# National Intelligence Council predicts end of U.S. dominance
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819
**Category:** Great Debates
**Created:** [November 21, 2008, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819 "2008-11-21T14:17:32Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 1
### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [November 21, 2008, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/1 "2008-11-21T14:17:32Z")
Story [here:](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/nov/20/barack-obama-president-intelligence-agency)
> [@](#):
>
> The United States’ leading intelligence organisation has warned that the world is entering an increasingly unstable and unpredictable period in which the advance of western-style democracy is no longer assured, and some states are in danger of being “taken over and run by criminal networks”.
>
> The global trends review, produced by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) every four years, represents sobering reading in Barack Obama’s intray as he prepares to take office in January. The country he inherits, the report warns, will no longer be able to “call the shots” alone, as its power over an increasingly multipolar world begins to wane.
>
> Looking ahead to 2025, the NIC (which coordinates analysis from all the US intelligence agencies), foresees a fragmented world, where conflict over scarce resources is on the rise, poorly contained by “ramshackle” international institutions, while nuclear proliferation, particularly in the Middle East, and even nuclear conflict grow more likely.
>
> “Global Trends 2025: A World Transformed” warns that the spread of western democratic capitalism cannot be taken for granted, as it was by George Bush and America’s neoconservatives.
I must say, all that sounds very . . . believable. Any reason to be skeptical?
Any reason to expect neoconservatism to have any life left in it in the coming decade?
If it is reliable, then, based on this picture, what sort of foreign-policy directions should Obama take?
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### Author:  [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)
#### Post date: [November 21, 2008, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/2 "2008-11-21T14:37:27Z")
We (in the USA) have had it on top for a long time. But this situation cannot last, because:
-we are broke. We cannot afford to police the world any more
-we are a smaller proportion of the world population (India and China now are \>2 billion people)
-conventional military forces are useless ; our disastrous experiences in afghanistan and Irq have shown this
-our government consistently ignores the will of the people; therefore, it is setting itself up for a revolt
Our “leadership” (morally bankrupt and corrupt) is doing everything possible to destroy the USA
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### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [November 21, 2008, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/3 "2008-11-21T14:51:54Z")
> [@ralph124c](#):
>
> -our government consistently ignores the will of the people; therefore, it is setting itself up for a revolt
😕 Not something touched on by the NIC report . . . You mean, more than electoral revolt? There’s been no **real** sign of that here since 1865 – not even in the Depression or the '60s (though some people mistakenly perceived revolutionary situations at the time).
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### Author:  [@Don\_t\_Call\_Me\_Shirley](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Don_t_Call_Me_Shirley)
#### Post date: [November 21, 2008, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/4 "2008-11-21T14:52:11Z")
I like the part where he says that states are in danger of being taken over and run by criminal networks.
Sorry, buddy, that already happened. See the US for the past 8 years.
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### Author:  [@Sinaijon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sinaijon)
#### Post date: [November 21, 2008, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/5 "2008-11-21T15:38:52Z")
> [@](#):
>
> “Global Trends 2025: A World Transformed” warns that the spread of western democratic capitalism cannot be taken for granted, as it was by George Bush and America’s neoconservatives.
I don’t think this follows. What part of forcibly invading a country and forcibly setting up a western democratic capitalist government qualifies as taking the spread of democracy for granted?
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### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [November 21, 2008, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/6 "2008-11-21T15:57:07Z")
> [@Sinaijon](#):
>
> I don’t think this follows. What part of forcibly invading a country and forcibly setting up a western democratic capitalist government qualifies as taking the spread of democracy for granted?
I think they’re referring to the whole [_End of History_](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_End_of_History_and_the_Last_Man) isn’t-it-obvious triumphalism thing.
Stalin imposed Communism on Eastern Europe by force of Soviet arms; that doesn’t mean he didn’t believe in the natural workings of the Marxist historical dialectic.
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### Author:  [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)
#### Post date: [November 21, 2008, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/7 "2008-11-21T15:59:42Z")
> [@Sinaijon](#):
>
> I don’t think this follows. What part of forcibly invading a country and forcibly setting up a western democratic capitalist government qualifies as taking the spread of democracy for granted?
The naive quixotic belief that spreading democracy is simply a matter of deposing dictators. That _of course_ democracy is what people will default to once they’re rescued from the purely artificial situation of despot rule. :rolleyes:
If Mexico can at times appear to be on the verge of becoming a narcostate, what prospect does that hold for the rest of the developing world?
