# Nate Silver is systematically building a case for declaring pollster Strategic Vision, LLC a fraud **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 27, 2009, 4:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-systematically-building-a-case-for-declaring-pollster-strategic-vision-llc-a-fraud/511728 "2009-09-27T04:36:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![GameHat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/ed655f/32.png) [@GameHat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GameHat)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2009, 4:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-systematically-building-a-case-for-declaring-pollster-strategic-vision-llc-a-fraud/511728/1 "2009-09-27T04:36:46Z")
Does anyone else find this fascinating? It started 9.24 - the [American Association for Public Opinion Research](http://aapor.org/AAPOR_Raises_Objections_to_Actions_by_Strategic_Vision_LLC.htm) reprimanded SVLLC for “failing to disclose even basic information about their political polls” (quote from Silver’s blog) 9.24 - Nate Silver [jumps into the fray](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/09/few-more-questions-for-sketchy-pollster.html), asking a few questions: > [@](#): > > 1. Are you actually polling anyone at all? Or are you just throwing some numbers up on a webpage and hoping nobody calls you on it? > > 2. What is the location of your “offices” in Tallahassee, Madison and Dallas? Why is there no street address or phone number listed in association with them? How come none of the locations show up in a Yahoo! or Google search? > > 3. Why would you pick the name “Strategic Vision, LLC” for your company when the name “Strategic Vision, Inc.” was already in use by an extremely well regarded, San Diego-based research firm that has been in business for more than 30 years? Are you deliberately trying to confuse your potential clients and leverage Strategic Vision, Inc.'s much stronger brand name? 9.25 - Silver posts [Strategic Vision Polls Exhibit Unusual Patterns, Possibly Indicating Fraud](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/09/strategic-vision-polls-exhibit-unusual.html). Fascinating, and disturbing. 9.26 - Silver responds to the most common complaint on his message boards - that he doesn’t apply the statistics indicating fraud on the part of SVLLC to other pollsters. [Here he compares Quinnipac to SVLLC](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/09/comparison-study-unusual-patterns-in.html). SVLLC tells a reporter that [they plan to sue him](http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2009/09/nate-silver-pollster-may-be-fraud.html). 9.26 - Silver [dissects](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/09/are-oklahoma-students-really-this-dumb.html) an SVLLC poll that claims Oklahoma high school students lack basic political knowledge Things are still developing, but I’m glued to the computer. I read 538 religiously during the last election cycle and was extremely impressed at how good Silver was at breaking down the math of the many different political polls and the ramifications of such. Anyone else following this? ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2009, 4:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-systematically-building-a-case-for-declaring-pollster-strategic-vision-llc-a-fraud/511728/2 "2009-09-27T04:42:26Z")
A year ago, when told that he was originally a baseball statistician, I realized that Nate Silver was incorruptible. I’ve spent my life with the type, and there is NOTHING more important to them than the Numbers. After that 538 became as close to gospel as could be found online. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2009, 4:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-systematically-building-a-case-for-declaring-pollster-strategic-vision-llc-a-fraud/511728/3 "2009-09-27T04:56:32Z")
This is the first I’ve heard of it. However, the first link does acknowledge that SVLCC is not a member of the organization. There for it has no obligation whatsoever to provide any information at all to the national membership organization. If SVLCC is cooking the numbers, I suppose the next reasonable question is _why_. It could be they are defrauding their own clients, which becomes a case for state criminal justice departments. But it could also be that they are acting as a cover for their clients – that they simply produce the numbers their clients want – and the clients use them however they do. I’m not even sure that’s a crime at all. Then again SVLCC could simply be a very paranoid organization that considers all their methology to be proprietary, and simply won’t provide it as a matter of policy. ---
**Author:** ![GameHat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/ed655f/32.png) [@GameHat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GameHat)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2009, 5:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-systematically-building-a-case-for-declaring-pollster-strategic-vision-llc-a-fraud/511728/4 "2009-09-27T05:01:41Z")
> [@Boyo\_Jim](#): > > Then again SVLCC could simply be a very paranoid organization that considers all their methology to be proprietary, and simply won’t provide it as a matter of policy. Re-read [Strategic Vision Polls Exhibit Unusual Patterns, Possibly Indicating Fraud](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/09/strategic-vision-polls-exhibit-unusual.html) It’s not just that SVLLC is refusing to disclose it’s polling methodologies. It’s that their published data shows disturbingly non-random results that other polls would be expected to show. As for why, it’s not hard to deduce. It’s a lot cheaper to make up some numbers, then sell them “polling results” than it is to actually do the groundwork to collect such numbers. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2009, 5:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-systematically-building-a-case-for-declaring-pollster-strategic-vision-llc-a-fraud/511728/5 "2009-09-27T05:22:06Z")
