# Mystery Mafia -- Game Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [August 17, 2011, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025 "2011-08-17T14:03:37Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 61
**Author:** ![peekercpa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8baadc/32.png) [@peekercpa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/peekercpa)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2011, 3:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1202 "2011-08-20T03:57:26Z")
figured i would just cut that mother fucker off at the knees. dontchaknow. ---
**Author:** ![crackedquads](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/b38774/32.png) [@crackedquads](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crackedquads)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2011, 4:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1203 "2011-08-20T04:02:33Z")
> [@Idle\_Thoughts](#): > > I don’t get it. > > I still say it’s flawed. > > What’s someone supposed to do if they’re the seer and they actually hit paydirt? > > How about this: > > **crackedquads** is a wolf. > > Now if he happens to turn up as a wolf, I guess I’m the seer then, right? If you’re in danger of being mislynched, you MUST come clean about this before you die. The entire village is going to merrily mislynch me if you die as a seer and leave this fake breadcrumb behind. The odds you’re doing this as the actual seer is very small, but you don’t seem to really grasp the idea of fakepeeking so you may have left a fake peek as the real seer (if you’re the real seer, you’re supposed to leave behind your REAL peek). If you’re the real seer, absolutely do not admit to fakepeeking me, you’ll just out yourself that way. You probably shouldn’t even do it if you aren’t the seer. ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2011, 4:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1204 "2011-08-20T04:08:56Z")
> [@NAF1138](#): > > Guiri is well known as a very good player. My guess would be that the suggestion for his kill came from one of us and not an other boarder. Frankly, I think this whole line of reasoning is WIFOM. With my estimate of 6-9 scum Yesterday, there’s a pretty darn good probability that there’s both Dopers and other-boarders on the scum team. Figuring out who made the suggestion doesn’t really help us at all. Figure we can even say with certainty that it was a Doper who made the suggestion, that doesn’t help us at all because it’s fully expected, well above chance, that there’s a Doper on the scum team, so it gives us no more information than simply guessing at random. So, IMO, trying to figure out whether it was an other-boarder or doper is fruitless. What we can glean, though, is that both dopers and other-boarders as scum had potential reasons to want him dead so, assuming that the scum kill wasn’t blocked, which was unlikely, then **Guiri** was probably more likely to be their team kill than **Silnam**. And from that, we can glean that **Silnam** ’s death is likely not a scum team kill, and thus could be another vig, or an sk, or a hitman. I’m not sure how useful that info is, but it is what it is. ---
**Author:** ![crackedquads](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/b38774/32.png) [@crackedquads](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crackedquads)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2011, 4:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1205 "2011-08-20T04:11:00Z")
This is Silman’s post’s from yesterday (there’s one where he edits a link and asks the mod if that’s okay, I left that one out because it has no relevance.) > [@Silman](#): > > okay, so I haven’t really read the thread, and won’t until I wake up in the morning because I just got home from work and I’m sleepy > in order to give you guys some good contribution to remember me by, I read krazy’s posts and since I’m the proud owner of his soul (and took lessons from thedean1, a notable pogger) I can happily say he is a villager this game. > > also Suburban Plankton is a villager, whoever that is, but for a much more secret reason I’ll get into later (maybe, if you’re lucky. I wouldn’t worry about this till later) > > When I wake up I’ll find you a wolf if it’s still day1 and I’m still alive, I don’t really got much atm. > > p.s. I’m awesome at soul reading, but really busy IRL atm, when I get some free time I’ll crush this game for y’all > > p.p.s. > [http://www.mostwantedcelebrities.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/Emma-Watson.jpg](http://www.mostwantedcelebrities.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/Emma-Watson.jpg) > [@Silman](#): > > I just saw this post and it made me smile > cool kids hardclear people for little to no reason > day1, it’s a good starting point, obviously you can change things later on when you have more info, but saying “he looks clear so he’s clear until he does something to change my mind” is a good way of developing reads. > [@Silman](#): > > okay the first thing that stuck out is wow, you guys have a completely different culture to us. The general sort of how you read people is mostly the same, but the way you phrase it, and the mannerisms are completely different. > we have a bunch of catch phrases to cover most of what you’ve been explaining in your posts. > ie “when I’m sheriff (seer) I usually wait for 2 investigations, more is too risky” > we have a “2 live peeks = hardclaim” rule of thumb for 9 player games, and generally how we do things is seers will out their peeks, but all the villagers (and the scum/wolves too, to look like villagers" will put out fake peeks that look like they were made by a seer, to give cover to the seer. > > You also mentioned that someone who you find suspicious is more likely than not villager, and the people pushing are wolves/scum. > IMO you should be finding different things suspicious 😛 > A good rule of thumb is > “Villagers vote for weird, or things they don’t like. > Wolves try and look like what villagers don’t lynch.” > so the more likely wolves/scum are those who are trying to blend in, not really creating new ideas, but echoing those already present. > > In order to really soul-read you, would you be able to link me to a game you played where you were a wolf/scum, and a game where you were a villager/townie so I can see if I can find a difference in your posting style between them (we call this “tone”) The underlining is mine. He clears krayz (a now confirmed villager) and clears Suburban Plankton “for a secret reason.” Wolves could have very well thought that Silman was the seer. Silman is very likely to have been the nightkill. ---
