# NBA 2019-2020 Season **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [September 23, 2019, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nba-2019-2020-season/840732 "2019-09-23T23:58:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2020, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nba-2019-2020-season/840732/203 "2020-01-31T15:28:04Z")
> [@Dr\_Paprika](#): > > To add more grist to the mill, you could say the Raptors have an amazing away record, maybe second best. It’s an important statistic since in the playoffs roughly half your games aren’t at home. > > Sure. A bit vainglorious. But **RickJay** , what would you say are the Raptors chance of making it to the final? The Bucks? If the playoffs started today: ROUND 1: Toronto would play Orlando. The Magic beating the Raptors in a seven game series would be one of the most stunning upsets in NBA playoff history; I would say the Raptors are 99% likely to win this series. ROUND 2: Toronto would play either Boston or Philadelphia, depending which team wins, and that is quite unclear. Either is a significant test for the Raptors; they are both outstanding. I’d estimate they have roughly a 55% chance of surviving this round. ROUND 3: This is 90% likely to be against Milwaukee, and 10% likely to be against Miami or Indiana. I think Toronto is maybe 30% likely to beat the Bucks, and 60% likely to beat the Heat or Pacers. If I’m doing my math right, that gives the Raps an 18% shot at the Finals - clearly the second best chance of any team in the East. :If the playioffs started today" is a HUGE qualifier, though. Injuries change everything of course, but seeding matters too. If Toronto finishes third instead of second, then they play a really good team in Round 1 instead of Orlando, and go from “near certain to annihilate the Magic or the Nets or maybe the Bulls” to “Damn, tough series.” ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2020, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nba-2019-2020-season/840732/204 "2020-02-01T18:04:52Z")
That seems reasonable. Congratulations to Nick Nurse. Coaching the All-Star game after a tenth consecutive win! The Raptors need to get better at third quarter defence, though, not every game should be so close. ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2020, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nba-2019-2020-season/840732/205 "2020-02-02T20:31:42Z")
Looks like Lillard has made his peace. The guy has turned into a terror in the western conference, setting franchise and NBA records for scoring and combos. He’s averaging in the high 40s over the past half dozen games, with Whiteside churning out double-doubles in every game and blocking shots like a madman. He even blocked Gobert in the Jazz game, which is no small feat. His scoring is also up. The team seems to be clicking on both offense and defense, defeating LA, Utah, GS, Indiana and Houston. Maybe they’ll actually make the playoffs, barring any more catastrophic injuries. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2020, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nba-2019-2020-season/840732/206 "2020-02-03T02:17:06Z")
Toronto won their eleventh straight game over the Chicago Bulls despite Gasol and Powell being hurt - Powell for at least four weeks. Terence Davis, a bench warmer not long ago, scored 31 points. Not a rising star? C’mon. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2020, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nba-2019-2020-season/840732/207 "2020-02-03T19:12:06Z")
> [@Chefguy](#): > > Looks like Lillard has made his peace. The guy has turned into a terror in the western conference, setting franchise and NBA records for scoring and combos. He’s averaging in the high 40s over the past half dozen games, with Whiteside churning out double-doubles in every game and blocking shots like a madman. He even blocked Gobert in the Jazz game, which is no small feat. His scoring is also up. The team seems to be clicking on both offense and defense, defeating LA, Utah, GS, Indiana and Houston. Maybe they’ll actually make the playoffs, barring any more catastrophic injuries. I think it’s much likelier than not. They only have to pass Memphis, and I am really, really convinced Portland is a way better team. I note today that 538 still holds the Raptors as a 2% chance of winning it all, while they have the Sixers at 17% and the Celtics at 5%. What is fascinating about this is their own system projects that he Raptors will finish second - which would mean they get an easy first round matchup and the Sixers get a tough one. I cannot for the life of me figure out how a reasonable analysis of those teams makes the Sixers more than twice as likely as Boston and Toronto COMBINED to win it all. The Sixers aren’t the Knicks, but I watch them play and I just do not see an elite squad. I’m also not sure when 538 is so down on the Heat, who they consider to have effectively no chance at all. ---
**Author:** ![borschevsky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/97f17d/32.png) [@borschevsky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/borschevsky)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2020, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nba-2019-2020-season/840732/208 "2020-02-03T21:14:18Z")
They’re running two different prediction models, and the models are completely at odds with each other when it comes to the Raptors and 76ers (and a few other teams). The RAPTOR model gives the 76ers a 17% chance of winning the title, and the Raptors 2%, as you say. But the ELO model gives the Raptors 16% and the 76ers 2%. RAPTOR is a player-based model, so it must be putting a huge value on Embiid or something like that. One other interesting thing about the ELO projections is that the Raps are 25% to win the East, so they’re being projected as a pretty strong favorite in the finals, should they make it there. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2020, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nba-2019-2020-season/840732/209 "2020-02-04T01:14:48Z")
I find RAPTOR baffling. I’ve tried to make sense of it, and realize it’s based on their player ratings, but it seems really disconnected from A) Any sense of how basketball players work together and B) Any other analysis of the effectiveness of the players we’re talking about. I mean, I am pretty sure there is some reason RAPTOR thinks the Sixers are the bee’s knees. I just can’t figure that out. The ELO rating makes far more sense. There is simply no way to ignore the difference between finishing second and finishing not second, when finishing second means a much, much poorer first round opponent. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2020, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nba-2019-2020-season/840732/210 "2020-02-04T16:45:44Z")
Statistical models are complex, and probably considered “works in progress” by the site owner. Because of the focus on stars like Curry or LeBron, it might have made sense to highlight players. I think it’s an inferior model - because of injuries, subtle team interactions and rising stars. A guy like Davis was undrafted and didn’t play much, so had few statistics. Called into action, after a few games he just scored over thirty points. Perhaps out of spite for not being named a US rising star. I still give the Raptors a 25% shot at making the finals as optimistic as this may sound. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2020, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nba-2019-2020-season/840732/211 "2020-02-06T13:57:10Z")
