# Nevada Republican Caucus **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 23, 2016, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-republican-caucus/746919 "2016-02-23T22:46:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Starving\_Artist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aeb1de/32.png) [@Starving\_Artist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Starving_Artist)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 5:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-republican-caucus/746919/21 "2016-02-24T05:07:56Z")
CNN is calling it for Trump. No percentages so far. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 5:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-republican-caucus/746919/22 "2016-02-24T05:11:17Z")
[Nevada GOP called it for Trump](http://nevadagop.org/nevada-republican-presidential-caucus-results/) ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 5:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-republican-caucus/746919/23 "2016-02-24T05:11:59Z")
Looks like Rubes is creating some distance between second and third place now. With 4.5% reporting, he’s got 24.9% to TC’s 21%. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 5:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-republican-caucus/746919/24 "2016-02-24T05:18:32Z")
Kasich is doing terrible (\<4%). As much as I like the Trumpian chaos his continued existance brings, I don’t know if he’s going to make it to Super Tuesday. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 5:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-republican-caucus/746919/25 "2016-02-24T05:19:55Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > Kasich is doing terrible (\<4%). As much as I like the Trumpian chaos his continued existance brings, I don’t know if he’s going to make it to Super Tuesday. Kasich apparently skipped Nevada. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 5:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-republican-caucus/746919/26 "2016-02-24T05:35:52Z")
Huckabee is beating Fiorina 2:1! I guess the NV GOP kept the old names on the ballot because the candidates had paid to be on the ballot. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 5:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-republican-caucus/746919/27 "2016-02-24T05:49:08Z")
It will be interesting to see how Rubio spins his fourth straight loss into a win. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Pig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/c57346/32.png) [@Little\_Pig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Pig)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 5:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-republican-caucus/746919/28 "2016-02-24T05:52:22Z")
[“I have spent my life perplexed about exactly how Hitler could have come to power in Germany. Watching Donald Trump’s rise, I now understand.”](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/moment-of-truth-we-must-stop-trump/2016/02/21/0172e788-d8a7-11e5-925f-1d10062cc82d_story.html) ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 6:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-republican-caucus/746919/29 "2016-02-24T06:08:03Z")
> [@Merneith](#): > > People were wondering why Nevada GOP switched to a caucus system. This is it, right here. No one will ever know who “wins” this system. No recount is going to be possible. No pesky need to get voters to the polls or rig election machines. No paper trail. Hundreds of people just text stuff to the central party and the Party announces the winner. You think the Nevada GOP engineered a Trump win? That seems pretty unlikely. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 6:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-republican-caucus/746919/30 "2016-02-24T06:15:17Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > It will be interesting to see how Rubio spins his fourth straight loss into a win. He can’t do better than Kasich did after S.C. [Kasich: GOP establishment should “consolidate my way”.](http://www.cbsnews.com/news/john-kasich-gop-establishment-should-consolidate-my-way/) > [@](#): > > John Kasich said Sunday after his fifth-place finish in South Carolina that establishment Republicans looking to coalesce behind a single anti-Trump candidate should look to him, not Marco Rubio. This after finishing 5th. Ballsy. Or delusional. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 6:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-republican-caucus/746919/31 "2016-02-24T06:20:15Z")
Ted Cruz just said he’s the only one who’s beaten Donald Trump, so he’s the true alternative. Yeah, because third place is so much better than second. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 6:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-republican-caucus/746919/32 "2016-02-24T06:22:28Z")
I don’t see how Trump does not become the nominee. The only state he may lose is Texas, and I am not really confident in that assertion. I think the Republican establishment must be strategizing over whether or not they should embrace Trump at this point. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 6:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-republican-caucus/746919/33 "2016-02-24T06:23:33Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > You think the Nevada GOP engineered a Trump win? That seems pretty unlikely. I agree that seems unlikely; I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that Trump engineered a Trump win, tho. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 6:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-republican-caucus/746919/34 "2016-02-24T06:26:14Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > I don’t see how Trump does not become the nominee. The only state he may lose is Texas, and I am not really confident in that assertion. > > I think the Republican establishment must be strategizing over whether or not they should embrace Trump at this point. I predict that Trump will not lose another primary and will coast to the GOP nomination. I also predict that sales, downloads and online views of [Sinclair Lewis’s _It Can’t Happen Here_](http://gutenberg.net.au/ebooks03/0301001h.html) will show no significant increase. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 6:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-republican-caucus/746919/35 "2016-02-24T06:41:31Z")
