# Mystery Mafia -- Game Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [August 17, 2011, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025 "2011-08-17T14:03:37Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 88
**Author:** ![Gadarene](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Gadarene](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gadarene)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1742 "2011-08-22T20:31:43Z")
**UPDATED DAY TWO VOTE COUNT** Through post #1741 gnarlycharlie (6): [del]Weedy [1279][/del], lilflower [1720], Idle Thoughts [1723], brewha [1732], Silver Jan [1735], NAF1138 [1737], Drain Bead [1738] Scuba\_Ben (4): Blaster Master [1109], [del]Drain Bead [1190][/del], Suburban Plankton [1449], Weedy [1452], Scathach [1499], [del]Idle Thoughts [1507][/del] peekercpa (3): Giraffe [1320], bufftabby [1646], septimus [1664] Giraffe (2): Normal Phase [1157], [del]peekercpa [1267][/del], [del]Askthepizzaguy [1341][/del], Astral Rejection [1547], [del]Askthepizzaguy [1548][/del], [del]peekercpa [1588][/del] Weedy (2): Scuba\_Ben [1586], Askthepizzaguy [1590] Silver Jan (1): Zeriel [1126] Blaster Master (1): sachertorte [1135], [del]septimus [1367][/del] Episkey (1): crackedquads [1552] DonkTimesFour (1): peekercpa [1663] Askthepizzaguy (0): [del]peekercpa [1524][/del] Precambrianmollusc (0): [del]Idle Thoughts [1143][/del] Brewha (0): [del]Askthepizzaguy [1256][/del], [del]Askthepizzaguy [1472][/del] Please PM me with any corrections. ---
**Author:** ![lilflower](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ecccb3/32.png) [@lilflower](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lilflower)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1743 "2011-08-22T20:32:12Z")
> [@Drain\_Bead](#): > > Glad I read the whole thread before I responded. Was convinced by a couple of things to switch to peeker, but if we’ve got an identified Scum, let’s get him gone. > > Question because I’m posting from my phone: who said earlier that they got the message SJ was Town. Was it Idle? Who reported the same about Dancecat? > > **unvote Scuba Ben > vote gnarlycharlie** > > Jesus that was a pain in the ass. It was **Scuba Ben**. I don’t have the post number though. ---
**Author:** ![Silver\_Jan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/90ced4/32.png) [@Silver\_Jan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Silver_Jan)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1744 "2011-08-22T20:32:45Z")
> [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > This whole Magic Bag thing rubs me the wrong way, as as you’re one of the people I think the **Krayz** wagon may have been constructed to save. Frankly, I’m inclined to believe you’re saying you have this information because you know you’re probably next on the block, especially if **Ben** flips scum and you’re the scum he and **Mahaloth** were trying to save. > > However, you identify someone as a wolf, which means if you’re telling the truth, he’s a wolf and we should lynch him if he’s not a wolf, then you’re lying and thus you’re a wolf (or a PFK) and we should lynch you. So, tell us, why should we lynch him first and not you since, between the two of you, you’re the only one I have a read on, and it’s bad. Lynch me then. I am too pissed off at the moment to care. I go today and tomorrow you get **gnarly**. ---
**Author:** ![bufftabby](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/77aa72/32.png) [@bufftabby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bufftabby)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1745 "2011-08-22T20:32:49Z")
> [@Silver\_Jan](#): > > **Vote Gnarlycharlie** > > @ **Bufftabby** you have really upset me. you asked me a question and I answered it and now you jump all over me. I found that really nasty! You stated that you submitted your targets last Night, when you actually submitted them yesterDay. That makes all the difference. I was asking you questions to clarify what you meant, and I most assuredly did not jump all over you or do anything nasty. ---
**Author:** ![lilflower](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ecccb3/32.png) [@lilflower](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lilflower)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1746 "2011-08-22T20:33:50Z")
> [@bufftabby](#): > > **Jan** ’s claim makes no logical sense to me. > She says she needed a second target in case her first target was lynched. People aren’t lynched at Night. I could buy that the role had some sort of delayed reaction if this was the sum of it, IOW a Night action that doesn’t take place until the following Night. But she already has a result. So where would being lynched ever come in? Based on **Gad** ’s response, my guess is that \*\*Jan \*\*sent in her target too early and maybe the second target, being the most recent, was the one she got a result on. ---
**Author:** ![TexCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texcat/32/9041_2.png) [@TexCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TexCat)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1747 "2011-08-22T20:34:36Z")
> [@Silver\_Jan](#): > > Except I don’t really know my role, it was the second name I put down that I got a result on. It could have been a redirect or anything. A lot of players think I am scum anyway ☹ If I had started a case on **Gnarly** he would have suspected something right away. I am confused here. You don’t know your role? And I’d like to re-iterate Idle’s question, are you sure about your results? Did anyone else target gnarlycharlie last night? ---
