# Nate Silver Predicts GOP Will Take The Senate **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 26, 2014, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624 "2014-03-26T19:49:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2014, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/41 "2014-03-27T14:29:34Z")
I don’t see this as a particularly significant prediction, but the handwaving by people who take Silver’s happier predictions as gospel is rather amusing. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2014, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/42 "2014-03-27T15:04:10Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Not really seeing how this thread is different from [this thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=718775), so I’ll repeat what I said there: Two differences: Nate Silver is not a Republican, and a 60 percent chance of picking up six seats, a bare majority, is not a “tsunami.” The Republicans as electoral predictors have little or no cred with me. Nate Silver tends to get things right. > [@](#): > > I’m not really seeing that as a prediction that the GOP will take the the Senate. Well, going back to the OP’s (a fine fellow, I hear) link: > [@](#): > > Republicans need six seats to regain control of the Senate chamber. How many seats did Silver think the GOP would win? “Exactly six,” he told ABC’s Jonathan Karl. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2014, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/43 "2014-03-27T15:06:31Z")
It isn’t even a prediction, just an analysis of probabilities based on data available at the time, and which he acknowledges could change dramatically. 6 +/- 5? Come on now. It’s also amusing, and rather disappointing, to see the number of people who consider Silver a rare genius just because he’s applying tools available to anyone who’s taken a college-level statistics class. Nothing he does is magical or complex or even nearly cutting-edge. He just happens to be articulate about it. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2014, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/44 "2014-03-27T15:24:53Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > I don’t see this as a particularly significant prediction, but the handwaving by people who take Silver’s happier predictions as gospel is rather amusing. Well, of course, the prediction is not a fait accompli. But from someone with Silver’s track record, it’s at LEAST a dire warning. If there are any national Democratic leaders who had even the tiniest shred of complacency about retaining control of the Senate, they should now be running around like their hair was on fire screaming at the top of their lungs, “WE ARE **SCREWED** IF WE DON’T STEP UP OUR GAME BIG TIME!” Sure, it’s many months until November. And a Senate Republican candidate or three may stick their foot in their mouths with some outrageously stupid/evil pronouncement that will destroy his or her cred with the voters. Republicans have a history of doing that of late, partly because their bubble has become so complete that their world view is out of step with the rest of us. But counting on your opponent to make major mistakes is not a winning strategy. It’s a loser’s strategy. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2014, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/45 "2014-03-27T15:27:00Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > It isn’t even a prediction, just an analysis of probabilities based on data available at the time, and which he acknowledges could change dramatically. 6 +/- 5? Come on now. > > It’s also amusing, and rather disappointing, to see the number of people who consider Silver a rare genius just because he’s applying tools available to anyone who’s taken a college-level statistics class. Nothing he does is magical or complex or even nearly cutting-edge. He just happens to be articulate about it. Yeah, but he **gets things right** , and he does not seem to be blinkered by partisanship either way. He goes with the numbers whatever they are. In the world of politics, that’ll do. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2014, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/46 "2014-03-27T15:27:27Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > I don’t see this as a particularly significant prediction, but the handwaving by people who take Silver’s happier predictions as gospel is rather amusing. It’s not handwaving, it’s just a very ambiguous prediction. 60% is not a guarantee, 6 ±5 is a huge margin of error and the election is still plenty far away. To put it another way, if Silver had given those same odds to the democrats do you think anyone here would take it a guarantee that we were going to win six seats in november? i really really doubt that. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2014, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/47 "2014-03-27T15:53:42Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > I don’t see this as a particularly significant prediction, but the handwaving by people who take Silver’s happier predictions as gospel is rather amusing. See the article linked in post #5. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2014, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/48 "2014-03-27T16:00:48Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > I don’t see this as a particularly significant prediction, but the handwaving by people who take Silver’s happier predictions as gospel is rather amusing. Can you point to some? ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2014, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/49 "2014-03-27T16:30:33Z")
It should be a wake up call for Democratic fundraisers. A lot can and probably will happen in the next 7 months, but if Democrats don’t take the warning seriously, we’ll have only ourselves to blame. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2014, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/50 "2014-03-27T16:56:34Z")
