# Mystery Mafia -- Game Thread

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025>\
**Category:** The Game Room\
**Created:** [August 17, 2011, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025 "2011-08-17T14:03:37Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
**Showing post:** 2221

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**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\
**Post date:** [August 23, 2011, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystery-mafia-game-thread/593025/2221 "2011-08-23T14:47:05Z")

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> [@Askthepizzaguy](#):
>
> Oh, and by the way, since having the 4 different “sanities” for Cops will make all results confusing, this is what has to happen:
> 
> You don’t lynch any claimed cops.  
> The cops shush and gather at least 3-4 more results before claiming.  
> The cops mass claim.  
> As the cops die, you figure out which ones were sane and insane and naive and paranoid.
> 
> Then, the results begin to matter.
> 
> However, I may reverse this and suggest you lynch gnarlycharlie anyway, because if he pops town, then I fully expect you have the paranoid or insane cop who scanned gnarly.  
> [ul]  
> [li]The paranoid cop is useless, it will always get guilty results. Losing the paranoid cop loses us nothing.[/li][/ul]  
> [ul]  
> [li]The insane cop is as useful as the sane cop, because it gets 100% inaccurate results. Flip them and they become accurate.[/li][/ul]
> 
> If gnarly flips scum, then good, that’s 2 down. But I sincerely, sincerely doubt it. The odds are against it.
> 
> The only way this is true is if the SANE COP happened to hit a guilty party last night. The odds are WAY WAY WAY against that. It’s possible, yeah.
> 
> But the INSANE COP is almost 90% likelihood of getting a guilty result.
> 
> And the PARANOID COP has a 100% likelihood of getting a guilty result.
> 
> **So, understand that gnarly could be guilty, but the odds say he’s probably innocent.**

But, the problem is, I don’t think any of our message bearers have claimed cop, they’ve all claimed to have received the message in addition to their Night action. Due to this, IF there are paranoid cops or naive cops or whatever, without knowing who targetted who and when and taking into account redirects as they may occur, it will be difficult or impossible to make any meaningful distinction. This is why I’m more inclined to believe we have at least 2-3 town investigators and their messages go out in a yet undetermined way, assuming that the one that **Weedy** got also gets role information, and the rest are either generated by scum and may or may not be true, or may have been given to scum and they lied about the message they received, or the scum may have gotten nothing but lied about receiving one and the message to create more disinformation.

Regardless, at this point, I think all of these messages are interesting data points, but certainly not worth lynching a claimed mason on. I’ll reconsider my actual vote once I fully catch up.

**unvote Gnarlycharlie**

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