# "Nero fiddled while Rome Burned". FAKE NEWS? How much of History class is even true? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 30, 2017, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nero-fiddled-while-rome-burned-fake-news-how-much-of-history-class-is-even-true/792459 "2017-07-30T20:11:21Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![SamuelA](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c77e96/32.png) [@SamuelA](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SamuelA)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2017, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nero-fiddled-while-rome-burned-fake-news-how-much-of-history-class-is-even-true/792459/1 "2017-07-30T20:11:21Z")
Just a thought. All the simple stuff we were taught in history class - from ‘one lantern or two’ or ‘The British are Coming!’ to the story of Julius Caesar…how much of it was true and how much of it was convenient propaganda? 500 years from now, would schoolkids be talking about Emperor Trump I and The Great Wall he built to keep out the bad hombres? Would all that bullshit we hear from the governing authorities of the land become accepted historical fact? ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2017, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nero-fiddled-while-rome-burned-fake-news-how-much-of-history-class-is-even-true/792459/2 "2017-07-30T20:25:52Z")
[Lies My Teacher Told Me: Everything Your American History Textbook Got Wrong](https://www.amazon.com/Lies-My-Teacher-Told-Everything-ebook/dp/B0041OT8EK/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1501446316&sr=8-1&keywords=lies+my+teacher+told+me) ---
**Author:** ![etasyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/9f8e36/32.png) [@etasyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/etasyde)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2017, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nero-fiddled-while-rome-burned-fake-news-how-much-of-history-class-is-even-true/792459/3 "2017-07-30T21:08:10Z")
> [@SamuelA](#): > > Just a thought. All the simple stuff we were taught in history class - from ‘one lantern or two’ or ‘The British are Coming!’ to the story of Julius Caesar…how much of it was true and how much of it was convenient propaganda? History _class_ has gone through the filter of the state, and even in liberal democracies there’s virtually no chance of that filter not ramping up the propaganda. _Actual_ history, readily available online nowadays, is a far more accurate accounting of events. Keep in mind that _usually_ people who catalog history don’t have some centuries long plan to confuse 2nd graders in a country that doesn’t exist yet. They certainly have biases and don’t want to admit to their own wrongdoing, but it’s not a nefarious scheme - and reading alternative sources allows you to counterweight those biases. > [@SamuelA](#): > > 500 years from now, would schoolkids be talking about Emperor Trump I and The Great Wall he built to keep out the bad hombres? Would all that bullshit we hear from the governing authorities of the land become accepted historical fact? That really depends on who wins. Assuming Trump gets impeached? Then he was filmed eating babies, and elected by a cabal of satan worshiping anarchists. Well, more than likely they’ll read about how he wasn’t good, but it was a contentious time, and like all American presidents ever, he was to be remembered as a Hero. Because propaganda doesn’t like embarassments. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2017, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nero-fiddled-while-rome-burned-fake-news-how-much-of-history-class-is-even-true/792459/4 "2017-07-30T21:19:49Z")
> [@SamuelA](#): > > Just a thought. All the simple stuff we were taught in history class - from ‘one lantern or two’ or ‘The British are Coming!’ to the story of Julius Caesar…how much of it was true and how much of it was convenient propaganda? 500 years from now, would schoolkids be talking about Emperor Trump I and The Great Wall he built to keep out the bad hombres? Would all that bullshit we hear from the governing authorities of the land become accepted historical fact? Actually, I have seen many historians and history books making a sport\*\* of shooting down\*\* rumors like that one. Like the Nero one: [http://www.historytoday.com/richard-cavendish/great-fire-rome](http://www.historytoday.com/richard-cavendish/great-fire-rome) > [@](#): > > According to Tacitus, Nero was sufficiently disturbed by the widespread belief that the fire had been started on his orders that he picked the Christians to blame as scapegoats. They were believers in what Tacitus called ‘a most mischievous superstition’ that had spread to Rome ‘where all things hideous and shameful from every part of the world find their centre and become popular’. Christians were seized and tortured into confessing, then torn to pieces by dogs, crucified or burned alive and used as human torches at night. A Christian text of the second century proclaimed that Nero was the Antichrist. > > Today’s historians generally doubt that Nero ordered his minions to start the fire. One has to blame popular culture, and some do suspect the Christians later for preserving that rumor about Nero starting the fire, or for the popularization of it. Not that I blame them, it sounds like a deserved comeback when Nero then blamed the Christians for the fire and executed them just to counter the rumor. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2017, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nero-fiddled-while-rome-burned-fake-news-how-much-of-history-class-is-even-true/792459/5 "2017-07-30T21:26:30Z")
