Again, food aid to North Korea has already, before this incident, shrunk to almost nothing, excluding that from China, which the Chinese probably want to maintain for their own reasons which have nothing to do with North Korea’s political standing.
NK is already as isolated as they can be. Their isolation may have impelled the attack on Cheonan. They have no way to assert their importance except militarily, and there are no other levers of influence to use upon them.
It’s always amusing when people who dislike the US or US policy are utterly incapable of seeing that there might be even worse state actors out there. I doubt even Ahmadinejad would want to be compared to Kim Jong Il:
And these torpedo remains that had North Korean-style lettering just happened to be found on the seabed floor conveniently near the sunken remains of the Cheonan? A multi-national investigation team (including neutral Sweden) collaborated with South Korea on their recently released report. Another UN investigation will follow up on that report.
The key to retaliation is China’s support. The only reason NK exists at all is that China wants a communist ally in the strategic Korean peninsula.
Therefore, to get to NK, the key is to appease China.
Wouldn’t China like a few more million semi-slave laborers and probably a couple of decent porrts for export across the Pacific? We ought to figure a way to encourage China to invade the North – so long as they don’t get too cocky and go too far south.
Another thought is to airdrop obout 10 million little shortwave radios and mini-tvs into the north, and set up some big propaganda stations in the south with antennas pointing north. Maybe they already have stations like that. I dunno how effective it would be, but it’s dirt cheap compared to war.
And get a message in: get out of North Korea and we will feed you decently and put you in a decent home with working heat and electricity.
Yeah, I know… too socialist. I know the south is afraid of the costs of a mass exodus, but if the north depopulates itself that would solve a whole lot of problems.
I think the Chinese would rather not touch NK with a ten-foot chopstick. Too many headaches to take on.
Nobody really knows why China stands behind NK, but that’s pretty much the only thing protecting them.
Inertia, sense of historic obligation, difficulty in admitting a mistake.
Basically…yeah. I don’t see that there are many other viable options open to us at this point. A war with North Korea would be disastrous not just to South Korea (and North Korea) but to the whole region. And that’s if nuke AREN’T used. If they are then it goes south of disastrous. But cutting off aid to the North means letting potentially millions of helpless citizens in the North die horrible deaths. This isn’t exaggeration, since it’s already happened a couple of times. And it might destabilize the entire region, including that big country to the north. It’s great to talk tough, but no one wants to be the ones responsible for the possible (I’d say probable) deaths of literally millions of men, women and children. Do YOU want to be responsible for something like that?
No idea little hobbit. The only way I can see smacks heavily of hindsight, which was to push for a resolution of this mess in the 50’s, when we still had troops in the field and the question was still up in the air (wrt the eventual massive armaments thing…I don’t believe nukes were a given and I think more could have been done to stop that, but again it’s mainly hindsight).
At this point we are essentially hostage not just to massive destruction launched from the North, but the mad assholes there are actually using their own citizens as hostages. If the North suddenly comes apart, even leaving aside if it happens during a war, millions will literally die before we can really even get organized to help. It will make the reunification of East and West Germany look like a picnic.
Pretty much. And hope that when the situation finally does go TU that who ever comes out on top is smart enough and fast enough to hold things together long enough for the rest of the world to come in there and prevent a mass die off. Maybe I’m being overly pessimistic, but I think it’s going to be more ugly than anyone realizes when Kimmy and clowns finally shuffle off into the long good night. And that leaves aside nukes and ridiculous amounts of weapons and ammo and fanatical assholes willing to kill any number of their own frigging citizens (let alone other countries citizens) to maintain their own power and privilege.
-XT
What conceivable path for North Korea isn’t a disaster?
I think you’re right.
None that aren’t low probability outcomes, but that’s JMHO. Basically, I suppose that by not rocking the boat (and hoping Kimmy doesn’t fly off the handle and start a war on his own), that he’ll eventually die off (it’s bound to happen sooner or later…probably sooner than later, based on his life style), and that whoever takes over at that point won’t enjoy the same levels of devotion and fear that he has…and will, perhaps be smart enough to at least do a major re-approachment with China, at least.