ACORN. Really, is there any doubt? ---
**Author:** ![GameHat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/ed655f/32.png) [@GameHat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GameHat)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2009, 5:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-systematically-building-a-case-for-declaring-pollster-strategic-vision-llc-a-fraud/511728/6 "2009-09-27T05:35:24Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > ACORN. Really, is there any doubt? sorry, what does ACORN have to do with it? /honest question ---
**Author:** ![sleeping](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/839c29/32.png) [@sleeping](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sleeping)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2009, 6:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-systematically-building-a-case-for-declaring-pollster-strategic-vision-llc-a-fraud/511728/7 "2009-09-27T06:54:17Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > ACORN. Really, is there any doubt? Why are you so intent on glossing over the role of AmeriCorps in all this?! ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2009, 12:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-systematically-building-a-case-for-declaring-pollster-strategic-vision-llc-a-fraud/511728/8 "2009-09-27T12:41:53Z")
> [@Boyo\_Jim](#): > > But it could also be that they are acting as a cover for their clients – that they simply produce the numbers their clients want – and the clients use them however they do. I’m not even sure that’s a crime at all. > **[Fraud](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fraud)** > > In law, fraud is intentional deception to deprive a victim of a legal right or to gain from a victim unlawfully or unfairly. Fraud can violate civil law (e.g., a fraud victim may sue the fraud perpetrator to thwart the fraud or recover monetary compensation) or criminal law (e.g., a fraud perpetrator may be prosecuted and imprisoned by governmental authorities), or it may be an element of another civil or criminal wrong despite itself causing no loss of money, property, or legal right. The pur... ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2009, 1:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-systematically-building-a-case-for-declaring-pollster-strategic-vision-llc-a-fraud/511728/9 "2009-09-27T13:06:00Z")
His case seems pretty solid. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2009, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-systematically-building-a-case-for-declaring-pollster-strategic-vision-llc-a-fraud/511728/10 "2009-09-27T16:58:57Z")
Looking at his math, I’d say he’s got a pretty solid case as well. However, the caveat is the one he himself mentions - perhaps there’s something about the nature of the polls they do that is causing the numerical bias. For example, if they are only hired in cases where the election is very close, you might expect certain numbers to appear more often than others. The other problem with the analysis (which he also mentions) is that even the ‘control’ he used shows significant non-randomness. So it’s not a complete slam-dunk. But it is strong evidence that something’s afoot. As is Strategic Vision’s refusal to release their methodology and supporting data. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2009, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-systematically-building-a-case-for-declaring-pollster-strategic-vision-llc-a-fraud/511728/11 "2009-09-27T17:13:03Z")
Yeah, he’s built a pretty good circumstantial case. And it’s likely impacted their business already. It’ll be up to the real journalists to finish the job. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2009, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-systematically-building-a-case-for-declaring-pollster-strategic-vision-llc-a-fraud/511728/12 "2009-09-27T18:31:54Z")
Or criminal investigators of the appropriate agency if criminal fraud may be involved. ---
**Author:** ![Stentor\_2.5](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bc8723/32.png) [@Stentor\_2.5](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stentor_2.5)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2009, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-systematically-building-a-case-for-declaring-pollster-strategic-vision-llc-a-fraud/511728/13 "2009-09-27T19:11:41Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > Yeah, he’s built a pretty good circumstantial case. And it’s likely impacted their business already. It’ll be up to the real journalists to finish the job. Nate Silver is a real journalist. One of the best. ---
**Author:** ![waterj2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/858c86/32.png) [@waterj2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/waterj2)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2009, 5:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-systematically-building-a-case-for-declaring-pollster-strategic-vision-llc-a-fraud/511728/14 "2009-09-28T05:52:12Z")
Meanwhile, over on [pollster.com](http://pollster.com), [Mark Blumenthal has some more questions](http://www.pollster.com/blogs/strategic_vision_time_for_tran.php). Also, some concerns in general about pollster transparency that this issue brings to light. And given that I found this linked from Andrew Sullivan’s blog, it looks like the story is picking up some momentum. ---