**Author:** ![lilflower](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ecccb3/32.png) [@lilflower](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lilflower)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1748 "2011-08-22T20:35:18Z")
> [@Silver\_Jan](#): > > Lynch me then. I am too pissed off at the moment to care. I go today and tomorrow you get **gnarly**. Why are you getting so pissed off? You have to expect that we are going to question claims, especially when you claim to have caught a scum. ---
**Author:** ![Drain\_Bead](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e47774/32.png) [@Drain\_Bead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Drain_Bead)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1749 "2011-08-22T20:35:48Z")
Is **Scuba Ben** also claiming that tonight he gets two Night targets, or was I reading that wrong? ---
**Author:** ![Dancecat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c5a1d2/32.png) [@Dancecat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dancecat)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1750 "2011-08-22T20:36:07Z")
> [@NAF1138](#): > > Make your case. You never know. At this point I am willing to listen to what you have to say. I’ll do the whole thing tonight if I think it’s really necessary after further consideration. The cliff’s notes version is that I want to lynch Episkey, but I want to do so for reasons that are largely meta-based from the exchange I had with him earlier about post construction/clearing based on thought process. I’ll have to reread all the posts in question to find out if there’s really any merit to it; right now it’s just a thought. ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1751 "2011-08-22T20:36:56Z")
> [@lilflower](#): > > Why are you getting so pissed off? You have to expect that we are going to question claims, especially when you claim to have caught a scum. You know, typically that isn’t what happens right? Usually if someone claims to have caught scum the claim is tested with a lynch fairly well right away. ---
**Author:** ![Dancecat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c5a1d2/32.png) [@Dancecat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dancecat)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1752 "2011-08-22T20:37:13Z")
Nobody gets two night targets ffs. Even redirecters (if they do exist) couldn’t get two targets because it goes against the whole nature of the game. ---
**Author:** ![Silver\_Jan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/90ced4/32.png) [@Silver\_Jan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Silver_Jan)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1753 "2011-08-22T20:38:29Z")
> [@lilflower](#): > > Why are you getting so pissed off? You have to expect that we are going to question claims, especially when you claim to have caught a scum. I am not upset at being questioned, I am upset at\*\* Bufftabby\*\* saying that she hopes I get sanctioned for just answering her question honestly. ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1754 "2011-08-22T20:38:32Z")
> [@Dancecat](#): > > I’ll do the whole thing tonight if I think it’s really necessary after further consideration. The cliff’s notes version is that I want to lynch Episkey, but I want to do so for reasons that are largely meta-based from the exchange I had with him earlier about post construction/clearing based on thought process. I’ll have to reread all the posts in question to find out if there’s really any merit to it; right now it’s just a thought. Well, I like meta arguments personally. I am in a minority here, but I feel that meta-gaming is an unavoidable part of the game so it’s best to embrace it rather than try to pretend we aren’t doing it. Just a side note really. I am still digesting what I missed the last couple of days. ---
**Author:** ![brewha](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/91b2a8/32.png) [@brewha](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brewha)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1755 "2011-08-22T20:38:33Z")
> [@Blaster\_Master](#): > > This whole Magic Bag thing rubs me the wrong way, as as you’re one of the people I think the **Krayz** wagon may have been constructed to save. Frankly, I’m inclined to believe you’re saying you have this information because you know you’re probably next on the block, especially if **Ben** flips scum and you’re the scum he and **Mahaloth** were trying to save. > > However, you identify someone as a wolf, which means if you’re telling the truth, he’s a wolf and we should lynch him if he’s not a wolf, then you’re lying and thus you’re a wolf (or a PFK) and we should lynch you.\*\* So, tell us, why should we lynch him first and not you\*\* since, between the two of you, you’re the only one I have a read on, and it’s bad. Bolding by me. I considered this same thing. But, if SilverJan is telling the truth and we find out by lynching her, than we just killed our Seer. If she’s lying and we find out by killing Charlie - we kill a townie and then we kill a scummy SilverJan next. I think that we’re better off to not risk killing a seer - though unless we have a doctor who knows they’re a doctor, SilverJan may be in trouble tonight. ---
