# NC-09 Special **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 9, 2019, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nc-09-special/839934 "2019-09-09T16:20:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2019, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nc-09-special/839934/21 "2019-09-11T00:21:28Z")
If it’s not called by 10, I’ma count that as a win, because it means the race is close in a district that used to be red, which mildly signals that the Dem surge is maintaining. ---
**Author:** ![USCDiver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uscdiver/32/354_2.png) [@USCDiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/USCDiver)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2019, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nc-09-special/839934/22 "2019-09-11T00:22:39Z")
Here’s CNN’s tracker: [North Carolina 9th Congressional District election results](https://www.cnn.com/election/2019/results/north-carolina/house-9-special-election) They’ve already called NC-3 for the Republican (this was to replace long time Rep Walter Jones who died in February). NC-3 is a heavily Red District so the result was not really in question. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2019, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nc-09-special/839934/23 "2019-09-11T00:25:23Z")
I’m ecstatic. Kornaki on MSNBC just ran through McCready’s performance today v. 2018, and he’s exceeding 2018 by 2-3% in every district. With 20% in, McCready is ahead, 54% - Bishop 45%. Looking good for McCready!!! ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2019, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nc-09-special/839934/24 "2019-09-11T00:39:47Z")
They just said that McCready improved his performance by 2.7% in the early voting. It’s all down to election day turnout at this point. Heard it was heavy turnout for this election. This usually favors Dems, but who knows? Currently 52% McCready to 47% Bishop with 24% of votes counted. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2019, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nc-09-special/839934/25 "2019-09-11T00:55:39Z")
[NC Board of Elections](https://er.ncsbe.gov/?election_dt=09/10/2019&county_id=0&office=FED&contest=0) ---
**Author:** ![USCDiver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uscdiver/32/354_2.png) [@USCDiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/USCDiver)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2019, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nc-09-special/839934/26 "2019-09-11T00:55:51Z")
Looks like Union County (just to the east of Charlotte-Mecklenberg Co) is going 60% to Bishop which is propping him up by about 10k votes with 65% reporting. Mecklenberg is a much larger population and, with only 1% reporting, has a heavy McReady lean so far. ---
**Author:** ![mjmlabs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mjmlabs/32/69_2.png) [@mjmlabs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mjmlabs)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2019, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nc-09-special/839934/27 "2019-09-11T01:07:02Z")
With 88 of 210 precincts reporting: Dan McCready (D) 59,013 (49.77%) Dan Bishop ® 58,884 (49.66%) I don’t know enough about the demographics/leanings in the various precincts, nor which precincts are in as of this report … but in my experience, larger precincts tend to be more urban, lean more Democratic, and take longer to report. So this is looking very interesting indeed thus far, based upon … well, nothing other than what’s noted in this thread. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2019, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nc-09-special/839934/28 "2019-09-11T01:16:51Z")
> [@mjmlabs](#): > > With 88 of 210 precincts reporting: > > Dan McCready (D) 59,013 (49.77%) > Dan Bishop (R) 58,884 (49.66%) > > I don’t know enough about the demographics/leanings in the various precincts, nor which precincts are in as of this report … but in my experience, larger precincts tend to be more urban, lean more Democratic, and take longer to report. So this is looking very interesting indeed thus far, based upon … well, nothing other than what’s noted in this thread. Union County is heavily GOP and the second largest county in NC-09 after Mecklenburg County which is heavily D. NYT is reporting 82% of the vote in for Union and 14% of the vote in for Mecklenburg. Mecklenburg comprises part of Charlotte where they also had municipal elections today. This means turnout is probably higher there. All of this is enough to make it appear the GOP candidate could be in trouble. ---
**Author:** ![mjmlabs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mjmlabs/32/69_2.png) [@mjmlabs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mjmlabs)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2019, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nc-09-special/839934/29 "2019-09-11T01:23:48Z")
> [@Icarus](#): > > What is the over/under on Trump claiming the election is rigged? > [@USCDiver](#): > > Since the polling is saying 50/50, I’d say the odds of Trump claiming rigged election are similar and entirely dependent on who wins. > > But that’s not really an over/under… so maybe it should be “What’s the Over/Under on how many days it’ll take Trump to claim rigged election if the Dem wins?” > > For that bet I’d say 2 days. I’m going with “before 9:00 a.m., if it’s been called for McCready by 8:30.” Also taking the Daily Double on the same tweet(s) explaining how he wasn’t on the ballot and yesterday’s in-person rally … uh, didn’t really count, for some reason. :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![mjmlabs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mjmlabs/32/69_2.png) [@mjmlabs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mjmlabs)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2019, 1:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nc-09-special/839934/30 "2019-09-11T01:26:59Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Union County is heavily GOP and the second largest county in NC-09 after Mecklenburg County which is heavily D. NYT is reporting 82% of the vote in for Union and 14% of the vote in for Mecklenburg. Mecklenburg comprises part of Charlotte where they also had municipal elections today. This means turnout is probably higher there. All of this is enough to make it appear the GOP candidate could be in trouble. Thanks for the info/analysis! Like some comedian or another said, “I ain’t superstitious, but I’m a _little_ stitious, so … fingers crossed.” ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2019, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nc-09-special/839934/31 "2019-09-11T01:35:43Z")
Sidebar question: why has it taken so long to have this election? Weren’t the dirty deeds done dirt cheap discovered a long time ago, right after last year’s election? ---
**Author:** ![USCDiver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uscdiver/32/354_2.png) [@USCDiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/USCDiver)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2019, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nc-09-special/839934/32 "2019-09-11T01:44:59Z")
Ok, Union Co is at 100% reporting with about a 12,500 advantage for Bishop giving him a total lead of ~2500. Meanwhile, McReady has a 7500 vote lead in Mecklenberg Co with 54% reporting. If that ratio continues in Mecklenberg, McReady should catch up pretty quickly. ---
**Author:** ![USCDiver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uscdiver/32/354_2.png) [@USCDiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/USCDiver)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2019, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nc-09-special/839934/33 "2019-09-11T01:47:31Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > Sidebar question: why has it taken so long to have this election? Weren’t the dirty deeds done dirt cheap discovered a long time ago, right after last year’s election? They had to have primary elections earlier in the Spring and Summer, but still this ain’t Parliamentary elections where you can vote to hold a general election and get things wrapped up in 6 weeks. ---
**Author:** ![mjmlabs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mjmlabs/32/69_2.png) [@mjmlabs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mjmlabs)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2019, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nc-09-special/839934/34 "2019-09-11T01:47:37Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > Sidebar question: why has it taken so long to have this election? Weren’t the dirty deeds done dirt cheap discovered a long time ago, right after last year’s election? There was some dickering/dithering/posturing, and I think there was a pretty thorough State Police investigation (source: uh, I think I remember reading that somewhere back then, maybe? \), and the NC State Board of Elections held hearings in mid-February. Unanimous NCSBoE vote to call for a fresh election happened later that week … but that meant a fresh primary (happened in May), and a mandatory post-primary campaign period, IIRC. I pulled some of that from this Wikipedia, which will surely be changing in the hours to come: [2019 North Carolina's 9th congressional district special election - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_North_Carolina%27s_9th_congressional_district_special_election) ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2019, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nc-09-special/839934/35 "2019-09-11T01:49:25Z")
Some states have E-days scheduled every three months. So getting through the trial, then the primary and giving enough time for campaigning it makes sense. ---
**Author:** ![USCDiver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uscdiver/32/354_2.png) [@USCDiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/USCDiver)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2019, 1:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nc-09-special/839934/36 "2019-09-11T01:54:44Z")
Yikes, McReady losing his lead in Mecklenberg as more precincts are reporting. This could be bad news… ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2019, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nc-09-special/839934/37 "2019-09-11T02:03:57Z")
Ah, well. It was always a long shot. McCready still did very well. It would have been nice to get this one, though. ---
**Author:** ![USCDiver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uscdiver/32/354_2.png) [@USCDiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/USCDiver)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2019, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nc-09-special/839934/38 "2019-09-11T02:15:43Z")
Called for Bishop. Some of the later reporting precincts in Mecklenberg Co must have been pretty small. The vote totals didn’t jump much from 54% to 76% reporting. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2019, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nc-09-special/839934/39 "2019-09-11T02:16:13Z")
[CNN doesn’t want to call it for Bishop](https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/north-carolina-special-election-september-2019/index.html). I wonder how long they’ll cling to false hope. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2019, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nc-09-special/839934/40 "2019-09-11T02:18:01Z")
never mind, I’ll save my celebrating for elsewhere [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nc-09-special/839934.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nc-09-special/839934.md?page=3)