**Author:** ![MeDrewNotYou](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/838e76/32.png) [@MeDrewNotYou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MeDrewNotYou)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2009, 8:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-systematically-building-a-case-for-declaring-pollster-strategic-vision-llc-a-fraud/511728/15 "2009-09-28T08:59:55Z")
While I think some of the other posts are more damning in actually _proving_ something’s up, the [Oklahoma high school polling](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/09/are-oklahoma-students-really-this-dumb.html) post looks the worst on its face. 1000 students were asked an **no one** got a perfect score? And only 28 got 6 questions or more correct? Only 230 knew who the first president was, and 270 knew the parts of Congress? Even if OK was the concentration of Stupid in the northern hemisphere, there has to be at least one smart kid making sure the others don’t drown in their own drool. As an aside, 110 students thought it was the Republican Party and the Communist Party. I’d like to pretend an equal number said the Democratic Party and the Fascist Party, or the Cute Furry Animal Party and the Puppy Eater/Seal Clubbing Party. If you’re going to lie about your numbers to support your bias, _subtlety is your friend!!!_ ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2009, 10:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-systematically-building-a-case-for-declaring-pollster-strategic-vision-llc-a-fraud/511728/16 "2009-09-28T10:05:36Z")
> [@GameHat](#): > > Things are still developing, but I’m glued to the computer. I read 538 religiously during the last election cycle and was extremely impressed at how good Silver was at breaking down the math of the many different political polls and the ramifications of such. > > Anyone else following this? Never heard of 538 or Strategic Vision. Very interesting. ---
**Author:** ![MsRobyn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/90ced4/32.png) [@MsRobyn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MsRobyn)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2009, 10:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-systematically-building-a-case-for-declaring-pollster-strategic-vision-llc-a-fraud/511728/17 "2009-09-28T10:27:05Z")
Question: Do political polling firms release their data sets? I would expect that Quinnipiac would, being as they’re an academic institution, but do Gallup, Rasmussen, et al.? ---
**Author:** ![GameHat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/ed655f/32.png) [@GameHat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GameHat)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2009, 11:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-systematically-building-a-case-for-declaring-pollster-strategic-vision-llc-a-fraud/511728/18 "2009-09-28T23:57:58Z")
More developments: 9.27 - Silver determines that SVLLC’s office address [actually points to a motel park in a rural Atlanta town two hours away from Atlanta](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/09/strategic-vision-office-is-located-in.html) 9.28 - Silver points out that [SVLLC’s poll results always sum to 100](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/09/monday-mish-mash-strategic-vision-las.html) - something that should be unlikely for an honest poll Quoting from 538 > [@](#): > > Adding up to 100 – that sounds like a good thing, right? > > Well, not really. For instance, if your raw numbers are something like… > > Oxendine 44.3 > Barnes 39.4 > Undecided 16.3 > > …those should round to 44, 39, and 16, which add up to 99 percent rather than 100. In a two-candidate poll, in fact, the numbers should not add up to 100 percent about a quarter of the time because of this rounding error, and the likelihood increases with every additional option you introduce into the poll. > > For most pollsters, including Rasmussen, Gallup, CBS/NYT, ABC/Post, Pew, PPP, SurveyUSA, FOX News, and Quinnipiac, it’s very easy to find plenty of examples like these. > > Nevertheless, there are a couple of exceptions. NBC/WSJ, and Research 2000, like Strategic Vision, seem to calculate their undecided/don’t know number only after having rounded all the other numbers off, and then subtracting that total from 100. In other words, they correct any rounding error in the undecided column. I don’t think that’s the proper way to do it … but it’s certainly not a huge deal. > > So this piece of evidence alone isn’t particularly incriminating. Still, if you want to get all Bayesian about it, although perhaps 2 out of the 11 most prolific pollsters do things this way, I’d imagine that the likelihood would be much higher than that if a pollster were fudging numbers – they’d have to be fairly clever to build in examples of rounding error and this is the sort of thing they might easily overlook. ---
**Author:** ![Frostillicus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e9bcb4/32.png) [@Frostillicus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frostillicus)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2009, 3:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-systematically-building-a-case-for-declaring-pollster-strategic-vision-llc-a-fraud/511728/19 "2009-09-29T03:12:31Z")
I wouldn’t go against Nate Silver when it come to crunching numbers. I hope the “polling company” in question does take him to court, because they will have their corporate ass handed to them if they do. ---
**Author:** ![MsWhatsit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/eb8c5e/32.png) [@MsWhatsit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MsWhatsit)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2009, 3:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-systematically-building-a-case-for-declaring-pollster-strategic-vision-llc-a-fraud/511728/20 "2009-09-29T03:15:21Z")
I just fell in love with Nate Silver all over again for his use of the phrase, “if you want to get all Bayesian about it.” [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-is-systematically-building-a-case-for-declaring-pollster-strategic-vision-llc-a-fraud/511728.md?page=2)