# National Intelligence Council predicts end of U.S. dominance **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 21, 2008, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819 "2008-11-21T14:17:32Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Algher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Algher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Algher)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2008, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/21 "2008-11-21T23:32:30Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Eh? Who predicted **that?** Most of the business magazines of the 80s had articles on it, along with the horror stories when Japanese interests purchased Rockefeller Center and the Pebble Beach golf course. The US is fine, and can easily recover. If we can find a way to get out of our foreign military endeavors quickly, and close a shit load of foriegn military bases - we will find our budget deficit shrinking. Clean up the US budget, US debt continues to be a good buy, and US corporate stocks and bonds go back to being a good investment. Add in the continued ability of the US to attract people from around the world and we can still keep our place near, if not at, the top of the economic food chain. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2008, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/22 "2008-11-22T01:21:56Z")
While China is about to hit a Dust Bowl issue. As well as a bunch of other things that make me predict a major war or other massive social unrest issue in… nine years and counting down. ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2008, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/23 "2008-11-22T03:03:01Z")
> [@threemae](#): > > Right. Let’s take a look at ye’ olde Gobal Trends 2010 report from fall, 1996, revised in 1997: > [http://www.dni.gov/nic/special\_globaltrends2010.html](http://www.dni.gov/nic/special_globaltrends2010.html) > > I’m cherry-picking a bit here. On the whole I’d say the report is pretty good and generally rings true, but then again that’s true only so long as there hasn’t been a sudden change in inflection in various global trends. But none of those things ring true. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2008, 3:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/24 "2008-11-22T03:06:17Z")
It’s all relative. It’s not so much that our power is declining as other people’s power is rising. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2008, 3:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/25 "2008-11-22T03:57:36Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > I must say, all that sounds very . . . believable. Any reason to be skeptical? PNAC will save us!!! 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Justin\_Bailey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/justin_bailey/32/8792_2.png) [@Justin\_Bailey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Justin_Bailey)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2008, 7:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/26 "2008-11-22T07:34:31Z")
[QUOTE=National Intelligence Council] Looking ahead to 2025, the NIC (which coordinates analysis from all the US intelligence agencies), foresees a fragmented world, where conflict over scarce resources is on the rise, poorly contained by “ramshackle” international institutions, while nuclear proliferation, particularly in the Middle East, and even nuclear conflict grow more likely. [/QUOTE] Congratulations, you’ve just cited a report that used the opening to **Mad Max** as their prediction for the future. Dibs on the naked biker chick in the tent once **The Road Warrior** comes to pass! ---
**Author:** ![threemae](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/5f9b8f/32.png) [@threemae](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/threemae)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2008, 9:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/27 "2008-11-22T09:21:42Z")
> [@msmith537](#): > > But none of those things ring true. To clarify, these are the points that I think proved least accurate. If you go back and read the rest of the report, most of it is more accurate than the quoted sections. ---
**Author:** ![wmfellows](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/c2a13f/32.png) [@wmfellows](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wmfellows)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2008, 12:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/28 "2008-11-22T12:39:19Z")
> [@Sinaijon](#): > > I don’t think this follows. What part of forcibly invading a country and forcibly setting up a western democratic capitalist government qualifies as taking the spread of democracy for granted? When did this occur, I seem to have missed it. ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2008, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/29 "2008-11-22T15:02:23Z")
> [@threemae](#): > > To clarify, these are the points that I think proved least accurate. If you go back and read the rest of the report, most of it is more accurate than the quoted sections. Well, yeah. Some things will be accurate. Some wil not. Some will be kinda accurate. I mean I think it’s obvious that China and India will continue to grow. How that will manifest itself in terms of the world power structure, not so obvious. Bush kind of squandered a lot of our goodwill and influence, but maybe Obama can get a lot of it back. Who knows? And I’m sure energy will continue to be an issue. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2008, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/30 "2008-11-22T15:15:50Z")
Predictions of the future, no matter how authoritative, are wild guesses. You cannot put any stock into ANYONE, no matter how smart they seem or claim to be, who says they know how the world will be in 2025. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2008, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/31 "2008-11-22T22:49:58Z")
