# Mystik Dan wins 150th Kentucky Derby by a nose in the closest 3-horse photo finish since 1947 **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Tags:** horse-sports\ **Created:** [May 5, 2024, 3:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystik-dan-wins-150th-kentucky-derby-by-a-nose-in-the-closest-3-horse-photo-finish-since-1947/1001155 "2024-05-05T03:53:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2024, 1:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystik-dan-wins-150th-kentucky-derby-by-a-nose-in-the-closest-3-horse-photo-finish-since-1947/1001155/101 "2024-05-15T13:09:09Z")
> [@Railer13](#): > > You have bet $22. You’ll either get $21 or $42. You will either lose $1 or win $20. > [@Robot\_Arm](#): > > Either I’ll finish down $1, or up $20. So it’s like getting 20-1 odds on the exact margin of victory. I thought about this a bit more. If you hit the exact margin of victory, you will receive $42 on a $22 bet. That’s not close to 20-1. In fact, it’s the same odds as a ‘normal’ bet on the spread, at the odds of -110, or 11/10. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2024, 1:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystik-dan-wins-150th-kentucky-derby-by-a-nose-in-the-closest-3-horse-photo-finish-since-1947/1001155/102 "2024-05-15T13:20:42Z")
> [@Robot\_Arm](#): > > To some degree, it doesn’t add up. They’re taking a chance that Lonnegan will misunderstand “place it”. That actually has always bugged me. A veteran gambler type like Lonnegan should have been completely hip to the _exact_ terminology that is used by such people and entities in the parimutuel universe, and have not had the viability of his bet hinging on such sophomoric ambiguities. He should have immediately clarified what, exactly, his contact meant by said phrase. ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2024, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystik-dan-wins-150th-kentucky-derby-by-a-nose-in-the-closest-3-horse-photo-finish-since-1947/1001155/103 "2024-05-15T14:51:33Z")
> [@Spoons](#): > > I can’t say for Snyder, but I’m sure that Lonnegan put it down to just the cost of doing business. Not a chance. Lonnegan killed Luthor, and sends his best hired killer after Johnny after they conned one of his numbers runners out of a few thousand dollars. He even explains that his rivals would move in on his territory if they discovered he could be taken by a couple of grifters. There’s no way he shrugs off a $500,000 con. But would he realize he was conned, and how? He saw the feds burst in, Hooker and Gondorff get shot, and then Snyder hustles him out. Would Snyder or Lonnegan have any cause to go back there; how else would they find out that they’d been stung? Maybe if nothing about the raid and the killings showed up in the news over the next couple days they’d start to suspect. We’ve gotten a little far afield from how this thread started, and I’m as much to blame as anybody for that. We started with a Game Room thread, digressed into Factual Questions about gambling, and now we’re a cnadidate for Cafe Society. With a little effort, this could be the first thread that gets moved to every forum. Or we could bring it back to horse racing in time for the Preakness. ---
**Author:** ![Spoons](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spoons/32/3141_2.png) [@Spoons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoons)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2024, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystik-dan-wins-150th-kentucky-derby-by-a-nose-in-the-closest-3-horse-photo-finish-since-1947/1001155/104 "2024-05-15T17:14:45Z")
> [@Robot\_Arm](#): > > We’ve gotten a little far afield from how this thread started, and I’m as much to blame as anybody for that. We started with a Game Room thread, digressed into Factual Questions about gambling, and now we’re a cnadidate for Cafe Society. With a little effort, this could be the first thread that gets moved to every forum. Or we could bring it back to horse racing in time for the Preakness. Yes, but I don’t think anybody minds if the thread strays a little. I don’t, anyway. Lots of good info available, a good discussion developed; and in a way, I’m kind of glad that we diverted into _The Sting_. The big scam in the film is predicated upon racing, so that movie is better-suited for this thread than, say, _Ocean’s 11_ would be. Besides, while I’m sure that none of us will ever find that we’re in the same situation as Doyle Lonnegan, it’s important to note that even today, there are various scams in racing, just as there are in every form of gambling. To bring us back to racing and the Preakness, I saw today that morning-line favourite Muth has been scratched. He’s running a fever: > **[Muth to scratch from Preakness after