# Nate Silver Predicts GOP Will Take The Senate **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 26, 2014, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624 "2014-03-26T19:49:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2014, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/1 "2014-03-26T19:49:35Z")
Nate Silver did startlingly well in predicting the 2012 elections, now he predicts that the GOP stands a 60 percent chance of taking control of the Senate, gaining exactly six seats, the minimum number needed to do so. [Here’s a Huffington Post story about it.](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/24/nate-silver-gop-senate_n_5020271.html) Two questions occur: what, if anything, can the Democrats do to turn things around and retain control of the Senate? And should the worst happen, and it certainly looks like it WILL happen, how does this change the Democratic game plan with regard to retaining the gains made in the last six years and turning things around in 2016? I personally think Obama will have to do a LOT of vetoing. I doubt the Republicans will be able to get the 2/3 majority needed to override a veto in the Senate, and that’s all that will save Obamacare and a lot of other legislation, too. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2014, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/2 "2014-03-26T19:53:17Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > Nate Silver did startlingly well in predicting the 2012 elections, now he predicts that the GOP stands a 60 percent chance of taking control of the Senate, gaining exactly six seats, the minimum number needed to do so. [Here’s a Huffington Post story about it.](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/24/nate-silver-gop-senate_n_5020271.html) > > Two questions occur: what, if anything, can the Democrats do to turn things around and retain control of the Senate? > > And should the worst happen, and it certainly looks like it WILL happen, how does this change the Democratic game plan with regard to retaining the gains made in the last six years and turning things around in 2016? > > I personally think Obama will have to do a LOT of vetoing. I doubt the Republicans will be able to get the 2/3 majority needed to override a veto in the Senate, and that’s all that will save Obamacare and a lot of other legislation, too. Good thing the Democrats trashed the filibuster rule, huh? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2014, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/3 "2014-03-26T19:54:36Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Good thing the Democrats trashed the filibuster rule, huh? Yeah, good thing. Better still if they had trashed the **whole** rule. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2014, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/4 "2014-03-26T20:00:15Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Yeah, good thing. Better still if they had trashed the **whole** rule. I don’t really have a strong preference as to the existence of the rule, in whole or on part. I have a very strong preference that the same rules, or lack of same, should exist no matter which party is in the majority. Other luminaries, such as the New York Times editorial page, have expressed firm support for the rule when Republicans controlled the Senate and urged its removal when Democrats did. It’s true that the so-called nuclear option exercised last year was pretty safe for Democrats, since it involved only executive branch nominees and non-Supreme Court judicial nominees. Obama will still be President, after all. Should the Republicans take the next step and erase the rest of the rule? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2014, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/5 "2014-03-26T20:01:49Z")
[Response from Salon:](http://www.salon.com/2014/03/26/nate_silver_and_the_ensuing_conservative_delusion_dimwits_still_dont_get_unskewing/) > [@](#): > > I think liberals probably are (or have become) less prone to perpetuating alternative narratives, in the hope they become self-fulfilling, than conservatives. They took a turn at poll unskewing in 2004 (though not as severely or universally as conservatives did in 2012) and seem to have learned their lesson. > > But even if that weren’t the case, the Silverization of election forecasting has grown deep roots on the left. Major liberal political sites like TPM (my old haunt) and Huffington Post now use statistical best practices to aggregate polls, as do other smaller operations (similar to Silver’s old one at the New York Times), and they all projected the outcome in 2012 just about as well or better than he did on the eve of the last election. > > As long as these remain trusted liberal institutions, liberals won’t be taken in easily by statistical snake oil merchants. I don’t see liberals abandoning them en masse, and I can’t imagine the aggregators themselves engaging in a conspiracy to falsify (er, unskew) their projections. > > So I really don’t see liberals contriving a false confidence in their chances this November. To the contrary, given the structural disadvantages Democrats face this cycle, I wouldn’t be surprised if heavily invested liberals endure periods of deep resignation over the coming months. I would just encourage them not to get taken in by witless or opportunistic suggestions that things would be going fine for Senate Democrats this cycle were it not for the Affordable Care Act. We know that they’re defending a bunch of seats in conservative states that they won in a 2008 landslide. And we know that midterm electorates have been older and whiter than presidential electorates going back decades. And while 30 years ago that didn’t confer partisan advantage in either direction, the country has aged and polarized since then, and the phenomenon has evolved into a structural advantage for Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2014, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/6 "2014-03-26T20:02:59Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Should the Republicans take the next step and erase the rest of the rule? **Yes.** ---