**Author:** ![Gadarene](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Gadarene](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gadarene)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1756 "2011-08-22T20:38:54Z")
> [@lilflower](#): > > Based on **Gad** ’s response, my guess is that \*\*Jan \*\*sent in her target too early and maybe the second target, being the most recent, was the one she got a result on. I’ll respond to this as well: The section in the OP about conditional targets should clarify things to some extent. **Absent some other mechanic, there is no mechanism by which a player could submit two conditional targets and have their result shunted to the second of the two conditional targets if the first is still alive at the end of the day.** I want to be clear about this so people don’t think that there are ways their conditional targets will go awry because of when they submitted them. ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1757 "2011-08-22T20:39:53Z")
> [@Silver\_Jan](#): > > I am not upset at being questioned, I am upset at\*\* Bufftabby\*\* saying that she hopes I get sanctioned for just answering her question honestly. Don’t be upset about that. It would prove that you were telling the truth. It’s cold, but it’s really the right attitude. If you don’t get sanctioned it would leave things ambiguous in a way that would be unfortunate. ---
**Author:** ![brewha](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/91b2a8/32.png) [@brewha](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brewha)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1758 "2011-08-22T20:40:34Z")
> [@TexCat](#): > > If we assume that peeker is scum, and that krayz, silverjan, and I are town, then we need to look mostly at the votes made while peeker was still in trouble. After peeker is out of danger, scum would vote mainly just try to stay out of the limelight. > > I’ll look at the timing in detail: > At [363](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14150824&postcount=363): > peekercpa (3): Giraffe [301], special ed [313], NAF1138 [337] > MykBot (2): Zeriel [21], TimeLady [24] > TimeLady (2): sachertorte [211], Suburban Plankton [352] > [379](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14151000&postcount=379) ScubaBen votes peeker. This is where I think scum swung into action to save peeker. > [383](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14151072&postcount=383) peeker votes Giraffe > [386](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14151124&postcount=386) DrainBead votes Guiri > [418](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14151369&postcount=418) krayz votes Giraffe “probably not changing. also didn’t read past this at all yet, but this is as bad as it gets.” > [459](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14151629&postcount=459) texcat votes Mykbot > [473](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14151915&postcount=473) Inner votes texcat > [484](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14152283&postcount=484) SilverJan votes peeker. Now peeker has 5 votes with no one really close. Perhaps now scum is really going into action. > [487](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14152346&postcount=487) Ed votes SilverJan (I never saw an unvote of peeker) > [489](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14152351&postcount=489) Drain, having previously unvoted Guiri, now votes krayz > [493](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14152405&postcount=493) Meeko pops in and votes krayz > [494](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14152495&postcount=494) lilflower votes texcat > [498](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14152667&postcount=498) Ben unvotes peeker, votes krayz > [vote count 501](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14152726&postcount=501)This leaves us at peeker(3), krayz(3) and a bunch at 1 and 2 votes. > > At 484 peeker gets the 5th vote, and then there is a quick flurry of votes. With this GnarleyCharlie business, I don’t want to lose this. That’s the way I read it too. It basically comes down to Peeker getting in trouble and bandwagons springing up around him. I still don’t understand why Krays was defending Peeker, though. ---
**Author:** ![bufftabby](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/77aa72/32.png) [@bufftabby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bufftabby)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1759 "2011-08-22T20:43:14Z")
> [@lilflower](#): > > Based on **Gad** ’s response, my guess is that \*\*Jan \*\*sent in her target too early and maybe the second target, being the most recent, was the one she got a result on. Now that things are a bit clearer, I wonder whether **Jan** ’s targetting of **gnarlycharlie** is what actually delivered the results to her. If her first D1-submitted target was not in fact lynched, it makes no sense to move to the second target for her result. But we’ve already seen players who claim to have received information about people they didn’t target. If **Jan** ’s telling the truth, I think it’s most likely that her info on **gnarly** came from elsewhere, and she would’ve received it regardless of whether he was her second target. As she initially presented the scenario, it seemed logically impossible that she was being truthful, but knowing that she submitted her targets D1 instead of N1 at least makes the scenario _possible_. [QUOTE=Silver Jan] I am not upset at being questioned, I am upset at Bufftabby saying that she hopes I get sanctioned for just answering her question honestly. [/QUOTE] That didn’t happen. _Expecting_ does not equal _hoping_. ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1760 "2011-08-22T20:43:15Z")
