# National Review devotes an entire issue to "Against Trump" **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 22, 2016, 7:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-review-devotes-an-entire-issue-to-against-trump/743868 "2016-01-22T07:16:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Mr.Nylock](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/77aa72/32.png) [@Mr.Nylock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Nylock)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-review-devotes-an-entire-issue-to-against-trump/743868/41 "2016-01-22T19:58:46Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Lest there be any confusion, _I_ think anyone who votes for either is stupid or insane. Or a loser! ---
**Author:** ![CalMeacham](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/calmeacham/32/35_2.png) [@CalMeacham](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CalMeacham)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-review-devotes-an-entire-issue-to-against-trump/743868/42 "2016-01-22T20:05:48Z")
> [@ElderSign](#): > > [Rolling Stone hates him too](http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-year-the-trump-laughter-died-20151229). What does it say if the left and right hate someone running? That person is truly an outsider. Not sure why Trump makes so many people nervous, yet Clinton does not. > > As far as Trump being a stereotypical right winger…no. He’s a New Yorker at heart, which means he is a conservative Democrat, for the lack of a better label. Following links from that cite can take you to this Vanity Fair piece: > **[Steel Traps and Short Fingers](https://www.vanityfair.com/culture/2015/10/graydon-carter-donald-trump)** > > In his November editor’s letter, Graydon Carter reveals the presidential candidate’s thin-skinned response to a favorite 25-year-old epithet. …in which Graydon Carter claims that Trump is still bristling over being called a “short-fingered vulgrarian” a quarter of a century ago: > [@](#): > > Like so many bullies, Trump has skin of gossamer. He thinks nothing of saying the most hurtful thing about someone else, but when he hears a whisper that runs counter to his own vainglorious self-image, he coils like a caged ferret. Just to drive him a little bit crazy, I took to referring to him as a “short-fingered vulgarian” in the pages of Spy magazine. That was more than a quarter of a century ago. To this day, I receive the occasional envelope from Trump. There is always a photo of him—generally a tear sheet from a magazine. On all of them he has circled his hand in gold Sharpie in a valiant effort to highlight the length of his fingers. I almost feel sorry for the poor fellow because, to me, the fingers still look abnormally stubby. The most recent offering arrived earlier this year, before his decision to go after the Republican presidential nomination. Like the other packages, this one included a circled hand and the words, also written in gold Sharpie: “See, not so short!” I sent the picture back by return mail with a note attached, saying, “Actually, quite short.” Which I can only assume gave him fits. What’s really interesting, of course, is that the part of “short-fingered vulgarian” Trump objects to and is trying to disprove is the “short-fingered” part. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-review-devotes-an-entire-issue-to-against-trump/743868/43 "2016-01-22T20:59:25Z")
Future historians will see this issue of _National Review_ as the last feeble cries of intellectually bankrupt and anti-national fusionist Kochservatism who sold out the Republic and her citizenry in favour of the billionaires and the warmongers. ---
**Author:** ![kayaker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kayaker/32/441_2.png) [@kayaker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kayaker)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-review-devotes-an-entire-issue-to-against-trump/743868/44 "2016-01-22T21:04:19Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > Future historians will see this issue of _National Review_ as the last feeble cries of intellectually bankrupt and anti-national fusionist Kochservatism who sold out the Republic and her citizenry in favour of the billionaires and the warmongers. Of course they’ll breath ammonium gas and have their eyes on the ends of long stalks also. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-review-devotes-an-entire-issue-to-against-trump/743868/45 "2016-01-22T21:31:28Z")
> [@2ManyTacos](#): > > Of course the nomination is Trump’s to lose. His supporters do. not. CARE. what the establishment says of him, and anything done to smear Trump just makes his followers pine for him even more. True, but not inconsistent with what I said. His supporters alone are not going to get him elected. > [@2ManyTacos](#): > > This election is not going to Bush or Rubio, and frankly I’m sick as Hell of all the pundits saying that one of those two is “inevitable.” The major thing that’s changed is that Bush is turning out to be weak and witless, but Rubio seems to be emerging as a polished and articulate extremist, which makes him all the more scary. He’s the one poised to pick up the Cruz followers and probably many of Trump’s. > [@Lantern](#): > > The National Review doesn’t need to win over Trump supporters who are around 35% of the primary electorate. They just need to prevent too many of the other 65% going over to him when the race settles down with 2-3 contestants. > > Trump has lasted far longer than anyone expected but the establishment still has some cards to play. One is a concerted attack on him from conservative news outlets like the NR. The other is a full-blown negative ad campaign attacking his many weaknesses. That will also happen some time in the next month. This race is far from over. Remember a big chunk of primary voters are only starting to pay serious attention. > > Trump will thrive as long as the “establishment lane” is crowded. However at some point not too long after the NH primary it will likely be down to one establishment candidate against Trump and Cruz. That’s when the real contest begins. Well said, and that’s what I think, too. **BobLibDem** ’s quote from Michael Medved is spot-on, too. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-review-devotes-an-entire-issue-to-against-trump/743868/46 "2016-01-22T21:42:19Z")
National Review isn’t quite the establishment, at least in this decade. And this isn’t really a take-down: it’s more like a marker, a line in the sand. Trump would govern disastrously, and NR wants to wash his hands of the guy. [1] Kevin Drum: [INDENT]Every editor in the world knows that the easiest way to fill pages is to corral a bunch of writers from the ol’ office Rolodex and ask them each to write 300 words on some topic. Every editor also knows that unless there’s some serious adult supervision, these “symposiums” are usually flaccid and unpersuasive. Lots of contributors will repeat what others have said. They mostly just bang something out instead of working on tight pieces that make crisp points. Some of them just toss out a few bromides and email it off.[/INDENT] Drum continues that if they really wanted to rip Trump a new one they would make a list of weaknesses that would even worry his supporters (e.g. Trump was a lousy businessman, but a great sales guy) and assign one writer to each weakness. Something like that would be taken seriously. A baker’s dozen of 300 word chin strokers will not, least of all by the GOP base. > **[I review NR's "Against Trump" issue](https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/01/i-review-nrs-against-trump-issue/)** > > Everybody is writing today about National Review’s big “Against Trump” issue. I did that last night, so today I want to review their effort. I give it a D+. This isn’t my usual liberal carping at NR. Normally I carp because I disagree with them, but... Trump has real vulnerabilities. Yet none in the GOP establishment are willing to pull out the napalm. [1] Worse, Trump isn’t ideologically reliable. So he’s neither especially electable nor especially attractive to the conservabeast. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-review-devotes-an-entire-issue-to-against-trump/743868/47 "2016-01-22T21:51:46Z")
Brad DeLong, borrowing from Jeet Heer: **Bad blood between Frankenstein and his Monster!** “To be enthusiastically for Limbaugh and Palin… and then to be against Trump… somehow does not compute…” [http://www.bradford-delong.com/2016/01/live-from-the-roasterie-bad-blood-between-frankenstein-and-his-monster-national-review-edition-blogging.html](http://www.bradford-delong.com/2016/01/live-from-the-roasterie-bad-blood-between-frankenstein-and-his-monster-national-review-edition-blogging.html) ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-review-devotes-an-entire-issue-to-against-trump/743868/48 "2016-01-22T21:55:52Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > Future historians will see this issue of _National Review_ as the last feeble cries of intellectually bankrupt and anti-national fusionist Kochservatism who sold out the Republic and her citizenry in favour of the billionaires and the warmongers. How is \*National Review \* discredited by opposing Trump? I would say it is pretty much the opposite - a GOP that would nominate Trump is the sellout. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-review-devotes-an-entire-issue-to-against-trump/743868/49 "2016-01-22T21:57:28Z")
Does not compute indeed. As with most instances of drunken one-upsmanship AKA “Hey y’all, watch _this_!”, it’s all fun and games until somebody gets hurt. Seems like the laugh riot is almost over and the hurt is approaching rapidly. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-review-devotes-an-entire-issue-to-against-trump/743868/50 "2016-01-22T21:59:18Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > How is \*National Review \* discredited by opposing Trump? I would say it is pretty much the opposite - a GOP that would nominate Trump is the sellout. > > Regards, > Shodan They’ve been discredited by the past generation of American history, where Republican policies have served to alienate and impoverish the middle and working classes of this country. If you don’t believe me look at the rise in income inequality, the decline in community ties, rising death rates for the white working-class, and so forth. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-review-devotes-an-entire-issue-to-against-trump/743868/51 "2016-01-22T22:05:30Z")
