# Never mind counting the votes, we have a winner! **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [February 10, 2008, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/never-mind-counting-the-votes-we-have-a-winner/437077 "2008-02-10T21:40:22Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![The\_Hamster\_King](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8edcca/32.png) [@The\_Hamster\_King](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Hamster_King)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/never-mind-counting-the-votes-we-have-a-winner/437077/1 "2008-02-10T21:40:22Z")
The Washington State Republican Party did something very, very odd yesterday. They sent out [a press release](http://www.wsrp.org/News/Read.aspx?ID=7043) announcing that McCain had won the state 25.5% to Huckabee’s 23.7%. What’s odd about the press release is that it also announces that only 87.2% of the precincts have been counted! Considering that McCain and Huckabee are only 1.8 points apart, and Huckabee actually led McCain at one point during the count, isn’t it kind of strange to pick a winner while there are still enough outstanding uncounted votes to change the outcome? This isn’t a news outlet predicting the result – this is a press release from the actual body holding the election. Huckabee is [raising a stink](http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2004175292_webhuckabee10.html), as he probably should. What is going on in the Washington Republican Party? Is the leadership so pro-McCain they tried to prevent Huckabee from embarassing the front-runner by winning three primaries after the contest is supposedly over? ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/never-mind-counting-the-votes-we-have-a-winner/437077/2 "2008-02-10T22:09:19Z")
It appears to be worse than stopping the counting --according to th [Seattle Times](http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2004175292_webhuckabee10.html) they went farther and stopped the **voting**. So I guess McCain wins – no uncounted votes to worry about. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/never-mind-counting-the-votes-we-have-a-winner/437077/3 "2008-02-10T22:42:34Z")
[QUOTE=Pochacco] What is going on in the Washington Republican Party? [/QUOTE] As I [mentioned over in GD](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=9460823#post9460823), they may be having trouble collecting the numbers from some of Washington’s remote mountain villages. We’ll see come monday, at which time they tell us they’ll have a ‘final’ report. I’m sure that the Washington GOP’s commitment to democracy is every bit as strong as the national party’s, so everything is bound to work out for the best. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Hamster\_King](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8edcca/32.png) [@The\_Hamster\_King](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Hamster_King)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/never-mind-counting-the-votes-we-have-a-winner/437077/4 "2008-02-10T22:45:12Z")
[QUOTE=Squink] As I [mentioned over in GD](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=9460823#post9460823), they may be having trouble collecting the numbers from some of Washington’s remote mountain villages. [/QUOTE] That’s perfectly understandable. If it takes more time, it takes more time. The weird thing is announcing McCain as the winner when the contest is still undecided. ---
**Author:** ![Tim\_T-Bonham.net](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/46a35a/32.png) [@Tim\_T-Bonham.net](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tim_T-Bonham.net)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/never-mind-counting-the-votes-we-have-a-winner/437077/5 "2008-02-10T22:53:45Z")
[QUOTE=Pochacco] The Washington State Republican Party did something very, very odd yesterday. They sent out [a press release](http://www.wsrp.org/News/Read.aspx?ID=7043) announcing that McCain had won the state 25.5% to Huckabee’s 23.7%. What’s odd about the press release is that it also announces that only 87.2% of the precincts have been counted! [/QUOTE] Oh, come on! Anybody who’s worked in elections, or polling, or sampling, or even sending surveys to members of your church choir, knows that it is quite possible to accurately project the final result based on a small early return. In voting, as long as you know where the unreturned precincts are, and their past history, you can pretty accurately predict the results. Nationwide polls are done using about 1,000 people to predict for a 300 million population, and are generally fairly accurate. At work, we often base decisions on surveys when only a third of our employees return them. And organizations I belong too commonly have annual elections with less than half the members returning ballots. Much as I hate to defend republicans, I don’t see declaring a result based on 7/8ths of the total as being unreasonable. ---
**Author:** ![Mister\_Rik](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mister_rik/32/491_2.png) [@Mister\_Rik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mister_Rik)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/never-mind-counting-the-votes-we-have-a-winner/437077/6 "2008-02-10T22:55:28Z")
Interesting. I dropped my mail-in ballot in the box at the courthouse on the 5th, but unless I seriously misread something, the ballot deadline is the 19th. Since we switched to vote-by-mail here (I’m not sure if this is statewide, or just my county), ballots have arrived in my mailbox 2-4 weeks before Election Day. This primary ballot only showed up a few days before the 5th, which would fit the normal timeline for a Feb. 19 Election Day. It seems we’ve also got a problem with many ballots being declared invalid (for both parties), due to the requirement that the voter check a box for the appropriate “Party Oath” certifying either “I’m a Democrat…” or “I’m a Republican…” and swearing that I’m not voting in the other party’s primary. Apparently, a lot of people (presumably independent voters) elected to not check either box, or else didn’t notice it, and this has rendered their ballots invalid. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/never-mind-counting-the-votes-we-have-a-winner/437077/7 "2008-02-10T23:05:08Z")
