a mix of innocent and guilty results. And then we’d have to lynch him anyway, which will have wasted a ton of cop reads, since we STILL wouldn’t know the difference between paranoid or insane, or honest or naive. > > **4) A mason is worth less than a seer.** I’d rather kill a claimed mason than a claimed seer. Actually, I’d rather not lynch either, but in this case their claims are directly opposed with each other. If we ignore gnarly, and Silver is being honest, she’s an obvious target for scum to kill. Does the doc protect her? Maybe not, since he isn’t sure if she’s innocent or not. With gnarly dead, we’re a step closer to knowing her alignment, and other roles (if they know enough about themselves) can act accordingly. Doing it the other way is just silly. > > **5) TexCat might be wrong.** And I don’t even mean she might be lying. I didn’t quite understand what she was saying about PMs, and I can’t find it now, but if I understand her correctly, she got her information about gnarly’s innocence in a PM from… gnarly. Hardly an unbiased source. If I’m misremembering, and TexCat claimed to get her info from Gadarene, disregard this part. I will add that a wolf hidden amongst the masons does not sound unreasonable to me in a game this size. We’d be a step closer towards clearing our other mason claimants if Gnarly ends up dead (unless they’re wolves too. FPS, maybe?) > > Long story short, we need to know gnarly’s team. This whole post is a VERY logical-sounding and well constructed argument as to why we should lynch gnarlycharlie out of the investigatees. However, a result of “villager” on BlasterMaster showed us we can’t always trust this information, and any analysis which includes different-sanity cops means the results on gnarly are LIKELY to be insane or paranoid, not sane. Likely. The odds are in our favor greatly in both cases, paranoid or insane, and the odds are not in our favor at all on the sane part, because that means the other innocent results were all naive (bastard if more than one naive) or sane (lots of sane cops) or insane (lots of guilty results). I don’t like this post, as such. It’s very intelligent and Occam’s Razor-y reasons to lynch gnarlycharlie, who I suspect is townie, over folks like Blaster master, who was scum. Occam’s Razor points us the wrong way again. > [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > Fair enough. But remember, _mason and wolf are not contradictory._ There’s nothing stopping gnarly from being a scum mason. TexCat could be wrong or lying. But this is sort of a counter-Occam argument. Scum masons are not what you assume first. Is it any wonder why I toss out Occam in many cases? It’s not reliable, and it’s not even reliably adhered to by \*proponents of such \*in mafia games. > [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > I am wholly opposed to the Blaster Master lynch. > > For one, it tells us nothing about the claims situation. I want to settle some part of that. If gnarly is revealed as scum, it was a success. If gnarly is mason, we’ve temporarily cleared some other folks, and it’s a success. Scum are forced to choose between lynching confirmed town or shoot into the dark, and I like making their choice harder. > > Also, I’m not enamored with many of the Blaster Master voters’ reasons. Drain Bead has a “ping,” and I think Episkey is scum so I don’t trust his read at all. Idle at least has a reasonable suspicion, but I disagree with his conclusion. Explain the scum though process to me. Yes, I know, “don’t get trapped in 'scum wouldn’t do that,” but I’ve considered the event and I don’t believe it indicates Blaster is scum. > > Lastly, I’m not digging how much late-day steam this wagon has gathered. It doesn’t strike me as right at all. > > I’m sticking with gnarly. Defense of Blaster Master. > [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > Yes. You beat me to it, but I think this is a terrible wagon. Welp. > [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > you want to kill me because you think I’m scum, or just because I’m wrong? > > Eh, I’ve been called worse. > > You’re ignoring that this “claimed mason” is also a claimed wolf. I think ignoring town’s first wolf claim is a silly choice. There’s no major case against Astral being scum here, so Astral knows he can defend against any accusations if they are accusations. If he’s scum, he’s in a prime position to argue for gnarlycharlie over BlasterMaster. _ **It’s the duel of the rhyming names, ZOMG!