spiking a fever](https://www.drf.com/news/muth-scratch-preakness-after-spiking-fever)** > > Muth, the morning-line favorite for Saturday’s $2 million Preakness Stakes at Pimlico, will be forced to scratch from the race after spiking a 103-degree temperature after arriving from California on Tuesday, his connections announced Wednesday. That leaves Mystik Dan as the current morning line favourite in the Preakness. I don’t expect that the morning line will change in light of this development, but it could. Like I said upthread, I hope to be able to get a Form from the local race book on Friday. It should be updated to reflect Muth’s scratching. No doubt, I’ll have plenty of commentary once I get hold of a Form, and I won’t need to be discussing the racing scam in _The Sting_. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2024, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystik-dan-wins-150th-kentucky-derby-by-a-nose-in-the-closest-3-horse-photo-finish-since-1947/1001155/105 "2024-05-16T01:25:26Z")
> [@Railer13](#): > > If you think the Celtics will win by 14 points, you would bet them to win by 14-16 points. Just for shits and giggles, I put a $1 bet on this proposition. Celtics won 113-98. I just made a cool 8 dollars. BTW, the line on this game opened at Celtics -15.5. This morning it was down to Celtics -14.5. The bookies know their stuff. ---
**Author:** ![Spoons](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spoons/32/3141_2.png) [@Spoons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoons)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2024, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystik-dan-wins-150th-kentucky-derby-by-a-nose-in-the-closest-3-horse-photo-finish-since-1947/1001155/106 "2024-05-17T18:15:03Z")
The Preakness is tomorrow, and barring any late scratches, entries have been finalized. Entries and morning line odds have been posted. This link offers today’s news, as well as the odds of a Daily Racing Form selector, and brief commentary from him and another selector: > **[Preakness 2024: Mystik Dan finds himself in unexpected role as favorite](https://www.drf.com/news/preakness-2024-mystik-dan-finds-himself-unexpected-role-favorite)** > > Despite his narrow victory at 18-1 in the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago, Mystik Dan was likely going to play the underdog role again in Saturday's 149th Preakness Stakes at Pimlico. That all changed Wednesday morning when news broke that Muth, who had... Mystik Dan is the current favourite, but one of the links on that page contains speculation as to who else to watch (" Mystik Dan finds himself in unexpected role as favorite"). There was no agreement as to who might be the second and third favourites (though to be honest, in the Racing Form, there rarely is), just speculation. Still, I was able to pick out two others to watch: Catching Freedom and Tuscan Gold. Those three seem to be a good starting point. At any rate, I’ll be at the local race book this afternoon, and should be able to get a set of past performances from there. I will likely have more to say after I see all that. ---
**Author:** ![Bullitt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bullitt/32/5725_2.png) [@Bullitt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bullitt)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2024, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystik-dan-wins-150th-kentucky-derby-by-a-nose-in-the-closest-3-horse-photo-finish-since-1947/1001155/107 "2024-05-17T18:59:49Z")
The weather in Baltimore looks to be rainy tomorrow. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2024, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystik-dan-wins-150th-kentucky-derby-by-a-nose-in-the-closest-3-horse-photo-finish-since-1947/1001155/108 "2024-05-17T20:04:47Z")
> [@Spoons](#): > > I’ll be at the local race book this afternoon Question for you, @Spoons: you did a great job of explaining pari-mutuel betting at the racetrack. Is your local race book an off-track betting establishment, where patrons can bet on races like the Preakness? If so, does it (the establishment) have its own betting pool, and thus its own, possibly unique, odds? ---
