Mystik Dan wins 150th Kentucky Derby by a nose in the closest 3-horse photo finish since 1947

The Game Room
41

My educated guess (I’ve been following racing for decades) is that no, Hernandez did not and will not receive an invitation to the White House. It hasn’t happened before; there is no precedent for it. The only time I can think of that a jockey might possibly receive such an invitation is when he is retiring from a long and distinguished, award-winning, career; but even that would be unlikely.

Besides, there are other major stakes on the racing calendar (Preakness, Belmont, Breeder’s Cup weekend, etc.), and if every winning jockey in a major stakes received an invitation to the White House, the Oval Office would need a revolving door to accommodate them all.

42

I was wondering if any thoroughbred jockeys have ever been invited to the White House. A search now yields many hits that this was a hoax, and I couldn’t get deep enough into the results to see if there ever has been.

43

Now, the winning athletes, they usually do get invited. They just don’t bring their riders with them.

44

I got curious, so I looked up two of the winningest jockeys in racing history, Bill Shoemaker and Sandy Hawley. While each received many of racing’s awards over long careers, and each was entered in various Halls of Fame (racing has a few), nothing in their Wikipedia biographies indicated that they were ever invited to the White House. If any jockey “qualified” for a White House invitation, it would be one or both of those two.

Hawley did receive the Order of Canada (he was Canadian and raced in both Canada and the US), and he would have had to go to Rideau Hall in Ottawa to receive it. But all recipients of the Order of Canada that year would do the same, usually all on the same day, so it’s not like he was singled out. Nor is Rideau Hall the equivalent of the White House. It’s no slouch by any means, but no governing happens there, unlike in the Oval Office.

45

Thanks for looking. Yeah if anyone would’ve been invited, it would’ve been among those two. For kicks, I quickly searched if Steve Cauthen or Ron Turcotte was, and… no.

46

Surprising: I thought interest in horse racing was going down every year.

47

Interesting. According to the article,

Viewership peaked at 20.1 million from 7 to 7:15 p.m. EDT on Saturday

Post time was scheduled for 6:57, although IIRC the race started a couple of minutes late. So perhaps the viewership peaked after the race was run, when everybody knew the outcome and also knew it was an extremely close race.

Had the race been an 8-length blowout, would not as many viewers turned over to NBC to watch the replays and post-race hoopla?

48

There was no audio on in the sports bar we were at, so I couldn’t hear her, but it certainly looked to me like Martha had had a few. I leaned over and asked my wife “Any bets on how many mint juleps Martha’s had?”

49

Generally speaking, it has been. That’s why so many tracks have become “racinos,” with slot machines and sometimes table games. They help supplement the track’s income so it doesn’t have to rely solely on the percentage off the top of racing wagers. I doubt very much if my local track/race book could survive without the income provided by slot machines.

Beyond that though, racing is difficult. You have to learn it if you’re going to make sensible selections. All those numbers, abbreviations, superscripts, etc., that you see in the Racing Form mean something; and the Racing Form has managed to pack a huge amount of information in a very small space. I can tell you the whole story of a horse’s performance in a given past race, just by deciphering what is in the Form. Plus the horse’s win/loss record; sire, dam, damsire; breeder; owner; trainer; and even what the jockey will be wearing, among yet more information.

It sounds intimidating, and to a degree, it is. I’ve learned to do it, because I find handicapping horses to be a pleasant hobby; and as I said, I’ve been doing it for decades. Much like some folks enjoy knitting or model trains as hobbies, and have for years. But for many people, learning how to decipher the Form in order to play the races is just too much trouble. It’s far easier to spend their gambling dollars on simply playing a slot machine or buying a lottery ticket.

Racing was quite popular when it was the only game in town (think of the movie Seabiscuit), but as jurisdictions legalized other forms of gambling, racing’s popularity waned. And that’s interest in racing has been decreasing: because it’s too difficult, and other forms of gambling are easier.

50

No snark but do you think that you do significantly better than a random yahoo? Do you make a profit? (Not that you have to make a profit on an enjoyable pastime)

51

I’ve been watching the TC races on TV every year since 1973. I was 11 at the time, and Secretariat’s TC run was a great intro to me. But I’ve only gone once to the track, about 15 years later, with a friend who knew how to read the Form. He explained it to me, and it was a fun day. Knowing how to read the Form is key.