Now, I have problems with the History Channel, but even they do point about how inaccurate the Paul Revere tale in the popular poem was. > **[10 Things You May Not Know About Paul Revere | HISTORY](https://www.history.com/news/11-things-you-may-not-know-about-paul-revere)** > > Explore 10 facts about American history’s archetypal patriot, Paul Revere, and his famed midnight ride. > [@](#): > > The well-known poem about him is inaccurate. > > Henry Wadsworth Longfellow’s 1861 poem about Paul Revere’s ride got many of the facts wrong. For one thing, Revere was not alone on his mission to warn John Hancock, Samuel Adams and other patriots that the British were approaching Lexington on the evening of April 18, 1775. Two other men, William Dawes and Samuel Prescott, rode alongside him, and by the end of the night as many as 40 men on horseback were spreading the word across Boston’s Middlesex County. Revere also never reached Concord, as the poem inaccurately recounts. Overtaken by the British, the three riders split up and headed in different directions. Revere was temporarily detained by the British at Lexington and Dawes lost his way after falling off his horse, leaving Prescott—a young physician who is believed to have died in the war several years later—the task of alerting Concord’s residents. ---
**Author:** ![DSYoungEsq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c6cbf5/32.png) [@DSYoungEsq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSYoungEsq)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2017, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nero-fiddled-while-rome-burned-fake-news-how-much-of-history-class-is-even-true/792459/6 "2017-07-30T22:46:38Z")
I don’t know where **SamuelA** went to school, but MY history teachers certainly didn’t teach such silly nonsense. Of course, they might have taught other silly nonsense, but they didn’t rely upon popular folkstory versions of events when teaching what happened. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2017, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nero-fiddled-while-rome-burned-fake-news-how-much-of-history-class-is-even-true/792459/7 "2017-07-30T23:47:58Z")
Yeah, I’ve never heard the “fiddled while Rome burned” without hearing an explanation of why it may well not have happened. Though it calling it fake is a bit strong IMO, there may be some doubt about it, but the fact remains almost all the surviving sources do say that Nero sang in costume while Rome burned. ---
**Author:** ![Senegoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senegoid/32/6606_2.png) [@Senegoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Senegoid)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2017, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nero-fiddled-while-rome-burned-fake-news-how-much-of-history-class-is-even-true/792459/8 "2017-07-31T02:21:19Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > [Lies My Teacher Told Me: Everything Your American History Textbook Got Wrong](https://www.amazon.com/Lies-My-Teacher-Told-Everything-ebook/dp/B0041OT8EK/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1501446316&sr=8-1&keywords=lies+my+teacher+told+me) My immediate reaction too; but **Rick Kitchen** nailed it in 2. Per the thumbnail review on the above-cited Amazon page: > [@](#): > > **A completely revised edition of James W. Loewen’s classic retelling of American history, based on six new textbooks and including an all-new chapter on the recent past** > > What started out as a survey of the twelve leading American history textbooks has ended up being what the San Francisco Chronicle calls “an extremely convincing plea for truth in education.” In Lies My Teacher Told Me, James W. Loewen brings history alive in all its complexity and ambiguity. Beginning with pre-Columbian history and ranging over characters and events as diverse as Reconstruction, Helen Keller, the first Thanksgiving, and the My Lai massacre, Loewen offers an eye-opening critique of existing textbooks, and a wonderful retelling of American history as it should—and could—be taught to American students. (Bold-face in original.) I wonder just how “completely revised” this is, being based on “six new textbooks”? Does he still tell the same basic stories, or has he chosen an all-new collection of mis-told stories to re-tell? Is it still substantially the same book as it was 20 years ago, or substantially an all-different book? Note that James Loewen has other books too, along these same lines: [Lies Across America: What Our Historic Sites Get Wrong](https://www.amazon.com/Lies-Across-America-Historic-Sites-ebook/dp/B005GPSIUI/ref=pd_sim_351_1?