# Need reliable estimate of crowd size for DC event 9/12 **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [September 14, 2009, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/need-reliable-estimate-of-crowd-size-for-dc-event-9-12/510081 "2009-09-14T20:43:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 18\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![River\_Hippie](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/river_hippie/32/26_2.png) [@River\_Hippie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/River_Hippie)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2009, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/need-reliable-estimate-of-crowd-size-for-dc-event-9-12/510081/1 "2009-09-14T20:43:40Z")
A family member was there and is claiming that over a million people attended. Most reports I saw reported tens of thousands. Is there an accepted source for crowd sizes in Washington DC? ---
**Author:** ![J\_Cubed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/c6cbf5/32.png) [@J\_Cubed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/J_Cubed)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2009, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/need-reliable-estimate-of-crowd-size-for-dc-event-9-12/510081/2 "2009-09-14T20:48:44Z")
Like most facts these days, even numbers are politically biased. It was [probably](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/09/size-matters-so-do-lies.html) around 70,000. I’d like to see the breakdown of who was offered what to go. Also, they did leave trash behind and use other government paid services while engaging in this event. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2009, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/need-reliable-estimate-of-crowd-size-for-dc-event-9-12/510081/3 "2009-09-14T20:52:41Z")
The 538 article above is about as good as you’ll get for an estimate. There were a number of conservative blogs that were also floating a [fake picture](http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2009/sep/14/tea-party-photo-shows-large-crowd-different-event/) of the event showing a lot more people than there actually were (well, the picture is real but was taken 10 or more years ago…among other things there are buildings there today that are not in the photo). Pretty silly attempt that was as it is so easily proven fraudulent. ---
**Author:** ![muldoonthief](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/muldoonthief/32/3188_2.png) [@muldoonthief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/muldoonthief)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2009, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/need-reliable-estimate-of-crowd-size-for-dc-event-9-12/510081/4 "2009-09-14T21:01:53Z")
The US. Park Police used to provide an “official” count, but after the [Million Man March](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Million_Man_March#Crowd_size_controversy) controversy, they stopped doing so. ---
**Author:** ![River\_Hippie](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/river_hippie/32/26_2.png) [@River\_Hippie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/River_Hippie)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2009, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/need-reliable-estimate-of-crowd-size-for-dc-event-9-12/510081/5 "2009-09-14T23:27:47Z")
Thanks, all. ---
**Author:** ![Napier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/ce73a5/32.png) [@Napier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Napier)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2009, 1:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/need-reliable-estimate-of-crowd-size-for-dc-event-9-12/510081/6 "2009-09-15T01:52:11Z")
If I got this all straight, tonight on Hardball, Chris Matthews reported that the event drew 50,000 to 70,000 according to Associated Press, but the event’s organizers quoted AP as saying it drew between 1,000,000 and 1,500,000. If anybody can quote Chris more accurately, please do. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2009, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/need-reliable-estimate-of-crowd-size-for-dc-event-9-12/510081/7 "2009-09-15T02:55:15Z")
Best _real_ pix I found for crowd estimate are here: [http://bighollywood.breitbart.com/cburgard/2009/09/14/912-the-revolution-has-begun/](http://bighollywood.breitbart.com/cburgard/2009/09/14/912-the-revolution-has-begun/) Call the filled street 3 blocks long and 60 feet wide, with a block being 528 feet long. That’s 95,000 square feet. People don’t pack well into a two square foot area, so no more than 50K in that picture. Add some thousands for those that showed up early and late, and 70K isn’t a bad estimate. ---
**Author:** ![Duckster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/duckster/32/1244_2.png) [@Duckster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duckster)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2009, 3:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/need-reliable-estimate-of-crowd-size-for-dc-event-9-12/510081/8 "2009-09-15T03:01:25Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > Pretty silly attempt that was as it is so easily proven fraudulent. Just like a fake birth certificate … ---
**Author:** ![Sailboat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sailboat/32/461_2.png) [@Sailboat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sailboat)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2009, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/need-reliable-estimate-of-crowd-size-for-dc-event-9-12/510081/9 "2009-09-15T16:58:04Z")
> [@J\_Cubed](#): > > Like most facts these days, even numbers are politically biased. You’re saying only odd numbers are free from bias? 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2009, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/need-reliable-estimate-of-crowd-size-for-dc-event-9-12/510081/10 "2009-09-15T17:16:30Z")