**Author:** ![crackedquads](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/b38774/32.png) [@crackedquads](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crackedquads)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2011, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1206 "2011-08-20T04:12:02Z")
And for the above reasons, **Suburban Plankton** is my clearest villager for the time being. ---
**Author:** ![crackedquads](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/b38774/32.png) [@crackedquads](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crackedquads)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2011, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1207 "2011-08-20T04:18:32Z")
> [@crackedquads](#): > > If you’re in danger of being mislynched, you MUST come clean about this before you die. The entire village is going to merrily mislynch me if you die as a seer and leave this fake breadcrumb behind. The odds you’re doing this as the actual seer is very small, but you don’t seem to really grasp the idea of fakepeeking so you may have left a fake peek as the real seer (if you’re the real seer, you’re supposed to leave behind your REAL peek). > > If you’re the real seer, absolutely do not admit to fakepeeking me, you’ll just out yourself that way. You probably shouldn’t even do it if you aren’t the seer. Nevermind, there’s no way idle can be the seer. He targeted someone else last night and got peek results about a 3rd player outside of me. Shouldn’t be bad to explain this to the village because the wolves already know my role anyways so they know he can’t be the seer. ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2011, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1208 "2011-08-20T04:22:04Z")
> [@crackedquads](#): > > And for the above reasons, **Suburban Plankton** is my clearest villager for the time being. Interesting quote from **Silman** you have there. But if you’re correct, then that means that there’s good scum motivation for killing both non-scum targets last Night. I think that raises the probability that scum have a Hitman and, if they do, they likely know who he is as well. Ugh… ---
**Author:** ![crackedquads](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/b38774/32.png) [@crackedquads](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crackedquads)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2011, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1209 "2011-08-20T04:22:23Z")
> [@TexCat](#): > > **Idle** , is it possible that a scummy **DanceCat** is a message sender and sent you a message that she was town? Since the journalist, Silman, had the ability to overhear messages sent at night, I assume someone has the abilitly to send messages at night. This is a good catch but I don’t suspect that there would be a wolf role that allows him/her to send messages freely to other players. The wolf doesn’t even know his own role so why would he know he can send messages? The more likely scenario is that there is masons in this game, and that the journalist (silman) could see their messages if he targeted one of the masons. ---
**Author:** ![crackedquads](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/b38774/32.png) [@crackedquads](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crackedquads)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2011, 4:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1210 "2011-08-20T04:28:30Z")
> [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > Interesting quote from **Silman** you have there. But if you’re correct, then that means that there’s good scum motivation for killing both non-scum targets last Night. I think that raises the probability that scum have a Hitman and, if they do, they likely know who he is as well. Ugh… Well given that the consensus if that guiri was a good player, anyone (townie or scum) could have targeted guiri last night. Most powers are going to be pro-townie (doctor, cop, tracker, etc) when targeting a random player (unknown player is ~60-70% to be a villager). I don’t think we can assume guiri was purposely killed by the scum, rather it is possible that a townie targeting guiri and accidentally killed him, because the townie obviously didn’t know what their power was. Just by the math, there’s more villagers to target strong players with powers that are more likely than not to not kill the target, so do not just assume guiri was targeted by scum. This is of course discounting that guiri himself was the village vig. I would suspect there would be more than one townie vigilante in this format though. ---
**Author:** ![Inner\_Stickler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/inner_stickler/32/318_2.png) [@Inner\_Stickler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inner_Stickler)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2011, 4:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1211 "2011-08-20T04:31:27Z")
> [@crackedquads](#): > > Nevermind, there’s no way idle can be the seer. He targeted someone else last night and got peek results about a 3rd player outside of me. Shouldn’t be bad to explain this to the village because the wolves already know my role anyways so they know he can’t be the seer. The wolves already know your role? ---
