# Nate Silver is Hari Seldon? - Donald Trump is the Mule **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 21, 2016, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-hari-seldon-donald-trump-is-the-mule/755283 "2016-05-21T03:40:17Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Salvor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Salvor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Salvor)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2016, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-hari-seldon-donald-trump-is-the-mule/755283/1 "2016-05-21T03:40:17Z")
Nate Silver tries to fill the role of Hari Seldon, mathematical models to tease out likelihoods, predicting the future for all to see, and leaving it up to others to carry out what he engineered. Of course, we see he is no real Hari Seldon, he got the Rise of Donald Trump wrong. Trump is something different, he is our nations version of the MULE. Except this time, the Mule won and took over a party, it remains to be seen whether the forces of reason and light can stop his domination. But is there a second foundation? We certainly have no Salvor Hardins on the democratic side, and I think you’d need even more to stop a Trump, so who, what can do it? ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2016, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-hari-seldon-donald-trump-is-the-mule/755283/2 "2016-05-21T03:54:56Z")
Sorry…what’s a Mule in this context? ---
**Author:** ![Itself](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/d07c76/32.png) [@Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Itself)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2016, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-hari-seldon-donald-trump-is-the-mule/755283/3 "2016-05-21T03:55:39Z")
I’ve read the Foundation series and still I have no idea what you’re talking about. ---
**Author:** ![Salvor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Salvor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Salvor)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2016, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-hari-seldon-donald-trump-is-the-mule/755283/4 "2016-05-21T04:10:38Z")
> [@Itself](#): > > I’ve read the Foundation series and still I have no idea what you’re talking about. … you never encountered the mule? He has special powers that allow him to take over in ways other mortal men cannot. Trump does not have mental powers but… he has something that gives him the sway to defy gravity and win the day. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2016, 4:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-hari-seldon-donald-trump-is-the-mule/755283/5 "2016-05-21T04:11:33Z")
I fear the OP is correct. But the first foundation has not yet fallen. Only the youth can stop the Mule. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2016, 5:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-hari-seldon-donald-trump-is-the-mule/755283/6 "2016-05-21T05:06:16Z")
So Chris Christie’s Han Pritcher? ---
**Author:** ![ataraxy22](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ataraxy22/32/307_2.png) [@ataraxy22](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ataraxy22)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2016, 5:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-hari-seldon-donald-trump-is-the-mule/755283/7 "2016-05-21T05:39:40Z")
Who is R. Daneel Olivaw? Hilary? ---
**Author:** ![Go\_Arachnid\_Laser\_1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b2d939/32.png) [@Go\_Arachnid\_Laser\_1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Go_Arachnid_Laser_1)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2016, 6:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-hari-seldon-donald-trump-is-the-mule/755283/8 "2016-05-21T06:21:54Z")
Whoa. You need to be a level 3 nerd at the very least to get this post. ---
**Author:** ![Mosier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ea924/32.png) [@Mosier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mosier)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2016, 7:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-hari-seldon-donald-trump-is-the-mule/755283/9 "2016-05-21T07:00:36Z")
R. Daneel Olivaw is Obama. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2016, 8:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-hari-seldon-donald-trump-is-the-mule/755283/10 "2016-05-21T08:49:43Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Sorry…what’s a Mule in this context? Unpredicted, and unpredictable. It’s easiest to just point you [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundation_and_Empire#The_Mule). ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2016, 9:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-hari-seldon-donald-trump-is-the-mule/755283/11 "2016-05-21T09:08:46Z")
I wonder if anyone has informed [Hari Seldon](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/member.php)? ~~ As for the OP - I’m pretty sure that there’s a mathematical model that would predict how often a human expert sometimes gets mathematical models wrong. Being wrong from time to time is how we know that Nate is not an android. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2016, 1:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-hari-seldon-donald-trump-is-the-mule/755283/12 "2016-05-21T13:22:29Z")
It’s not a bad analogy. I actually kinda like it, as far as it goes. I don’t think it goes very far, but it’s a fun idea. Plus we get to call Trump a mule. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2016, 1:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-hari-seldon-donald-trump-is-the-mule/755283/13 "2016-05-21T13:29:07Z")
Who’s Trotsky? Who’s on first? What’s on second? ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2016, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-hari-seldon-donald-trump-is-the-mule/755283/14 "2016-05-21T15:11:41Z")
In essence, the comparison is made because Trump’s success defies logic and, like the Mule’s, is explainable only through the application of mutant powers. ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2016, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-hari-seldon-donald-trump-is-the-mule/755283/15 "2016-05-21T15:22:38Z")
> [@Salvor](#): > > Nate Silver tries to fill the role of Hari Seldon, mathematical models to tease out likelihoods, predicting the future for all to see, and leaving it up to others to carry out what he engineered. > > Of course, we see he is no real Hari Seldon, he got the Rise of Donald Trump wrong. Trump is something different, he is our nations version of the MULE. No, Trump is not so special as that. Nate Silver’s brand of prediction is just young and simple and raw. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2016, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-hari-seldon-donald-trump-is-the-mule/755283/16 "2016-05-21T15:31:47Z")
Very timely, since Nate Silver offered a bit of a [mea culpa](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/) on the matter last week. He admits he committed a cardinal sin for a statistician - he used gut instincts more than building a solid statistical model for Trump. Much of his failure is due to acting the opposite of Hari Seldon, i.e. putting too much of his subjective opinion into his work. ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2016, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-hari-seldon-donald-trump-is-the-mule/755283/17 "2016-05-22T16:31:37Z")
Nate Silver is a smart man, but like me, he totally underestimated the power of the immigration issue. And its easy o understand why. He works in a field, and lives among a class of people, in which illegal immigration is seen as either unimportant or as a positive boon. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2016, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-hari-seldon-donald-trump-is-the-mule/755283/18 "2016-05-22T16:38:14Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > Only the youth can stop the Mule. If there is hope, it lies in the proles. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2016, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-hari-seldon-donald-trump-is-the-mule/755283/19 "2016-05-22T17:03:52Z")
> [@E-DUB](#): > > In essence, the comparison is made because Trump’s success defies logic and, like the Mule’s, is explainable only through the application of mutant powers. Actually, though, they’re his extraterrestrial scalp-parasite’s powers. ---
**Author:** ![jasg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f0a364/32.png) [@jasg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jasg)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2016, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-hari-seldon-donald-trump-is-the-mule/755283/20 "2016-05-22T18:07:40Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Actually, though, they’re his extraterrestrial scalp-parasite’s powers. Where is Elihu Nivens when you need him? [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-hari-seldon-donald-trump-is-the-mule/755283.md?page=2)