New Attacks on Oil Tankers

[Aspenglow]

@Mundane_Super_Hero

<snip>

Russians don’t like the US or the Saudis… and selling weapons to Iran for oil might appeal to them.

<snip>

You must have missed the Putin/MBS high-five at the G20 Summit in Buenos Aires last November. Be sure to note Trump looking wistfully on in the background.

I believe there’s more cooperation going on there than may be gleaned at first blush.

[HurricaneDitka]

@wevets

In order for it to be a “false flag” attack, doesn’t there have to be a flag? No one has claimed responsibility, have they?

Not really. The idea behind a “false flag” attack is to get some other guy to catch the blame for one’s actions. If one can accomplish that without actually having a flag (and it appears that Iran is catching the blame for these tanker attacks), then one would have succeeded in perpetrating a false flag operation, irrespective of the presence of a flag. Of course, all that would be imagining Iran didn’t actually just perpetrate the attack themselves, which is, I think, considerably more likely.

[Grey]

@HurricaneDitka

The media has conflicting reports. I generally suspect Secretary Pompeo has more concrete intel than the media, and I doubt this matter is an exception.

You know, the last time the US had “intel” about a ME country’s nefarious intentions it went less than well. Add in a remarkably untrustworthy administration claiming “intel” and I wouldn’t give them the benefit of the doubt let alone the time of day.

[HurricaneDitka]

@Grey

You know, the last time the US had “intel” about a ME country’s nefarious intentions it went less than well. Add in a remarkably untrustworthy administration claiming “intel” and I wouldn’t give them the benefit of the doubt let alone the time of day.

Here’s what the BBC is reporting regarding the attacks:

…

The Front Altair was carrying 75,000 tonnes of naptha from the United Arab Emirates to Taiwan.

Its managers, International Tanker Management, said a fire broke out on board following an explosion. The master decided to abandon the vessel and the 23 crew members, who were unharmed, were picked up by the cargo ship Hyundai Dubai.

Taiwan’s state oil refiner CPC Corp, which had chartered the vessel, told Reuters news agency that it was “suspected of being hit by a torpedo” at about 04:00 GMT.

The tanker’s owner, Norwegian company Frontline, denied reports that it had sunk and said the crew - 11 Russians, 11 Filipinos and one Georgian - were transferred from the Hyundai Dubai to an Iranian navy vessel and taken to a local port.

…

The Kokuka Courageous was reportedly carrying about 25,000 tonnes of methanol from Saudi Arabia to Singapore.

Its managers, Bernhard Schulte Shipmanagement, said the vessel was damaged “as a result of a suspected attack” that breached the hull above the water line on the starboard side. There was a fire in the engine room, but the crew was safe, with one minor injury reported, it added.

The president of the Japanese company that owns the vessel, Kokuka Sangyo, said it was hit twice before the crew abandoned ship.

“We have had an initial report that our ship… was hit by a shell. After that, our crew saw that other ships came under fire and moved around to avoid this,” Yutaka Katada told reporters. “Three hours later it was hit again.”

…

I think it’s also probably worth noting that Iran has been threatening for months to close the Strait of Hormuz.

The Occam’s razor explanation here is that that’s likely exactly what they’re attempting to do.

I’m open to other possibilities, and I’d certainly like to see more evidence before we get to work sinking IRGC vessels and downing their aircraft, but I think Iran is clearly the most likely culprit here.

[Walken_After_Midnight]

In the first Pentagon press briefing in more than a year, U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo said:

“It is the assessment of the United States government that the Islamic Republic of Iran is responsible for the attacks the occurred in the Gulf of Oman today.

“This assessment is based on intelligence, the weapons used and the level of expertise needed the operation, recent similar Iranian attacks on shipping and the fact that no proxy group operating in the area has the resources and proficiency to act with such a high degree of sophistication.”

[HurricaneDitka]

@Walken_After_Midnight

In the first Pentagon press briefing in more than a year, U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo said:

Here is a video of the longer statement (runs 4:00).

[Velocity]

@VinylTurnip

This is one of those rare occasions when having an administration that routinely spins, dissembles and fabricates, headed by a man who brazenly lies dozens (if not hundreds) of times a day about matters both momentous and inconsequential. disinclines one to immediately take anything they say at face value.