**Author:** ![crackedquads](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/b38774/32.png) [@crackedquads](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crackedquads)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2011, 4:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1212 "2011-08-20T04:33:27Z")
> [@Inner\_Stickler](#): > > The wolves already know your role? Meh, role as in my affiliation, not role as in my power. ---
**Author:** ![Inner\_Stickler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/inner_stickler/32/318_2.png) [@Inner\_Stickler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inner_Stickler)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2011, 4:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1213 "2011-08-20T04:38:09Z")
Ah, ok, over here we pretty much just call that alignment. Athough, Gad doesn’t eliminate the possibility of neutrals so really the best the wolves could say is that you’re nonscum. ---
**Author:** ![crackedquads](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/b38774/32.png) [@crackedquads](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crackedquads)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2011, 4:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1214 "2011-08-20T04:45:12Z")
> [@Inner\_Stickler](#): > > Ah, ok, over here we pretty much just call that alignment. Athough, Gad doesn’t eliminate the possibility of neutrals so really the best the wolves could say is that you’re nonscum. Yeah I’ll use role/affiliation interchangeably referring to the latter and role/power also referring to the later. Should be fairly obvious what I mean depending on the context of the post but I’ll try to be clearer given this particular format since no one really knows their powers yet. Agreed that non-wolf could be villager/neutral, but idle is accidentally clearing himself as a possible seer when he claims me as wolf, that’s why if you’re really trying to leave fakepeeks for the village then you should usually claim someone as a villager because you’re more likely to be correct. The flip side to fakepeeking a wolf though, is that the few times you are right you’re more likely to be nightkilled. When that happens then you can turbo lynch the person who was claimed wolf. ---
**Author:** ![Idle\_Thoughts](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/838e76/32.png) [@Idle\_Thoughts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Idle_Thoughts)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2011, 4:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1215 "2011-08-20T04:45:51Z")
> [@crackedquads](#): > > If you’re in danger of being mislynched, you MUST come clean about this before you die. The entire village is going to merrily mislynch me if you die as a seer and leave this fake breadcrumb behind. The odds you’re doing this as the actual seer is very small, but you don’t seem to really grasp the idea of fakepeeking so you may have left a fake peek as the real seer (if you’re the real seer, you’re supposed to leave behind your REAL peek). > > If you’re the real seer, absolutely do not admit to fakepeeking me, you’ll just out yourself that way. You probably shouldn’t even do it if you aren’t the seer. I already said that I got a Night action yields no results message, so no, I don’t think I’m the Seer. I’d think (well, hope) I’d have gotten results if I were it. > [@crackedquads](#): > > And for the above reasons, **Suburban Plankton** is my clearest villager for the time being. I still don’t get this. You’re clearing Sub Plank as villager because Silman said he was. But Silman was just a journalist and there isn’t anything in the journalist read out that suggest he’d know anything about anyone’s role. And I know where you’re going to go next: The fact that the wolves would try for it anyway, just to be safe, because they’d think he was telling the truth and by killing Silman, it confirms that Sub Plank is probably Town, right? Only problem with that is, it was already mentioned/explained/discussioned in [this post.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14149800&postcount=219) Post 219 by Episkey (number 4). And then rebutted [in this post](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14149892&postcount=237) by me (Post 237). So how do you know Silnam didn’t just happen to guess wrong and the scum killed him off just because they know the POGers would clear him? After all, they’ll have been reading the same posts you and I have…it’s certainly something you have to consider. And, yes, scum would totally do that. If I’ve learned anything in this game, it’s that scum would always do that. That being what you think they wouldn’t do just to throw you off the track. ---
**Author:** ![Inner\_Stickler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/inner_stickler/32/318_2.png) [@Inner\_Stickler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inner_Stickler)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2011, 4:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1216 "2011-08-20T04:49:31Z")
> [@crackedquads](#): > > When that happens then you can turbo lynch the person who was claimed wolf. I’m not really a fan of that though and over here we’ve even floated the idea of having cops not share their results until close to Day end to avoid everyone piling on the wolf and leaving no vote record. One of the top considerations for me when I’m scum is who’s suspicious of whom and how can I use that to make town mislynch. ---
