The problem is that you are vastly underestimating North Korea’s strength. You seem to assume that such an invasion would come down to the North getting off one good artillery salvo at Seoul before it goes belly up and surrenders to the South/US. This leaves out all of their other military capabilities, for example:
(1) Missile technology, which has been demonstrated to be capable of reaching Japan. Faced with a Western invasion, there is absolutely no reason for the North to spare Tokyo, so you can write that city off as well.
(2) Air force. Mostly outdated, but will still be able to hit a lot of targets further south than Seoul.
(3) Submarines, of which the North has more than most countries. While you’re trying to occupy the North, they’re picking off your military and civilian vessels.
(4) The fact that the North has over 1,000,000 soldiers. That’s quite a few armed people that you’re going to have to take on and defeat.
And then they may also have nukes, chemical or biological weapons, and whatnot. And don’t forget that the last time you tried to occupy the North, it sucked the PRC into the war, as well. That same PRC is now fully nuclear and much more powerful than the last time you faced it… All in all, I don’t see an invasion as feasible. I’m sure a lot of Westerners would like to see one happen, but the potential bloodshed is simply too great to make it realistic.
Now I have to clarify my position here, early I did mention that the weak response by South Korea to this reckless act of aggression (Or reprisal, and the point stands, even if that is the case the North is clearly out of line here) was the correct thing to do. Just because it looks good (forced regime change) it does not mean that we will get what we want. Looking at history I do think that China will intervene on the side of North Korea. Whereas we like it or not, for the sake of world peace war can only be considered if the North escalates the aggression.
I now that preemptive action is attractive, but even so, history has shown that preemptive action is the one that gets condemned.
Sad or risky as it may be, South Korea will have to roll with the punches for awhile, in the past similarly the USA had to tolerate the killing of American sailors at the hands of Nazi Germany without declaring war (Even after Pearl harbor war was declared only to Japan but Hitler decided to declare war on the US just because they supported the Japanese), most of the American people did not want to fight another war in Europe. What I see the North Korean leadership doing is that it is forgetting that history shows that dismissing treaties and being an aggressor is not a recipe for success.
Oh I’m sorry Seoul is planted right near the Korean border, and as I found out, so is Pyongyang which has 2 million inhabitants, I know about the population distribution, I still stand by my previous statement.
Based on what? This sounds exactly like the people who were telling us before the Iraq war that the deaths would be minimal and the war would pay for itself. You’ll excuse me if I don’t believe that the war would only result in a “few thousand” deaths and minimal economic damage.
Too much discursive drivel here about preripheral issues when it’s what’s happening right now relating to the US that’s of import. Though, this is a predominantly America-centric discussion forum, so… everything seems in order here. :rolleyes:
The US need to pull back or at least ‘postpone’ the war games given the tension in the region at the minute. The last thing we want (‘we’ non war mongering, military-industrial complex proponent types, that is) is to give the hermits more quasi justification to escalate the situation.
Saber rattling for the sake of brovado could hardly be more inopportune right now. The South missed their chance to kick the saop box from under the midget the other day - their has already been much public criticism to this effect and indeed political fallout in fact. The the ‘World Police’ and their marionette doll need to execise their world famous propensity for moderation(lol!) and hold off on beating their neanderthal chests in the Dear Hobbit’s face for now.
Pressuring China to throw the proletariat state over their knee will be far more effective a means of punishing the North at this point in time - given China’s greater involvement and reliance on the world economy nowadays. No need to jump the gun to Defcon 1… just yet. NB: Of course, this verbosity is all contingent upon the assumption the US do not want confilct with the Pinkos. And given the US’ historically twitchy trigger finger when dealing with ‘Red threats’, the parlous state of the Yankee economy atm and the pay-off - both fiduciary and geo-political - that could (and will) be strongly argued a war in the region would yield, these armipotent ass-hats butting there respect hollow noggins here may be a fait accompli.
NK would be dissected in a week in a ground war. NK’s air force is untrained and would not be able to supply any air support. They would lose all their artillery, tanks, aircraft and supporting infrastructure. They simply don’t have the technology to wage war and they don’t have the ability to supply soldiers on the move. Saddam Hussein had the 3rd largest standing army in the world and was pushed out of Kuwait as fast as they could retreat. It was a turkey shoot.
Ohno, here we go again. We could walk through another country. our record has been pretty bad. we can not beat countries that have no navy or airforce.We have been bombing at will . Now we are talking about a country that is militaristic and has an army and an airforce. They have been preparing for war the last few decades. That is the rallying cry that holds them together.