Oh, dear. Chaos and disruption in the Republican Party. Oh, my. How badly will this hurt the Democrats? They should have stuck with the old, reliable Republican standard: one dollar, one vote! ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/never-mind-counting-the-votes-we-have-a-winner/437077/8 "2008-02-10T23:06:40Z")
[QUOTE=t-bonham@scc.net] …Much as I hate to defend republicans, I don’t see declaring a result based on 7/8ths of the total as being unreasonable. [/QUOTE] The hell? With a margin of less than one percent between them? Steel cage death match. Only way to be really fair. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Hamster\_King](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8edcca/32.png) [@The\_Hamster\_King](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Hamster_King)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/never-mind-counting-the-votes-we-have-a-winner/437077/9 "2008-02-10T23:19:59Z")
[QUOTE=t-bonham@scc.net] Oh, come on! Anybody who’s worked in elections, or polling, or sampling, or even sending surveys to members of your church choir, knows that it is quite possible to accurately project the final result based on a small early return. [/QUOTE] Not in this election. The polls have been all over the place in this race. Two months ago who would have predicted that Mike Huckabee would trounce Rudy Guiliani? The only was to know for sure what the people really want is to count the votes. > [@](#): > > In voting, as long as you know where the unreturned precincts are, and their past history, you can pretty accurately predict the results. Within less than 2 percentage points? That’s the margin we’re talking about here. If McCain had won a big blow-out, sure, call it early, what difference does it make? But the two of them were running neck and neck. > [@](#): > > Nationwide polls are done using about 1,000 people to predict for a 300 million population, and are generally fairly accurate. At work, we often base decisions on surveys when only a third of our employees return them. And organizations I belong too commonly have annual elections with less than half the members returning ballots. Those nationwide polls use careful methodologies to get that level of accuracy and even then they’re sometimes wildly wrong. Suppose if \*\*Squink \*\* is right and the missing returns mostly come from mountain precincts. Don’t you think that it’s likely that those rural voters might have followed the pattern we’ve seen with rural voters across the country, i.e. break for Huckabee? A scientific poll would take things like that into account. Just cutting off the count doesn’t. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 11:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/never-mind-counting-the-votes-we-have-a-winner/437077/10 "2008-02-10T23:20:58Z")
[QUOTE=t-bonham@scc.net] Much as I hate to defend republicans, I don’t see declaring a result based on 7/8ths of the total as being unreasonable. [/QUOTE] Declaring an **expected** result is one thing; declaring an actual result is quite another. ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/never-mind-counting-the-votes-we-have-a-winner/437077/11 "2008-02-10T23:43:59Z")
I guess if Obama wins at the convention, we can go ahead and inaugurate him since he’s projected to beat McCain. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/never-mind-counting-the-votes-we-have-a-winner/437077/12 "2008-02-10T23:52:09Z")
[QUOTE=Pochacco] Huckabee is [raising a stink](http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2004175292_webhuckabee10.html) [/QUOTE] [A stinkier stink:](http://blog.seattletimes.nwsource.com/davidpostman/2008/02/huckabee_challenges_dubious_caucus_count_sends_lawyers_here.html) > [@](#): > > Huckabee challenges “dubious” caucus count, sends lawyers here > > Republican Mike Huckabee’s campaign is sending attorneys to Washington state to investigate what happened with the count of yesterday’s Republican presidential caucus. Campaign Chairman Ed Rollins issued this statement: > … > “It would be a disservice to every voter in Washington State to not pursue a full accounting of all votes cast. > > “This is not about Mike Huckabee. This is not about Senator John McCain. This is about the failings of the Washington State Republican Party. All Republicans should unite to demand an honest accounting of the votes, so that Republicans can have full confidence in the results, and full confidence in the eventual Republican nominee. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2008, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/never-mind-counting-the-votes-we-have-a-winner/437077/13 "2008-02-11T00:09:34Z")
Did Rollins have that same concern in 2000? ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2008, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/never-mind-counting-the-votes-we-have-a-winner/437077/14 "2008-02-11T00:23:24Z")
In 1492, Columbus sailed the ocean blue. ---
