# Netanyahu's speech on Iran **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 3, 2015, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/netanyahus-speech-on-iran/714132 "2015-03-03T20:39:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2015, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/netanyahus-speech-on-iran/714132/81 "2015-03-05T14:31:03Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > 1. Israelis usually vote according to principle, rather than personality - they’ll vote for the party whose stated ideology is closest to their own, regardless of the dipshits in charge. From Midgam poll on March 4th: Who is most suited to serve as Prime Minister? 47% Netanyahu, 28% Herzog, 21% Don’t know, 4% Both are equally suited ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2015, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/netanyahus-speech-on-iran/714132/82 "2015-03-05T16:26:37Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > Iran and the rest aren’t going to hate Israel any **more** if Israel bombs their nuclear sites. And it is better to be feared than loved. Bombing the piss out of the nuclear sites is at least as likely to delay Iran’s nuclear program as a promise by them to play nice this time. [That should not be considered as an option.](http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/20/world/middleeast/united-states-war-game-sees-dire-results-of-an-israeli-attack-on-iran.html?_r=0) From 2012: > [@](#): > > WASHINGTON — A classified war simulation held this month to assess the repercussions of an Israeli attack on Iran forecasts that the strike would lead to a wider regional war, which could draw in the United States and leave hundreds of Americans dead, according to American officials. ---
**Author:** ![Rhythmdvl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/85f322/32.png) [@Rhythmdvl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rhythmdvl)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2015, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/netanyahus-speech-on-iran/714132/83 "2015-03-05T17:27:32Z")
I’m a bit confused about the whole sunset clause. Does the clause actually say something like: “If Iran fully complies with the terms of this agreement, then in 2025 Iran is completely free to pursue any course of nuclear research, construction, etc. it chooses, whereas the United States is prohibited from raising any objection or taking any action to block or otherwise interfere with those choices.” Because if it doesn’t explicitly grant permission for Iran to do whatever it wants post-agreement, _and_ explicitly commit the United States to fully acquiescing to that, then sunset clause-based objections are exceedingly hollow. How is it possible to take the objection seriously? ---
**Author:** ![Donald\_Rump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9fc29f/32.png) [@Donald\_Rump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Donald_Rump)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2015, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/netanyahus-speech-on-iran/714132/84 "2015-03-05T17:32:01Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > WASHINGTON — A classified war simulation held this month to assess the repercussions of an Israeli attack on Iran forecasts that the strike would lead to a wider regional war, which could draw in the United States and leave hundreds of Americans dead, according to American officials. Hang on, war with Iran would leave “hundreds” of Americans dead? Who’s their source on that, Bill Kristol? ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2015, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/netanyahus-speech-on-iran/714132/85 "2015-03-05T18:03:08Z")
Did you know that “could” and “would” are different words? Cite available on request. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2015, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/netanyahus-speech-on-iran/714132/86 "2015-03-05T20:19:15Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > 😕 > How is that different from their parents? If anything they face _less_ day to day threats than earlier generations. Or has the narrative gone more rightwing? I agree with you 100% and while I don’t want to speak for Allessan, I think the major problem is that so many Israelis were disillusioned by certain events that we think of differently. One of the things that is largely ignored in the West is just how even the left-wing peaceniks in Israel supported both Cast Lead and the recent Gaza War. AFAIK, every Jewish MK supported them, including members of Meretz. The founder of the “Peace Now” movement from the 80s, Amos Oz was now one of fervent supporters and if anything is to the right of Bibi. Virtually all American Jewish friends of mine constantly like to insist how Bibi only speaks for a small number of Israelis and in many ways that’s true, but they’re ignoring the reality that for the most part, what opposition to both those wars exists in Israel exists mainly amongst people who thought Bibi was too soft. The reason for this among the Amos Ozes of Israel is because frankly there core claim for decades was that they could exchange “land for peace” and from their (flawed) perspective, Ariel Sharon gave back Gaza and the situation didn’t get better but instead got worse. That’s also of course there view increasingly of the creation of the PA and the 2000 peace talks that almost destroyed the Labor party. ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2015, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/netanyahus-speech-on-iran/714132/87 "2015-03-05T20:28:28Z")
