# New Hampshire primary **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 8, 2012, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary/608786 "2012-01-08T02:24:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2012, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary/608786/1 "2012-01-08T02:24:45Z")
According to [Reuters,](http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/08/us-usa-campaign-huntsman-idUSTRE80601720120108) Hunstman (!) and Santorum are gaining ground, but Romney still leads. Gingrich is not mentioned. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2012, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary/608786/2 "2012-01-08T02:34:52Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > According to [Reuters,](http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/08/us-usa-campaign-huntsman-idUSTRE80601720120108) Hunstman (!) and Santorum are gaining ground, but Romney still leads. Gingrich is not mentioned. Huntsman can pull a Santorum here and unlike the latter can survive scrutiny and gain in the moderate states. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2012, 3:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary/608786/3 "2012-01-08T03:25:57Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > Huntsman can pull a Santorum here and unlike the latter can survive scrutiny and gain in the moderate states. 1. No, Huntsman can’t pull a Santorum here. The poll shows Romney’s support up to 40%, and there just isn’t enough left over for anyone to challenge Romney for the lead. And just as this is Romney’s strongest state, it’s also Huntsman’s. If he can’t either knock Romney off here, or come awfully close, he’s toast for this cycle. And finally, Huntsman isn’t a potential anti-Romney; he’s a potential anti-anti-Romney: his only route to success this cycle was if Romney had faltered as one of the anti-Romneys picked up steam. This hasn’t happened. Huntsman’s toast, even if he picks up 25% of the vote on Tuesday. 2. What ‘moderate states’ are we talking about, with respect to the GOP primary electorate? They’re in pretty limited supply. New England, New York, and then what? ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2012, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary/608786/4 "2012-01-08T03:32:27Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > 1. No, Huntsman can’t pull a Santorum here. The poll shows Romney’s support up to 40%, and there just isn’t enough left over for anyone to challenge Romney for the lead. And just as this is Romney’s strongest state, it’s also Huntsman’s. If he can’t either knock Romney off here, or come awfully close, he’s toast for this cycle. And finally, Huntsman isn’t a potential anti-Romney; he’s a potential anti-anti-Romney: his only route to success this cycle was if Romney had faltered as one of the anti-Romneys picked up steam. This hasn’t happened. Huntsman’s toast, even if he picks up 25% of the vote on Tuesday. > > 2. What ‘moderate states’ are we talking about, with respect to the GOP primary electorate? They’re in pretty limited supply. New England, New York, and then what? California, and the Western States in general. ---
**Author:** ![boytyperanma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4491bb/32.png) [@boytyperanma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/boytyperanma)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2012, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary/608786/5 "2012-01-08T03:32:53Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > Huntsman can pull a Santorum here and unlike the latter can survive scrutiny and gain in the moderate states. It’s so cute watching your love affair with Huntsman, he never had a chance this election cycle and has no chance in NH. Huntsman has no energy and still hasn’t sold himself as anything other than ‘Romney with less name recognition’ Maybe next election cycle if the Republicans lose and they come to a conclusion they should stop trying to out crazy each other and try to win. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2012, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary/608786/6 "2012-01-08T03:33:34Z")
> [@boytyperanma](#): > > It’s so cute watching your love affair with Huntsman, he never had a chance this election cycle and has no chance in NH. Huntsman has no energy and still hasn’t sold himself as anything other than ‘Romney with less name recognition’ And far more consistent. ---
**Author:** ![boytyperanma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4491bb/32.png) [@boytyperanma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/boytyperanma)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2012, 3:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary/608786/7 "2012-01-08T03:38:26Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > And far more consistent. While it is true he hasn’t sold himself as that. It doesn’t matter how inline with his base he may be if people don’t know who he is. ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2012, 5:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary/608786/8 "2012-01-08T05:26:31Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > 1. No, Huntsman can’t pull a Santorum here. The poll shows Romney’s support up to 40%, and there just isn’t enough left over for anyone to challenge Romney for the lead. And just as this is Romney’s strongest state, it’s also Huntsman’s. If he can’t either knock Romney off here, or come awfully close, he’s toast for this cycle. And finally, Huntsman isn’t a potential anti-Romney; he’s a potential anti-anti-Romney: his only route to success this cycle was if Romney had faltered as one of the anti-Romneys picked up steam. This hasn’t happened. Huntsman’s toast, even if he picks up 25% of the vote on Tuesday. > > 2. What ‘moderate states’ are we talking about, with respect to the GOP primary electorate? They’re in pretty limited supply. New England, New York, and then what? This. > [@boytyperanma](#): > > While it is true he hasn’t sold himself as that. It doesn’t matter how inline with his base he may be if people don’t know who he is. And that. People in caucuses in Iowa still didn’t know who Huntsman is. Huntsman is done mostly because he never started. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2012, 5:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary/608786/9 "2012-01-08T05:56:20Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > California, and the Western States in general. California has a GOP that isn’t even on the same planet as moderation. And the Republicans in the Rocky Mountain states are some of the craziest in the nation. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2012, 8:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary/608786/10 "2012-01-08T08:27:51Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > And far more consistent. > [@boytyperanma](#): > > While it is true he hasn’t sold himself as that. It doesn’t matter how inline with his base he may be if people don’t know who he is. Um, actually Huntsman has been pounding the point as hard as he could. Cite: [http://www.jon2012.com/video-vote](http://www.jon2012.com/video-vote) [http://blogs.reuters.com/political-theater/2011/12/03/huntsman-accuses-romney-of-flip-flop-gymnastics-in-new-ad/](http://blogs.reuters.com/political-theater/2011/12/03/huntsman-accuses-romney-of-flip-flop-gymnastics-in-new-ad/) **RTFirefly** : The real question is whether Huntsman will do well enough to run in 2016. I’m not sure whether he can even clear that hurdle. