# Mystery Mafia -- Game Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [August 17, 2011, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025 "2011-08-17T14:03:37Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 95
**Author:** ![peekercpa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8baadc/32.png) [@peekercpa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/peekercpa)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1882 "2011-08-22T23:42:57Z")
> [@Dancecat](#): > > Let me be the first to say that this is bullshit. > > Thanks. yepper pepper. crap i figured it out on Day1. that’s fucking quick even for me. ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1883 "2011-08-22T23:43:52Z")
Please, I know I’ve been a gigantic \*\*\*\*-up in other games that shall remain nameless, but I’ve WON dethy mafia games all by myself before. I know exactly how to play dethy mafia games, which are the games with 5+ cop variants. I am going to be more accurate on this point than any other point I ever make. Even if gnarlycharlie is scum, scanning him with your other cops gets you MORE VALUABLE information than one dead mafioso, and then you lynch his ass anyway 3 rounds from now. You lose nothing. ---
**Author:** ![lilflower](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ecccb3/32.png) [@lilflower](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lilflower)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1884 "2011-08-22T23:44:38Z")
I think you make a good point because I really don’t see any reason for a scum Jan to claim a scum result on a townie. The question is if we want to lose a possible mason to prove it. If we think Jan is insane or paranoid, should we lynch her? Maybe not since there is a slim chance her result is correct, right? But the scum mason claim is also risky and probably not likely since it’s easily verified. I think I need to read these last few pages again. I’m starting to think I want to leave Jan, gnarly and Texcat alone for another Night and lynch Weedy. Maybe I missed it but he hasn’t responded to my observation that his alleged message has information in it that no one else’s seems to have. ---
**Author:** ![Idle\_Thoughts](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/838e76/32.png) [@Idle\_Thoughts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Idle_Thoughts)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1885 "2011-08-22T23:48:38Z")
> [@Scathach](#): > > Only one of those scenario’s makes gnarlycharlie a wolf. And that scenario involves the wolves playing a really risky game. Occcam’s razor and all. You’re leaving out possibilities. **Silver Jan** could also just be a villager who isn’t a cop and just got the message about gnarly randomly (like me and the other five people did). In my opinion, nothing I’ve seen makes Jan a villager any more from when I voted for her (in the post that I did). I also think that Occam’s Razor would apply to “Jan is a wolf who is lying” just as much, but YMMV. In the end, we have to lynch somebody, so like someone else said ( **lilflower**?), I’d go with whoever’s alignment would give us the most info. ---
**Author:** ![TexCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texcat/32/9041_2.png) [@TexCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TexCat)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1886 "2011-08-22T23:51:35Z")
> [@Askthepizzaguy](#): > > Please, I know I’ve been a gigantic \*\*\*\*-up in other games that shall remain nameless, but I’ve WON dethy mafia games all by myself before. > > I know exactly how to play dethy mafia games, which are the games with 5+ cop variants. > > I am going to be more accurate on this point than any other point I ever make. Even if gnarlycharlie is scum, scanning him with your other cops gets you MORE VALUABLE information than one dead mafioso, and then you lynch his ass anyway 3 rounds from now. > > You lose nothing. I agree with this, but the problem is that we don’t have much of a clue who is a cop, not to mention what kind of cop they are. The cops don’t even know they are cops necessarily yet. And on preview, wtf? lynch weedy? What on earth would that gain us? ---
**Author:** ![Scathach](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aeb1de/32.png) [@Scathach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scathach)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 11:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1887 "2011-08-22T23:53:57Z")
> [@Idle\_Thoughts](#): > > You’re leaving out possibilities. > > **Silver Jan** could also just be a villager who isn’t a cop and just got the message about gnarly randomly (like me and the other five people did). True - I was misled by the fact that she said she targeted gnarlycharlie. But since her original target wasn’t dead then I guess that’s where her night action went, and the conditional gnarlycharlie target was an unfortunate coincidence. (Unfortunate in that it adds an extra layer of confusion). So what lynch gives the most information? ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 11:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1888 "2011-08-22T23:53:59Z")
The only problem I see with this move is that there could be roles which re-direct the results on gnarlycharlie away from him, which renders all 4+ cop results inaccurate for charlie. That’s the new variable. I don’t know what to say about that one. The idea I put forth makes sense, but it’s possible the scum have the power to render the usual dethy tactics worthless. As such, I would recommend presume gnarly is innocent, but also only trust the results of the cop claims on gnarly for tonight at the flip of a coin. It’s going to be 50/50. They’re either still useful for charlie or they’re not. I wish I had better news than that. I’m afraid what you’ve got is a situation surrounding gnarly where the odds are huge he’s innocent, and it’s going to be hard to confirm anything about him while re-directors exist. Sorry. I know this sucks, but I am compelled to put this info out there so it’s at least considered, because the first part about gnarly being innocent is likely true (not guaranteed, mind you) but my suggested solution I just realized had a re-director flaw. It’s a crap shoot that you’d be able to scan gnarlycharlie and get useful information tonight. I’d still recommend it, because whoever the scan results get redirected to, all of the cops will have still scanned that person. That means whoever that person is, at least 2 of the cops will have useful information to share about them, and it may help them determine their paranoid, insane, naive, or sane status. So the advice is still good, but the conclusion will only be useful for the cops, it may not be useful for confirming gnarlycharlie. Ummm guess that’s it. I think that covers all the bases with this complex setup. Any objections to this, logic-wise? ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1889 "2011-08-22T23:58:04Z")
