# New Jersey as a bellweather for 2014? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 29, 2013, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514 "2013-10-29T00:51:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![deltasigma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e5b9ba/32.png) [@deltasigma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/deltasigma)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/1 "2013-10-29T00:51:58Z")
I don’t normally follow politics but lately I’ve been reading the stray article like this one in the local news. [Political fallout of shutdown could hurt New Jersey Republicans](http://www.mycentraljersey.com/article/20131027/NJNEWS/310270060/Political-fallout-of-shutdown-could-hurt-New-Jersey-Republicans) > [@](#): > > New Jersey Reps. Frank LoBiondo and Jon Runyan, whose seats had been considered safe, now are listed among Republicans whom Democrats want to oust in 2014. > > The Cook Political Report, a Washington-based political race watcher, recently changed its assessment of 14 seats, including those held by LoBiondo and Runyan. The report moved the two seats from the “solidly Republican” category to “likely Republican,” meaning Democrats are perceived as having a change to reclaim them. > One reason for the change is polling that shows the public mostly blames Republicans for the shutdown. Most people think of NJ as true blue but we have, as most people know, a pub gov and 12 cong. districts that currently are evenly split between the parties. I’m not familiar enough with the demographics of the CDs to give much insight except to say that the NE part of the state is very wealthy due to NYC influence and that probably applies to a lesser extent to the northern part and NE corridor between NY and Philly, although as to the latter you also have some truly epic examples of urban-industrial, mad-max, post-apocalyptic nightmarishness sprinkled in there as well (which I sort of love - the refineries on a summer night are a beautiful sight). The southern and eastern parts of the state are pretty rural as is the north and west. The point is, to all appearances, NJ seems to be a lot more middle-of-the-road than I would have imagined and therefore more indicative of how swing voters might lean in 2014. Does that sound like a plausible hypothesis? I know that people normally look at states like Ohio to gauge the swing vote, or at least that’s my impression, but looking at their congressional delegation, they’re 12R-4D. Of course I guess the obvious response is that this is the result of gerrymandering and the swing of pendulum in the last election so an even split now doesn’t mean the state is any less blue, if anything it proves how blue it really is. But on the other hand, if the Pubs look to be giving up their gains from the last election so quickly in a state where the Pub governor looks to be a lock for re-election, that can’t be a good sign. ---
**Author:** ![Amateur\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/59ef9b/32.png) [@Amateur\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Amateur_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 1:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/2 "2013-10-29T01:03:55Z")
First, it’s bellwether. 😃 I think that 2014 is just far enough off that we can’t call anything with assurance, but yes, I think the R’s have been exposed as the political extremists they have become. I predict a loss for many R’s in “comfortable” or balanced districts (the hard core will hold, of course) and an essentially new Republican party in 2016. Can’t come soon enough - not because of any particularly loathing for the current party (although I have plenty of that) but because truly balanced opposing parties are what make things work, and work out, in the long run. We’ve been too unbalanced since the Tea Party co-opted the Republicans. Maybe since the R’s decided “morality” was their province. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 1:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/3 "2013-10-29T01:08:30Z")
The shutdown hasn’t helped Ken Cuccinelli in Virginia. But as badly as everything went for the Republicans in this fiasco, it’s a full year before anybody votes. It’s hard to say how much this will stick in anybody’s memory and we don’t know what will happen over the next year. ---
**Author:** ![deltasigma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e5b9ba/32.png) [@deltasigma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/deltasigma)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/4 "2013-10-29T01:24:53Z")
> [@Avulsed Brainstem](#): > > First, it’s bellwether. 😃 D’oh :smack: Y’ah know, I don’t think the FF spell checker works in the title box. I just typed in now and it corrects here in the text box but not the title box. Somebody get on that pronto. [runs and hides 🙂] You’re right about the time decay rate of voter memory. But the people who actually finance campaigns have much longer memories and that’s what I’m counting on personally. The only real question I have is though, do they try to influence the RNC and local party officials to back more moderate republican candidates or do they vote with their feet and send a more graphic message. Or do they do neither and support both sides as per usual and just adjust split. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 4:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/5 "2013-10-29T04:20:32Z")