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### Author:  [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)
#### Post date: [November 21, 2008, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/8 "2008-11-21T16:09:09Z")
International financiers were convinced that the American model of business and economics was a safe way to grow your countries finances and power. They suddenly have to defend their actions to the people, many who did not believe . Their economic systems have been threatened.
Who is going to trust the US now? Also most countries object to our militaristic expansion .
We are torturers now. What is to there to recommend in our model now?
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### Author:  [@New\_Beginning](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/New_Beginning)
#### Post date: [November 21, 2008, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/9 "2008-11-21T17:49:15Z")
> [@gonzomax](#):
>
> Who is going to trust the US now?
No one needs to trust anyone. The commercial paradigm spearheaded by the United States can either be repaired and made to work, or it can’t, in which case why would we want it anyway. The proof will be in how this turns out and we’ll learn from there and move on.
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### Author:  [@Merkwurdigliebe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merkwurdigliebe)
#### Post date: [November 21, 2008, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/10 "2008-11-21T18:00:37Z")
See, maybe if we hadn’t been so busy re-assuring ourselves that we were the greatest nation in the history of the universe and deeply chastising everyone who might have suggested something that might have deviated in the slightest, we could have been busy preparing for a more difficult 21st Century.
We still have the opportunity to make a large impact on the future. We have the potential to invest in science and new high-tech infrastructure. Maybe if we would pour lots of resources into science and technology we can just work our way out of the problem. I would be more than willing to do my part, the problem is if the rest of the goddamned country can realize the pickle of the situation that we’re in and the amount of effort it will take to overcome it.
Like most I’m terrified about the financial crisis, and I’m at a financially weak point of my life, but on the other hand, I’m going to enjoy our comeuppance as it will inevitably lead to a more realistic worldview that we so desperately need.
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### Author:  [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)
#### Post date: [November 21, 2008, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/11 "2008-11-21T18:07:14Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#):
>
> I must say, all that sounds very . . . believable. Any reason to be skeptical?
Because these predictions are generally wrong or at best to vague to be useful?
I predict that over the next 20 years, we will see political instability, conflicts over the distribution of scarce natural resources, political and religeous strife and threats to the hedgemony of the United States as the sole superpower. Why can I make these predictions? Well…tradition mostly.
> [@Don't Call Me Shirley](#):
>
> I like the part where he says that states are in danger of being taken over and run by criminal networks.
>
> Sorry, buddy, that already happened. See the US for the past 8 years.
I guess that’s what’s great about those kinds of predictions. People can see what they want to see in them, even if they are fantasy.
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### Author:  [@ivylass](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ivylass)
#### Post date: [November 21, 2008, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/12 "2008-11-21T18:09:19Z")
I believe it.
Attributed to Alexander Tyler, who was talking about the Athenian Republic:
\*“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves money from the public treasure. From that moment on the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most money from the public treasury, with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world’s great civilizations has been two hundred years. These nations have progressed through the following sequence: from bondage to spiritual faith, from spiritual faith to great courage, from courage to liberty, from liberty to abundance, from abundance to selfishness, from selfishness to complacency from complacency to apathy, from apathy to dependency, from dependency back to bondage.” \*
I believe we have offically moved from apathy to dependency.
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### Author:  [@Merkwurdigliebe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merkwurdigliebe)
#### Post date: [November 21, 2008, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/13 "2008-11-21T18:25:18Z")
> [@ivylass](#):
>
> I believe we have offically moved from apathy to dependency.
Yes, our problems are clearly caused by rampant socialism. :dubious:
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### Author:  [@sailor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sailor)
#### Post date: [November 21, 2008, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/14 "2008-11-21T18:33:42Z")
America’s share of the world economy has been steadily decreasing since the end of WWII and America’s influence has also been slowing decreasing in the last couple of decades as Europe and Asia grew in influence. But I believe that when historians look back they will point at GW Bush as a time when America’s position in the world suffered the most dramatic decrease.
I believe in 25 years it will be very clear that America will then be a powerful economic player but behind China and Europe and in the league of other nations.
Now, I believe the USA can learn to play nice with others and assume its new role in a multipolar world or it can try to refuse to acknowledge the inevitable and be dragged into the new situation against it’s will which would be disastrous. Most empires have refused to adapt and so far America is doing the same.
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### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [November 21, 2008, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/15 "2008-11-21T19:39:31Z")
> [@ivylass](#):
>
> I believe it.