What does that have to do with repudiating Trump, even if it were true? Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-review-devotes-an-entire-issue-to-against-trump/743868/52 "2016-01-22T23:15:07Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > Remember that Iowa and New Hampshire don’t look like the other 48 states. Winning there is not usually meaningful or predictive. [I beg to differ with you, brother.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=744890) Now it IS true that Iowa and NH don’t look like the other 48 states. This is particularly relevant on the Dem side, where a candidate can win both states by mobilizing a lot of white liberals. (Bernie Sanders just might win both states, and it still wouldn’t pull him even with Hillary.) But it’s a little different on the GOP side, where Iowa and NH represent nearly polar opposite extremes of the GOP. NH is one of the most secular and moderate states in terms of its GOP electorate, while Iowa is a state that can most easily be won by rallying extremely conservative evangelicals. If you win one, it indicates that you’ve got one end or the other of the party behind you. If you win both, you’ve managed to unite both extremes behind you, and are going to be hard to beat. But oddly enough, Iowa and New Hampshire, taken together, are [extremely predictive](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=744890) for _both_ parties. Candidates for the past 40 years have had to win at least one\* to win their party’s nomination, and so a candidate that’s won both wins the nomination. One of these days, this pattern is going to fail, like all patterns that aren’t due to direct causation. Particularly, per the above, Bernie could hit a brick wall after winning both Iowa and New Hampshire. And this pattern has been successfully tested three times since I originally discussed it on this board in 2007: by both parties in 2008, and by the GOP in 2012. \*With one exception that doesn’t exactly contradict the rule: Bill Clinton in 1992, the year there effectively was no Iowa on the Dem side, as everyone else skipped the Hawkeye State and let Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) have an uncontested win. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-review-devotes-an-entire-issue-to-against-trump/743868/53 "2016-01-22T23:24:56Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > How is \*National Review \* discredited by opposing Trump? I would say it is pretty much the opposite - a GOP that would nominate Trump is the sellout. > > Regards, > Shodan [_NR_ is “discredited” by failing to take responsibility for its creation.](http://www.salon.com/2016/01/22/conservatives_in_a_meltdown_national_reviews_confused_against_trump_issue_is_an_amazing_testament_to_the_rights_implosion/) > [@](#): > > Any discerning reader knows that, on some level, you’re meant to root for the monster to turn on Dr. Frankenstein, for the Pied Piper to take the children away, for Satan to finally come for Dr. Faustus. And so it’s impossible not to take pleasure in watching the conservative base come extract its pound of Trump-shaped flesh out of the establishment. > > It’s no mystery why the National Review and their supporters hate Trump. He’s vulgar and embarrassing and he does an even better job of exploiting the right-wing rubes and their racism and their provincialism and their ridiculous sense of oppression than they do. They are, in other words, haters. And Trump dismissed them as the haters they are with ease during his press conference Thursday night where he called the National Review a “dead paper” that almost no one reads anymore. > > This impression is driven home by actually reading the issue. The editors can’t quite seem to decide what their exact objections to Trump are. Is it that he’s driving the right too far in the direction of fascism or that he’s a secret liberal in disguise? Both! Whatever you need to hear! The strategy is argument through overwhelming. They’ll throw everything they’ve got, even contradictory stuff, at the reader and hope the sheer volume of words impresses them enough to vote for Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-review-devotes-an-entire-issue-to-against-trump/743868/54 "2016-01-22T23:28:26Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Where I think he will fail miserably is in being a statesman = governing leader. He has demonstrated pretty much every anti-aptitude and anti-skill needed for that job. > The error many of are making is in thinking we’re electing a