# Nevada Caucuses Discussion **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 12, 2020, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822 "2020-02-12T16:18:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2020, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/1 "2020-02-12T16:18:46Z")
It looks like a 3 person race now. You have Bernie the non-Democrat and Pete the Mayor in the lead. Klobuchar had a great showing in NH and now the question is was that a one-off or does she have some momentum. Joe “Git off mah lawn!” Biden is done and Elizabeth “Sure I drink beer” Warren is on her way out. Is there anything that can happen in Nevada to change that? ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2020, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/2 "2020-02-12T17:26:54Z")
Who the hell knows? The polls show Sanders leading with Biden the only other real contender, but there haven’t been any polls in the last month! Clearly those campaigns are still way ahead of the others in terms of organizational infrastructure, though. Nevada Democratic kingpin Harry Reid hasn’t made an endorsement yet, that could shift a lot of votes. What I’m most interested in: the polls are saying that Latinos are part of Bernie’s base now. It will be interesting to see if that holds up when actual voting starts; if so, that will be a huge asset to him there (and more importantly, in pretty much all of the biggest States). ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2020, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/3 "2020-02-12T17:34:48Z")
Here’s a good article form the last election about how terrible Nevada polling is: > **[Why Nevada Polls Are Bad](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-nevada-polls-are-bad/)** > > The whiplash induced by the American presidential primary season is harrowing. One week we are inundated by the snowy charms of Iowa and New Hampshire, beholden… ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2020, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/4 "2020-02-12T17:53:29Z")
For those of you interested in details, here’s “the quick version” of how Nevada is different from Iowa: There are only two rounds of voting - if a candidate does not get at least 15% of the vote at a location in the first round, those voters must either switch to one that did get at least 15% or leave the caucus. There is no “trying to get other voters to join you” like there was in Iowa. Also, if I am reading the delegate selection plan right, there are no “state delegate equivalents” involved; the national convention delegates will be based on the actual number of votes at the precinct caucuses. Note that Nevada has four Congressional districts; district 1 (pretty much the Las Vegas area) gets 5 delegates, each of the other three get 6, and there are 13 delegates based on the statewide totals. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2020, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/5 "2020-02-12T18:00:54Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > .. > > Joe “Git off mah lawn!” Biden is done … No one expected Joe to do well in Iowa or NH. His real test is in SD. Caucuses are weird things and Sanders will do better there. ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2020, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/6 "2020-02-12T18:03:46Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > No one expected Joe to do well in Iowa or NH. His real test is in SD. I think there’s a difference between “not doing well” and “completely bombing.” It’s not a good look especially when his whole message just seems to be “I’m the guy who will win an election against Trump.” ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2020, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/7 "2020-02-12T18:07:29Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > No one expected Joe to do well in Iowa or NH. His real test is in SD. > > Caucuses are weird things and Sanders will do better there. I can’t believe anyone believed Biden would be #3 and barely viable in IA and last place with no delegates in NH. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2020, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/8 "2020-02-12T18:14:45Z")
Pete is fluent in Spanish which should help. He’s got 100 staffers now after reallocation of staff from IA and NH. New ad buy spotlighting Medicare for all who want it, which should be popular with the unions there that already have Cadillac health plans. A lot of unions sacrifice some wage increases for those health plans. > **[Heading into Nevada’s caucus, Buttigieg has doubled his campaign staff, is...](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/heading-into-nevadas-caucus-buttigieg-has-doubled-his-campaign-staff-is-boosting-investment-in-ads)** > > Former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg has roughly doubled the size of his Nevada team to nearly 100 staffers ahead of the state’s Feb. 22 caucus, his campaign officially announced on Wednesday. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2020, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/9 "2020-02-12T18:46:29Z")
> [@That\_Don\_Guy](#): > > There are only two rounds of voting - if a candidate does not get at least 15% of the vote at a location in the first round, those voters must either switch to one that did get at least 15% or leave the caucus. There is no “trying to get other voters to join you” like there was in Iowa. This might be the biggest thing about NV then. Assuming Klobucher gets 15% out of the gate, seeing who the Biden and Warren (assuming less than 15%) supporters migrate to. ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2020, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/10 "2020-02-12T18:49:02Z")
