# Nevada Caucuses Discussion **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 12, 2020, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822 "2020-02-12T16:18:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2020, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/41 "2020-02-18T01:21:49Z")
OK, the Point Blank Political poll is up on 538. They’re unrated. 2/13-15, 256 LV. A _third_ Nevada poll from the past week is up at 538 (man, this is a _flood_ of polling by Nevada standards), this one from B/C-rated Data for Progress (2/12-15, 766 LV): Sanders 35 Warren 16 Buttigieg 15 Biden 14 Steyer 10 Klobuchar 9 Gabbard 2 ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2020, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/42 "2020-02-18T16:56:40Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > Who the fuck is Point Blank Political and why should I give them any credence? It says right in their title: “Among The Top Political Consulting Firms” TOP. MEN. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2020, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/43 "2020-02-18T17:15:49Z")
What is the point of Nevada, Iowa and NH anyway? Huge investments in ground games. Grass roots support. Debate after townhall. Night show appearances. But did anybody get any sticky results? No. And Bloomberg drops in and fucks up all the poll standings for everyone. Fuck it. Let’s see what happens on Super Tuesday. I’ll be watching Netflix until then. ---
**Author:** ![Ann\_Hedonia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ann_hedonia/32/319_2.png) [@Ann\_Hedonia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ann_Hedonia)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2020, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/44 "2020-02-18T17:34:38Z")
Well, Bernie has a lot of support from the top. > Who said bipartisanship is dead? > **[Here's why Trump keeps pumping up Bernie Sanders | CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/03/opinions/trump-bernie-election-avlon/index.html)** > > The Trump team has been pumping up Bernie Sanders. John Avlon writes that it's not because they think he's a better candidate with better policies, but because they actually hope to run -- and win -- against him. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2020, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/45 "2020-02-18T17:51:37Z")
You know, if Trump fires Pence, makes Sander VP, and puts him in charge of replacing ObamaCare, the entire country will unite as MAGA-Bros. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2020, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/46 "2020-02-18T17:52:58Z")
This will likely impact the caucus: [Bloomberg makes debate stage, facing Dem rivals for 1st time](https://apnews.com/11669588925e27f7fadc20b227936c34) > [@](#): > > Billionaire Mike Bloomberg has qualified for the upcoming Democratic presidential debate, marking the first time he’ll stand alongside the rivals he has so far avoided by bypassing the early voting states and using his personal fortune to define himself through television ads. > > Full Coverage: Election 2020 > A new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll published Tuesday shows Bloomberg with 19% support nationally in the Democratic nominating contest. > > The former New York City mayor, who launched his presidential campaign in November, will appear in Wednesday’s debate in Las Vegas alongside former Vice President Joe Biden, Sens. Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar and former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg. Fellow billionaire and philanthropist Tom Steyer is still hoping to qualify. ---
**Author:** ![Ann\_Hedonia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ann_hedonia/32/319_2.png) [@Ann\_Hedonia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ann_Hedonia)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2020, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/47 "2020-02-18T18:19:01Z")
> [@QuickSilver](#): > > What is the point of Nevada, Iowa and NH anyway? Huge investments in ground games. Grass roots support. Debate after townhall. Night show appearances. But did anybody get any sticky results? No. And Bloomberg drops in and fucks up all the poll standings for everyone. Fuck it. Let’s see what happens on Super Tuesday. I’ll be watching Netflix until then. I agree. I’m especially done with these caucuses. Because I think they’ve always been incredibly loose and inaccurate, nothing more than a rough head count. But no one every questioned the results. Until the first time someone tried to apply some metrics that included a way to test the results. And it all fell apart because it had never worked. I expect Nevada to be a similar clusterfuck, if not worse. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2020, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/48 "2020-02-19T17:31:24Z")
If the latest polls from 538 are to believed it looks like a distinct possibility that Sanders will be the only one above the 15% viability threshold. Unless someone has a concentrated pocket of support in a district Sanders may walk away with all of the delegate or Biden and Warren may get one or two. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2020, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/49 "2020-02-19T17:33:52Z")
At this point I don’t know what to believe. The only thing that will probably be good in NV is that there will likely be a lot of areas with only one or two viable candidates, so that should help with the counting. Two non viables can’t make a viable. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2020, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/50 "2020-02-19T17:36:47Z")
I think Biden will not get as much support as hoped or projected. I think Buttigieg will get more support than is expected or projected. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2020, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/51 "2020-02-19T17:42:08Z")
