# NASA study: Only 10 years to climate-change "tipping point" **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 30, 2007, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nasa-study-only-10-years-to-climate-change-tipping-point/406082 "2007-05-30T16:20:09Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![kanicbird](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/5f8ce5/32.png) [@kanicbird](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kanicbird)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2007, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nasa-study-only-10-years-to-climate-change-tipping-point/406082/41 "2007-05-31T17:39:31Z")
[QUOTE=Mosier] That’s a pretty goofy stance to take. Are you denying reality, just to make sure everyone knows just how much you dislike a politician? [/QUOTE] No quite the opposite OMHO, the more political a issue gets the more I tend to distrust the message. At this point I am OK with just letting things be as they are, If things happen we’ll deal with the consequences then, if it gets too bad we better to learn to live on mars really fast. Either way we win. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2007, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nasa-study-only-10-years-to-climate-change-tipping-point/406082/42 "2007-05-31T17:43:38Z")
[QUOTE=mswas] I can’t wait until New York City has boat taxis. I want to get a Gibbs Aquada. 😉 [/QUOTE] [This?](http://www.gibbstech.co.uk/aquada.php) The [Amphicar](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amphicar) back in the '60s was a notorious failure on the market . . . but market conditions may be changing . . . ---
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2007, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nasa-study-only-10-years-to-climate-change-tipping-point/406082/43 "2007-05-31T17:47:50Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] Meanwhile, the **head** of NASA, Michael Griffin, [says he’s not sure global warming is a problem.](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/05/31/AR2007053101173.html) [/QUOTE] He’s a Bush appointee, so it’s to be expected that he doesn’t believe in it. ---
**Author:** ![jjimm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ba8739/32.png) [@jjimm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jjimm)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2007, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nasa-study-only-10-years-to-climate-change-tipping-point/406082/44 "2007-05-31T21:02:08Z")
[QUOTE=kanicbird] No quite the opposite OMHO, the more political a issue gets the more I tend to distrust the message. [/QUOTE] Ironically, the politicisation of the issue comes largely from the US right, which, if I’m not mistaken, is “your side”. I.e. the moment a largely accepted scientific theory is opposed by your side, you distrust it. :dubious: ETA: except the most important part of the US right has finally [bought into it](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6709439.stm). ---
**Author:** ![Chief\_Pedant](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a6a055/32.png) [@Chief\_Pedant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chief_Pedant)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2007, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nasa-study-only-10-years-to-climate-change-tipping-point/406082/45 "2007-05-31T21:50:40Z")
**by CP** : \* (Now when the wealthy and powerful actually start shorting beachfront property, I’ll really think they are taking it seriously.)\* [QUOTE=BrainGlutton] Paging Lex Luthor . . . [/QUOTE] Apologies for my retardation on this but can someone help me out here? I am whooshed worse than Mr. Bush reading an IPCC report. ---
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2007, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nasa-study-only-10-years-to-climate-change-tipping-point/406082/46 "2007-05-31T22:08:20Z")
[QUOTE=Chief Pedant] **by CP** : \* (Now when the wealthy and powerful actually start shorting beachfront property, I’ll really think they are taking it seriously.)\* Apologies for my retardation on this but can someone help me out here? I am whooshed worse than Mr. Bush reading an IPCC report. [/QUOTE] In _Superman_ (the first one starring Christopher Reeve) Luthor buys a bunch of inland real estate with plans to make it beachfront by nuking the San Andreas fault, thus causing most of California to fall into the ocean. ---
**Author:** ![flight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/bbce88/32.png) [@flight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flight)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2007, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nasa-study-only-10-years-to-climate-change-tipping-point/406082/47 "2007-05-31T22:46:12Z")
[QUOTE=erie774] I love NASA but I have real problems with them making predictions. Their track record is pretty crappy: probes crash or lose communication, rockets can’t be launched on a reliable schedule, shuttles explode, the space station is falling apart, a space telescope is sent into orbit with a bad main mirror, etc. Sometimes they get things right but overall they suck. They are at the mercy of government funding and now are looking to the private sector to help them get back to the moon to stay. If NASA predicted that the sun would come up tomorrow, I’d wait for confirmation from the Psychic Friends Network. [/QUOTE] This is just a stupid statement. Their track record is actually quite amazingly good. They have had some significant accidents, what with them being on the cutting edge of science and technology, but they are far below the expected rate of problems for the work they do. Take the shuttle for example. It has the smallest loss rate of any space vehicle I am aware of and the rate of serious accidents has been much smaller than what was initially predicted (back when they thought they wouldn’t be used nearly so long as they have). Your statement would be like saying that NASCAR drivers have a much higher rate of accidents than Volvo drivers, therefore they must be lousy behind the wheel. ---