52

No problem; you ask a good question.

Yes, I think I do. However, let’s put things in perspective. Just as a great baseball hitter gets a hit about one-third of the time, a great handicapper is right in his or her selections about one-third of the time. The catch is that the baseball hitter either gets a base hit or he doesn’t. But there is no either/or in racing. There is such a thing as “close to.”

What do I mean? Well, I might select three horses out of a seven-horse field: A, B, and C. My analysis of the Form indicates that C will finish first, A will finish second, and B will finish third. I would note my selections in my Form as C-A-B. (I may not necessarily play them that way; more on that later.) Now, all three finish as the top three, but in this order: A-B-C. I’ve come close, but I didn’t get the correct order.

Let’s introduce another of those seven horses, D. I don’t like D. He’s not a total washout; I just think he’s outclassed today, or running at a distance he never does well at, or other factors. A race with different conditions, and he’d be fine. But in this race? No. Then guess what? D surprises everybody, runs a great race, and the order of finish ends up being A-D-B-C. Did I lose? Probably. But I can take consolation in knowing that my selections were sound, as we say. After all, my three selections were in the top four, and none of them finished last.

Getting back to our “one-third” of the time, I can use the Form to select the winner about one-third of the time. I can manage two of the top three about two-thirds of the time. I may be helped further by late changes, or by watching the paddock and/or post parade, but the main basis for my selections is what I can learn from the Form.

Does all this mean that your “random yahoo” is left not knowing how or what to select? Not at all. Every Form, every program, will have morning line selections, or mutuel selections, for each race. Without getting into the reasons why they’re called what they’re called, let’s just say that somebody has done the hard work for Random Yahoo. So if Yahoo doesn’t know what to do, well, there’s a starting point.

Beyond that, many tracks have between one and five or six professional selectors, whose selections will be displayed on the TV monitors alongside the tote. At some tracks, these selectors host a mini TV show, where they explain their selections; and sometimes, the selectors’ commentary is printed in the Form or program. A few newspapers still offer selections too. And yes, I can get selections through an app on my phone. Point is, that Yahoo is not necessarily totally lost. Just by playing others’ selections, Yahoo can have a lot of fun at the track.

Phew. A little break for now, but in my next post, I’ll address your question about profit.

53

Well, I’m extremely happy that I didn’t bother placing a bet! I would have picked Just a Touch (mostly because it shares a title with an R.E.M. song that I really like, but also because the odds weren’t too crazy). It finished dead last.

54

Okay, next question: “Do you make a profit?”

It sounds simple, requiring only a Yes or No response. But it is much more complex.

First, understand that there are a number of bet types. The best known are the straight bets: Win (1st only), Place (1st or 2nd), Show (1st, 2nd, or 3rd).

Next come the exotic bets: the Exacta/Exactor (1st and 2nd, in exact order), the Trifecta/Triactor (1st, 2nd, and 3rd, in exact order), and the Superfecta (1st through 4th, in exact order). Some tracks are now offering a Pentafecta (you can figure what this one is). Some tracks still offer a Quinella (1st and 2nd, in any order).

Then there are the parlay bets. These are where you can bet the winners of two to six selected races.

With the exotics, it is possible to use boxes and wheels to combine a number of bets on one ticket, and parlays can use wheels. These are complicated and difficult to explain here, but to keep things short, let’s just say that the more horses you include in your box or wheel, the more the total bet will cost. For example, a $2 exactor box on three horses will cost $12; a $2 four horse exactor will cost $24, a $2 part-wheel with one horse on top and three on the bottom will cost $6, and so on. The total cost of an exotic bet using a box or a wheel is what we call the outlay.

See how difficult it is to answer the question, “Do you make a profit?” It is entirely possible to win your exotic or parlay bet, and “win” less than you paid for the total bet. I’ve had it happen where I’ve won an exactor to the tune of $4.60, while my outlay was $6. I’m down $1.40, in spite of winning. I don’t like it when that happens, but that’s the nature of the damn parimutuel betting system. On the other hand, it is entirely possible to win big on exotics. I’ve done it, as I mentioned upthread. Hooray for the parimutuel betting system!

