# New Hampshire Primary 02/09/16 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 2, 2016, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965 "2016-02-02T17:22:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/1 "2016-02-02T17:22:03Z")
Start your engines, place your bets! Coming out of Iowa, the Pub frontrunners are still Cruz, Trump and Rubio, the Dem frontrunners are still Clinton and Sanders. I expect no upsets from anyone else. Sanders may have an edge in NH just because it’s next door to Vermont and everyone there has heard of him. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/2 "2016-02-02T17:26:21Z")
The interesting questions are all on the Republican side. The NH Democrats are going to give Sanders a win, which his supporters will make a huge deal out of, and then Clinton will win NV, SC, and Super Tuesday. The Republicans OTOH! Will Rubio get much of a bounce? Can Christie/Kasich continue to contest the ‘establishment lane’? Will Trump slide, now that his invincibility has been punctured? I have no idea! ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/3 "2016-02-02T17:46:39Z")
BTW, does NH distribute its delegates proportionally or winner-take-all? Anybody know? ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/4 "2016-02-02T17:51:21Z")
Proportionally, on both sides. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/5 "2016-02-02T18:14:39Z")
It’ll be interesting to see the first post-Iowa poll of NH Republicans. How big will Rubio’s bounce be, will Cruz get much of a bounce, will Trump’s support take a hit? Will the support for the other Establishment lane candidates hold, or will it mostly gravitate towards Rubio? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/6 "2016-02-02T18:15:32Z")
Don’t be so sure about Nevada. It’s a caucus state with heavy union involvement. As for NH, it’s Sanders on the Democrat side by 20 points or more. On the GOP side, I’ve gone out on a limb and predicted Kasich will win it, but Rubio could do it given his performance in Iowa. Trump will fall to 2nd or 3rd. Christie will be forced to exit, leaving Bush, Kasich and Rubio in the establishment pack. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/7 "2016-02-02T18:19:50Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > On the GOP side, I’ve gone out on a limb and predicted Kasich will win it, More like you’re sitting on a limb and sawing it between you and the trunk. The first poll will be instructive, Rubio will doubtless get a bit of a bounce, but there are too many establishment lane candidates to divvy up the vote and I think Trump-Cruz finish 1-2 respectively. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/8 "2016-02-02T18:22:28Z")
Things can change a lot though with momentum. You’d expect Cruz and Rubio to rise in NH and Trump to fall. We just don’t know how much. We also know, as Nate Silver pointed out, that if Trump underperformed his polling in IA, his polling in NH is also probably overestimating his support. Then there’s the last minute voters. They went big for Rubio and Cruz. The kinds of voters who make last minute decisions in NH are likely to go for Rubio, Kasich, and Christie, so I’d expect all three could overperform. So basically my predictions are trying to extrapolate from where we are now. Kasich is the #1 establishment guy in NH. So if Trump falters and Cruz just isn’t right for NH voters, then Kasich is best positioned to win. Waiting for the first post-IA New Hampshire poll is taking the easy way.🙂 ---
**Author:** ![El\_Kabong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/el_kabong/32/496_2.png) [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/9 "2016-02-02T18:24:06Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Don’t be so sure about Nevada. It’s a caucus state with heavy union involvement. > > As for NH, it’s Sanders on the Democrat side by 20 points or more. On the GOP side, I’ve gone out on a limb and predicted Kasich will win it, but Rubio could do it given his performance in Iowa. Trump will fall to 2nd or 3rd. Christie will be forced to exit, leaving Bush, Kasich and Rubio in the establishment pack. So Trump has to drop by 10-15 points in a week, with either Kasich or Cruz talking on all the defectors? I’m not really seeing it. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/10 "2016-02-02T18:46:42Z")
Howard Dean was the leader in NH for quite some time. Iowa caused him to tumble in the polls, which led him to a double digit loss. > [@](#): > > Before the Iowa vote, Dean had led Kerry in New Hampshire polls 32 to 25. Clark was in third with 21.4After Iowa, almost overnight, Dean’s advantage in the state evaporated and Kerry became the new favorite to win. This immediately affected the dynamics of the New Hampshire contest. Tracking polls showed Kerry with a stable double-digit lead heading into the election. Gallup reported that he was “poised” for a clear win.5 > > On primary day, in an election battle between two New England politicians, Kerry defeated Dean by 12 points, 38 to 26. [http://cphcmp.smu.edu/2004election/new-hampshire-primary/](http://cphcmp.smu.edu/2004election/new-hampshire-primary/) ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/11 "2016-02-02T18:47:58Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > BTW, does NH distribute its delegates proportionally or winner-take-all? Anybody know? Republicans: statewide proportional, with a 10% threshhold. Democrats: 8 delegates from each of the two Congressional districts, proportional to the district vote; 8 statewide delegates, proportional to the statewide vote. 15% threshhold in all cases, although this shouldn’t be a problem with only two candidates remaining. (“Didn’t you say that 3/4 of the pledged delegates had to be divided among the districts?” Yes, but the 8 statewide delegates include 3 “pledged party officials” (i.e. delegates chosen by the party who aren’t superdelegates).) ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/12 "2016-02-02T18:48:12Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Don’t be so sure about Nevada. It’s a caucus state with heavy union involvement. Many of which unions have endorsed Clinton. > [@adaher](#): > > Things can change a lot though with momentum. You’d expect Cruz and Rubio to rise in NH and Trump to fall. We just don’t know how much. We also know, as Nate Silver pointed out, that if Trump underperformed his polling in IA, his polling in NH is also probably overestimating his support. > > Then there’s the last minute voters. They went big for Rubio and Cruz. The kinds of voters who make last minute decisions in NH are likely to go for Rubio, Kasich, and Christie, so I’d expect all three could overperform. > > So basically my predictions are trying to extrapolate from where we are now. Kasich is the #1 establishment guy in NH. So if Trump falters and Cruz just isn’t right for NH voters, then Kasich is best positioned to win. Couple of problems here-Iowa is very undemocratic in being a caucus and thus had a class bias against economically marginal and less-educated voters which primaries such as New Hampshire have less of a problem of. Not to mention in general Iowa is a pretty shill and low-energy state that was always one of the worst states for TRUMP due to its combination of Midwestern evangelical moralism and annoying “Minnesota nice” culture (which the Mormon apostates share in spirit) who shrink from the Donald’s bluntness and sincerity. The more hardass regional cultures of New Hampshire with its large bloc of blue-collar ethnic Catholics and the Scotch-Irish rednecks of both states will be far more amenable to TRUMP’s message of national greatness and genuine principle compared to the undisguised plutocratic panderings of the two Cubans in this race. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/13 "2016-02-02T18:48:25Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Don’t be so sure about Nevada. It’s a caucus state with heavy union involvement. So who does that favor more, Clinton or Sanders? (I doubt union support is at all relevant on the Pub side.) ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/14 "2016-02-02T18:58:59Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Things can change a lot though with momentum. You’d expect Cruz and Rubio to rise in NH and Trump to fall. We just don’t know how much. We also know, as Nate Silver pointed out, that if Trump underperformed his polling in IA, his polling in NH is also probably overestimating his support. > > Then there’s the last minute voters. They went big for Rubio and Cruz. The kinds of voters who make last minute decisions in NH are likely to go for Rubio, Kasich, and Christie, so I’d expect all three could overperform. > > So basically my predictions are trying to extrapolate from where we are now. Kasich is the #1 establishment guy in NH. **So if Trump falters and Cruz just isn’t right for NH voters, then Kasich is best positioned to win.** > > Waiting for the first post-IA New Hampshire poll is taking the easy way.🙂 Bolding mine. Agree except for the bolded part. IMO … If Trump falters & Cruz just isn’t right then Kasich is well-positioned to pick up the majority of the folks who abandon Trump or Cruz. Given Rubio’s vs. Kasich’s positioning now I don’t know that Kasichs’ share of that crowd is bigger enough than Rubio’s share to pull Kasich ahead of Rubio. TLDR: Kasich will move up more than Rubio will, but not enough to be sure Kasich will come in on top given all the other moving parts in play. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2016, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/15 "2016-02-03T02:04:37Z")
