# Nate Silver: As Nation and Parties Change, Republicans Are at an Electoral College Disadvantage **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 8, 2012, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-as-nation-and-parties-change-republicans-are-at-an-electoral-college-disadvantage/640412 "2012-11-08T22:17:26Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 6:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-as-nation-and-parties-change-republicans-are-at-an-electoral-college-disadvantage/640412/21 "2012-11-09T06:06:41Z")
He had previously stated that there was no significant electoral structural advantage for Obama and the Democrats; the results of the election are having him revisit that assessment. The results showed that Obama could have won the EC even with popular vote loss of a percent or so. ---
**Author:** ![etv78](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/d78d45/32.png) [@etv78](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/etv78)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 6:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-as-nation-and-parties-change-republicans-are-at-an-electoral-college-disadvantage/640412/22 "2012-11-09T06:15:12Z")
**Measure** -Can’t you say the same about SSM and older, conservative voters? Sorry, didn’t read **Marley** ’s post. ---
**Author:** ![bengangmo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@bengangmo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bengangmo)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 6:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-as-nation-and-parties-change-republicans-are-at-an-electoral-college-disadvantage/640412/23 "2012-11-09T06:15:52Z")
I don’t dispute Nate’s statistical findings (I might be clueless, but I’m not stupid), However I do have to wonder how much of the blue support comes directly from Obama being Obama - I wonder if becuase the minorities identify so strongly with him whether that is skewing results away from the norm. ---
**Author:** ![Enkel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/df705f/32.png) [@Enkel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enkel)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 6:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-as-nation-and-parties-change-republicans-are-at-an-electoral-college-disadvantage/640412/24 "2012-11-09T06:26:23Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > [Pot Legalization on the Ballot Dramatically Increased Youth Turnout](http://justsaynow.firedoglake.com/2012/11/08/pot-legalization-on-the-ballot-dramatically-increased-youth-turnout/). If you don’t take into account such processes, you might over-emphasize Obama’s appeal to the youth vote for example. In other words, most elections won’t have pot on the ballot which will tend to revert Democratic voter turnout towards more typical levels. I would so like to see recreational pot on the Ohio ballot. Not because I smoke it or because I care about Democrats, but because I think it’s a stupid thing to regulate any more than cigarettes or beer. They should separate industrial hemp and completely drop it from all regulations. Hmmm… so maybe I should write to the state Dem party about starting a petition to get it on the ballot… never thought about them as a potential asset… ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 7:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-as-nation-and-parties-change-republicans-are-at-an-electoral-college-disadvantage/640412/25 "2012-11-09T07:06:56Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > Don’t forget though that this is a preliminary cut at the data. There are always confounding factors to consider. For example, [Pot Legalization on the Ballot Dramatically Increased Youth Turnout](http://justsaynow.firedoglake.com/2012/11/08/pot-legalization-on-the-ballot-dramatically-increased-youth-turnout/). If you don’t take into account such processes, you might over-emphasize Obama’s appeal to the youth vote for example. In other words, most elections won’t have pot on the ballot which will tend to revert Democratic voter turnout towards more typical levels. > > More generally after the data is cut for the first time, it takes weeks to improve the analysis by another 20% or so. But in a nation with thin electoral margins, that can make a difference. > > Nate Silver isn’t a wizard, and he doesn’t pretend to be. He’s just a lucid writer, with an above average mastery of statistical modeling. He figures that some specialist (or team of specialists) will always be able to eventually beat him in the statistical game, so he needs to keep looking for new niches. The part about pot legalization to get the youth vote out is interesting. I have heard laws raising the state minimum wage will increase turnout among the working poor and disadvantaged. Those laws (pot legalization and the minimum wage) could be the democrats version of gay marriage laws as a tool of increasing turnout. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 9:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-as-nation-and-parties-change-republicans-are-at-an-electoral-college-disadvantage/640412/26 "2012-11-09T09:20:50Z")
> [@davidm](#): > > Those are incorrect answers to **Enginerd’s** question. You’re assuming a rational constructive response. > > The response will be to trash Nate Silver’s character and to question the validity of the science of statistics. I have it on good authority that he is a witch. I was thinking about the high-tech 21st century efficiency of the Obama campaign and cannot help but think the Republicans must be handicapped by the wing-nut anti-science base probably providing a substantial portion of their foot-soldiers. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 1:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-as-nation-and-parties-change-republicans-are-at-an-electoral-college-disadvantage/640412/27 "2012-11-09T13:14:02Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > It would appear that based on the actual results he is backing away from that position pretty strongly. You say that like it’s a bad thing? If Silver wants to keep on top of his game, he has to be willing to re-examine his methodology and base assumptions after each election. ---
**Author:** ![BrokenBriton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4bbf92/32.png) [@BrokenBriton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrokenBriton)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 1:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-as-nation-and-parties-change-republicans-are-at-an-electoral-college-disadvantage/640412/28 "2012-11-09T13:18:31Z")
Message: throw the old white guys under the bus and become more relevant to the modern world. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-as-nation-and-parties-change-republicans-are-at-an-electoral-college-disadvantage/640412/29 "2012-11-09T13:26:18Z")