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2012, 12:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary/608786/11 "2012-01-08T12:56:58Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > **RTFirefly** : The real question is whether Huntsman will do well enough to run in 2016. I’m not sure whether he can even clear that hurdle. Let’s take that a step further: what he’s _really_ running for this cycle (whether he’s cognizant of it or not) is to be the guy whose ‘turn’ it is in 2016. And you’re right, he’s got to do considerably better than he’s doing so far. Otherwise, come 2015, the GOP establishment will settle on someone who didn’t even run this time, kinda like how the big GOP donors had already dropped bucketloads of money on GWB by early 1999. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2012, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary/608786/12 "2012-01-08T23:39:41Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > California has a GOP that isn’t even on the same planet as moderation. And the Republicans in the Rocky Mountain states are some of the craziest in the nation. States like Nevada and Utah is Huntsman country. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2012, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary/608786/13 "2012-01-09T00:21:03Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Let’s take that a step further: what he’s _really_ running for this cycle (whether he’s cognizant of it or not) is to be the guy whose ‘turn’ it is in 2016. Let us hope he will be. At least he ain’t crazy. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2012, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary/608786/14 "2012-01-09T00:25:00Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Let us hope he will be. At least he ain’t crazy. Here’s the most likely scenario for that. In 2012 Romney gets nominated and loses narrowly. Tea Party claims this is because Romney was a RINO and seizes control of the GOP, Bachmann becomes Speaker, DeMint Senate Minority Leader. The GOP gets crushed in 2014 and the Dems gain supermajorities in the House and Senate. Huntsman runs in 2016 blaming the Tea Party for this and gains the nomination. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2012, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary/608786/15 "2012-01-09T00:29:34Z")
Romney is going to win New Hampshire by a pretty big margin. About the worst thing that can happen is that he wins by less than expected, and that poll suggests he’s fine. If he gets twice as many votes as anyone else - around 40 percent and nobody else gets over 20 - I think that’s a very good result for him even though it’s essentially his home turf. > [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > Here’s the most likely scenario for that. There are a lot of “ifs” in there. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2012, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary/608786/16 "2012-01-09T01:25:33Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > Here’s the most likely scenario for that. > > In 2012 Romney gets nominated and loses narrowly. > > Tea Party claims this is because Romney was a RINO and seizes control of the GOP, Bachmann becomes Speaker, DeMint Senate Minority Leader. > > The GOP gets crushed in 2014 and the Dems gain supermajorities in the House and Senate. > > Huntsman runs in 2016 blaming the Tea Party for this and gains the nomination. Again, let us hope. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2012, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary/608786/17 "2012-01-09T01:44:45Z")
> [@](#): > > There are a lot of “ifs” in there [Huntsman’s path to the Presidency]. I agree, but then again, it’s still a heck of a lot more likely than most peoples’, or even most politicians’, path to the White House. And the prize is big enough to make the expected payoff pretty good, even with low odds. Although he could also pull off essentially the same thing if one of the far-right gets the Republican nomination for President and gets crushed. Which is looking considerably less likely now than it did when he started running, but could still happen. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2012, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary/608786/18 "2012-01-09T02:00:02Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > Here’s the most likely scenario for that. > > In 2012 Romney gets nominated and loses narrowly. > > Tea Party claims this is because Romney was a RINO and seizes control of the GOP, Bachmann becomes Speaker, DeMint Senate Minority Leader. > > The GOP gets crushed in 2014 and the Dems gain supermajorities in the House and Senate. > > Huntsman runs in 2016 blaming the Tea Party for this and gains the nomination. That’s not the most likely scenario: neither Bachmann nor DeMint are popular enough within their caucus to lead them. Still, you have the basic gist: Huntsman becomes the Cassandra against the Tea Party (rather like Gary Hart was v. Mondale). The Tea Party over-reaches and disintegrates. Huntsman gains credibility. ## It’s still a tough road. In politics being right counts for squat unless you have a base backing you up. And Republican moderates have no organization. Moderate conservatives of eg the [Main Street](http://www.opensecrets.org/527s/527cmtedetail.php?ein=820569828) variety are trending Democratic. Latest polls: [http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contest/2012-nh-pres-12-r](http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contest/2012-nh-pres-12-r) Huntman could conceivably come in 2nd in New Hampshire. But could he come within five points of Romney? Doubtful. Ten points? Unlikely. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2012, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary/608786/19 "2012-01-09T02:02:57Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > That’s not the most likely scenario: neither Bachmann nor DeMint are popular enough within their caucus to lead them. Still, you have the basic gist: Huntsman becomes the Cassandra against the Tea Party (rather like Gary Hart was v. Mondale). The Tea Party over-reaches and disintegrates. Huntsman gains credibility. That would make him **not** -Cassandra. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2012, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary/608786/20 "2012-01-11T01:02:51Z")
And everybody’s calling the race for Romney. So now the discussion moves to more analytical issues like who finished in second, who turned out to vote, and what it means for the upcoming contests. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-hampshire-primary/608786.md?page=2)