** _ > [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > Peeks, I think I must have missed something. How do we know Giraffe is scum? Fair question. > [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > Explain to me how voting for Silver Jan was an easy lynch, 'cuz I don’t get it. I’m on my phone at work, so there’s no chance of me looking this up, but wasn’t Blaster one of (if not THE) first to vote for Jan? > > What do you expect us to learn tomorrow that confirms him? > You and I severely disagree on the severity of lynching a mason. Especially when someone else has claimed he’s a wolf. Doubt Astral is mafia with NAF. > [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > I’ll cross that bridge when I come to it. I’m worried about today. I do not believe a wolf mason disguised as town out of the question. Presumably, he would appear town to his mason buddies but scum to a true investigator. If that’s the case, then all of the people were telling the truth. Well, except for gnarly. I’ll know more after he flips. > > The alternative is doing nothing about the tangled web of claims, and I find the idea of not knowing abhorrent. My choices are lynching possible town, seer, mason, or mason+wolf. I’m choosing the latter. More _sound reasoning_ which lynches gnarlycharlie over scum Blaster Master. Just feeling like Astral is Blaster’s main lawyer here. > [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > I just want to throw this out there: > > That was a poetically appropriate role for Peeker. > > On a more serious note, I think there’s a solid chance of scum being found in the late Blaster wagon. Being the person to push Blaster over the edge is a serious chunk of town cred, and I can see that being tempting for scum. I’m at work, so I’ll have to review those people later. Hmmmm. I’m not sure I trust your analysis of who might be scum on the Blaster wagon. > [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > Well, okay, but won’t the poison take care of him for you? We have no evidence that the poison is nonfatal. > > On the other hand, perhaps the pause between poisoning and death would indicate we have a doctor who can cure it? If Brewha flips scum, this makes Astral look worse. > [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > I will caution you, town makes that kind of “slip” all the time. Idle Thoughts, whom I’m starting to suspect more and more, has made in my opinion a classic scum response to a “slip.” > > Things currently look bad for Sangaman. If we lynch him and he flips town, I’d take a gander in Idle’s direction. > > I’m waiting for what you have to reveal, Pizza! Hmm. Either Astral and I are town and agree that Sangaman is a bad lynch, right or wrong, or Astral is scum trying to distance himself from what happens to Sangaman by making sure he’s not responsible for it. > [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > Are you claiming wolf, then? Because I presented a series of hypotheticals that are helpful to _wolves._ I hate this post. Hollow un-serious rhetoric. > [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > @ Pizza: It also gets townies in trouble. Consider this hypothetical: You list player X as your top suspect. Player X is town. You lead a healthy mix of town and mafia players to vote for him. He dies. Oops. Player Y votes for you as a result. Player Y is also town. A healthy mix of town and mafia players vote for you. You die. > > Are we any closer to finding scum? Did they have to do anything to drive two mislynches? > > Meanwhile, they’ve been handed a blueprint for every townie’s suspicions, and they’re free to game town by eliminating people they deem most tactically wise. Right now, killing townie Z is a crapshoot for them - they don’t know Z’s power, Z doesn’t know Z’s power, and they don’t know what cases Z might try to make in the future. For all they know, player Q (really shoulda planned this alphabet naming thing out better) would have been a better lynch, because the next day he leads a case on scum R. > > Do you see what I’m getting at? Negativity, fear, doom and gloom. > [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > Forgot to add: > > This is an awful lot of information you want to hand over to the scums just so a poisoner who isn’t a confirmed townie power can make a group-consensus shot. > > Agree to disagree, I guess. More warning. > [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > I’m definitely willing to lynch Episkey. Sign me up. > > **Vote Episkey.