**Author:** ![Spoons](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spoons/32/3141_2.png) [@Spoons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoons)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2024, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystik-dan-wins-150th-kentucky-derby-by-a-nose-in-the-closest-3-horse-photo-finish-since-1947/1001155/109 "2024-05-17T20:41:16Z")
My local race book is an off-track betting establishment, and is located at the local racetrack. The track runs two live meets per year, spring and fall, but the book operates year-round. Any time of the year, I can go to the race book and bet on whatever is running anywhere in North America; and if I hang around long enough at night, I can bet racing in places like Australia and Hong Kong. So yes, at the local book, I can bet the Preakness at Pimlico, just as I bet the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. Or any other races at any other track, as long as it’s running, or will later today. The book doesn’t have its own pool; no book would. Pools are continent-wide. So the odds I see are what everybody would get, no matter where they are; and payoffs are similar too. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2024, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystik-dan-wins-150th-kentucky-derby-by-a-nose-in-the-closest-3-horse-photo-finish-since-1947/1001155/110 "2024-05-17T20:44:04Z")
> [@Spoons](#): > > So the odds I see are what everybody would get How are these odds determined? ---
**Author:** ![Spoons](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spoons/32/3141_2.png) [@Spoons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoons)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2024, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystik-dan-wins-150th-kentucky-derby-by-a-nose-in-the-closest-3-horse-photo-finish-since-1947/1001155/111 "2024-05-17T20:50:35Z")
Same way they’re always determined: the amount of money bet on one horse against the amount of money bet on all other horses. Odds are really a ratio, if you want to look at things that way. It gets a little more complicated when we’re looking at Place, Show, Exactors, Triactors, Supers, etc., as I described above; but in the end, the computers do the heavy lifting, and calculate odds and payoffs. Okay, I’m off to the book. They’re running the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes at Pimlico in about an hour, and a friend has some good selections. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2024, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystik-dan-wins-150th-kentucky-derby-by-a-nose-in-the-closest-3-horse-photo-finish-since-1947/1001155/112 "2024-05-17T21:06:32Z")
> [@Spoons](#): > > the amount of money bet on one horse against the amount of money bet on all other horses. I guess that’s my question: the amount of money bet…where? If it’s not at your race parlor, and it’s not at the racetrack itself, then where? At all OTB establishments? ---
**Author:** ![Spoons](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spoons/32/3141_2.png) [@Spoons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoons)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2024, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystik-dan-wins-150th-kentucky-derby-by-a-nose-in-the-closest-3-horse-photo-finish-since-1947/1001155/113 "2024-05-18T02:36:00Z")
At all OTB establishments, yes. Doesn’t matter if you’re in New York or Los Angeles or Seattle or Chicago or Toronto or Calgary; it all goes into a common continent-wide pool. Aside: Buddy had good selections today. The exactor 5-7 on the Black Eyed Susan Stakes paid $10.70 on a dollar base exactor. We had a bit more on it, so we won more than that. ---
**Author:** ![Spoons](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spoons/32/3141_2.png) [@Spoons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoons)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2024, 9:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystik-dan-wins-150th-kentucky-derby-by-a-nose-in-the-closest-3-horse-photo-finish-since-1947/1001155/114 "2024-05-18T09:02:45Z")
Okay, I’ve had a look at the Preakness form. No selections in order, but commentary on morning line favourites. Note that wagering on the Preakness has opened, so live odds are available. Selections in order of post position: **3 CATCHING FREEDOM**. Very nice finishes in the 23Mar24 Louisiana Derby and the 01Jan24 Smarty Jones at FG. Proved that he could close both times at the distance, or close to it. With Flavian Prat up, definitely a contender. **5 MYSTIK DAN**. The Goldilocks of the race. That is, 1+1/8m too short in the Arkansas Derby, 1+1/4 almost too long in the Kentucky Derby, so will 1+3/16 be just right, as today? We’ll see. If Hernandez can keep him from going out to 4-5-6 path coming out of the far turn, and saves ground, very dangerous. **8 TUSCAN GOLD**. IMHO, outclassed in the Louisiana Derby (Stk, GII, 23Mar24 at Fair Grounds), but he’s a fighter, and came back to show them he could finish in the money. At the distance, he can challenge, especially with Gaffalione up. Suggest including in exotics. And the outlier I’ve been looking at: **9 IMAGINATION**. Can do, as they say. Did nicely in the 1+1/8m SA Derby (GI), and the 1+1/8 San Felipe (GII), both at Santa Anita, but now he’s in the east. Hmmm. Last raced 06Apr24 at SA, placed under Dettori at 1+1/8m. Dettori is riding today. May figure, consider in exotics. Early selections. Things may change between now and post time. Keep your eye on the tote, on the paper past performances, and good luck with your selections. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2024, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystik-dan-wins-150th-kentucky-derby-by-a-nose-in-the-closest-3-horse-photo-finish-since-1947/1001155/115 "2024-05-18T23:11:15Z")