>
> Attributed to Alexander Tyler, who was talking about the Athenian Republic:
>
> \*“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves money from the public treasure. From that moment on the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most money from the public treasury, with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world’s great civilizations has been two hundred years. These nations have progressed through the following sequence: from bondage to spiritual faith, from spiritual faith to great courage, from courage to liberty, from liberty to abundance, from abundance to selfishness, from selfishness to complacency from complacency to apathy, from apathy to dependency, from dependency back to bondage.” \*
>
> I believe we have offically moved from apathy to dependency.
:rolleyes: _sigh_[Not that shit again.](http://www.snopes.com/politics/quotes/tyler.asp)
[Alexander Tytler](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Tytler) (not Tyler) never wrote that, and he would have been dead wrong if he had. (Robert Heinlein **did** say something to the same effect, with more brevity, and he was dead wrong too.) Some republics and democracies in history have self-destructed by various means; some have been destroyed by foreign conquest. **No** democracy has ever self-destructed by way of the mob voting itself largesse from the treasury. See [this thread.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=461915) It’s all pure RW UL.
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### Author:  [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)
#### Post date: [November 21, 2008, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/16 "2008-11-21T20:37:13Z")
Again with the fucking China and India. In terms of GDP, the US is still larger than the next 4 countries combined, of which China is only 4th behind Japan and Germany. India is like 12th.
The EU is not a single country like the US. It’s a hodgepodge of countries sharing the same currency and some institutions that link them together.
25 years ago they were predicting that Japan would be ruling the world. How did that work out?
I don’t hold a lot of stock in these predictions.
Obama should do what he is supposed to do. Focus on strengthening our country through policies that make sense and are just.
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### Author:  [@Tom\_Tildrum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Tildrum)
#### Post date: [November 21, 2008, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/17 "2008-11-21T20:40:15Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#):
>
> Any reason to be skeptical?
Has the accuracy of the US intelligence community in recent years given us a basis to regard their analyses as reliable?
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### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [November 21, 2008, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/18 "2008-11-21T20:46:40Z")
> [@msmith537](#):
>
> 25 years ago they were predicting that Japan would be ruling the world.
Eh? Who predicted **that?**
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### Author:  [@Dob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dob)
#### Post date: [November 21, 2008, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/19 "2008-11-21T20:57:12Z")
> [@](#):
>
> Has the accuracy of the US intelligence community in recent years given us a basis to regard their analyses as reliable?
Ha! Good point.
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### Author:  [@threemae](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/threemae)
#### Post date: [November 21, 2008, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/20 "2008-11-21T22:18:23Z")
> [@msmith537](#):
>
> Because these predictions are generally wrong or at best to vague to be useful?
Right. Let’s take a look at ye’ olde Gobal Trends 2010 report from fall, 1996, revised in 1997:
[http://www.dni.gov/nic/special\_globaltrends2010.html](http://www.dni.gov/nic/special_globaltrends2010.html)
[QUOTE=Global Trends 2010]
First, European governments will be absorbed by the need to renegotiate the social contract, i.e., the entitlement programs of the social welfare state hammered out in the post-1945 period. This is not a choice but a necessity: a large, aging population sits atop a shrinking labor pool and declining birth rates, unemployment remains chronic, and growth rates are projected at 2-3 percent per year at best–acceptable by historical standards (as well as the standards of other countries) but short of public expectations. Labor market rigidities and lack of productivity growth will strengthen protectionist tendencies.
…
The Chinese central government will continue to have difficulties collecting revenues to fund its programs. With 70 percent of its population still in agriculture, China has a long way to go to develop a modern economy on a nationwide basis.
…
The next 15 years will witness the transformation of North Korea and resulting elimination of military tensions on the peninsula. The subsequent US security presence in the region will be a function both of how the transition on the peninsula occurs and the threat perceptions of regional actors thereafter.
…
In contrast, South Africa probably will be a successful regional leader, able to use diplomatic, political, economic and military leverage to help underwrite order in southern Africa. Its advanced economic and banking structures will serve as a transit point for investment in southern Africa. While President Mandela’s continuing contribution cannot be minimized, succession to a post-Mandela South Africa will be smooth in contrast to succession in other African countries.
[/QUOTE]
I’m cherry-picking a bit here. On the whole I’d say the report is pretty good and generally rings true, but then again that’s true only so long as there hasn’t been a sudden change in inflection in various global trends.
They have not and cannot now predict the surprises.
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