> [@bengangmo](#): > > However I do have to wonder how much of the blue support comes directly from Obama being Obama - I wonder if becuase the minorities identify so strongly with him whether that is skewing results away from the norm. Hmmm, the popular vote was so close that it just may have made a difference in the popular vote _in this particular case_. Non African-American minorities don’t feel group affiliation for Obama, and black people mostly vote Democratic anyway, just not as in high numbers as they do for Obama. But even then, 5-10% or so of an 18% or so slice of the voters is still around a 1% shift in the overall vote, which makes an impressive-_looking_ difference in an election with such a close popular vote outcome, even if it doesn’t make a real difference usually. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 1:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-as-nation-and-parties-change-republicans-are-at-an-electoral-college-disadvantage/640412/30 "2012-11-09T13:33:50Z")
E > [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > That’s a very good article. > > One interesting aspect of it is that Nate Silver consistently said throughout the campaign that it was extremely unlikely that Obama would win with a minority of the popular vote. On this basis, he pitted the national versus state polls and said one or the other were most likely skewed (himself favoring the state polls). > > It would appear that based on the actual results he is backing away from that position pretty strongly. I’m having trouble following this. I see nothing in the article to support this, and Obama looks to have won the popular vote by about 3 million, and proportionally by pretty much the amount predicted by 538. What are you talking about? ETA: Indeed, the 538 prediction was Obama +2.5%. In the linked article Silver says the difference 2.4% and that he expects it will reach 2.5% as vote tallies are completed. Embrace reality. It might be refreshing. ---
**Author:** ![Crotalus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crotalus/32/41_2.png) [@Crotalus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crotalus)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-as-nation-and-parties-change-republicans-are-at-an-electoral-college-disadvantage/640412/31 "2012-11-09T13:58:51Z")
> [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](#): > > I’m having trouble following this. He is saying, I believe, that Silver’s projections of scenarios where Obama got less than 50% of the popular vote showed Obama losing the electoral vote, too. Now Silver is saying Obama could have won the electoral vote without winning the popular vote. ---
**Author:** ![davidm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidm/32/225_2.png) [@davidm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davidm)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-as-nation-and-parties-change-republicans-are-at-an-electoral-college-disadvantage/640412/32 "2012-11-09T15:41:31Z")
> [@tagos](#): > > I have it on good authority that he is a witch. > > I was thinking about the high-tech 21st century efficiency of the Obama campaign and cannot help but think the Republicans must be handicapped by the wing-nut anti-science base probably providing a substantial portion of their foot-soldiers. It looks like maybe this time the Republicans were hampered by using a corporate model for their GOTV effort. [Project ORCA Will Win the Election for Romney! - Politics & Elections - Straight Dope Message Board](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=671700) ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-as-nation-and-parties-change-republicans-are-at-an-electoral-college-disadvantage/640412/33 "2012-11-09T16:12:54Z")
> [@Crotalus](#): > > He is saying, I believe, that Silver’s projections of scenarios where Obama got less than 50% of the popular vote showed Obama losing the electoral vote, too. Now Silver is saying Obama could have won the electoral vote without winning the popular vote. I don’t Silver was ever saying that Obama would lose if he lost the popular vote. In fact, he gave a 5% chance of Obama losing the pop vote but still winning (out of all scenarios). What he was arguing was that the national polls showing Romney with a lead just didn’t match up with the state polls at all, and must be skewed. Which they obviously were. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-as-nation-and-parties-change-republicans-are-at-an-electoral-college-disadvantage/640412/34 "2012-11-09T16:15:54Z")
> [@davidm](#): > > It looks like maybe this time the Republicans were hampered by using a corporate model for their GOTV effort. [Project ORCA Will Win the Election for Romney! - Politics & Elections - Straight Dope Message Board](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=671700) Yea. Been reading about that since posting. A technical operation they didn’t have the staff qualified to run in support of people unable to take advantage of it if it had even worked. People expected to have to print off an 80 page pdf on the morning of the election to know what they should do. A mission critical system whose first beta test was the live event. Ineptitude of the highest order and on such a scale that it demonstrates that Romney was not fit for office. He might be great at looting companies but obviously not capable of setting up an effective electoral machine let alone run a country. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-as-nation-and-parties-change-republicans-are-at-an-electoral-college-disadvantage/640412/35 "2012-11-09T18:23:03Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > You say that like it’s a bad thing? If Silver wants to keep on top of his game, he has to be willing to re-examine his methodology and base assumptions after each election. Could you point to something I’ve said which leads to your impression that I “say that like it’s a bad thing”? What have I written which carries that implication? > [@AlsoNamedBort](#): > > I don’t Silver was ever saying that Obama would lose if he lost the popular vote. In fact, he gave a 5% chance of Obama losing the pop vote but still winning (out of all scenarios). What he was arguing was that the national polls showing Romney with a lead just didn’t match up with the state polls at all, and must be skewed. Which they obviously were. He argued against that possibility, at least early on. But even as later as November 4, [he wrote](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/state-and-national-polls-come-into-better-alignment/): > [@](#): > > Mr. Romney would not be in much danger of losing the Electoral College if he won the popular vote by more than about 1.5 percentage points. For example, he would be about a 95 percent favorite in the Electoral College if he won the popular vote by two percentage points, according to the forecast model. What he now points out, based on actual results, is that Obama would have tied with a 2.2% Romney advantage. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-as-nation-and-parties-change-republicans-are-at-an-electoral-college-disadvantage/640412.md?page=1)