The point is, it’s ridiculous to think that Israel can bomb Iran and not expect a response. The idea that Iran is already doing everything it can against Israel is nonsensical. Any bombing of Iran is going to require a response from Iran. Even if the mullahs wanted to just sit there and take it, they wouldn’t be able to. They’d have to strike back at Israel. And there’s no way Iran would treat an Israeli attack as only an Israeli attack, they’d believe that the United States encouraged/ordered the attack. There’s no way the US could plausibly stand there and claim that the Israeli attack took us by surprise. If Bibi wants to bomb Iran, and Obama doesn’t want him to bomb Iran, we can warn the Iranians if we believe that the attack is about to happen. We could even shoot down Israeli bombers, if we really thought bombing Iran was a bad idea. If Israeli bombers hit Iran it will be with the cooperation of the US military, even if that cooperation merely consists of standing aside and watching it happen and keeping it a secret from them. But in reality, we know this, Israel knows this, and Iran knows this. There is no way Israel can bomb Iran independently of the United States, such that the United States can escape the blame. So either we bomb Iran ourselves, or we stop the Israelis cold if they try. But we’re not going to bomb Iran, even if they build a nuclear weapon. We aren’t bombing Pakistan are we? Bombing is off the table. Bombing is a fantasy. Bombing Iran won’t stop their nuclear program, it will intensify their nuclear program. So now what? Either Iran agrees to halt its nuclear program in return for lifting the sanctions, or they don’t. Adding a bunch of new conditions to the negotiations means they fail. But if the negotiations fail, then Iran starts up the nuke factory again. And if negotiations fail because the United States goes hawkish, then Russia and China and Europe drop their sanctions. That’s what’s so silly about this, because we can’t force Iran to give up its nuclear program, we can only convince them that it’s more trouble than it’s worth. Iran doesn’t sell oil to the United States, it sells oil to Europe. If we can’t convince the Europeans and Russians and Chinese to continue sanctions, then it doesn’t matter that American sanctions are even tighter than before, because we already have almost no trade with Iran. This is what people can’t seem to understand. If we want to continue sanctions against Iran we need to convince CHINA to keep sanctions. So why didn’t Bibi go to China to make a speech there? The answer is obvious, they wouldn’t listen to him. So what’s the point of the speech to America then? ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2015, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/netanyahus-speech-on-iran/714132/88 "2015-03-05T22:04:13Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > I agree with you 100% and while I don’t want to speak for Allessan, I think the major problem is that so many Israelis were disillusioned by certain events that we think of differently. > > One of the things that is largely ignored in the West is just how even the left-wing peaceniks in Israel supported both Cast Lead and the recent Gaza War. AFAIK, every Jewish MK supported them, including members of Meretz. > > The founder of the “Peace Now” movement from the 80s, Amos Oz was now one of fervent supporters and if anything is to the right of Bibi. > > Virtually all American Jewish friends of mine constantly like to insist how Bibi only speaks for a small number of Israelis and in many ways that’s true, but they’re ignoring the reality that for the most part, what opposition to both those wars exists in Israel exists mainly amongst people who thought Bibi was too soft. > > The reason for this among the Amos Ozes of Israel is because frankly there core claim for decades was that they could exchange “land for peace” and from their (flawed) perspective, Ariel Sharon gave back Gaza and the situation didn’t get better but instead got worse. > > That’s also of course there view increasingly of the creation of the PA and the 2000 peace talks that almost destroyed the Labor party. A couple of quibbles - 1. Amos Oz is currently stumping for Meretz, so I don’t think he’s gone to the right of Bibi just yet. You should check your sources. 2. I’d argue with you about your “flawed” comment, but I doubt we’d reach any agreement on that. But other than that, you’ve pretty much got it. As far as most Israelis are concerned, the Oslo Agreement led to the suicide bombings, the withdrawal from Lebanon led to rockets at Haifa, the withdrawal from Gaza led to rockets at Tel Aviv, and the whole neighborhood is going to hell. _You_ may not see it that way, but then, you won’t be voting in two weeks. Even me - I’m a centrist, not a leftist. My problem with Bibi isn’t so much his ideology as the fact that I think he’s an empty suit who mistakes pretty speeches for action, a moral coward who never met a hard decision he couldn’t shirk. He’ll never bomb a reactor, or make peace with the Palestinians, or rescue hostages a thousand miles away, or dismantle settlements, or do anything else that needs to be done. My country deserves a better leader. Not more liberal, not more conservative, just… better. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 1:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/netanyahus-speech-on-iran/714132/89 "2015-03-06T01:20:59Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > Even me - I’m a centrist, not a leftist. My problem with Bibi isn’t so much his ideology as the fact that I think he’s an empty suit who mistakes pretty speeches for action, a moral coward who never met a hard decision he couldn’t shirk. He’ll never bomb a reactor, or make peace with the Palestinians, or rescue hostages a thousand miles away, or dismantle settlements, or do anything else that needs to be done. My country deserves a better leader. Not more liberal, not more conservative, just… better. Do you see any pol in Israel who could be that guy? ---