> [@wmfellows](#): > > When did this occur, I seem to have missed it. It was **attempted** in Iraq. (The actual result is an institution that was indeed elected, but is not exactly a government – too ineffectual to be considered one.) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 26, 2008, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/32 "2008-11-26T01:53:12Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Predictions of the future, no matter how authoritative, are wild guesses. You cannot put any stock into ANYONE, no matter how smart they seem or claim to be, who says they know how the world will be in 2025. “It’s hard to make predictions, especially when they’re about the future.” – Dan Quayle (or was it Yogi Berra?) ---
**Author:** ![sinical\_brit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/48db29/32.png) [@sinical\_brit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sinical_brit)\ **Post date:** [November 26, 2008, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/33 "2008-11-26T14:44:12Z")
End of US dominance? I think this is the beginning of the end for the USA. Everything you hold dear is evaporating before your eyes: Your democratic process was shown to be a sham in 2000. A feeling of security due to geographical location, was flushed away in sept 2001. Iraq demonstrated that your great elected leaders and once noble media, conspired to lie to you about the most serious of issues. Liberty, freedom and the need for due process went out the window with Guantanimo / rendition. Your use of torture took away the moral high ground you thought you occupied. The banking crisis has shown that freemarket / capitalist ideal that drives your economy is nothing more that a mirage. Non of your power elite either understand or can fix it. By the time your economy had recovered from the housing, banking and credit crisis, it will all be too late. China will be top dog economically, Iran / Syria will be the power brokers in the M.E. Europe will be looking east , not west. You will still have your millitary, and you will maintain it regardless of your economy - think USSR in the 80s. But your economy is going to be screwed for a decade or two to come. I think the next step for the US is to use some sort of ‘modern’ nuke against someone in the next 5 years, as a dick swinging exercise. Its all you will have left. You made a castle built on sand. Nice try but its over. New versions of govement will rise - like Chinas curious mix of capitalism and communism. They will then try to project their world view around the place - like the US has done ( ‘if you arnt with us, youre against us’ etc ). It wont work either. BTW i think that Britain is just as fct, but we are now well used to our diminishing power on the world stage. Why do you think we need to renew Trident? Its all we have left too ! ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 26, 2008, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/34 "2008-11-26T22:50:37Z")
> [@sinical\_brit](#): > > Your democratic process was shown to be a sham in 2000. We got better. ---
**Author:** ![sinical\_brit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/48db29/32.png) [@sinical\_brit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sinical_brit)\ **Post date:** [November 27, 2008, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/35 "2008-11-27T13:19:57Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > We got better. Only because it wasnt close. BTW - i realise that my last post was a tad - well - negative. Think i had too much coffee. I do think its true though… ---
**Author:** ![Lust4Life](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ecc23a/32.png) [@Lust4Life](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lust4Life)\ **Post date:** [November 27, 2008, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/36 "2008-11-27T15:18:58Z")
iremember a few years ago predictions that Brazil would become a global superpower,overtaking the West. Still hasn’t happened. ---
**Author:** ![sailor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a587f6/32.png) [@sailor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sailor)\ **Post date:** [November 27, 2008, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/37 "2008-11-27T15:35:19Z")
> [@Lust4Life](#): > > iremember a few years ago predictions that Brazil would become a global superpower,overtaking the West. > Still hasn’t happened. Some predictions are more probable than others. I also remember predictions of the end of the world and the second coming of JC. On the other hand the diminishing relative weight of the USA in the world is a trend which has been going on for some decades now and which is clearly accelerating. It could be that it will turn around but all indicators are not in that direction. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [November 27, 2008, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/38 "2008-11-27T16:29:29Z")
This mess is our own doing. We should not be in this position. The financiers not only corrupted our economic system but the snake oil salesmen convinced many other bankers across the world to follow their model. There are some powerful and rich people who are pissed. We have not shown that we will survive this mess yet. We are in a battle to save our economy. Other countries who did not dream this mess up are in trouble due to us. We are not going to get much love. ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [November 28, 2008, 1:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/39 "2008-11-28T13:15:38Z")
I agree completely…the fact is, we (the USA) cannot police the world anymore. take Somalia: It is NOT our job to root out the pirates and keep the Indian Ocean safe. This is something for the regional powers (India, Pakistan, SA, Autralia) to fix. second: much has been ,made of US financial irresponsibility: the fact is, we are (by our profligate ways) keeping the world from recession. So, lets us STOP importing from China-we will see how long it take the EU to erect trade barriers against the fllod of Chinese goods that have no market in the USA. Third: let’s cut a deal with putin-we keep our noses out of the caucasus, and eastern europe, and they stay out of the Western Hemisphere. Pissing off the russians will only cause us grief. ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [November 28, 2008, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819/40 "2008-11-28T14:45:22Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > We got better. Yep. 2000 was so last century. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-intelligence-council-predicts-end-of-u-s-dominance/473819.md?page=3)