**Author:** ![Digital\_Stimulus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/aeb1de/32.png) [@Digital\_Stimulus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Digital_Stimulus)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2008, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/never-mind-counting-the-votes-we-have-a-winner/437077/15 "2008-02-11T01:05:04Z")
[QUOTE=Phase42] Since we switched to vote-by-mail here (I’m not sure if this is statewide, or just my county), ballots have arrived in my mailbox 2-4 weeks before Election Day. [/quote] I’m in Okanogan county (but did the Democrat caucus). From what the guy running the caucus said, the vote-by-mail was because our county had neither the funds nor the infrastructure to maintain so many polling places (in such an expansive area). I doubt that King County could claim a similar thing. > [@](#): > > It seems we’ve also got a problem with many ballots being declared invalid (for both parties), due to the requirement that the voter check a box for the appropriate “Party Oath” certifying either “I’m a Democrat…” or “I’m a Republican…” and swearing that I’m not voting in the other party’s primary. Yeah, this seems likely to have happened. Of course, it doesn’t affect the Democrats, as the primary doesn’t count. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2008, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/never-mind-counting-the-votes-we-have-a-winner/437077/16 "2008-02-11T01:19:30Z")
[QUOTE=Liberal] I guess if Obama wins at the convention, we can go ahead and inaugurate him since he’s projected to beat McCain. [/QUOTE] That would be _totally_ awesome! The Pubbies would got completely _apeshit!_ I’m in, what’s the plan? ---
**Author:** ![OttoDaFe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ottodafe/32/356_2.png) [@OttoDaFe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OttoDaFe)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2008, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/never-mind-counting-the-votes-we-have-a-winner/437077/17 "2008-02-11T01:23:33Z")
[QUOTE=Phase42] Interesting. I dropped my mail-in ballot in the box at the courthouse on the 5th, but unless I seriously misread something, the ballot deadline is the 19th. Since we switched to vote-by-mail here (I’m not sure if this is statewide, or just my county), ballots have arrived in my mailbox 2-4 weeks before Election Day. This primary ballot only showed up a few days before the 5th, which would fit the normal timeline for a Feb. 19 Election Day. \<. . .\> [/QUOTE] That’s for the primary — the current flap is about caucus results. ---
**Author:** ![Spavined\_Gelding](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/958977/32.png) [@Spavined\_Gelding](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spavined_Gelding)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2008, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/never-mind-counting-the-votes-we-have-a-winner/437077/18 "2008-02-11T02:10:49Z")
Some internationally famous but now deceased dictator is reputed to have once said that it wasn’t so important to control the vote as it was to control the vote counting. We may have seen that sort of thing before in out country’s history. It may have been the same party. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2008, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/never-mind-counting-the-votes-we-have-a-winner/437077/19 "2008-02-11T02:29:08Z")
[QUOTE=Squink] As I [mentioned over in GD](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=9460823#post9460823), they may be having trouble collecting the numbers from some of Washington’s remote mountain villages. We’ll see come monday, at which time they tell us they’ll have a ‘final’ report. I’m sure that the Washington GOP’s commitment to democracy is every bit as strong as the national party’s, so everything is bound to work out for the best. [/QUOTE] Not to be a smartass, but we aren’t talking about Afghanistan here. I’m sure that even in the remote backcountry of Washington State they have cars to transport the ballots to the county courthouse and they have phones, faxes, and emails to report the results.. I grew up following West Virginia politics and the late counties were never the remote ones with paper ballots. The late ones were the urban counties with the voting machine/counter/lever malfunctions. The rural ones always had the old ladies count the vote and report them within two hours of the polls’ closing.. ---
**Author:** ![Digital\_Stimulus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/aeb1de/32.png) [@Digital\_Stimulus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Digital_Stimulus)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2008, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/never-mind-counting-the-votes-we-have-a-winner/437077/20 "2008-02-11T02:50:26Z")
I just watched the local (Spokane, which, at 5 hours away driving time is the most local we get) and they didn’t even mention it. Weird. I hadn’t read the article before (not really caring about the Republican race), but it does say this: > [@Seattle Times](#): > > That’s when they did an analysis, saying: “Let’s take every county where Huckabee is beating McCain, and double the margin of victory,” Esser said. "And then take every county where McCain is winning and cut in half that margin of victory. Even if you assume that, Sen. McCain still holds on. > > “That’s when we said we’re confident that Sen. McCain’s lead was going to hold up,” Esser said. “I would have done the same for Gov. Huckabee if he had the same margin and the same underlying dynamics as Sen. McCain.” Although not proper, it doesn’t really seem like shenanigans to me either. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/never-mind-counting-the-votes-we-have-a-winner/437077.md?page=2)