I remember reading an article some time ago which argued that there is no such thing as a reliable crowd size estimate for any event, ever. Unless there was some mechanical way to count, such as the event required tickets, or you needed to pass through a turnstile to get in, etc. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2009, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/need-reliable-estimate-of-crowd-size-for-dc-event-9-12/510081/11 "2009-09-15T17:35:21Z")
> [@suranyi](#): > > I remember reading an article some time ago which argued that there is no such thing as a reliable crowd size estimate for any event, ever. Unless there was some mechanical way to count, such as the event required tickets, or you needed to pass through a turnstile to get in, etc. Well…they can guesstimate pretty well actually. I doubt someone just eyeballing the crowd could do a good job. However, studies of pictures can get a fairly good ballpark estimate. As was done above you can simply figure out the area covered by a sea of people then do some simple math. The average human needs 4 square feet of room to stand in ([cite](http://blogs.ajc.com/political-insider-jim-galloway/2009/04/27/the-myth-of-the-15000/)). It’ll never be exact but certainly an idea can be had. Using **Squink’s** numbers above we get near 24,000. I presume more were fanned out other places though not accounted for in Squink’s number. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2009, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/need-reliable-estimate-of-crowd-size-for-dc-event-9-12/510081/12 "2009-09-15T17:46:11Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > Using **Squink’s** numbers above we get near 24,000. I presume more were fanned out other places though not accounted for in Squink’s number. My guess at the block size could be pretty far off too. That’s hardly a typical inner city/10 block per mile looking area in the pix. Plus, there’s probably a big blob that can’t be seen up by the capital. ---
**Author:** ![Yodalicious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yodalicious/32/8195_2.png) [@Yodalicious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Yodalicious)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2009, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/need-reliable-estimate-of-crowd-size-for-dc-event-9-12/510081/13 "2009-09-15T17:48:31Z")
Here is an article from [Politifact](http://politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2009/sep/14/tea-party-photo-shows-large-crowd-different-event/) on the crowd size and the false photo. ---
**Author:** ![elelle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f0a364/32.png) [@elelle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elelle)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2009, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/need-reliable-estimate-of-crowd-size-for-dc-event-9-12/510081/14 "2009-09-15T18:34:55Z")
Another factor in the crowds at the Mall that day was the 24th Annual Black Family Reunion. From Max Fischer’s article at [The Atlantic](http://politics.theatlantic.com/2009/09/the_other_912_rally.php): > [@](#): > > What no one has noted is that two-thirds of the National Mall was filled by an entirely separate event on Saturday that had nothing to do with protesting the president. September 12 just happened to be the 24th-annual Black Family Reunion, which ran from 7th Street all the way to the Washington Monument. I spent several hours on the Mall on Saturday, and there’s no question that protesters numbered at least in the tens of thousands, but they were isolated to only a fraction of the area they’re credited with having filled. The Black Family Reunion, a peaceful and friendly event designed around “healing and uplifting black families,” featured mild-mannered African American families meandering through a series of promotional tables and large white tents scattered across the Mall. One crowd gathered across from the Washington Monument, not to protest health-care reform but to enjoy a Christian-themed R&B concert, where volunteers handed out free water bottles and bananas. Talk about an odd juxtaposition of gatherings. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2009, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/need-reliable-estimate-of-crowd-size-for-dc-event-9-12/510081/15 "2009-09-15T19:08:59Z")
> [@elelle](#): > > Talk about an odd juxtaposition of gatherings. I’m reminded of the Far Side with the daycare center next door to the dingo farm… ---
**Author:** ![YogSothoth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/8edcca/32.png) [@YogSothoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YogSothoth)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2009, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/need-reliable-estimate-of-crowd-size-for-dc-event-9-12/510081/16 "2009-09-15T19:10:50Z")
> [@suranyi](#): > > I remember reading an article some time ago which argued that there is no such thing as a reliable crowd size estimate for any event, ever. Unless there was some mechanical way to count, such as the event required tickets, or you needed to pass through a turnstile to get in, etc. [This article?](http://www.slate.com/id/2209407/) ---
**Author:** ![DJ\_Motorbike](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/90ced4/32.png) [@DJ\_Motorbike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DJ_Motorbike)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2009, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/need-reliable-estimate-of-crowd-size-for-dc-event-9-12/510081/17 "2009-09-15T19:20:09Z")
> [@elelle](#): > > Talk about an odd juxtaposition of gatherings. Why? ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2009, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/need-reliable-estimate-of-crowd-size-for-dc-event-9-12/510081/18 "2009-09-15T20:32:23Z")
> [@YogSosoth](#): > > [This article?](http://www.slate.com/id/2209407/) Yeah, that could have been it.