At this point I don’t know what to believe. The only thing that will probably be good in NV is that there will likely be a lot of areas with only one or two viable candidates, so that should help with the counting. Two non viables can’t make a viable. ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2020, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/52 "2020-02-19T21:11:20Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > If the latest polls from 538 are to believed it looks like a distinct possibility that Sanders will be the only one above the 15% viability threshold. Unless someone has a concentrated pocket of support in a district Sanders may walk away with all of the delegate or Biden and Warren may get one or two. There are a few things you need to keep in mind. First, if a precinct splits, say, 30% for Sanders, 15% for Biden, and everybody else under 15%, then the 55% that didn’t vote for either one can switch to one of those two. If most of them go to Biden, it could end up being a 50-50 split in that precinct. Second, I said “can” switch. If a voter’s candidate does not get 15% in the first round of voting, they can choose to leave the caucus rather than vote for someone else. Third - there is an exception to this; if, say, Sanders gets 30% and nobody else gets 15%, then there is no second round of voting; while Sanders is the only one with votes there, nobody who didn’t vote for him can change their mind. [QUOTE=Nevada 2020 Democratic National Convention Delegate Selection Plan, Rule III.A.12] Upon the conclusion of the announcement of results from the initial alignment, **if and only if, there are any non-viable preference groups,** the eligible caucus attendees in those groups will have up to another fifteen (15) minutes to realign with a viable group. [/QUOTE] Being able, or not able, to switch, is important, as Nevada awards its delegates to the national convention based on the “head count” at the caucuses. In effect, it is a primary with (usually) a two-step preferential vote. I have a feeling that, if there are districts where Sanders is the only one with at least 15%, there will be different interpretations as to counting how many people actually voted for him. “100 people showed up, and 30 voted for Sanders, while nobody else got at least 15, so Bernie is credited with all 100 votes.” “No, he only gets 30 votes, since there was no second round.” “It is implied that, since he was the only candidate, everybody would now vote for him.” “No, because the other 70 could also go home and not be counted.” ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2020, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/53 "2020-02-21T16:16:41Z")
> [@That\_Don\_Guy](#): > > Third - there is an exception to this; if, say, Sanders gets 30% and nobody else gets 15%, then there is no second round of voting; while Sanders is the only one with votes there, nobody who didn’t vote for him can change their mind. This is what I was thinking when I said Sanders may get all of the delegates. Caucuses are tomorrow. When do y’all think we may have full results? ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2020, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/54 "2020-02-21T16:18:42Z")
Here’s a bit of trivia: there will be no coin tosses in case of a tie when determining delegates to the county conventions. Instead, in true Las Vegas fashion, all ties will be broken by drawing from a deck of cards; high card wins, with ties broken by the order of suits as used in bridge (i.e. spades, then hearts, then diamonds, then clubs). > [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > Caucuses are tomorrow. When do y’all think we may have full results? If you mean head counts, I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re done by tomorrow night. Supposedly, head counts are what will be used to determine national convention delegates. The only problem might be, integrating the early votes into the total. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2020, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/55 "2020-02-21T16:19:47Z")
have they learned basic counting unlike Iowa? Maybe they can hire 6th graders to count. ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2020, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/56 "2020-02-21T16:25:20Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > have they learned basic counting unlike Iowa? Maybe they can hire 6th graders to count. In Iowa, each precinct had to determine the number of county convention delegates each candidate got in that precinct, then convert those to “state delegate equivalents.” This is not supposed to be the case in Nevada. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2020, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/57 "2020-02-21T16:30:07Z")
Nevada also switched out the bad app used in Iowa for a simple i-pad spreadsheet setup. ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2020, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/58 "2020-02-21T16:35:27Z")
> [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#): > > [‘A complete disaster’: Fears grow over potential Nevada caucus malfunction > > Volunteers complain of poor training for a vote-reporting system that was adopted on the fly.]([https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/16/nevada-avoid-iowa-caucus-mess-115437](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/16/nevada-avoid-iowa-caucus-mess-115437)) from Politico > > This is not sounding good. Hopefully, things turn out better than predicted here. Don’t worry, they have a [143 slide instruction manual](https://gizmodo.com/this-143-slide-instruction-manual-for-the-nevada-democr-1841819386) for them. ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2020, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/59 "2020-02-21T17:01:32Z")
> [@That\_Don\_Guy](#): > > Being able, or not able, to switch, is important, as Nevada awards its delegates to the national convention based on the “head count” at the caucuses. In effect, it is a primary with (usually) a two-step preferential vote. > > I have a feeling that, if there are districts where Sanders is the only one with at least 15%, there will be different interpretations as to counting how many people actually voted for him. > “100 people showed up, and 30 voted for Sanders, while nobody else got at least 15, so Bernie is credited with all 100 votes.” > “No, he only gets 30 votes, since there was no second round.” > “It is implied that, since he was the only candidate, everybody would now vote for him.” > “No, because the other 70 could also go home and not be counted.” Er, what’s that? “Rules change,” you say? “National convention delegates are now based on county convention delegate counts,” is it? Here’s what the rule was in June: “The national convention delegates elected…shall be allocated in proportion to **the percentage of the caucus vote** won in that district by each preference at the first determining step.” Here’s what it is now: “The national convention delegates elected…shall be allocated in proportion to **the percentage of the county convention delegates** won in that district by each preference at the first determining step.” I guess I wasn’t alone in noticing that there could be a problem with only one candidate being viable at a precinct, and it is treated as if nobody else showed up. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2020, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822/60 "2020-02-22T20:46:32Z")
Betting markets right now are overwhelmingly betting on a Sanders win of at least 10 points. We’ll see if they know something that hasn’t been officially released yet. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-caucuses-discussion/847822.md?page=4)