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1&refRID=BPW2C70X8A82HBTV21ZJ) ---
**Author:** ![jasg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f0a364/32.png) [@jasg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jasg)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2017, 5:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nero-fiddled-while-rome-burned-fake-news-how-much-of-history-class-is-even-true/792459/9 "2017-07-31T05:03:02Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > [Lies My Teacher Told Me: Everything Your American History Textbook Got Wrong](https://www.amazon.com/Lies-My-Teacher-Told-Everything-ebook/dp/B0041OT8EK/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1501446316&sr=8-1&keywords=lies+my+teacher+told+me) I have two other books to add, quickly summarized as American history from the point of the losers and the second as the story of the common people, rogues, scoundrels and demagogues who made it happen. Neither really are the same as what we learned in school. Howard Zinn - [A People’s History of the United States](https://www.amazon.com/Peoples-History-United-States/dp/0062397346/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1501476115&sr=1-1&keywords=howard+zinn) Walter McDougall - [Freedom Just Around the Corner](https://www.amazon.com/Freedom-Just-Around-Corner-1585-1828/dp/0060957557/ref=sr_1_5?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1501476556&sr=1-5&keywords=walter+mcdougall). (First of a planned trilogy) ---
**Author:** ![JpnDude](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/838e76/32.png) [@JpnDude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JpnDude)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2017, 6:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nero-fiddled-while-rome-burned-fake-news-how-much-of-history-class-is-even-true/792459/10 "2017-07-31T06:30:07Z")
And there’s a bunch more in one of my favorite Wikipedia pages: [List of Common Misconceptions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_common_misconceptions#History) ---
**Author:** ![Latro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a87d85/32.png) [@Latro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Latro)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2017, 7:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nero-fiddled-while-rome-burned-fake-news-how-much-of-history-class-is-even-true/792459/11 "2017-07-31T07:46:13Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > Not that I blame them, it sounds like a deserved comeback when Nero then blamed the Christians for the fire and executed them just to counter the rumor. Who’s to say that it wasn’t the christians that started the fire? They were a deathcult, after all, thinking the world would end pretty damn soon. There’s christians like that even today, trying to hurry the apocalypse along by trying to get certain propheties fulfilled. ---
**Author:** ![Nava](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/da6949/32.png) [@Nava](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nava)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2017, 10:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nero-fiddled-while-rome-burned-fake-news-how-much-of-history-class-is-even-true/792459/12 "2017-07-31T10:03:00Z")
> [@griffin1977](#): > > Yeah, I’ve never heard the “fiddled while Rome burned” without hearing an explanation of why it may well not have happened. No fiddles, for starters… ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2017, 10:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nero-fiddled-while-rome-burned-fake-news-how-much-of-history-class-is-even-true/792459/13 "2017-07-31T10:47:41Z")
“The truth of history, so much in request, to which every body eagerly appeals, is too often but a word. At the time of the events, during the heat of conflicting passions, it cannot exist; and if, at a later period, all parties are agreed respecting it, it is because those persons who were interested in the events, those who might be able to contradict what is asserted, are no more. _ **What then is, generally speaking, the truth of history? A fable agreed upon** _.” - Napoleon ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2017, 11:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nero-fiddled-while-rome-burned-fake-news-how-much-of-history-class-is-even-true/792459/14 "2017-07-31T11:44:10Z")
I dunno what people’s views of Richard Shenkman are, but: [I Love Paul Revere, Whether He Rode or Not](https://www.amazon.com/Love-Paul-Revere-Whether-Rode/dp/006092330X/ref=sr_1_1?s=digital-text&ie=UTF8&qid=1501501258&sr=8-1&keywords=i+love+paul+revere) [Legends, Lies & Cherished Myths of American History](https://www.amazon.com/Legends-Cherished-Myths-American-History/dp/0060972610/ref=pd_sim_14_1?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_i=0060972610&pd_rd_r=Y488DV35VKH9926R4NNG&pd_rd_w=uKWWR&pd_rd_wg=MR0zI&psc=1&refRID=Y488DV35VKH9926R4NNG) ---
**Author:** ![CalMeacham](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/calmeacham/32/35_2.png) [@CalMeacham](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CalMeacham)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2017, 12:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nero-fiddled-while-rome-burned-fake-news-how-much-of-history-class-is-even-true/792459/15 "2017-07-31T12:32:20Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > I dunno what people’s views of Richard Shenkman are, but: > > [I Love Paul Revere, Whether He Rode or Not](https://www.amazon.com/Love-Paul-Revere-Whether-Rode/dp/006092330X/ref=sr_1_1?s=digital-text&ie=UTF8&qid=1501501258&sr=8-1&keywords=i+love+paul+revere) > > [Legends, Lies & Cherished Myths of American History](https://www.amazon.com/Legends-Cherished-Myths-American-History/dp/0060972610/ref=pd_sim_14_1?