**Author:** ![Chief\_Pedant](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a6a055/32.png) [@Chief\_Pedant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chief_Pedant)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2007, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nasa-study-only-10-years-to-climate-change-tipping-point/406082/48 "2007-05-31T22:49:34Z")
[QUOTE=Tuckerfan] In _Superman_ (the first one starring Christopher Reeve) Luthor buys a bunch of inland real estate with plans to make it beachfront by nuking the San Andreas fault, thus causing most of California to fall into the ocean. [/QUOTE] Thanks. I think I get it but it’s still a bit oblique for me. I need to get out to the movies more. ---
**Author:** ![kanicbird](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/5f8ce5/32.png) [@kanicbird](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kanicbird)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2007, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nasa-study-only-10-years-to-climate-change-tipping-point/406082/49 "2007-05-31T23:01:00Z")
[QUOTE=jjimm] Ironically, the politicisation of the issue comes largely from the US right, which, if I’m not mistaken, is “your side”. I.e. the moment a largely accepted scientific theory is opposed by your side, you distrust it. [/QUOTE] I do feel the left has had a worse history of misusing ‘science’ for political advancement then the right. > [@](#): > > ETA: except the most important part of the US right has finally bought into it. the BBC indeed. If you are trying to prove someone you suspect is on the right of the political spectrum I suggest trying to find a cite that is not considered liberally biased by people on the right. Sorry the credibility of this issue is gone, I refuse to believe a bunch of fat rich men flying around in private aircraft (or any aircraft) telling us the sky is falling, um make that heating up and we have to cut down on CO2 emissions, who use more energy in their homes in a month then we, the little people, use in a year. There is too much money and power in this ‘science’. Scientists (and IIRC climatologists) who don’t worship at the alter of global warming are ostracized, information on the global heating on mars, and several other planets and moons are ignored. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2007, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nasa-study-only-10-years-to-climate-change-tipping-point/406082/50 "2007-05-31T23:13:44Z")
[QUOTE=kanicbird] I do feel the left has had a worse history of misusing ‘science’ for political advancement then the right. [/quote] I’ll probably regret asking this, but when has it **ever?** [QUOTE=kanicbird] the BBC indeed. If you are trying to prove someone you suspect is on the right of the political spectrum I suggest trying to find a cite that is not considered liberally biased by people on the right. [/quote] The linked story says only that the Bush Admin (that’s what **jjimm** means by “the most important part of the US right”) is calling an international summit on greenhouse gas emissions. What, you think BBC made that up? [QUOTE=kanicbird] Sorry the credibility of this issue is gone, I refuse to believe a bunch of fat rich men flying around in private aircraft (or any aircraft) telling us the sky is falling, um make that heating up and we have to cut down on CO2 emissions, who use more energy in their homes in a month then we, the little people, use in a year. [/quote] Hypocrisy does not make them wrong. [QUOTE=kanicbird] There is too much money and power in this ‘science’. [/quote] 😕 If I were climatologist greedy for money, I would do GW-denial for the oil companies. ---
**Author:** ![jjimm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ba8739/32.png) [@jjimm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jjimm)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2007, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nasa-study-only-10-years-to-climate-change-tipping-point/406082/51 "2007-05-31T23:14:21Z")
[QUOTE=kanicbird] I do feel the left has had a worse history of misusing ‘science’ for political advancement then the right. [/quote] I’m talking about _this particular issue_. > [@](#): > > the BBC indeed. If you are trying to prove someone you suspect is on the right of the political spectrum I suggest trying to find a cite that is not considered liberally biased by people on the right. You didn’t even read the damn link did you? You went “BBC=leftist” and ignored it. Old chap, the Beeb was merely the first link I found Google. Or are you disputing the facts of the article? Have you paid any attention to any news sources in the last 24 hours? (Or perhaps more accurately, are the right-wing blogs not puking this one up, since it’s contrary to their chosen worldview.) To help you out, there was a certain speech given by a certain Pres. Bush from the US of A. Nothing to do with bias, old chap. The same story’s at [the White House website](http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/05/20070531-13.html): > [@President G.W. Bush](#): > > The President’s Proposal Is Based On The Principle That Climate Change Must Be Addressed By Fostering Both Energy Security And Economic Security, By Accelerating The Development And Deployment Of Transformational Clean Energy Technologies. > > [ul][li]The participants will develop parallel national commitments to promote key clean energy technologies.[/li][li]The proposal seeks to bring together the world’s top greenhouse gas emitters and energy consumers.[/li][li]In creating a new framework, the major emitters will work together to develop a long-term global goal to reduce greenhouse gasses.[/li][li]Each country will work to achieve this emissions goal by establishing its own ambitious mid-term national targets and programs, based on national circumstances.[/li][li]They will ensure advancement towards the global goal with a review process that assesses each country’s performances.[/ul][/li] Plenty more where that came from. I’m afraid you’ve revealed some rather damning things about yourself with that response. ---