**Author:** ![camille](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/22d042/32.png) [@camille](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/camille)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/netanyahus-speech-on-iran/714132/90 "2015-03-06T01:25:28Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Do you see any pol in Israel who could be that guy? No politician in any country is that guy. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/netanyahus-speech-on-iran/714132/91 "2015-03-06T01:59:22Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > While I wouldn’t give it 100%, this is probably true. It’s like this: > > 1. Israelis usually vote according to principle, rather than personality - they’ll vote for the party whose stated ideology is closest to their own, regardless of the dipshits in charge. > > 2. The operative phrase for Israeli elections is “It’s the security, stupid”. People may talk about economics and civil rights, but in the end, it’ll be national security that decides their vote. > > 3. The Israeli public has become overwhelmingly hawkish over the past 15 years, as a result of the collapse of the Oslo Process, the Second Intifada, Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the general breakdown in the Arab world. This has caused people - especially young people, who grew up with suicide bombers and Katyushas - to lean strongly to the right in terms of voting patterns, even though they’re largely much more liberal on other issues. > > It’s a mess, and one I don’t know how to fix. Sometime I wish we were a bit more like you Americans, deciding our elections based on stupid beauty contests and bullshit issues, but alas. If there’s any chance for Labor to win the elections, it’ll be by attacking Bibi not on his beliefs, but on his competence. If they manage to crack his fake “Mr. Security” facade, they might have a chance. Do Israelis feel more secure under Netanyahu than they were 10 years ago? 😕 ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 5:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/netanyahus-speech-on-iran/714132/92 "2015-03-06T05:33:12Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > A couple of quibbles - > > 1. Amos Oz is currently stumping for Meretz, so I don’t think he’s gone to the right of Bibi just yet. You should check your sources. > > 2. I’d argue with you about your “flawed” comment, but I doubt we’d reach any agreement on that. > > But other than that, you’ve pretty much got it. As far as most Israelis are concerned, the Oslo Agreement led to the suicide bombings, the withdrawal from Lebanon led to rockets at Haifa, the withdrawal from Gaza led to rockets at Tel Aviv, and the whole neighborhood is going to hell. _You_ may not see it that way, but then, you won’t be voting in two weeks. > > Even me - I’m a centrist, not a leftist. My problem with Bibi isn’t so much his ideology as the fact that I think he’s an empty suit who mistakes pretty speeches for action, a moral coward who never met a hard decision he couldn’t shirk. He’ll never bomb a reactor, or make peace with the Palestinians, or rescue hostages a thousand miles away, or dismantle settlements, or do anything else that needs to be done. My country deserves a better leader. Not more liberal, not more conservative, just… better. I didn’t mean to imply that Oz was a supporter of Bibi. I meant he was a strong supporter of Protective Edge and Cast Lead as was Meretz and the other “peace” parties. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 5:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/netanyahus-speech-on-iran/714132/93 "2015-03-06T05:37:27Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Do Israelis feel more secure under Netanyahu than they were 10 years ago? 😕 I don’t think you can underestimate the way “withdrawal” from Gaza under Sharon led not to more security but more attacks and how the failure of Camp David in 2004 effected the Israelis. Not of course that I agree with them. ---
**Author:** ![Donald\_Rump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9fc29f/32.png) [@Donald\_Rump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Donald_Rump)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/netanyahus-speech-on-iran/714132/94 "2015-03-06T18:14:16Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Correct me if I am wrong, but the deal that is being discussed right now has a [sunset in it](http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-fatal-flaw-in-the-iran-deal/2015/02/26/9186c70e-bde1-11e4-8668-4e7ba8439ca6_story.html). That is, in 10 years, if Iran complies, all restrictions on them go away and they can do whatever they want, including developing nuclear weapons. > > I’d like it explained exactly how that deal is “good-enough” and how it squares with the promises by Obama and Rice that “We will not let Iran have a nuclear weapon. Period.”