**Author:** ![42fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/4/b487fb/32.png) [@42fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/42fish)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2014, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/7 "2014-03-26T20:13:09Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Should the Republicans take the next step and erase the rest of the rule? I think I’d like to see them go back to the older system where if you were gonna filibuster you’d have to deliver an actual filibuster. Given enough hot air, we might finally see someone break Strom Thurmond’s record. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2014, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/8 "2014-03-26T20:21:07Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > **Yes.** I don’t think it matters whether or not we or any member of the Democratic Party in the Senate agree with them getting rid of the rest of the rule – they’re going to do it. Genie, bottle, out. And it’s probably about time. So I’m in agreement with you here, Brainglutton. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2014, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/9 "2014-03-26T20:21:22Z")
It’s most odd for someone who has spent so much time and effort, in the voter-suppression threads, proclaiming the absolute importance of the absolute rule of the majority of the day, however slim, to refuse to denounce the Senate filibuster rule. Most odd indeed. As if some other consideration were in play. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2014, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/10 "2014-03-26T20:24:22Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > I personally think Obama will have to do a LOT of vetoing. I hope he does. “A LOT of vetoing” projects weakness. ---
**Author:** ![2sense](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/2/e47774/32.png) [@2sense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/2sense)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2014, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/11 "2014-03-26T20:28:03Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Good thing the Democrats trashed the filibuster rule, huh? Why would the Dems care? They aren’t likely to want to filibuster Obama’s appointments. Lets see what happens in 2016. If either side sweeps to full control of Congress and the White House then the filibuster will matter. Otherwise one party still has to compromise with the other. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2014, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/12 "2014-03-26T20:47:05Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > I hope he does. “A LOT of vetoing” projects weakness. Leave it to **Terr** to _hope_ the leader of our country projects weakness. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2014, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/13 "2014-03-26T20:49:43Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Leave it to **Terr** to _hope_ the leader of our country projects weakness. Domestically, for my political interests - sure. I am not a fan of Obama’s agenda, so if he accomplishes nothing for the rest of the term, I will be happy. Internationally, he is projecting weakness all over the place already and, I presume, will continue to do so. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2014, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/14 "2014-03-26T20:51:42Z")
Wait, is that the wishy-washy prevaricator Obama or the islamo-fascist dictator? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2014, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/15 "2014-03-26T20:54:57Z")
Putin comes from the KGB, an environment where paranoia is a survival skill, and he survived splendidly. Never threaten a nuclear armed paranoid. If that’s weakness, pass the milquetoast. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2014, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/16 "2014-03-26T20:57:38Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > I hope he does. “A LOT of vetoing” projects weakness. No, it only reflects partisan division between the executive and legislative branches, a not unusual state of affairs. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2014, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/17 "2014-03-26T21:12:43Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Internationally, he is projecting weakness all over the place already and, I presume, will continue to do so. LOL. I’ll take this supposed “weakness” if it means less war, way WAY less Americans dying, and way WAY higher popularity and approval for the US as a country, abroad. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2014, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/18 "2014-03-26T21:28:02Z")
I think he might be right. I think he also made the same prediction in 2012, though, and he’s not making a huge statement by saying slightly favored. So, the GOP might win, chances are good, and the quality of the candidates will probably matter a lot. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2014, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/19 "2014-03-26T22:15:41Z")
Silver seems about right, although I’d actually put it at more like 75% chance of a GOP takeover. I think he’s too conservative in assuming a more even divide in results while I think it’s more likely that the GOP will take either a ton of seats or very few than that they will end up with exactly 50. It will be very interesting to see what a GOP-controlled Senate featuring 2-4 Republican Presidential candidates attempts to pass. Obamacare repeal obviously, but whither immigration reform Senator Rubio? How about a nice tasty Medicare-cutting budget sponsored by Rand Paul and Ted Cruz? ---
**Author:** ![dublos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/f08c70/32.png) [@dublos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dublos)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2014, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/20 "2014-03-26T22:19:38Z")
Lets see… how did he put it? Republicans up 6 seats plus or minus 5 seats. That’s a pretty large margin for error at this point. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624.md?page=2)