leader. Nope. We’re by and large picking a winner on a reality elimination show on an island. All the news media and all the candidates’ blah-blah are all about the horse race itself, and their rank in it. > > Nothing at all is about actual policies, goals, governing platforms, plans, agendas, etc. Other than the very stale “Left = D = handouts & minorities and high taxes. Right = R = Police & military and low taxes” that everybody has already internalized so there’s not much point in harping on about it. > > And IMO Trump is very well placed to come in first on the RNC reality elimination show. QFT. I’ll add that this can happen because the GOP has become almost completely a post-policy party, to the extent that their actual policies aren’t really much more complicated than slogans: _Cut taxes! Get rid of regulations! Give us our guns! No Meskins! No handouts for Those People! Bomb the shit out of this week’s Bad Guys! No more persecution of poor helpless Christians! Take back America / make America great again!_ When policy is watered down to that level, and they all agree on 95% of it anyway, it boils down to repartee and dick-swinging. And Trump is really quite good at both. But he’s just the logical extreme of a party that is very good at politics and winning elections, but doesn’t just suck at policy, it’s abandoned it. ---
**Author:** ![doorhinge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a5b964/32.png) [@doorhinge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doorhinge)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-review-devotes-an-entire-issue-to-against-trump/743868/55 "2016-01-22T23:36:31Z")
> [@ITR\_champion](#): > > National Review devotes an entire issue to “Against Trump” Reply to Thread > > There’s [a lengthy editorial by the editors here](http://www.nationalreview.com/article/430137/donald-trump-conservative-movement-menace). Over [here is a list of shorter pieces](http://www.nationalreview.com/article/430126/donald-trump-conservatives-oppose-nomination) by well-known conservative authors including Glenn Beck, John Podhoretz, Cal Thomas, Mona Charen, Yuval Levin, Thomas Sowell, and others. > > When he first entered the race in June, everyone thought he would monkey around front of the camera for a few days and leave. When he rose to first place in the polls, everyone thought it was just the “silly season” and when voters started thinking seriously, Trump would sink. After every outrageous lie, insults, and preposterous promise of action, the pundits assured us that Trump had finally gone too far and his supporters would finally move away from him. I know of nobody who predicted what would happen correctly; I certainly didn’t predict better than anyone else. > > Now voting begins in 12 days and more and more people are getting the impression that dismissing Trump as an crazed ape with a microphone was not a good idea. It’s looking increasingly like the Republican primary is his to lose, and rather than just expecting him to vanish quietly after awhile, instead the establishment will need an all-out blocking effort that may or may not succeed. Your first mistake is using the term “everyone”. Everyone did not think Trump would simply monkey around in front of a camera. Everyone did not assume that Trump’s would sink. What Trump’s rise in the polls has proven is that the pundits are wrong and that they don’t actually understand what the voters want. Trump draws larger crowds than any other candidate. The pundits chose to ignore that. Trump says that Muslim immigration should be halted UNTIL THE U.S. GOVERNMENT CAN DO A BETTER JOB OF SCREENING THEM. The pundits say Trump wants to deny all Muslims access to the U.S… The pundits lied. The National Review editors don’t seem to understand that the voters are sick and tired of the words and actions of the same old, run-of-the-mill political candidates. The voters are sick and tired of the same old pundits telling them what to think. It appears that the NR editors and authors are the ones who are out of touch with reality. Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump are currently leading in the polls. The pundits are too full of themselves to understand that the voters outnumber the pundits and it’s the voters who are going to decide this election. ---