. The [National Interest](http://nationalinterest.org/feature/false-flag-the-fake-uproar-over-irans-nuclear-sunset-12370) has a good piece of commentary that addresses–in my view, conclusively–the sunset clause issue. The writer is Richard Nephew, a former member of the US negotiating team with Iran and Director for Iran at the National Security Council. A few highlights: > [@](#): > > Commentators skewering the administration over this provision know full well that “sunset clauses” are quite common in international diplomacy and even in sensible Congressional legislation. This is not surprising because it is difficult to conceive of a voluntary arrangement reached in which one country gives up, in perpetuity, its ability to engage in an activity. Thus, sunset clauses have been a common trait of U.S diplomacy especially arms control agreements. > > For example, the Treaty between the United States and Russian Federation on Strategic Offensive Reductions of 2002 (also known as the Moscow Treaty) contained an explicit, 10 year sunset provision in Article IV, permitting continued extensions but not requiring them. The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) and its successor, New START, contained similar provisions. The first START was set to expire after 15 years (and, in fact, did) and New START is expected to expire in 2020, unless it is extended. Both treaties also contain withdrawal provisions. > [@](#): > > [Under the contemplated deal] Iran would agree to fully implement its IAEA Safeguards Agreement and the Additional Protocol, which in combination provide inspectors with access to all declared nuclear facilities as well as any suspected undeclared facilities. **Iran would have the obligation to cooperate with the IAEA in this way in perpetuity, meaning that even after the sunset period expires there will be far more intrusive inspections of Iran’s nuclear program than there were before the JPOA was signed.** [bolding mine] This is a crucial issue and one many of the critics of a nuclear deal with Iran seem confused about. For example, a recent op-ed in the Washington Post claimed that after the sunset period is over, there will “no legal limits on Iran’s nuclear ambitions.” This is factually inaccurate. > [@](#): > > Iran would be treated like any other NPT state party in compliance with its international obligations after the term of the agreement formally ends. Nowhere has the United States agreed that Iran would be immunized forever more from international scrutiny after a deal eventually ends. **Should Iran attempt to move to nuclear weapons after that time, it would be acting in contravention of its NPT obligations. Among other things, this would permit the United States and its partners to respond with a range of options, up to and including the use of military force.** A sunset would therefore cut both ways for Iran, creating a possibility for Iran to test the fences again in pursuit of a nuclear option, but only with the potential for future costs and risks that any Iranian leader would have to respect. > [@](#): > > Iran’s history of obfuscation and willful defiance of its international nuclear obligations for 30 years are difficult to get past, especially when considering Iran’s many other activities that are antithetical to U.S. interests and a common sense of decency. > > However, the simple reality is that Iran will not accept a deal in which it is a second-class NPT citizen forever and insisting upon it would spell the end of the negotiating process. The sunset provision that the negotiators have in mind would address U.S. national security requirements as well as protect the interests of our allies and partners. We should not jeopardize a sufficient solution for an unachievable ideal one. ---
**Author:** ![Steken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2015, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/netanyahus-speech-on-iran/714132/95 "2015-03-06T23:49:08Z")
> [@Donald\_Rump](#): > > The [National Interest](http://nationalinterest.org/feature/false-flag-the-fake-uproar-over-irans-nuclear-sunset-12370) has a good piece of commentary that addresses–in my view, conclusively–the sunset clause issue. The writer is Richard Nephew, a former member of the US negotiating team with Iran and Director for Iran at the National Security Council. Excellent read, thanks for sharing. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2015, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/netanyahus-speech-on-iran/714132/96 "2015-03-07T00:42:50Z")
It sounds like the hatred of the treaty in the West, then, is not for what Iran could do, but for what it would constrain the “bomb Iran” faction from doing. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2015, 11:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/netanyahus-speech-on-iran/714132/97 "2015-03-07T11:10:45Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Do you see any pol in Israel who could be that guy? I’m of the opinion that if you keep on firing politicians, eventually you’ll reach someone qualified. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2015, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/netanyahus-speech-on-iran/714132/98 "2015-03-07T20:58:50Z")
Former Mossad chief Meir Dagan says that Netanyahu [made false claims](http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/former-mossad-chief-netanyahu-lied-to-congress) about Iran in his speech. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2015, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/netanyahus-speech-on-iran/714132/99 "2015-03-07T21:19:42Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > I’m of the opinion that if you keep on firing politicians, eventually you’ll reach someone qualified. What’s that definition of insanity again? ☺ ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2015, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/netanyahus-speech-on-iran/714132/100 "2015-03-07T23:02:08Z")
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