Wait, guys, why the sudden switch? There’s no reason to believe **Silver Jan** over, inevitably, **GnarlyCharlie** ’s “she’s lying” response. If she’s telling the truth, and we lynch him first, great. If she’s lying and he turns up town, then we just lynch her Tomorrow. Her claim doesn’t tell us anything by itself and cannot be verified without lynching someone else. That said, since we now know that one of them is definitely a wolf, I think it’s probably in our best interest to lynch one of them Today, and we can always lynch **Scuba\_Ben** later; however, I don’t think it should necessarily follow that it should be **GnarlyCharlie** and not **Silver Jan** , and I’m inclined toward the latter. So… **Vote Silver Jan** Bottom line, you may be a Seer , but at this point you’re not doing us any good since the scum already know if you’re lying or not, so you might as well not hold the magic bag and tell us what you know without obfuscation. ---
**Author:** ![Giraffe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/giraffe/32/129_2.png) [@Giraffe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Giraffe)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1761 "2011-08-22T20:43:54Z")
> [@lilflower](#): > > I took **Texcat** ’s list of lynch candidates (just the four she posted earlier) and put them in order. I’m not sure if other votes or the voting/unvoting would make the analysis results very different but actually, but my first thought is that this does look like a bandwagon that could have been to save **Texcat**. I guess it depends on how you define “when the band wagonning started.” > > Giraffe [301] peekercpa (1) > NAF1138 [337] peekercpa (2) > Inner Stickler [473] TexCat (1) > Silver Jan [484] peekercpa (3) > special ed [487] Silver Jan (1) > Drain Bead [489] \*\*Krayz \*\*(1) > Meeko/sangaman [493] \*\*Krayz \*\*(2) > lilflower [494] TexCat (2) > DanceCat [513] Silver Jan (2) > Mahaloth [540] \*\*Krayz \*\*(3) > MykBot [586] TexCat (3) > Episkey [617] Silver Jan (3) > gnarlycharlie [636] TexCat (4) > Idle Thoughts [706] \*\*Krayz \*\*(4) > LightFoot [717] \*\*Krayz \*\*(5) > Scuba\_Ben [736] \*\*Krayz \*\*(6) > Normal Phase [739] TexCat (5) > crackedquads [743] peekercpa (4) > Precambrianmollusc [771] \*\*Krayz \*\*(7) > bufftabby [795] Silver Jan (4) > Blaster Master [820] Silver Jan (5) This is a really useful post, thanks for making it. It really helps see how the cascade of votes went down on the lynch leaders yesterDay. As someone who thinks **peeker** is a wolf, I find it very interesting to note that **Mahaloth** (the now-deceased wolf) put the third vote on **Krayz** when **peeker** was the lynch leader at three, bringing them into a tie. **TexCat** had two votes at that point. Most scum I’ve played with have been too cautious to do something as obvious as place subsequent votes on a Townsperson to save a fellow scum, so I’m soft-clearing **Meeko/sangaman** and **Idle Thoughts** (votes #2 and #4 on **Krayz** ) for now. The rest of the cascade really depends on whether **TexCat** is a wolf or Town. If Town, I think all the Krayz votes after 4 are a null tell once **TexCat** also had 4 – scum could have easily padded out the vote to make sure **peeker** stayed well away from the lead, or they could have sat back to see where the bandwagon went first. However, if both **TexCat** and **peeker** are wolves, then I think it’s very likely one of the later **Krayz** voters is also a wolf: **Lightfoot** , **Scuba\_ben** , or **Precambrianmollusc**. I’d also withdraw my soft clear on **Idle Thoughts** if this were the case. Now, all this has assumed that **peeker** is a wolf. Let’s look at the voting from the perspective of him being Town and **TexCat** being a wolf: One wolf ( **TexCat** ) has two votes, one Townsperson has three ( **peeker** ) and another has two ( **Krayz** ). Fellow wolf **Mahaloth** comes in and pushes **Krayz** up to three. **Mykbot** and **gnarlycharlie** push **TexCat** up to four, after which three votes in a row ( **Idle Thoughts** , **Lightfoot** , **Scuba Ben** ) push **Krayz** up to six. So, if **TexCat** flipped wolf, I’d view **Mykbot** and **gnarlycharlie** as likely Town, and put the FOS on Idle, Lightfoot, and Scuba Ben. I’d view **Normal Phase** as likely Town as well, for her vote narrowing the gap on **TexCat** to 5-6. **Episkey** also earns the FOS for putting a third vote on **Silver Jan** right after **Mahaloth** put a third one on **Krayz**. Overall, the dynamics of this situation seem off to me – I’m having a hard time seeing a case where the scum would simultaneously be bold enough to try to pump up a Townie bandwagon to save a fellow scum yet not put a single vote on the Town player with the vote lead at the time (peeker). Given **Mahaloth** ’s vote, I think it’s far more likely that he was trying to save a scum peeker than a scum TexCat. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025.md?page=87) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025.md?page=89)