**Recommend lynching one of the folks we were going to lynch this round before all the claims hit us.** Those were suspects for standard mafia-suspicion-related reasons. It’s going to give you a better shot at figuring out who is full of crap regardless of if you hit scum or townie with those lynches. If you lynch away everyone involved in this cop/whisper/mason debacle, I can almost guarantee you, everyone you lynch will be townie. I repeat the advice I give every game: Do not rely on power roles to save the game for you. You know how easy this game would be if there were ZERO results to work with? As in, everyone was vanilla? We’d use our natural scum-finding instincts to find the scum. And who flips scum helps us figure out who else is scum. The power roles are actually a hindrance to our discussion, and our reliance on our better scum-finding method, which is by behavior. Please, power roles are icing on the cake. They SUCK without a cake to put it on. The cake is behavioral analysis. The CAKE is not a lie. Focus on the cake. The icing comes later. **Does anyone support the go-back-to-before-the-claims plan? I do.** ---
**Author:** ![special\_ed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5ac83/32.png) [@special\_ed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/special_ed)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1890 "2011-08-22T23:58:56Z")
oh good lord! will you all just be quiet?! ---
**Author:** ![Idle\_Thoughts](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/838e76/32.png) [@Idle\_Thoughts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Idle_Thoughts)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1891 "2011-08-22T23:59:05Z")
Oh, and not to stir the peeker assumption pot, but this is now the third full day that mykbot hasn’t posted (he hasn’t posted once the whole game Day). I’m starting to wonder if **Peeker** IS onto something. Either **mykbot** has been silenced or he’s in need of a sub, because not posting yet toDay? It is starting to look weird/suspicious. ---
**Author:** ![Scathach](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aeb1de/32.png) [@Scathach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scathach)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1892 "2011-08-22T23:59:53Z")
> [@Askthepizzaguy](#): > > The only problem I see with this move is that there could be roles which re-direct the results on gnarlycharlie away from him, which renders all 4+ cop results inaccurate for charlie. > > That’s the new variable. I don’t know what to say about that one. The idea I put forth makes sense, but it’s possible the scum have the power to render the usual dethy tactics worthless. > > As such, I would recommend presume gnarly is innocent, but also only trust the results of the cop claims on gnarly for tonight at the flip of a coin. It’s going to be 50/50. They’re either still useful for charlie or they’re not. > > I wish I had better news than that. I’m afraid what you’ve got is a situation surrounding gnarly where the odds are huge he’s innocent, and it’s going to be hard to confirm anything about him while re-directors exist. > > Sorry. I know this sucks, but I am compelled to put this info out there so it’s at least considered, because the first part about gnarly being innocent is likely true (not guaranteed, mind you) but my suggested solution I just realized had a re-director flaw. > > It’s a crap shoot that you’d be able to scan gnarlycharlie and get useful information tonight. I’d still recommend it, because whoever the scan results get redirected to, all of the cops will have still scanned that person. > > That means whoever that person is, at least 2 of the cops will have useful information to share about them, and it may help them determine their paranoid, insane, naive, or sane status. > > So the advice is still good, but the conclusion will only be useful for the cops, it may not be useful for confirming gnarlycharlie. > > Ummm guess that’s it. I think that covers all the bases with this complex setup. > > Any objections to this, logic-wise? I don’t think anyone can know if they’re a cop though. No one actually seems to have gotten a result on anyone they meant to investigate. ---
**Author:** ![TexCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texcat/32/9041_2.png) [@TexCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TexCat)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2011, 12:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1893 "2011-08-23T00:00:04Z")
I don’t know how many people targeted me last night, aside from Gnarlycharlie. But I do know that Weedy received a correct result. So someone targeting me last night was a good cop with results sent to Weedy? And I am not sure how redirection works. If everyone targets Gnarly tonight, I am worried that we might get garbled noise. I’d like everyone who targeted me last night to target Charlie tonight. And everyone who thinks they might be a cop to target me tonight. ---
**Author:** ![lilflower](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ecccb3/32.png) [@lilflower](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lilflower)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2011, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1894 "2011-08-23T00:05:04Z")
@ Texcat: I suggested Weedy because his message has different information that others were claiming which makes me think it is more likely to be a false claim. However, someone upthread mentioned whisperers (or maybe we’ve got eavesdroppers) so it’s possible his message is the result of a different mechanism than others’. ---
