Israelis will vote this fall and (insha’allah) they will choose new, more dovish, leadership.
Now, will that pave the way for Oslo III Accords?..I don’t think anyone is so naive as to hold their breath.
Whatever is on offer to the Palestinians for a two state solution will almost certainly include the expansion of Abraham Accords wherein remaining Palestinian territories will fall under administrative responsibilities of neighboring Arab countries like Jordan, Egypt and possibly Saudi Arabia. Maybe even the Turks will be tempted to pitch in, if only for nostalgic reasons. It seems to me that Palestinian self-determination will continue to elude them. Plus ça change…
Palestine is occupied by soldiers funded by Iran, Qatar, and other foreign elements fighting a proxy war against Israel. How can they hold free elections?
Israel can’t dislodge these soldiers. How would unarmed civilians do it?
…I mean, I literally just shared Israel’s national security minister posting an ai-generated meme of Palestinian Prisoners on a conveyer belt going into a concentration camp and being starved. Isreal are illegally occupying Palestine. They are credibly accused of committing genocide in Gaza and ethnic cleansing in the West Bank. Hamas has agreed to step down. Over 1200 Palestinians have been killed since the “ceasefire.” Isreal are only allowing in on fifth of the agreed-upon aid. There are still thousands of Palestinians missing in Gaza, many burried underneath the rubble.
This is not a “both-sides thing.”
This is an emergency.
Gaza needs food, aid, and support. And Isreal needs to either start complying with international law or face the consequences.
I did not say so, did I? But there are several others- and once Hamas is out, there can be a peace treaty. The idea that Hamas is “stepping down” is pure fantasy- yes, they are supposedly handing over day to day government functions, but they will not leave or disarm.
Hamas did not say whether it planned to take the crucial step of disarming or handing over security to an international force, but described its decision as evidence of its commitment to Gaza’s reconstruction after years of war…Israel dismissed the announcement as irrelevant. “The alleged resignation of the Hamas government, where all of the Hamas members stay in their positions, is a spin that has no significance,” an Israeli official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media…Hamas has insisted on implementing the first phase before moving to discuss its weapons.
That was over 50 days ago. Nothing has happened since.
Why should that matter? Hamas is prepared to hand de jure power to a civilian government. That is an essential step toward any lasting peace. Sure, it would be great if Hamas also disarmed, but there’s no good reason to demand that they do so before this essential step is taken rather than at some point in the future.
Popular Forces is what 500-700 people compared to Hamas with 15k - 40k people?
What is the will of the people in a country occupied by a foreign military?
Consider the power imbalance between the proxy war soldiers from Hamas and Palestine Militias funded by Iran and Qatar vs. 5.5M civilian Palestinians; it’s staggeringly tilted towards the soldiers. Hamas is what, 0.25 - 0.75% of the population?
The average age of Palestinians is 20 - 22 years old. Are these unarmed kids supposed to overthrow the soldiers? I’m ashamed to admit that if I were living there in my 20’s with young children, I’d keep my head down and hope my children outlived me.
Here in the US we complain constantly about things like Russian election interference, RW media brainwashing, and authoritarian overreach; and most people can’t even be bothered to donate, volunteer, or march. Then we expect a bunch of civilian twenty-somethings to risk their lives to overthrow Hamas.
So the Palestinian people are just a bunch of smol beans with no agency who are powerless to say or do anything about the heavily armed Palestinian people who control their territory and are overwhelmingly supported by them.
This is also my point. Who would you rather confront with a gun? An 18 year old or a 48 year old?
Yes, they have no agency in regards to @DrDeth’s claim that the “people can hold free elections”. It’s a set of territories occupied by a foreign army. How can there be free elections? How can the civilians force them out?
If we have a discussion where we draw a single circle around the 5.5M Palestinian people, then we’ve made a foundational mistake. There needs to be separate circles around the foreign soldiers and the civilians.
Right. Maybe they are lying and plan to use their weapons to overthrow the new government. Which would leave us no worse off than today, so where is the downside?
A reminder: Palestinians in Gaza are facing genocide. Thats the conclusion of every major humanitarian agency, a broad consensus of genocide scholars, the opinion of UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territory. Israel stands accused of genocide at the International Court of Justice. A few days ago South Africa returned to the ICJ accusing Israel of not complying with the courts provisional orders.
The Prime Minister of Israel has an arrest warrant out for him for “war crimes of starvation as a method of warfare and of intentionally directing an attack against the civilian population; and the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts.” The Minister of National Security of Israel is sharing genocidal AI videos this week.
This is the reason why Hamas agreed to cease hostilities with Israel, and they signed the agreement. Because if they didn’t, they felt that Israel was fully prepared to end it. Even now Israel is just dropping bombs and sniping people whenever they feel like it. Israel has wiped out 2700 complete bloodlines. All the family members were erased from the civil registry. They were being hunted down.
A reminder: Israel has broken the agreement every single day since it was signed, while Hamas hasn’t committed anything that would be regarded by a neutral party as a material breach. And yet you somehow are claiming that “Hamas stepping down” is pure fantasy when they are the only party to the agreement which is actually doing what they said they would.
And a reminder (because we’ve discussed this before, the citations are up thread) that what Hamas signed and what Trump showed the media are two different documents.
Hamas never agreed to disarm. That wasn’t what they signed. The agreement that Hamas signed (and the negotiators verified) offered an amnesty if any Hamas members handed over their weapons. But Trump’s version was different.
So why on earth would anything have changed in the last 50 days? Hamas is in compliance with what they agreed to. At the time they insisted on implementing the first phase before discussing weapons. How is that unreasonable?
Do you know what has happened in the last 50 days?
Isreal has killed over 300 Palestinians in Gaza.
They have killed over 1300 Palestinians in Gaza since the start of the "ceasefire. In the same time, Israel has claimed that Hamas has killed four Israeli soldiers, but even those claims don’t hold up under scrutiny.
In the last 50 days Israel was supposed to let in at least 600 aid trucks a day. The reality is closer to, on average, a hundred aid trucks. (Israel claims to be allowing in more than this but they are deliberately fudging the numbers.)
So we’ve got one party here that is breaking the ceasefire agreement daily. The yellow line advances each and every day. Most Palestians are still living in rubble.
And yet it’s the party that isn’t doing this that you are skeptical of. That doesn’t make any sense.
This is absolutely a “both-sides thing”. It’s been that since before we were born, and it will almost certainly outlive us all.
This is a conflict about religion, land, identity and generational grievances. If the shoe was on the other foot and Palestinians had the superior military and economic power in the region, things would not look very different.
For much of recorded history of this region. And the modern regional powers don’t seem very interested in resolving it. More often than not, they do what they can to make things worse.
Without a doubt. But what would also help is unconditional surrender by Hamas. Germany did it. Japan did it. Both have thrived since. When you start the latest fight and lose resoundingly, the smart thing to do is to admit defeat and not make things worse for everyone you’ve dragged down with you.
Brought to you by the UN Department of Empty Threats.