Is it possible to consistently make a profit? Sure. As I’ve advised many first-timers, “Bet the favourite to show.” And on an eight-race card, a $2 show bet on the favourite in every race will return $3 to $5, or maybe a couple of bucks more in profit at the end of the day. A friend does this actually; we joke about how he can use his winnings to get a coffee at Tim Horton’s. But that’s the way he likes to play.

Another friend loves to box and wheel exotics sixteen ways to Sunday. He doesn’t always win, in fact he rarely does, but when he does, he wins a good amount. I was there when his wheeled trifecta won and paid him $350, and when another wheeled tri paid $175. But it’s not all rainbows and unicorns for him, and I’ve heard him shout at the race book’s TV when he had a part-wheeled tri, “Dammit, you nag, I needed you to finish second, not first!”

Do I myself make a profit on a day at the track? Not often, but I sometimes do. And over time, over many days, it all works out. I’m at the race book once or twice a week, and I’ve been playing the same $50 since February. Mostly exactors. I’ve rolled that up to about $80, and dropped it to $7, and made it back to $35 or so before dropping to $13, then rising to $50, and so on. For the most part, I break even over time, maybe a little less than evens, but it’s all over time, over multiple days. And should the time come when I need to introduce another $50 bill, I will. Hey, if I can be entertained once or twice a week from February to May or June for $50, well, that’s pretty inexpensive entertainment, profit or not. Like I said, it’s my hobby.

Hope this answers your question.

55

It did indeed. Thank you very much.

56

Looks like Mystik Dan will run in the Preakness Stakes, the second race in the Triple Crown, a week from Saturday, on May 18:

It was unknown as to whether he’d run in the Preakness, but on Saturday the 11th, his trainer confirmed he would run in that race.

Right now, I’m not so sure about his chances. Mystik Dan did fine in the Arkansas Derby in late March, finishing 3rd, but that race was at 1+1/8 miles. He closed nicely, and my assessment was that he needed another furlong to win. He got that in the Kentucky Derby, and did indeed win.

But. The Preakness is 1+3/16 miles. Longer than 1+1/8 miles; shorter than 1+1/4 miles. Hmmm.

It’s too early to speculate. I’d like to see a final list of official entries, with morning line odds, before I even begin. That should be available on Thursday at the latest, and would still be subject to scratches between then and Saturday.

I guess we’ll see how things shape up over the course of the week.

57

I’m always fascinated by someone with a deep understanding of something obscure that I know absolutely nothing about, like horse racing. Well, I shouldn’t say “absolutely nothing” – I’m bright enough to know that horse racing involves horses, and that they race! But beyond that my knowledge fades into insignificance.

You share the same interests as Bertie Wooster and the cast of characters in the PG Wodehouse stories, but you’re apparently much better at it, because they’re always placing losing bets, and characters like Bingo Little are consequently always in trouble with their wives. So is Basil Fawlty of Fawlty Towers, for that matter:

Major Gowen : Going to have a flutter, Fawlty?

Basil Fawlty : No. No, no, no, no, no.

Sybil Fawlty : No, Basil doesn’t bet anymore. Do you, dear?

Basil Fawlty : No, I don’t, dear, no. No, that particular avenue of pleasure has been closed off.

Sybil Fawlty : And we don’t want it opened up again, do we Basil?

Basil Fawlty : No, you don’t, dear.

:smiley:

58

Huh, I would have thought it a foregone conclusion that the winner of one Triple Crown race would of course compete in the others. Even if he’s not a favorite to win due to the different distance, it’s certainly reasonable to suppose that he might, and he’s also likely to place well even if he doesn’t win.

59

Uncommon but it happens. The last time was in 2022.

60

Interesting. According to the article, the Preakness was run before the Derby for 13 years, and twice was run on the same day. And for a time, the races were less than a week apart.

Since the current calendar was adopted in 1932, there have been 11 Derby winners who have not raced in the Preakness, including 2019, 2021, and 2022.