**Author:** ![Idle\_Thoughts](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/838e76/32.png) [@Idle\_Thoughts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Idle_Thoughts)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2011, 4:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1217 "2011-08-20T04:49:34Z")
I’m not calling Sub Plank scum here, by the way, I’m just using it as an example since it’s one that has actually happened. You’re basically soft-clearing people that were said to be Town by people not the Seer. But for all you know, scum killed them just so you’d do that. Nobody is being cleared by me until they’re dead or upon another (confirmed) Townies death, possiby (to quote someone else earlier— **SisterCoyote** , I think?) ---
**Author:** ![Idle\_Thoughts](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/838e76/32.png) [@Idle\_Thoughts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Idle_Thoughts)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2011, 4:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1218 "2011-08-20T04:49:49Z")
I’m not calling Sub Plank scum here, by the way, I’m just using it as an example since it’s one that has actually happened. You’re basically soft-clearing people that were said to be Town by people not the Seer. But for all you know, scum killed them just so you’d do that. Nobody is being cleared by me until they’re dead or upon another (confirmed) Townies death, possiby (to quote someone else earlier— **SisterCoyote** , I think?) ---
**Author:** ![Idle\_Thoughts](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/838e76/32.png) [@Idle\_Thoughts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Idle_Thoughts)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2011, 4:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1219 "2011-08-20T04:50:45Z")
Sorry for the double post. ---
**Author:** ![crackedquads](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/b38774/32.png) [@crackedquads](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crackedquads)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2011, 4:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1220 "2011-08-20T04:52:46Z")
There was something I missed when originally applying to the below post, Idle: > [@Idle\_Thoughts](#): > > As far as I can tell, these are some of the possibilities (leaving out the possibility that I could be lying simply because I know I’m not) > > 1. I was thinking that maybe my power would be whoever I target, I get the message that THEY get from whoever they target (same as what they read). No idea what this kind of role would be called, if true. Night Watchman, maybe? > And if this IS the case, I don’t know why it would say my Night action yielded no result. > > 2. Someone targeted me to tell me **Dancecat** is a Villager (since I voted for **Dancecat** for the majority of yesterDay). > If this is the case, though, I don’t know how the person KNEW that they’d be telling me that **Dancecat** was a Villager or even how they were able to pick her. That would require the person knowing that they tell other players peoples’ alignment and had choice. > > 3. **Dancecat** targeted me herself (since I voted for her most of the day yesterDay). > If this is the case, again, I can’t see her knowing that I’d get the info she was a Villager…so it’s just a good coincidence for her. Maybe her power is that those she targets gets told she’s Town? > > 4. Someone else was supposed to get the info that **Dancecat** is Town and it was redirected to me somehow. > As for the possible combinations, either: > I’m Town and DC is Town > I’m scum and DC is scum > I’m scum and DC is Town > I’m Town and DC is scum > > It’s already been noted that 2 would be stupid for scum (I think it would be, too) > and it can’t be 4 unless I’m being given bad information. > > That leaves 1 and 3…and I can tell you it isn’t three (for all the good it wouldn’t do) : p > > Either one, though, **Dancecat** is Town, so I’m pretty much going to think of her that from now on. I have no reason to disbelieve the info, lest Gad is a Gad\*stard Mod or there’s a type of role out there that has the power to lie about alignments, randomly. > \*[sic] re: the underlined part. Rather there being a randomizer like I theorized, there is almost definitely a redirecter. From silman’s writeup: > [@](#): > > Silman, you are a Journalist. Each night beginning Night One, you select a target. You will learn if your target’s night action has been changed, redirected, or blocked. You will also overhear any messages sent to your target. Peeks do not count as messages. You are a Villager. You win when all threats to Town Village have been eliminated. There’s redirector’s out there which is the reason you (as you say) got the results for dancecat. I’ve never played in a game with a redirector so I’m not really sure how that role should work. I think that the results got redirected away from the intended recipient only, so whoever originally targeted dancecat should be a seer. **Idle** , did you only get an affiliation peek, or both affiliation and power? If you got affiliation only, then we can assume that the seer is a villager (the wolves wouldn’t really need an affiliation only seer). If you got an affiliation + power result, then that _could_ be a wolf seer power. ---
**Author:** ![Idle\_Thoughts](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/838e76/32.png) [@Idle\_Thoughts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Idle_Thoughts)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2011, 4:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1221 "2011-08-20T04:53:58Z")
It was just alignment. It said Villager (and it was in green bold font). [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025.md?page=60) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025.md?page=62)