Democratic side a Sanders blow-out. It and Vermont may be the only states he outright wins but he will win it big. Call it 59 to 41. Anything less than that there will correctly be understood as a sign of doom for him no matter how it is spun. GOP side. I really do think that part of Trump’s Iowa collapse was his passing on the debate. Many Iowan unsures made up their minds that night and he was a no show. NH unsures still have a chance to be won or lost. His failure to deliver and being closer to third than first will have many questioning if he really is “the most electable” after all but he will not collapse. From the current RCP averages Cruz takes from Trump and the rest of the undercard bleeds support pretty evenly into Kasich and Rubio Trump 28 Cruz 17 Kasich 16 Rubio 15 No one else breaks 10. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2016, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/16 "2016-02-03T03:03:48Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Democratic side a Sanders blow-out. It and Vermont may be the only states he outright wins but he will win it big. Call it 59 to 41. Anything less than that there will correctly be understood as a sign of doom for him no matter how it is spun. > > GOP side. I really do think that part of Trump’s Iowa collapse was his passing on the debate. Many Iowan unsures made up their minds that night and he was a no show. NH unsures still have a chance to be won or lost. His failure to deliver and being closer to third than first will have many questioning if he really is “the most electable” after all but he will not collapse. > > From the current RCP averages Cruz takes from Trump and the rest of the undercard bleeds support pretty evenly into Kasich and Rubio > > Trump 28 > Cruz 17 > Kasich 16 > Rubio 15 > No one else breaks 10. How did Kasich beat Rubio?! ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2016, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/17 "2016-02-03T03:40:57Z")
The Nevada hotel workers’ union had some nasty things to say about the Sanders campaign, I don’t know if they have formally endorsed Clinton or not. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2016, 3:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/18 "2016-02-03T03:42:36Z")
Kasich has been polling stronger than Rubio there to date and Rubio’s posture in Iowa and likely rapid pivot in posture in NH won’t play great. NH in the past has tended to divvy up the undercard among those polling in the top 3 or 4 in their polls in the week or so before the primary, not reward “momentum” from Iowa. In 2012 for example Huntsman got 0.6 in Iowa but still outperformed his polling average in NH with a solid third at 16.9. Kasich is pretty Huntsmanish for this field. Kasich current RCP rolling average is essentially tied for second with Cruz at 11.3. Bush and Rubio are essentially tied just below that. There are some special case aspects to this one … again my belief that some Trump support will bleed as he begins to appear as the Emperor who wears no clothes and that the not Trump or Cruz lane will drop all but the current leader of that lane in their polling (and owner of many local endorsements), Kasich, and the banner-waver of that lane from Iowa, Rubio. Bush despite essentially being tied for 4th will bleed off into those two as will most of the rest of the undercard (Cruz getting more of Carson and Huck share maybe). I think. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2016, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/19 "2016-02-05T00:12:38Z")
[Apparently Trump has decided to leave nothing to chance this time.](http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/04/politics/donald-trump-new-hampshire-2016/index.html?eref=rss_latest) > [@](#): > > Manchester, New Hampshire (CNN)—Still stinging from his first defeat as a presidential candidate, Donald Trump rolled into New Hampshire on Thursday with a new mantra: There is no such thing as too much campaigning. > > He also broke from his usual playbook by taking questions from the audience at the first of many events planned for Thursday. > > Trump was originally scheduled to hold two campaign events in the Granite State, but by Wednesday night, the campaign distributed a revised schedule that squeezed in three additional stops including an interview with CNN’s Anderson Cooper, a meeting with local business owners and an event with the Manchester Police Department. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2016, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/20 "2016-02-05T01:57:16Z")
Don’t stop me if you’ve heard this. [A rabbi walks into a Town Hall . . .](http://www.salon.com/2016/02/04/hillarys_humility_moment_a_rabbi_walks_into_a_town_hall_and_asks_a_question_youd_never_hear_in_the_gop_debates/) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965.md?page=2)