They would lose their capacity to wage war quickly. After that it’s just a matter of bombing the rest of the country back to the 21st century using food and variety of magazines showing what normal looks like.
You know, you’re absolutely right! I must have forgotten how thoroughly the invincible US has been beating its enemies! Why, just recently, it launched a major invasion of a minor blip-on-a-map country. Now granted, the country, unlike North Korea, had no navy, or air force, or ground cover, for that matter… And its “army” consisted mostly of illiterate guys in street clothing with obsolete weapons…
But the point is that the US totally enjoyed a decisive victory there! Wait, what’s that? A decade later, it’s still trying to pacify Afghanistan and losing soldiers each and every day to a pointless quagmire? Oh.
You know what, all your macho talk notwithstanding, you really have a piss-poor record of being able to subjugate other nations. Aside from Panama, you’ve gotten your ass handed to you by pretty much everyone you have tried to invade in the last half century. Including the North Koreans. If you care for attempt number two, I’m sure they will be more than happy to oblige.
Actually, that’s just the kind of conflict we’re actually good at: squaring off mano a mano against a large conventional military force, which North Korea is. And a sadly outdated one, at that. Provided China doesn’t get involved in this theoretical conflict, I think the US/S Korean forces would defeat North Korea pretty handily.
Of course…I don’t want this to happen. No more wars!
Oh, yes, the North Korean submarines. There’s one on display in Seoul just across the street from the Defense Ministry. By the way, care to guess where North Korea’s getting its food from? I wouldn’t think that pipeline would continue if North Korea attacks its benefactor (for the extremely clueless on this issue, that benefactor is South Korea).
Monty, how are things there right now? The Western media is reporting a pretty high amount of unrest/protests amongst the military veterans of the South Korean armed forces…is this happening all over or in isolated urban pockets?
What’s the general mood of the populace over there right now?
Well, I went up to Seoul Friday night and spent the day there Saturday, about half the day on the main miltary base, US Army Garrison Yongsan (aka USAGY) and the other half of the day at Yongsan Station and the Itaeweon shopping district. I saw a lot of riot police but no protestors. I guess the protests were either at the time I was on base or they were held somewhere other than the usual venues (Seoul Station, Korea War Memorial, Itaeweon-ro where it bisects USAGY). There was, though, an incredible number of people at both Seoul and Yongsan Stations getting tickets.
You can check the major South Korean news sites in English at the following links. Please ensure your pop-up blocker is enabled.
[ul][li]The Korea Times[/li][li]The Korea Herald[/li][li]Korea JoonAng Daily[/li][li]The Chosunilbo[/ul][/li]
Understandably, many South Koreans are a bit miffed. People I know personally are wondering why their government has spent so much in humanitarian aid over the years just to have the beneficiary kill people here.
As for foreigners here, the popular online community for foreign English teachers, the posts range from the pragmatic (“What are your plans if all out war ensues?”) to the blase (“Seen it happen before, the North’s at it again, they must need some food/money/oil/respect!”), from the informed (“There is more to the situation on the Korean peninsula than just the two Korean governments being at odds as there are powerful allies for each government”) to the ignorant (“The US is at fault!”) to the criminal (no quote here: I’ll just mention that the South’s national security law is quite strict and I’m not taking any chances, not even with quoting someone to show how stupid that person is for making the criminal post).
If you’re up to it, you can check for 연평도 포탄 (Yeonpyeong Island Shelling) on one of the major South Korean online portals, Daum. I never recommend the most popular one, Naver (Did you notice there’s no link there?) because it constantly crashes computers.
I only have four classes tomorrow, so I’ll update this post after the morning staff meeting and my classes are finished.
Edited to add: You can also check the US military’s overseas newspaper, Stars & Stripes by loading that link and then clicking on Korea.
Afghanistan has a democratically elected government for the first time in memory. If you see it as a quagmire to liberate a people from a brutal regime that attacks school girls because they are not worthy of an education then there is something wrong with you. It is a mutual interest to fight those responsible.
It’s not macho talk, it’s reality. If NK attacks SK it will be a short war. The technological difference is vast as is the infrastructure to support a war. NK is already starving and does not have the logistical capacity to feed a moving army. Their first salvo will be their last.
NK is a heinous and brutal regime and it’s citizens are prisoners in their own country. While there is no benefit for SK to invade NK they are more than capable of defending themselves from a failed dictatorship.