**Author:** ![Spectre\_of\_Pithecanthropus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spectre_of_pithecanthropus/32/12343_2.png) [@Spectre\_of\_Pithecanthropus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spectre_of_Pithecanthropus)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2007, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nasa-study-only-10-years-to-climate-change-tipping-point/406082/52 "2007-05-31T23:51:38Z")
[QUOTE=Kimstu] Which is as much as to say, the source of the problem is rich people. The globally rich like the average American cause much more of the problem per capita than the globally poor like, say, the average Bangladeshi. [/quote] And the developing world has so many more “capitas”, so overall consumption does tend to balance out. However, I am deeply troubled by the way American cities have grown up to favor only cars in the past 50 years. This makes us an _extreme_ case of hyperconsumption, and much if not most of this consumption is necessary just to function in the economy. It isn’t capricious or something done for enjoyment. I’ve just about come to believe that our socioeconomic structure forces many into the suburbs when they would rather not live there. I was startled recently to learn that my stepdaughter is renting an 1100 square foot apartment in central Berlin for 550 Euros a month. How cool is that…a big apartment in a historic building, totally refurbished, in the center of a vibrant world class metropolis, close to rapid transit and everything, and this is actually an option for a foreign English teacher in Germany. You couldn’t touch that for such a price in the United States. Which is why, undoubtedly, many of us wind up in boring suburbs that must be driven to. > [@](#): > > And the locally rich like Gore cause much more of the problem than the locally (comparatively) poor like you or me. > > . ---
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2007, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nasa-study-only-10-years-to-climate-change-tipping-point/406082/53 "2007-06-04T13:24:33Z")
[QUOTE=Tuckerfan] I’m betting it’ll be less than two years. [/QUOTE] Or, it could be [right now.](http://www.newkerala.com/news5.php?action=fullnews&id=35448) > [@](#): > > The increase in emissions of the gases responsible for global warming suggests that the effects of climate change to come in this century could be even worse than United Nations scientists have predicted, the scientists said. > > According to the study, this year’s IPCC reports predicting reduced harvests, dwindling water supplies, melting glaciers and the loss of species may actually be understated. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2007, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nasa-study-only-10-years-to-climate-change-tipping-point/406082/54 "2007-06-05T17:14:40Z")
Meanwhile, the permafrost in Siberia – “a frozen peat bog the size of France and Germany combined” which “contains billions of tonnes of greenhouse gas” – is [melting for the first time since the last Ice Age.](http://www.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,12374,1546824,00.html) (Story is two years old, but I doubt the process has reversed since then.) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2007, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nasa-study-only-10-years-to-climate-change-tipping-point/406082/55 "2007-06-05T18:14:45Z")
[QUOTE=jjimm] ETA: except the most important part of the US right has finally [bought into it](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6709439.stm). [/QUOTE] There is, however, some skepticism as to whether Bush’s calling for an international conference on greenhouse gases outside the framework of the UN is just a cynical delaying and/or weaseling tactic – intended either to avoid doing anything substantive during the remainder of his term, or to find a less burdensome-to-business alternative to the Kyoto Protocols. See [this](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=423463) thread. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2007, 10:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nasa-study-only-10-years-to-climate-change-tipping-point/406082/56 "2007-06-05T22:37:18Z")
According to the [_Independent,_](http://environment.independent.co.uk/climate_change/article2609305.ece) global warming is happening “three times faster than the worst predictions.” This purportedly is from a new study by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences (which I cannot, however, seem to find on the NAS [website](http://www.nasonline.org/site/PageServer)). ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2007, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nasa-study-only-10-years-to-climate-change-tipping-point/406082/57 "2007-06-05T23:34:59Z")
Meanwhile, Bush is [cutting funds to monitor global warming from space.](http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/politics/la-sci-satellite5jun05,1,4977731.story?track=crosspromo&coll=la-news-politics-national&ctrack=1&cset=true) ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2007, 10:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nasa-study-only-10-years-to-climate-change-tipping-point/406082/58 "2007-06-06T10:58:24Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] According to the [_Independent,_](http://environment.independent.co.uk/climate_change/article2609305.ece) global warming is happening “three times faster than the worst predictions.” This purportedly is from a new study by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences (which I cannot, however, seem to find on the NAS [website](http://www.nasonline.org/site/PageServer)). [/QUOTE] There is a link directly to the report in the Independent story. [Report](http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/abstract/0700609104v1) pdf link is in the right hand box. ---
**Author:** ![marshmallow](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/df705f/32.png) [@marshmallow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/marshmallow)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2007, 11:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nasa-study-only-10-years-to-climate-change-tipping-point/406082/59 "2007-06-08T11:11:32Z")
> [@kanicbird](#): > > I do feel the left has had a worse history of misusing ‘science’ for political advancement then the right. Can you list some examples? ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2007, 11:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nasa-study-only-10-years-to-climate-change-tipping-point/406082/60 "2007-06-08T11:24:43Z")
[QUOTE=marshmallow] Can you list some examples? [/QUOTE] Some examples that trump the Nazi use of science and technology in the Holocaust. And creationism. And anti-gay ranting. And climate change denial. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nasa-study-only-10-years-to-climate-change-tipping-point/406082.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nasa-study-only-10-years-to-climate-change-tipping-point/406082.md?page=4)