I think he could drop Texas to Cruz and maybe 1-2 states to Rubio, which will give both men all the justification they need to stay in, keeping it a 3 way race. Kasich unlike Bush appears to be much more surly about the prospect of dropping out. He’s repeatedly pointed out that the guy they want him to drop out to, Marco Rubio, has yet to win a primary, and how he too is trailing the Donald in his home state, and by more than Kasich is trailing Donald in Ohio. He’s continued to pick up some backers and even some endorsements this week. But polling is out there–Kasich’s strategy to focus on the Super Tuesday states outside of the Deep South where he believes his message will have more appeal isn’t working, he may be performing somewhat better in those state polls than in the deep south, but he’s nowhere close to winning those states. So he cannot win a single Super Tuesday state, which leaves him staying in until Ohio which he could maybe win (and it’s winner take all, so if he doesn’t, he gets nothing.) I don’t really get it, but unlike Bush who appears to have dropped out at the first sign he genuinely, truly, had no path to the nomination, Kasich is a good bit past that point now and is being obstinate. I used to think this late consolidation would be part of why Trump would win, but to be honest as strong as he’s been, and how Trump has gained a couple points in the most recent national poll without Bush in it, I don’t even really think Trump loses any conceivable 1v1 at this point. The % of the remaining candidate’s voters who have Trump as their #2 pick is high enough, that given his ~15pt lead above his closest competitors he likely gets pushed into the mid-high 40s even in a 1v1. But either of the guys who is likely to face him in a 1v1 will still have a lot of states left where they trail Trump, because the strongest states for Trump actually aren’t the south, at least based on the scarce polling we have now–it’s the Northeast and the Midwest, so while this hyptothetical 1v1 match up post Super Tuesday might have Trump slightly behind, the races are still state races, and Trump will be ahead in a lot of the larger states left to still run primaries. Plus, a 1v1 anytime in March just isn’t happening, anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 6:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-republican-caucus/746919/36 "2016-02-24T06:47:37Z")
Is _The Onion_ being prescient again with [their piece from 2 February 2016: _Biggest Campaign Gaffes So Far_](http://www.theonion.com/graphic/biggest-campaign-gaffes-so-far-52279)?[ > [@](#): > > [ul]Feb. 2016: American people fail to take threat of Donald Trump becoming president seriously in the final month they could have done something about it[/ul] ]([http://www.theonion.com/graphic/biggest-campaign-gaffes-so-far-52279](http://www.theonion.com/graphic/biggest-campaign-gaffes-so-far-52279)) ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 6:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-republican-caucus/746919/37 "2016-02-24T06:56:34Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > I don’t see how Trump does not become the nominee. The only state he may lose is Texas, and I am not really confident in that assertion. I’ve had fun making fun of it, but Rubio’s “second place winner” strategy isn’t totally hopeless. Most of the winner take all states are at the back of the calendar, so if uses early second place finishes to establish himself as the second man in a two-man race and then uses that position to consolidate the anti-Trump vote and launch some more effective attacks on Trump, he can still make up for the delegates he was missing out on in earlier races. So I don’t think nominee Trump is a certainty at this point. But its getting kinda late in the game to move on to phase two of Rubio’s strategy. And even with the spotlight being focused on him as the anti-Trump, its kinda hard to see Rubio having enough charisma to leverage that into an advantage. ---
**Author:** ![TonySinclair](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/49beb7/32.png) [@TonySinclair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TonySinclair)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 7:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-republican-caucus/746919/38 "2016-02-24T07:45:18Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > I’ve had fun making fun of it, but Rubio’s “second place winner” strategy isn’t totally hopeless. Most of the winner take all states are at the back of the calendar, so if uses early second place finishes to establish himself as the second man in a two-man race and then uses that position to consolidate the anti-Trump vote and launch some more effective attacks on Trump, he can still make up for the delegates he was missing out on in earlier races. That doesn’t seem likely after tonight, with Trump at 43% as I write this (29% of precincts reporting). Cruz has 23%, so less than a third of Cruz’s supporters puts Trump over 50%, even if Rubio gets 2/3 of Cruz and 100% of everybody else. I thought my contempt for the American electorate had peaked in 2004, when they re-elected Bush as president, a year after electing Ahnold as gov of CA. But at least you had to do a bit of research to see through Bush. Trump’s stupidity and hypocrisy is right out in the open. If I live to be a thousand, I’ll never understand people. ---
**Author:** ![Tangent](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tangent/32/3098_2.png) [@Tangent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tangent)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 7:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-republican-caucus/746919/39 "2016-02-24T07:55:41Z")
Cruz has a slight lead on Rubio right now, with about 35% of the precincts reporting. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 8:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-republican-caucus/746919/40 "2016-02-24T08:08:38Z")
> [@TonySinclair](#): > > That doesn’t seem likely after tonight, with Trump at 43% as I write this (29% of precincts reporting). Cruz has 23%, so less than a third of Cruz’s supporters puts Trump over 50%, even if Rubio gets 2/3 of Cruz and 100% of everybody else. Trump was polling better in NV then most other states. So if your Rubio, you presumably hope that in the next few States his lead will be lower. But aside from just consolidation of actual voters, winnowing down to an effective two man race makes the choice starker, and ideally will focus both Rubio and the establishment on attacking Trump. So ideally, they can strip voters from the Trump column, rather then just rely on the likely inadequate Bush/Kaisich/Christie vote moving to Rubio. But again, I’m just arguing that the situation isn’t hopeless. Trump still has a sizable lead in most states and Rubio seems, if anything, likely to be an even more overmatched sparring partner for Trump then Jeb? was. So while I think Rubio still can pull it off, I certainly wouldn’t want to put money on it. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-republican-caucus/746919.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nevada-republican-caucus/746919.md?page=3)