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_i=0060972610&pd_rd_r=Y488DV35VKH9926R4NNG&pd_rd_w=uKWWR&pd_rd_wg=MR0zI&psc=1&refRID=Y488DV35VKH9926R4NNG) I came in to post about him. I discovered Shenkman before I found Jamers Loewen. Loewen’s point is that history, as taught, is often untrustworthy because people in a position of power have agendas they want to push. Shenkman’s point is that there’s an awful lot of historical research that was done that never percolated through to Common Knowledge, regardless of whether anyone had agendas. His books are useful compendia of (unfortunately) little-known bits of history. He doesn’t try to put it together to make a coherent whole or make a case for why things are that way (as Loewen does). I think of him more as the history equivalent of Jearl D. Walker and his _Flying Circus of Physics_. And he’s quite right. It’s not because of anyone’s agenda that books continue to relate that Robert Fulton’s first steamship was called the _Claremont_ – it’s inertia and a tendency to repeat what one “knows”, without checking the facts (Fulton’s boat apparently never had an official name, but was variously called the “North River Steam Ship” or the “North River of Clarement”, because it docked at Claremont, N.Y.) See Shenkman’s book, or here – [North River Steamboat - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_River_Steamboat) Shenkman wrote another similar book, _Legends, Lies, and Myths of World History_, but it’s not as good or as detailed as his other two. It feels like a contractual obligation book. Worth reading, though. > **[Legends , Lies & Cherished Myths of World History: Shenkman, Richard:...](https://www.amazon.com/Legends-Cherished-Myths-World-History/dp/0060922559)** > > Legends , Lies & Cherished Myths of World History \[Shenkman, Richard\] on Amazon.com. \*FREE\* shipping on qualifying offers. Legends , Lies & Cherished Myths of World History His earliest book, _One-Night Stands in American History_ , is kind of a mishmash, although it’s been republished a few times. And he corrects one of the errors in it in his second book. > **[One-Night Stands with American History (Revised and Updated Edition): Odd,...](https://www.amazon.com/One-Night-American-History-Revised-Updated/dp/0060538201)** > > One-Night Stands with American History (Revised and Updated Edition): Odd, Amusing, and Little-Known Incidents \[Shenkman, Richard, Reiger, Kurt\] on Amazon.com. \*FREE\* shipping on qualifying offers. One-Night Stands with American History (Revised and... Shenkman’s Legend served as the basis for a short-lived cable TV series. It was read as an audio book by Gary Owens (Yep, the guy from “Laugh-In”), who sometimes seems to not believe what he’s reading. ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2017, 1:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nero-fiddled-while-rome-burned-fake-news-how-much-of-history-class-is-even-true/792459/16 "2017-07-31T13:22:26Z")
> [@CalMeacham](#): > > Shenkman’s point is that there’s an awful lot of historical research that was done that never percolated through to Common Knowledge, regardless of whether anyone had agendas. This is very true. A good example I’ve come across: The whole understanding of medieval society has been transformed over the past few decades, but almost nobody other than professors of medieval history is aware of it. If you want to make a professor of medieval history roll his/her eyes these days, just start talking about ‘the feudal system’. The modern scholarly understanding is that there was no such thing. But so deeply is the idea of ‘the feudal system’ ingrained in public awareness and the school system, that modern academics despair of ever getting this new understanding across to the public. Here’s an excellent introductory article about this: [The F-Word - The Problem with Feudalism](http://historymedren.about.com/od/feudalism/a/feudalism.htm) And a brief [statement](http://sourcebooks.fordham.edu/halsall/sbook1i.asp#Feudalism) of the situation on the Internet Medieval Sourcebook. ---
**Author:** ![ZPG\_Zealot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e47c2d/32.png) [@ZPG\_Zealot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ZPG_Zealot)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2017, 1:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nero-fiddled-while-rome-burned-fake-news-how-much-of-history-class-is-even-true/792459/17 "2017-07-31T13:30:11Z")
> [@griffin1977](#): > > Yeah, I’ve never heard the “fiddled while Rome burned” without hearing an explanation of why it may well not have happened. Though it calling it fake is a bit strong IMO, there may be some doubt about it, but the fact remains almost all the surviving sources do say that Nero sang in costume while Rome burned. No, they don’t. Nero wasn’t even in Rome at the time of the fire. Furthermore the violin or fiddle had not even been invented yet. One of the worst aspects of this particular lie is, despite the persecution of Christians (which as a cult awaiting the end of the world kind of put a target on their backs for being blamed for the fire), the aftermath of the Great Fire was one of the few times Nero basically acted like a responsible emperor organizing grain shipments to feed the population and deploying soldiers to maintain order. ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2017, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nero-fiddled-while-rome-burned-fake-news-how-much-of-history-class-is-even-true/792459/18 "2017-07-31T14:33:26Z")