** > > For my earlier case on him plus a claim of wolf by Askthepizzaguy. It’s possible the whisper could be wrong, so I’m sorry if you flip townie. As I said yesterday regarding gnarly, I’d rather find out the old-fashioned way than worry about it day after day. Blech. > [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > I think this is a worse vote. Do you think I’m scum, or is this a stunt? Similar response, in an earlier quote. Are you inviting me to make a case on you? > [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > Incidentally, how do you ever intend on solving the claims issue without ever acting on one of them? This doesn’t sound like realistic objections. No one could have assumed my position was to let them live all game long. That’s preposterous. Where does this sort of thinking come from if not from a lying part of the brain? > [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > A lynch is currently the only way to earn absolute information that benefits the entire town, and in a game like this we absolutely need hard information. I want to get to the bottom of these claims, and I don’t see any value in delaying. We got some hard information when Blaster Master died. Such as: Don’t trust the investigators at face value. Where is the skepticism? I see skepticism for everything but the thing we should be MOST skeptical about, the error-prone or outright-lie detectives.[/SPOILER] Everything he’s doing rubs me the wrong way and I disagree with him on all his suspects and suggested courses of action. My vote \*\*stays \*\*unless no one follows or I can get \*\*Brewha \*\*lynched. ---
**Author:** ![Scathach](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aeb1de/32.png) [@Scathach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scathach)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2011, 9:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/3079 "2011-08-25T09:06:17Z")
> [@Askthepizzaguy](#): > > Is Scathach M or F? I’m a she. To try and explain my reasoning for the BlaM/Inner vote craziness: I targeted DanceCat on night 1 - so when Idle said that they got a PM saying DanceCat was town, I was suspicious that I might be one oracle in the 5-way ring that AskThePizzaGuy was proposing (i.e. each seer’s results goes to a different person). Because I wasn’t sure if a result would go to the same person every night, I really REALLY didn’t want to lynch someone who had gotten a role PM. At least not that day anyway. BUT - my main suspicion all along was Scuba\_Ben, and it was BlaM who had pointed out what I thought was a suspect vote (the Krayz one), so I really didn’t think BlaM was scum. Given that, my best option seemed to be Inner because that was the only other wagon at the time. Now granted, I was completely wrong on every point, but there’s the reasoning. ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2011, 9:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/3080 "2011-08-25T09:07:42Z")
> [@Scathach](#): > > I’m a she. > > To try and explain my reasoning for the BlaM/Inner vote craziness: > > I targeted DanceCat on night 1 - so when Idle said that they got a PM saying DanceCat was town, I was suspicious that I might be one oracle in the 5-way ring that AskThePizzaGuy was proposing (i.e. each seer’s results goes to a different person). Because I wasn’t sure if a result would go to the same person every night, I really REALLY didn’t want to lynch someone who had gotten a role PM. At least not that day anyway. \*\*That \*\*is plausible. Very well done if scum. I trust you a little bit more now. There’s no one here talking to me. Care to stay and chat for a spell? ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2011, 9:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/3081 "2011-08-25T09:25:07Z")
> [@bufftabby](#): > > If someone targeted you Night 1 and me Night 2, then they would appear to be the giver of the glowing warmness. Perhaps I was foolish to guess that the glow represented Protection. I might have an extra clue about the glow mystery, especially if someone targeted me on Night 0. There are some dead Townies, for which knowledge of whom they targeted earlier might be quite useful right now. Some of this info would be more useful to Scum, of course, but wide-scale revealing might also give Scum ways to trap themselves. > [@TexCat](#): > > Blaster came out of the gate yesterday with a ready to go case on ScubaBen. I think he was the alternative wagon to Blaster early in the day. I want to look at people who voted ScubaBen and then switched to Inner. These people appear to be Scathach, lilflower, gnarlycharlie Speaking of gnarly, if he’s the Wolf among Masons, how many other Masons are there and who are they? If I were a Mason, would I get a “you are a Mason” message when I target myself? **Vote: Precambrianmollusc** Inner Stickler did send a strong bread-crumb signal. (OTOH, why didn’t he just blurt out his results when he looked almost headed for a Lynch?) PCM presents pingingly just as Blam did: several posts to avoid Lurkishness but little real scum-hunting. I can’t say I’m confident in this vote but it’s good enough for [del]a Day 1 vote[/del] an old man getting increasingly confused. :smack: [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025.md?page=153) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025.md?page=155)