11-0 run to end the game when down by 10. I’ve never seen the Raptors do that before. Actually, I’m not sure I’ve seen anyone do that before. ---
**Author:** ![borschevsky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/97f17d/32.png) [@borschevsky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/borschevsky)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2020, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nba-2019-2020-season/840732/212 "2020-02-06T15:16:11Z")
That’s a great win for the Raptors. It does seem to me that there are more late comebacks than there used to be, maybe because the increased prevalence of three-point shooting is causing more variance. ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2020, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nba-2019-2020-season/840732/213 "2020-02-06T15:35:10Z")
The Blazers lost their momentum and suffered a severe beatdown by Denver the other night. They were down 26 at the half and never recovered. Denver had a swarming defense and everything POR threw up clanged off the rim. Whiteside’s impressive string of double-doubles was broken, with the rest of the team looking completely hapless. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2020, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nba-2019-2020-season/840732/214 "2020-02-06T15:51:59Z")
> [@borschevsky](#): > > That’s a great win for the Raptors. It does seem to me that there are more late comebacks than there used to be, maybe because the increased prevalence of three-point shooting is causing more variance. It’d be interesting to do a study of this, but surely it HAS to be true? ---
**Author:** ![drm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a88e57/32.png) [@drm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drm)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2020, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nba-2019-2020-season/840732/215 "2020-02-06T16:49:23Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > It’d be interesting to do a study of this, but surely it HAS to be true? Given the drastic increase in 3s taken over the last half decade, it stands to reason that it would be. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2020, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nba-2019-2020-season/840732/216 "2020-02-06T18:37:56Z")
Google Scholar is good for these sorts of questions. For example, in 2014-15, 71% of teams leading at the midpoint one the game. I just looked at one paper, got better things to do right now. ---
**Author:** ![MortSahlFan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/3bc359/32.png) [@MortSahlFan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MortSahlFan)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2020, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nba-2019-2020-season/840732/217 "2020-02-06T20:44:19Z")
Trade deadline is over (although some come after the bell)… I can’t believe the Cavs traded for Andre Drummond when they have Love and his awful, overbloated contract. The Pistons don’t get anything really, since they have to wait until 2023 for the lesser of a 2nd round pick (since Cavs have two). Pretty cheap for a guy who almost averages 20/20. Minnesota seems to have gotten the better of the deal, unless those picks develop. Then again, they kept getting lottery picks year after year, and never made the playoffs until they got Jimmy Butler. I think it was appeasement towards Towns, who wanted Russell. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2020, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nba-2019-2020-season/840732/218 "2020-02-07T02:36:15Z")
The Raptors did nothing, as expected. Once again people were fretting about Masai Ujiri bolting for the Knicks; this happens every time the Knicks have an opening in the front office. Once again he didn’t take the job, and there was no evidence it was offered. ---
**Author:** ![MortSahlFan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/3bc359/32.png) [@MortSahlFan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MortSahlFan)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2020, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nba-2019-2020-season/840732/219 "2020-02-07T17:06:05Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > The Raptors did nothing, as expected. > > Once again people were fretting about Masai Ujiri bolting for the Knicks; this happens every time the Knicks have an opening in the front office. Once again he didn’t take the job, and there was no evidence it was offered. Were you hoping they’d do something? I think the team they have is really good, underrated. And come playoff time, they have that experience. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2020, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nba-2019-2020-season/840732/220 "2020-02-07T19:23:23Z")
Not really. I don’t think they’re strong at small forward; OG Anunoby is still raw and inconsistent and Norm Powell has been hurt a lot. But there simply wasn’t any obvious trade fit that would not have cost vastly more in the long run than it was worth. I think they have a real shot at repeating and it would have been great to be able to upgrade, but I don’t think they need to mortgage the entire future to take a crack at 2020. This is generally a young team with both a legitimate shot at adding Giannis as a free agent after 2020-2021, and they have to replace Kyle Lowry in a season or two. They need cap space for both, and any upgrade was going to require taking on long term salary. The Raptors are in a position to be one of the best teams in the NBA for years to come, and I wouldn’t want to see that traded away. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2020, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nba-2019-2020-season/840732/221 "2020-02-08T03:55:27Z")
Raps beat the Pacers again, this time in Indianapolis. 13 in a row, the longest streak by a major league sports team in Toronto history. Serge Ibaka is playing the best ball of his career. Every minute is an impact minute. ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2020, 4:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nba-2019-2020-season/840732/222 "2020-02-08T04:56:20Z")
It’s halftime right now in Utah, where the Blazers and Jazz are having an old-fashioned rumble in the jungle. Some tough basketball being played. Blazers lost Simons to a concussion, and Whiteside is on the bench with a contusion. Ariza got tossed in the second quarter for going after a ref, and Mello nearly got into it with an opponent. Blazers are down to seven active players right now and putting up a ferocious fight, leading at the half by 14 points. I hope they can maintain the energy for the second half. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nba-2019-2020-season/840732.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nba-2019-2020-season/840732.md?page=12)