# New Hampshire Primary 02/09/16 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 2, 2016, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965 "2016-02-02T17:22:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 7:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/141 "2016-02-10T07:20:12Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > Not surprising. He really doesn’t have a viable way forward and he is smart enough to realize it. He probably wasn’t going to make the cut at the next debate either. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 10:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/142 "2016-02-10T10:41:40Z")
> [@Frylock](#): > > Am I crazy or do I not recall that as late as this morning it was generally understood that Sanders would win NH by a wide margin? Not sure I understand your question. Bernier was certain to win, but the question was by what margin. Polls showed it would be wide, but you never know until the count is actually in. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 10:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/143 "2016-02-10T10:47:43Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > What a relief it is that Rubio’s robotic debate gaffe did matter to voters. There was some talk that maybe it was just something that media pundit types were laughing about but that regular voters wouldn’t care about. And honestly, I found that possibility rather disturbing. So I definitely see this as reassuring. I do too, but that puts other overly scripted candidates on notice as well. Rubio shouldn’t be singled out. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 11:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/144 "2016-02-10T11:06:38Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I do too, but that puts other overly scripted candidates on notice as well. Rubio shouldn’t be singled out. Life ain’t fair. Neither is politics. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 11:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/145 "2016-02-10T11:10:27Z")
Oh, that’s a given, just ask Hillary Clinton. But if I’m Hillary, and I’m paranoid, I’m thinking that I’m also vulnerable on the “robotic, overly scripted” count. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 11:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/146 "2016-02-10T11:28:27Z")
> [@Merneith](#): > > Who the hell is Jim Gilmore? Where’d he come from? Has he been up there on teh Pubbie stage all along? Did he just sneak his name on to the ballot when no one was looking? Is he really Bobby Jindal in a rubber Old Man Gilmore Mask? [long drag on cigarette in darkened parking garage, followed by conspiratorial tone] _“Have you ever seen Jim Gilmore in the same room as Martin O’Malley?”_ [/long drag on cigarette in darkened parking garage, followed by conspiratorial tone] ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 12:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/147 "2016-02-10T12:17:57Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > I love the smell of a Hillary loss in the morning. It’s smells like… victory! Some day, this election’s gonna end. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 12:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/148 "2016-02-10T12:24:30Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Some day, this election’s gonna end. Insha’Allah! ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 12:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/149 "2016-02-10T12:34:47Z")
And then we gear up for 2018, which should be a great year for Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 12:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/150 "2016-02-10T12:42:45Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Cruz is the most libertarian candidate standing since Paul dropped out. Just because a word has more than three syllables isn’t a license to pretend that it means what you want it to mean. Actually, the candidate who best fits that description on the GOP side (usual anti-tax and anti-regulation economics, doesn’t care about social issues except as an occasional sop to the rubes) is – as the others daintily refer to him – “the frontrunner”. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 12:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/151 "2016-02-10T12:45:14Z")
No, Trump’s more on the authoritarian side. Anyway, glad to see that Cruz beat Bush. That helps Kasich establish himself as THE current establishment frontrunner. ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 1:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/152 "2016-02-10T13:07:02Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > No, Trump’s more on the authoritarian side. > > Anyway, glad to see that Cruz beat Bush. That helps Kasich establish himself as THE current establishment frontrunner. Maybe, maybe not. Kasich only did slightly better than Bush. And it’s not clear to me that Kasich will match his 15% in any upcoming primaries. The question is whether he can pick up the Carson, Christie or Fiorina votes in the next few weeks. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 1:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/153 "2016-02-10T13:07:54Z")
I sure hope so. There’s good reasons for all of those candidates’ supporters to back Kasich. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/154 "2016-02-10T13:48:54Z")
I need **adaher** or somebody else to explain to me why Kasich’s 16% is that different from Huntsman’s 17% in 2012. I mean, I hope it is - a sane GOP candidate would be a great thing, but the field still looks very divided for me, and running to the left of the frontrunner(s) doesn’t seem to be a great strategy in a GOP primary. For the first time I actually see a path to a split convention. Are there any websites out there that game out the delegate rules like the presidential EV websites? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/155 "2016-02-10T13:56:27Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > Are there any websites out there that game out the delegate rules like the presidential EV websites? The [Green Papers](http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R-Alloc.phtml) are a good starting place. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/156 "2016-02-10T13:58:36Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Anyway, glad to see that Cruz beat Bush. That helps Kasich establish himself as THE current establishment frontrunner. From all reports, Kasich went for broke in NH, spending almost all of his money and time and still came in a very distant 2nd. He has no infrastructure in SC, NV, or the Super Tuesday states. I’m not sure why he would think this would be a good strategy (maybe the only way forward is a surprise win in NH that raises you nationally?) but it doesn’t seem to have worked. I don’t think that Kasich is even being mentioned in any conversation. It is only can Rubio make up for his debate performance, can Cruz keep it up, and can Bush do whatever in the hell it might be that people would want to vote for him. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/157 "2016-02-10T13:59:43Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > I need **adaher** or somebody else to explain to me why Kasich’s 16% is that different from Huntsman’s 17% in 2012. I mean, I hope it is - a sane GOP candidate would be a great thing, but the field still looks very divided for me, and running to the left of the frontrunner(s) doesn’t seem to be a great strategy in a GOP primary. > > For the first time I actually see a path to a split convention. Are there any websites out there that game out the delegate rules like the presidential EV websites? As Nate Silver explained, Huntsman got 17% against Romney, who was a clear frontrunner and the party’s choice. Kasich got 16% against Trump, who it is not at all clear whether he can form a majority, plus it makes Kasich the best performing establishment candidate. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/158 "2016-02-10T14:07:26Z")
While Kasich isn’t a moderate by any stretch of the imagination, he’s the closest thing the GOP race has to one, so I guess he’ll play one on TV for the time being. But given that, NH was certainly his most favorable venue, at least until Ohio on March 15, and by then Kasich’s 16% in NH will be a footnote. Also, both Rubio and Bush are staying in for now - I suspect neither will drop out until after Florida, also on March 15 - so even assuming Christie drops out, he’s still got to divide the Establishment lane vote with them. (And Christie’s dropping out will make little difference in SC, where [his poll average per 538](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/south-carolina-republican/) is 2.2%.) Kasich is also just about out of money. His NH showing should help that, but how much? My guess is that possible donors are going to wait to see whether he can build on this, or whether NH was a flash in the pan for him - which is likely to make the latter result more of a certainty. Bush and Rubio have money, but no momentum. (Actually, Rubio has _negative_ momentum. Domo Arigato!) Kasich has some momentum, but no money. Christie took down Rubio, but has neither money nor momentum. There’s your Establishment lane, in a nutshell. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/159 "2016-02-10T14:16:28Z")
Which God help us, creates a path for Jeb. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/160 "2016-02-10T14:21:04Z")
Jeb’s only real advantage is he still has a lot of money, but he’s not been able to translate money into votes. I think a non-Trump wins if guys drop out soonish, but if enough people who can pull 8-12% of votes hang on until say, mid-March or later, I think it works to Trump’s advantage. I do think Trump will struggle to raise his support into the 40/50% territory in a head to head against a Cruz, but as long as the establishment candidates refuse to bow out he isn’t going to end up in such a head to head. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965.md?page=9)