**Author:** ![Lobohan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobohan/32/79_2.png) [@Lobohan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lobohan)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-review-devotes-an-entire-issue-to-against-trump/743868/56 "2016-01-22T23:45:02Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Nonsense IMO. > > Trump is a salesman. And a darn good one. The essence of salesmanship is discerning what problem the customer has (or can be convinced he/she has), then promising to solve it, then pocketing the commission. He’s not a good salesman. He’s a swaggering cunt. That level of confidence is attractive, but I’m pretty sure Trump couldn’t make a living selling cars or timeshares, if you stripped his fame and wealth away. He’s so ignorant that he has no self-doubt. Which is why dumb people think he should be in charge. They assume he knows what he’s doing. A Trump follower doesn’t need to hear how he’ll “make America great again” they just trust that Trump will do it. > [@](#): > > Actually delivering the solution is somebody else’s problem. As is collecting the revenue to pay the commission from. > > As \*\*Wesley Clark \*\*says Trump is demonstrating being a very skilful politician = election winner. > > Where I think he will fail miserably is in being a statesman = governing leader. He has demonstrated pretty much every anti-aptitude and anti-skill needed for that job. > The error many of are making is in thinking we’re electing a leader. Nope. We’re by and large picking a winner on a reality elimination show on an island. All the news media and all the candidates’ blah-blah are all about the horse race itself, and their rank in it. > > Nothing at all is about actual policies, goals, governing platforms, plans, agendas, etc. Other than the very stale “Left = D = handouts & minorities and high taxes. Right = R = Police & military and low taxes” that everybody has already internalized so there’s not much point in harping on about it. > > And IMO Trump is very well placed to come in first on the RNC reality elimination show. If the GOP base weren’t composed of ignorant, misinformed, angry people, Trump would have no success at all. He’s just a key that fits the lock of the GOP base. It’s not that he’s some brilliant strategy expert, he’s just resonating with the degenerate yokels that vote in GOP primaries. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-review-devotes-an-entire-issue-to-against-trump/743868/57 "2016-01-22T23:47:26Z")
> [@doorhinge](#): > > Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump are currently leading in the polls. The pundits are too full of themselves to understand that the voters outnumber the pundits and it’s the voters who are going to decide this election. So your prediction is that Trump will get the nomination and then, no doubt, move on to win the general election and the presidency? Please say yes! That would be so fine a prediction on so many levels! 😃 ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-review-devotes-an-entire-issue-to-against-trump/743868/58 "2016-01-22T23:51:07Z")
> [@doorhinge](#): > > ;;; UNTIL THE U.S. GOVERNMENT CAN DO A BETTER JOB OF SCREENING THEM. The pundits say Trump wants to deny all Muslims access to the U.S… The pundits lied… Keeping civil war refugees out until they can be thoroughly screened will effectively lock them out entirely. Documents? Well, good, how do you know they are not forged? We’re already expecting the Bad Guys to do that, so how do you tell? Address a letter to the crater and rubble that used to be the Hall of Records? ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-review-devotes-an-entire-issue-to-against-trump/743868/59 "2016-01-22T23:52:28Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > As \*\*Wesley Clark \*\*says Trump is demonstrating being a very skilful politician = election winner. Name one election that he’s won. > [@RTFirefly](#): > > But oddly enough, Iowa and New Hampshire, taken together, are [extremely predictive](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=744890) for _both_ parties. Candidates for the past 40 years have had to win at least one\* to win their party’s nomination, and so a candidate that’s won both wins the nomination. I was referring just to the Republican history, and I’ll argue that the history you gave in that other thread supports my case. Saying that Iowa and New Hampshire are predictive because one extreme or the other wins would be laughable in any other context. “Buy my two $100 million market newsletters. One says Apple will dominate the market, the other says Microsoft will. And one is always right!” The only winners are Iowa and New Hampshire. Bah and humbug. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-review-devotes-an-entire-issue-to-against-trump/743868/60 "2016-01-22T23:55:49Z")
> [@doorhinge](#): > > Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump are currently leading in the polls. Factual correction: Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders nationally and consistently: [2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination Polls | RealClearPolling](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html) Clinton generally leads in Iowa, though polling there is trickier due to the caucus system. The 1/15-1/20 CNN poll is an outlier. [RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html) Sanders does lead Clinton in New Hampshire, unsurprisingly as Sanders is a fixture in the next-door Vermont: [RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-review-devotes-an-entire-issue-to-against-trump/743868.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/national-review-devotes-an-entire-issue-to-against-trump/743868.md?page=4)