# New Hampshire Bragging Rights Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 2, 2016, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-bragging-rights-thread/744914 "2016-02-02T03:10:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2016, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-bragging-rights-thread/744914/41 "2016-02-08T03:33:51Z")
Rubio’s NH momentum had stalled even before the debate. If anything, the establishment seems to be coalescing around Kasich, although not enough to give him a convincing showing. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2016, 5:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-bragging-rights-thread/744914/42 "2016-02-08T05:19:44Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Rubio 24% > Trump 23% > Kasich 19% > Cruz 10% > For the Dems I’m going out on a limb and saying: > Sanders 51% > Clinton 45% So I’m willing to stand by my projection for the D’s but after that debacle of a debate last night I would modify the GOP side thusly: Trump 28% Kasich 22% Christie 12% Bush 10% Cruz 9% ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2016, 5:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-bragging-rights-thread/744914/43 "2016-02-08T05:52:23Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > If anything, the establishment seems to be coalescing around Kasich, although not enough to give him a convincing showing. Uh, yeah. Not going to even consider that one without a credible cite. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2016, 6:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-bragging-rights-thread/744914/44 "2016-02-08T06:00:30Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > So I’m willing to stand by my projection for the D’s but after that debacle of a debate last night I would modify the GOP side thusly: > Trump 28% > Kasich 22% > Christie 12% > Bush 10% > Cruz 9% So you’re thinking almost all of Rubio’s votes will go to others? Wow, even I don’t believe he will drop so precipitously. ETA: My guess is Rubio stays somewhere in third place. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2016, 8:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-bragging-rights-thread/744914/45 "2016-02-08T08:43:49Z")
I too have done this without consulting any polls (I would have done except that the debate scrambled things a lot, I suspect): Trump 30.0 Kasich 18.4 Bush 10.5 Rubio 9.8 Cruz 8.3 Christie 6.6 Fiorina 4.1 Carson 2.7 Pataki 2.3 Paul 1.1 Other 6.2 ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2016, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-bragging-rights-thread/744914/46 "2016-02-09T18:24:05Z")
TRUMP-35% KKKa$ich-17% Jeb!-14% **Rubio** -12% Cruz-11% Christie-9% Carson-1% Fiorina-1% Dems: Sanders-55% Clinton-45% ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2016, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-bragging-rights-thread/744914/47 "2016-02-09T18:52:28Z")
Slight revision to above: Trump 35% Kasich 15% Cruz 12% Christie 12% Rubio 10% Rubio 10% Rubio 10% Rubio 10% Bush 6% Carson 5% ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-bragging-rights-thread/744914/48 "2016-02-10T02:38:08Z")
Ha! ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 6:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-bragging-rights-thread/744914/49 "2016-02-10T06:58:39Z")
> [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](#): > > I’m going to go against the grain and say the Rubio bounce doesn’t materialize. (ETA: I will openly admit that this is adanalysis here. I’d certain prefer for Rubio’s momentum to stall.) > > Trump: 28 > Cruz: 18 > Kasich: 12 > > Is Gilmore even in it? Do already-dropped candidates count for last? I predict Santorum will beat Huck. Alright, I’m giving myself a B this time. Predicting the Rubio non-bounce - _before_ his disastrous debate - was a stroke of genius. I picked the top three correct, just not in the right order. I really thought Cruz would do better, in terms of picking up the far-right vote that is there in NH and turning them out. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 2:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-bragging-rights-thread/744914/50 "2016-02-10T14:13:08Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > I too have done this without consulting any polls (I would have done except that the debate scrambled things a lot, I suspect): > > Trump 30.0 > Kasich 18.4 > Bush 10.5 > Rubio 9.8 > Cruz 8.3 > Christie 6.6 > Fiorina 4.1 > Carson 2.7 Had Rubio gotten 6/10ths of a point of Cruz’s support, I would have gotten the top eight in the exact right order. Giving myself an A-. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-bragging-rights-thread/744914/51 "2016-02-10T17:34:29Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > > [@](#): > > > > Trump 30.0 > > Kasich 18.4 > > Bush 10.5 > > Rubio 9.8 > > Cruz 8.3 > > Christie 6.6 > > Fiorina 4.1 > > Carson 2.7 > > Had Rubio gotten 6/10ths of a point of Cruz’s support, I would have gotten the top eight in the exact right order. Giving myself an A-. It might be a slow morning for me, but it looks like if you give Rubio 0.6 points from Cruz, you’d have Trump, Kasich, Rubio, Bush, Cruz, which is not the correct order. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-bragging-rights-thread/744914/52 "2016-02-10T18:04:02Z")
> [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](#): > > It might be a slow morning for me, but it looks like if you give Rubio 0.6 points from Cruz, you’d have Trump, Kasich, Rubio, Bush, Cruz, which is not the correct order. I see the numbers are slightly different from when I posted that. Here is what looks to be the final tally: Trump 35.3 Kasich 15.8 Cruz 11.7 Bush 11.0 Rubio 10.5 Christie 7.4 Fiorina 4.1 Carson 2.3 So, yeah, now if I take 0.6 from Cruz and give it to Rubio, it becomes (slightly different from what you said): Trump 35.3 Kasich 15.8 Rubio 11.1 Cruz 11.1 Bush 11.0 Christie 7.4 Fiorina 4.1 Carson 2.3 So I would have to change it based on these final numbers to “If I took 0.8 from Cruz and gave 0.6 of it to Rubio and 0.2 to Bush, I would have the top eight in the right order.” More complicated, not as impressive, alas; but still indicative of being very close. Also, here were my numbers compared to the actual (mine/actual): Trump 30.0/35.3 Kasich 18.4/15.8 Cruz 8.3/11.7 Bush 10.5/11.0 Rubio 9.8/10.5 Christie 6.6/7.4 Fiorina 4.1/4.1 Carson 2.7/2.3 I called Kasich’s second place finish, and that it would be by a comfortable margin over Bush/Rubio/Cruz, all three of whom would be tightly bunched. My biggest miss was Cruz, but for the bottom five (Bush, Rubio, Christie, Fiorina, and Carson) I averaged less than a half percentage point off of their actual numbers. I’m sticking to my A-, dammit! 😛 ---
**Author:** ![YogSothoth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/8edcca/32.png) [@YogSothoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YogSothoth)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-bragging-rights-thread/744914/53 "2016-02-10T18:11:27Z")
WTF, Bush is still relevant? Along with Kasich being 2nd and Rubio dropping to 5th, this has been a most unpredictable NH ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-bragging-rights-thread/744914/54 "2016-02-10T18:29:20Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > > [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > > > So I’m willing to stand by my projection for the D’s but after that debacle of a debate last night I would modify the GOP side thusly: > > Trump 28% > > Kasich 22% > > Christie 12% > > Bush 10% > > Cruz 9% > > So you’re thinking almost all of Rubio’s votes will go to others? Wow, even I don’t believe he will drop so precipitously. > > ETA: My guess is Rubio stays somewhere in third place. Well, Trump did much better than I thought with 35.4% but at least I had Kasich in second though he didn’t do as well as I expected. The only ones I got close on were Cruz and Bush. Even Rubio didn’t fall as far as I [del]hoped[/del] thought he would. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-bragging-rights-thread/744914/55 "2016-02-10T19:50:20Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > So, yeah, now if I take 0.6 from Cruz and give it to Rubio, it becomes (slightly different from what you said): Yeah, guess the exact numbers are still in flux a bit… [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-bragging-rights-thread/744914.md?page=2)