> [@That\_Don\_Guy](#): > > There are only two rounds of voting - if a candidate does not get at least 15% of the vote at a location in the first round, those voters must either switch to one that did get at least 15% or leave the caucus. There is no “trying to get other voters to join you” like there was in Iowa. Didn’t they get rid of the whole “trying to get other voters to join you” thing in Iowa this year, which was part of the confusion? Also, speaking of Iowa, Nevada was going to use the same app that caused all the problems but now aren’t. But changing plans with only a few weeks to go might just cause a whole nother batch of problems. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2020, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/11 "2020-02-12T19:13:24Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > I can’t believe anyone believed Biden would be #3 and barely viable in IA and last place with no delegates in NH. Actually they thought he would be 3rd in Iowa. No one, even Joe, thought he would do well in those two states. Come back after SD. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2020, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/12 "2020-02-12T19:34:45Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Actually they thought he would be 3rd in Iowa. No one, even Joe, thought he would do well in those two states. Come back after SD. Notice the conjunction AND Also, I don’t understand why you think we need to wait all the way to [June 2nd](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_South_Dakota_Democratic_primary) to see how “Crazy Uncle Joe” Biden does in the primary. It’s pretty much over by then. ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2020, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/13 "2020-02-12T19:38:40Z")
> [@AlsoNamedBort](#): > > Didn’t they get rid of the whole “trying to get other voters to join you” thing in Iowa this year, which was part of the confusion? Not exactly. What they got rid of was the ability to get people who had voted for somebody with at least 15% to join you. Starting this year, only voters for candidates below 15% could switch. ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2020, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/14 "2020-02-12T19:39:58Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Actually they thought he would be 3rd in Iowa. No one, even Joe, thought he would do well in those two states. Come back after SD. SD (South Dakota), or SC (South Carolina)? You have said SD twice. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2020, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/15 "2020-02-12T19:45:57Z")
The desperate spin here is amusing. 538 predicted Biden would finish a close second with 26% of the vote in Iowa. He got 14% and finished barely above fifth. That caused his expectations to be much lower in NH, where he was projected to get 12% and finish fourth. Yet he actually managed to do even worse! ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2020, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/16 "2020-02-12T19:48:12Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > I can’t believe anyone believed Biden would be #3 and barely viable in IA and last place with no delegates in NH. I know there was some trouble with the vote counting, but didn’t Biden end up in 4th place in Iowa? 😕 Count me in with those who think Biden is toast. Rather than Nevada, however, I think the leap day primary in South Carolina will determine just how badly Uncle Joe is doing. Unless he comes in a strong second or better there he needs to drop out to help avoid an even bigger split in the moderate lane than we already have. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2020, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/17 "2020-02-12T20:00:31Z")
> [@AlsoNamedBort](#): > > Didn’t they get rid of the whole “trying to get other voters to join you” thing in Iowa this year, which was part of the confusion? > > Also, speaking of Iowa, Nevada was going to use the same app that caused all the problems but now aren’t. But changing plans with only a few weeks to go might just cause a whole nother batch of problems. Well, the NV caucus is a Saturday afternoon so it’s not the same as prime time Monday with all the eyes of the nation watching you. They’ve eliminated the multiple rounds so you can’t constantly try to make a candidate viable. You either have to go with a viable candidate or go home. God, I hate caucuses ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2020, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/18 "2020-02-12T20:03:31Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > I know there was some trouble with the vote counting, but didn’t Biden end up in 4th place in Iowa? 😕 > > Count me in with those who think Biden is toast. Rather than Nevada, however, I think the leap day primary in South Carolina will determine just how badly Uncle Joe is doing. Unless he comes in a strong second or better there he needs to drop out to help avoid an even bigger split in the moderate lane than we already have. And he really can’t. I can’t see him dropping out the night South Carolina votes come in. Super Tuesday is 2 days away then and early voting has been going on. Also, pretty much all the resources have been spent. It’s really too bad SC didn’t move up the primary to Tuesday. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2020, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/19 "2020-02-12T20:51:10Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > And he really can’t. I can’t see him dropping out the night South Carolina votes come in. Super Tuesday is 2 days away then and early voting has been going on. Also, pretty much all the resources have been spent. It’s really too bad SC didn’t move up the primary to Tuesday. If this is the case, then it will depend on Nevada. If he finishes fourth or worse I hope he throws in the towel. For the good of the party and to have the best chance of beating Trump, the weakest candidates need to throw in the towel, the sooner the better. ---
**Author:** ![thelurkinghorror](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/7c8e57/32.png) [@thelurkinghorror](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thelurkinghorror)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2020, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/20 "2020-02-12T21:19:23Z")
They’re doing early voting this year. The main early vote day is Tuesday, in that time you can provide a ranked list of your candidates and theoretically leave, without doing much caucus stuff. The 2016 R caucus was similar but lines were long, so “theoretically” should be emphasized. I don’t know what to expect as Las Vegas politics are a world away, but I’m not counting Biden out completely. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822.md?page=2)