It’s one of those damned if you do, damned if you don’t thingies. Provoking a war would be bad (massive exaggeration of course). Cutting off aid would be bad (same level of massive exaggeration). Doing ‘nothing’ (i.e. sanctions, international censure, and walking the tight rope of spanking the NK’s without provoking them) MIGHT be bad (especially if it provokes them anyway), and it might be simply putting of the inevitable. But it seems to me to be the best of a bad bargain, and the only one with, perhaps, a slim possibility of an outcome that isn’t a total disaster with millions dead.
-XT
From my East-Asian IR class, here’s a quick list:
•China doesn’t want instability on its borders — the ongoing refugee crisis would be drastically worsened in a regime collapse, and without a cooperative regime in Pyongyang, the refugees could not be gotten rid of.
•Instability also would be bad for China’s economy.
•China is required by treaty to defend North Korea, even if they start a war. Granted, China would never actually do so, but inaction would be very embarrassing.
•A buffer state between China and a close American ally is definitely a good thing.
Basically, there is no circumstance in which a war—or even a peaceful regime collapse—would be acceptable to China. Hence, they try to keep the Pyongyang regime alive, and quietly push it to be less aggressive.
On the other hand, China is not all that fond of Pyongyang, in a lot of important ways — they don’t like the regional destabilization, they don’t like the nukes (which are as threatening to China as anyone else, really), they don’t like the refugees… it’s a bad situation all round.
Incidentally, much as we like to be cynical about the DPRK on the SDMB, I personally kind of doubt that North Korea will go out violently. Other extremist communist regimes have almost always liberalized first, including China and the USSR, and Pyongyang will probably see the sense of that in the long-run. The flow of foreign information into North Korea has been steadily increasing, and even the elites aren’t doing very well under the current system. However, these little upsets don’t really work to my prediction…
Sorry, Magiver. I missed that. Why the question marks? You’re aware the dude that got promoted is a North Korean general, aren’t you?
According to the BBC, South Korea has made its next move. For those of you too lazy to read the article (and hey, I’m with you guys usually), South Korea will:
•stop all trade with North Korea.
•ban North Korean ships from South Korean waters
•engage in further military exercises
•reaffirm that its ships will defend themselves (duh)
•emphatically not take military action
This is actually more than I would have expected, but of course this affair is plainly an enormous deal in the South. Certainly it spells the end of the Sunshine Policy, and that in turn could have long-term significance. This is bad news for the North.
Maybe that torpedo wasn’t from Pyong Yang at all.
Maybe it was from another country intent on destabilizing the region even more and a good excuse for Japanese Prez to overturn his descision to allow the base on Okinawa.
Bit like the Saudi’s secretly paying Al Qaeda in Iraq.
Whose torpedo was it really?
aw come on!!
Be serious:D
and make Steven Spielberg the director:D
While I wouldn’t put it past Japan, the ability for a modern nation to keep something like that secret is essentially zero. More importantly, between a stable, modern nation, and a nation run by a crazy with an inferiority complex, the odds that the crazy man is to blame runs sufficiently high that it’s pretty safe to discount any other options.
In the Middle East, is the most likely suspect of wrong-doing always being framed? Your irrational suspicion and paranoia of the US is showing. The torpedo is just one piece of evidence, which together with the other circumstantial evidence, clearly shows that North Korea is far more likely the culprit than any other state actor. Instead of making baseless conspiracy theories, why don’t you actually try to refute the evidence with some facts? (which I hear are important when debating Americans)
The Sunshine Policy has essentially been over since a South Korean woman tourist was shot in North Korea a while back.
Very true. Also, the current party in power isn’t one that’s inclined to show NK any sort of sunshine.
South Koreans love conspiracy theories involving the US, but no one seems to be spinning any concerning this particular incident, as far as I’m aware. Most of us are just somewhat baffled that NK was able to hit us with a torpedo without being detected or even discovered until now.