**Author:** ![Idle\_Thoughts](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/838e76/32.png) [@Idle\_Thoughts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Idle_Thoughts)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2011, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1895 "2011-08-23T00:05:44Z")
> [@Askthepizzaguy](#): > > **Does anyone support the go-back-to-before-the-claims plan? I do.** Meh. I’m not all that hot on it, although I’ll certainly do it if it comes to that. My worry is that tomorrow the same problem will still be there, though, with nothing new to help decide anyone’s mind nor any new info (like if someone’s lying, if people shouldn’t trust the PMs, etc) to help. ---
**Author:** ![Scathach](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aeb1de/32.png) [@Scathach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scathach)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2011, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1896 "2011-08-23T00:09:48Z")
> [@Idle\_Thoughts](#): > > Meh. I’m not all that hot on it, although I’ll certainly do it if it comes to that. > My worry is that tomorrow the same problem will still be there, though, with nothing new to help decide anyone’s mind nor any new info (like if someone’s lying, if people shouldn’t trust the PMs, etc) to help. Hopefully we’ll have a slew of new results which may at least help us find a pattern to some of the night actions. \*\* vote Scuba\_ben \*\* ---
**Author:** ![Inner\_Stickler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/inner_stickler/32/318_2.png) [@Inner\_Stickler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inner_Stickler)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2011, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1897 "2011-08-23T00:12:12Z")
At some point we’ll have to start lynching into the pile of messages. It doesn’t have to be Today but I don’t like the idea of leaving the pile be for scum to root around in all by themselves. ---
**Author:** ![TexCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texcat/32/9041_2.png) [@TexCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TexCat)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2011, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1898 "2011-08-23T00:15:36Z")
> [@TexCat](#): > > I don’t know how many people targeted me last night, aside from Gnarlycharlie. But I do know that Weedy received a correct result. So someone targeting me last night was a good cop with results sent to Weedy? And I am not sure how redirection works. If everyone targets Gnarly tonight, I am worried that we might get garbled noise. I’d like everyone who targeted me last night to target Charlie tonight. And everyone who thinks they might be a cop to target me tonight. Let me expand on this. Hopefully, the real cop will get a real result on Gnarly, and we might confirm it. If not, we can lynch Gnarly (or me) toMorrow to confirm results. In the meantime, if the other cops target me tonight, we (or certainly at least me) can help start sorting out whether they are insane, etc. I know that no one is confirmed until dead, but I suggest that we can get a lot of information that can be confirmed after either I am dead or Gnarly is dead. ---
**Author:** ![Scathach](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aeb1de/32.png) [@Scathach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scathach)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2011, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1899 "2011-08-23T00:16:04Z")
My thinking is if someone targeted X on Night 1, and Y got a result about X. Then if they target Z on night 2, and Y gets a result about Z well then… …actually I don’t know. You could still be insane/paranoid what-have-you. I suppose if the person they targeted is then lynched, they might at least know if they’re getting true results or not. ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2011, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1900 "2011-08-23T00:16:42Z")
Oh come on. \*\* Unvote\*\* I am not voting for anyone who has claimed right now. Maybe after I sleep on it I will change my mind, but I don’t want to wade into that mess. ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2011, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/1901 "2011-08-23T00:19:32Z")
Remember that of the 5 ‘alignment reveals’ we have had Today, exactly \*zero \*of them concerns the player that the claimant actually targeted last Night, This means (assuming for the moment that all of the claimants are Town) that none of these people is actually a Cop…or that if any of them is a Cop, the fact that they received an alignment result is coincidental to their Role. It may well be the case that the ‘real’ Cops are not receiving their own results…which means that they may not know for certain that they are Cops at this point. I would suggest that anyone who targeted **gnarlycharlie** , **TexCat** , **Dancecat** , **Silver Jan** , or **Blaster Master** , but received no result last Night, may in fact be a Cop whose results go to another player. I would suggest that they target another of that same group Tonight. Possible, just maybe, if we’re lucky, the results of these investigations might make things clearer Tomorrow. I agree with \*\*Pizza \*\*that we should lynch Today based on the evidence we had before the recent spate of claims and reveals. In that vein, I’m leaving my vote on **Scuba\_Ben** for now. I know, Pizza, you’d like me to come up with another name or three to go along with that one…I promise you I’ll work on that this evening and I’ll try my damndest to have something before EoD. And it would help things of the rest of you would try being a bit quieter for the next 18 hours or so… [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025.md?page=94) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025.md?page=96)