# New Hampshire Primary 02/09/16

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [February 2, 2016, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965 "2016-02-02T17:22:03Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
**Showing post:** 12

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**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\
**Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary-02-09-16/744965/12 "2016-02-02T18:48:12Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> Don’t be so sure about Nevada. It’s a caucus state with heavy union involvement.

Many of which unions have endorsed Clinton.

> [@adaher](#):
>
> Things can change a lot though with momentum. You’d expect Cruz and Rubio to rise in NH and Trump to fall. We just don’t know how much. We also know, as Nate Silver pointed out, that if Trump underperformed his polling in IA, his polling in NH is also probably overestimating his support.
> 
> Then there’s the last minute voters. They went big for Rubio and Cruz. The kinds of voters who make last minute decisions in NH are likely to go for Rubio, Kasich, and Christie, so I’d expect all three could overperform.
> 
> So basically my predictions are trying to extrapolate from where we are now. Kasich is the #1 establishment guy in NH. So if Trump falters and Cruz just isn’t right for NH voters, then Kasich is best positioned to win.

Couple of problems here-Iowa is very undemocratic in being a caucus and thus had a class bias against economically marginal and less-educated voters which primaries such as New Hampshire have less of a problem of. Not to mention in general Iowa is a pretty shill and low-energy state that was always one of the worst states for TRUMP due to its combination of Midwestern evangelical moralism and annoying “Minnesota nice” culture (which the Mormon apostates share in spirit) who shrink from the Donald’s bluntness and sincerity. The more hardass regional cultures of New Hampshire with its large bloc of blue-collar ethnic Catholics and the Scotch-Irish rednecks of both states will be far more amenable to TRUMP’s message of national greatness and genuine principle compared to the undisguised plutocratic panderings of the two Cubans in this race.

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