… However, there are a number of Roman accounts which say that Nero sang while Rome burned. > [@](#): > > In the year 64 A.D., a devastating fire occurred in Rome. The Emperor, who was at Antium, on learning of the conflagration, returned to the city and undertook relief measures. He threw open his gardens and public buildings to the dispossessed populace and brought in grain from the neighboring towns. But, according to Tacitus, “_his measures, popular as their character might be, failed of their effect; for the report had spread that, at the very moment when Rome was aflame, he had mounted his private stage, and, typifying the ills of the present by the calamities of the past, had sung the Destruction of Troy_.” > > Suetonius, writing at almost the same time, tells the story as if it were a fact, changing the details as follows: “_Viewing the conflagration from the tower of Maecenas . . . he sang the whole of the Sack of Ilion in his regular stage costume_.” > > Not until a century and a half after the event is there any positive indication of a musical instrument. Dio Cassius, ca. 225, describing the fire writes that “_Nero ascended to the roof of the palace from which there was the best general view . . . and assuming the kithara-player’s garb, sang the Capture of Troy. . . ._” Even here the stress lies upon Nero’s singing, though the presence of a kithara might be assumed along with the garb. > > Among later writers, Nero the musician is eclipsed by Nero the persecutor. Of those who mention his musicianship, Eutropius, Sidonius, and Orosius, only the latter presents a detailed account. Following Suetonius, apparently, he says, "_The emperor himself viewed the conflagration from the lofty tower of Maecenas, . . . it is said that he declaimed the Iliad in a tragedian’s costume."_ > > Since we are striving to discover at just what period a musical instrument is placed in Nero’s hands in the literary descriptions of the fire, it is significant to note that no positive statement of the presence of an instrument has been made yet. However, the probability is that he did play the cithara. Nearly all poetry in Hellenic and Roman times was sung or declaimed to the accompaniment of musical instruments. The evidence shows that Nero took part in public competition on the cithara. Furthermore, all the writers of the period who refer to Nero’s musical activity agree that the cithara was his favorite instrument. Indeed, there is concrete evidence of this fact. Suetonius writes that Nero had statues and coins made of himself in the guise of a cithara player, and some of these coins are extant today and may be seen in the British Museum. from ["Nero Fiddled While Rome Burned"](http://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Journals/CJ/42/4/Nero_Fiddled*.html)by Mary Francis Gyles ---
**Author:** ![aldiboronti](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9fc348/32.png) [@aldiboronti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aldiboronti)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2017, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nero-fiddled-while-rome-burned-fake-news-how-much-of-history-class-is-even-true/792459/19 "2017-07-31T15:53:09Z")
There’s an amusing theory by an 18th century British mathematician that the older a reported story is the less probability it has of being true. For example a story told of something that happened yesterday or last week has a very high truth probability because of first-hand accounts, living memory, etc. The further back you go the lower becomes the probability a story is accurate, more chance that written records have been corrupted, no first-hand witnesses alive. He worked out a mathematical formula for computing the lowering of probability over time. The further back in time you went the less likely that the story was true. And as the line of probability was constantly tending towards zero after a certain number of years it would reach that point. He calculated from his graph that by 25th or 26th century (I don’t remember exactly) the probability of Julius Caesar having been assassinated by Brutus or by anybody would have a zero probability of being true and thus would be false. In other words it didn’t happen. Of course it doesn’t hold up but I could never quite figure out why. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![aldiboronti](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9fc348/32.png) [@aldiboronti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aldiboronti)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2017, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nero-fiddled-while-rome-burned-fake-news-how-much-of-history-class-is-even-true/792459/20 "2017-07-31T16:08:34Z")
[Here’s the fellow referred to in my post above.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Craig_(mathematician)) It was John Craig in his _Theologiae Christianae Principia Mathematica_, 1698, and my post in its errors illustrated perfectly what he wrote about. It wasn’t the probability of Caesar’s assassination, it was the story of Jesus, the probability of which would reach zero in the year 3150. Not having read the book I don’t quite know how he squared that with his Christian beliefs but he must have done because 3150 is also the year he calculated for the Second Coming. 😕 [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nero-fiddled-while-rome-burned-fake-news-how-much-of-history-class-is-even-true/792459.md?page=2)