Seize the Grey wins the Preakness, leading virtually wire to wire. Seize the Grey went off at 9-1 odds. ---
**Author:** ![Spoons](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spoons/32/3141_2.png) [@Spoons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoons)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2024, 4:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystik-dan-wins-150th-kentucky-derby-by-a-nose-in-the-closest-3-horse-photo-finish-since-1947/1001155/116 "2024-05-20T04:52:41Z")
Yeah. I couldn’t have seen that coming. I had 3-5-8 in an exactor box, and 3-5-8-9 in a trifecta box, and that 6 took me out of both. Oh well. That’s racing. At least my selections were sound. Now, on to the Belmont … ---
**Author:** ![Dead\_Cat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9fc29f/32.png) [@Dead\_Cat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dead_Cat)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2024, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystik-dan-wins-150th-kentucky-derby-by-a-nose-in-the-closest-3-horse-photo-finish-since-1947/1001155/117 "2024-05-20T14:52:47Z")
> [@Spoons](#): > > Last raced 06Apr24 at SA, placed under Dettori at 1+1/8m. Dettori is riding today. Amazing that Dettori is still riding at this level at the age of 53. One of the modern greats. ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2024, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystik-dan-wins-150th-kentucky-derby-by-a-nose-in-the-closest-3-horse-photo-finish-since-1947/1001155/118 "2024-05-20T18:50:12Z")
> [@Railer13](#): > > Seize the Grey wins the Preakness, leading virtually wire to wire. > > Seize the Grey went off at 9-1 odds. One good thing that comes out of that is, we don’t have to worry about, “Will a Triple Crown winner this year come with an asterisk as there was no 1 1/2 mile race?” ---
**Author:** ![Spoons](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spoons/32/3141_2.png) [@Spoons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoons)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2024, 6:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystik-dan-wins-150th-kentucky-derby-by-a-nose-in-the-closest-3-horse-photo-finish-since-1947/1001155/119 "2024-05-21T06:10:27Z")
Yeah. I was surprised to find that this year’s Belmont won’t be run at Belmont. For those who don’t know, this year’s Belmont will be run at Saratoga, at a distance of 1+1/4 miles. It’s due to construction at Belmont. > **[FAQs | Belmont Stakes | Belmont Stakes](https://www.belmontstakes.com/event-info/faq)** > > Learn the answers to frequently asked questions, direct from the Belmont Stakes Box Office. > [@](#): > > **Q: Will the 2024 Belmont Stakes be run at Saratoga?** > A: Yes, the running of the 2024 and 2025 Belmont Stakes will be held at Saratoga Race Course to allow for the uninterrupted construction of a new and re-imagined Belmont Park. The Belmont Stakes will be contested at 1 1/4 miles in 2024 rather than the traditional 1 1/2 miles due to the configuration of Saratoga’s main track. That will make things interesting. ---
**Author:** ![gkster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gkster/32/14107_2.png) [@gkster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gkster)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2024, 2:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystik-dan-wins-150th-kentucky-derby-by-a-nose-in-the-closest-3-horse-photo-finish-since-1947/1001155/120 "2024-05-22T02:46:19Z")
That’s a long time for a Belmont reno, and it’s due. I live 5 miles from Belmont, and have never been to a race there. But I went there with my daughter’s Girl Scout troop family trip, with brunch and a tour, and I had my first 2 Covid shots there in 2021. It was strange lining up by the betting windows for shots, and while waiting there was plenty of time to look around. It must have been a nice facility in the 60s but it’s showing its age. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystik-dan-wins-150th-kentucky-derby-by-a-nose-in-the-closest-3-horse-photo-finish-since-1947/1001155.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mystik-dan-wins-150th-kentucky-derby-by-a-nose-in-the-closest-3-horse-photo-finish-since-1947/1001155.md?page=7)