Well, it’s worth noting that in the fable, when the boy cried wolf the 3rd time, the boy was actually correct.
To dismiss something as potentially true just because the speaker has a history of lies, could turn out to be an error in itself.

[iiandyiiii]

We’ll see. Hopefully this time journalists will actually dig and challenge and exercise skepticism rather than just blindly accept the claims ala Iraq.

[Alessan]

@carnivorousplant

That seems to me an unusual way to run a country.

It’s more usual than you think. Remember, all politics is local.

[bump]

@Mundane_Super_Hero

(I could have sworn some carriers had P3-Orions for ASW, which are nearly perfect for this duty, but evidently that’s wrong.)

You’re thinking S-3 Vikings, which were retired something like 15 years ago from the carrier ASW role.

P-3 Orions are a land-based anti submarine/maritime surveillance aircraft that’s based on the Lockheed Electra airliner of the late 1950s. They’re steadily being replaced by the P-8 Poseidon, which is effectively a militarized Boeing 737-800 airliner equipped with the avionics and weapons necessary to fulfill the role.

As far as I know, at the moment, there’s not a carrier-based ASW aircraft other than helicopters

[VinylTurnip]

@Velocity

Well, it’s worth noting that in the fable, when the boy cried wolf the 3rd time, the boy was actually correct.
To dismiss something as potentially true just because the speaker has a history of lies, could turn out to be an error in itself.

I don’t dismiss it as potentially true, but I do require a higher level of corroboration before believing it. “Distrust, so verify,” as St. Ronald might’ve said.

[Walken_After_Midnight]

@Velocity

Well, it’s worth noting that in the fable, when the boy cried wolf the 3rd time, the boy was actually correct.
To dismiss something as potentially true just because the speaker has a history of lies, could turn out to be an error in itself.

I don’t think anyone in this thread is “dismissing something as potentially true”. On the other hand, Pompeo has now explictly stated one version of events to be true. If something is going to be utilized as a potential casus belli to go to war, then it should be subjected to rigorous and robust critical analysis, and it should be able to withstand it. At this current point in time, Pompeo has not offered any actual evidence to back up his claims. While they may be true, he will need to provide some actual and incontrovertible evidence to prove it.

[Walken_After_Midnight]

You’ve got to feel for the Norwegians. Norway-flagged ships were damaged both in both last month’s incident (Andrea Victory) and today’s (Front Altair). One line of interest must surely be: who has it in for Norway?

[Declan]

@Walken_After_Midnight

One line of interest must surely be: who has it in for Norway?

Denmark, gotta watch those fuckers when they go aviking.

[Declan]

@Mundane_Super_Hero

Look, I know its gruesome, but if you can track back the weapons used, you can track them back to what fired them… which tells you who ordered them fired.

Gotta wait for the snoopy team on the Bainbridge, the ship reported seeing unexploded limpet mines on one of the tankers

[Walken_After_Midnight]

@Declan

Gotta wait for the snoopy team on the Bainbridge, the ship reported seeing unexploded limpet mines on one of the tankers

Yes, that was very fortunate that they managed to get hold of one intact. That should be able to prove who did it.

[Mundane_Super_Hero]

@Declan

Gotta wait for the snoopy team on the Bainbridge, the ship reported seeing unexploded limpet mines on one of the tankers

Agreed. That and what we are hearing is All Over the place.

Torpedoes?
Witnesses say shells?
The NAVY reports limpet mines?

The stories keep changing.

[Velocity]

@Walken_After_Midnight

You’ve got to feel for the Norwegians. Norway-flagged ships were damaged both in both last month’s incident (Andrea Victory) and today’s (Front Altair). One line of interest must surely be: who has it in for Norway?

With the attacks on Norwegian and Taiwanese vessels, the idea seems to be to hit ships of small nations who have no real capacity to retaliate or project power to the Middle East. Unlike, say, attacking Saudi, American or Chinese vessels.

[Chingon]

But Norway is part of NATO so that makes no sense.

[Velocity]

@Chingon

But Norway is part of NATO so that makes no sense.

Sure, but who’s going to invoke Article 5 over a sunk ship? It’s not like, say, Russia sending armored divisions into Poland.