Last time, Nate included a factor measuring the impact of voter suppression. Did he do that with this as well? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2014, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/51 "2014-03-27T17:05:40Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Last time, Nate included a factor measuring the impact of voter suppression. Did he do that with this as well? I see no mention of that [here](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fivethirtyeight-senate-forecast/). ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2014, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/52 "2014-03-27T17:07:21Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > Yeah, but he **gets things right** , and he does not seem to be blinkered by partisanship either way. He goes with the numbers whatever they are. In the world of politics, that’ll do. You’re right, but it’s both surprising and shameful that any of that is so rare. It \*should \*be a basic expectation. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2014, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/53 "2014-03-27T17:08:13Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > The GOP will of COURSE get rid of all the filibuster rules if they take the Senate, this is how the GOP operates now, if they have power, they use it. I’m not sure that this is true. As long as Obama is in the whitehouse, the Republicans can’t get their legislation past his veto. So there isn’t that great an incentive for the Democrats in the senate to Filibuster, since that just makes them look obstructionist. The only way that the Senate is going to filibuster is if there was some moderate right of center legislation that they don’t like but the president doesn’t oppose. But I doubt there is going to be too much of that kind of legislation, so the Republicans won’t need to end the filibuster. If things changed so that Republicans controlled the presidency, then the filibuster would be gone as soon as they could write a bill banning abortions on embryos older than three weeks. ---
**Author:** ![YogSothoth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/8edcca/32.png) [@YogSothoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YogSothoth)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2014, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/54 "2014-03-27T17:19:06Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Yog, you have said upfront, IIRC, that you believe rules like this should exist when there is a Democratic minority but not when there’s a GOP minority – yes? Yes, I’m very open about my bias. Republicans have shown they cannot be trusted with power, Democrats can, for the most part. The difference, I always say, is that reality supports the Democratic side most of the time. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2014, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/55 "2014-03-27T17:26:33Z")
Unless the Dems achieve a reliable hold on power. Then the unprincipled and ambitious will pretend to care about Democrat values. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2014, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/56 "2014-03-27T17:40:41Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > It should be a wake up call for Democratic fundraisers. A lot can and probably will happen in the next 7 months, but if Democrats don’t take the warning seriously, we’ll have only ourselves to blame. Brother you ain’t whistling dixie. I’m getting a couple of emails per day from various fundraising groups (and some calls)…the hook is ALWAYS some variant of ‘Silver says we’re gonna lose! Only you can prove him wrong by sending cash!’ Oy. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2014, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/57 "2014-03-27T17:50:20Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > Well, going back to the OP’s (a fine fellow, I hear) link: The OP’s link stinks. 😉 I go to [the source](http://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/video/week-nate-silver-2014-23024622), and here is what was left off in your cite: > [@](#): > > How many are they going to pick up? I’d say exactly six. _But it’s probably six plus or minus five._ Emphasis added. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2014, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/58 "2014-03-27T18:55:58Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > It’s not handwaving, it’s just a very ambiguous prediction. 60% is not a guarantee, 6 ±5 is a huge margin of error and the election is still plenty far away. To put it another way, if Silver had given those same odds to the democrats do you think anyone here would take it a guarantee that we were going to win six seats in november? i really really doubt that. No, but no one said “guarantee” did they? And Silver does not make such pronouncements lightly. He’s saying, “Here is what the numbers are saying right now.” Democrats will put their hands over their ears at their peril. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2014, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/59 "2014-03-27T18:57:00Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > The OP’s link stinks. 😉 > > I go to [the source](http://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/video/week-nate-silver-2014-23024622), and here is what was left off in your cite: > > Emphasis added. Actually, you can see right on the video where Silver says he thinks the Republicans will win six seats. ---
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2014, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624/60 "2014-03-27T19:00:36Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > I’m sure Silver is too wise to say in March what WILL happen in November. Eight months is forever in politics. > [@DigitalC](#): > > It’s not handwaving, it’s just a very ambiguous prediction. 60% is not a guarantee, 6 ±5 is a huge margin of error and the election is still plenty far away. To put it another way, if Silver had given those same odds to the democrats do you think anyone here would take it a guarantee that we were going to win six seats in november? i really really doubt that. I have faith in the Republicans’ recent predilection to step on their own tummy banana between now and November. I can’t imagine a great deal of veterans are pleased with them cutting vets’ benefits, and the more they try to repeal ACA the worse it makes them look. Let’s see what Nate says in August. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nate-silver-predicts-gop-will-take-the-senate/684624.md?page=4)