> [@Avulsed Brainstem](#): > > Can’t come soon enough - not because of any particularly loathing for the current party (although I have plenty of that) but because truly balanced opposing parties are what make things work, and work out, in the long run. **No,** sir. It is **not** true that each American major party is necessary to restrain the other’s excesses. It **might** be true, if our two-party system were the Democrats v. the Socialists; but Republicanism/conservatism has nothing of value to offer America nor any other country. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 4:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/6 "2013-10-29T04:53:38Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > **No,** sir. It is **not** true that each American major party is necessary to restrain the other’s excesses. It **might** be true, if our two-party system were the Democrats v. the Socialists; but Republicanism/conservatism has nothing of value to offer America nor any other country. What about the “liberal conservatism” of parties such as Christian Democratic Union in Germany or UMP in France? ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 5:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/7 "2013-10-29T05:40:40Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > **No,** sir. It is **not** true that each American major party is necessary to restrain the other’s excesses. It **might** be true, if our two-party system were the Democrats v. the Socialists; but Republicanism/conservatism has nothing of value to offer America nor any other country. I know this is a highjack, so won’t pursue it, but even as extreme a party as the Republicans can still serve the valid role of keeping the majority party honest. The urge to corruption is universal, and one of the duties of the opposition is to search for it, find it, and expose it. The fact that they’re looking for it in birth certificates and Benghazi makes them look idiotic… But people like Blagojevich and Jesse Jackson Jr. make the job absolutely necessary. The press also does its part, but aren’t an organic part of the system; the opposition is. I’m a California Democrat, and am delighted that Sacramento now has a Democratic super-majority in the State Senate and Assembly…but that leaves us slightly more vulnerable to corruption than I like. I’d prefer a Republican party with the integrity to serve the necessary role. ---
**Author:** ![deltasigma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e5b9ba/32.png) [@deltasigma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/deltasigma)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 6:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/8 "2013-10-29T06:00:40Z")
Hijack to your heart’s content. And as long as we’re at it, what I think is really amusing is the fact that the Tea Party was the [direct result of the financial crisis](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tea_Party_movement#First_national_protests) which in turn was the direct result of the policies of Bush II and Greenspan. > [@](#): > > On February 19, 2009,[[88]](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tea_Party_movement#cite_note-McGrath-88) in a broadcast from the floor of the [Chicago Mercantile Exchange](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_Mercantile_Exchange), [CNBC](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CNBC) Business News editor [Rick Santelli](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rick_Santelli) criticized the [government plan to refinance mortgages](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homeowners_Affordability_and_Stability_Plan), which had just been announced the day before. He said that those plans were “promoting bad behavior”[[89]](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tea_Party_movement#cite_note-89) by “subsidizing losers’ mortgages”. He suggested holding a tea party for traders to gather and dump the derivatives in the [Chicago River](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_River) on July 1.[[90]](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tea_Party_movement#cite_note-90)[[91]](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tea_Party_movement#cite_note-cnbc-91)[[92]](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tea_Party_movement#cite_note-chicagotribune2-92) A number of the floor traders around him cheered on his proposal, to the amusement of the hosts in the studio. Santelli’s “rant” became a [viral video](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viral_video) after being featured on the [Drudge Report](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drudge_Report).[[93]](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tea_Party_movement#cite_note-93) > Overnight, websites such as [ChicagoTeaParty.com](http://ChicagoTeaParty.com) (registered in August 2008 by Chicagoan Zack Christenson, radio producer for conservative talk show host [Milt Rosenberg](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milt_Rosenberg),) were live within 12 hours.[[94]](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tea_Party_movement#cite_note-cbs-94) About 10 hours after Santelli’s remarks, [reTeaParty.com](http://reTeaParty.com) was bought to coordinate Tea Parties scheduled for [Independence Day](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_Day_%28United_States%29) and, as of March 4, was reported to be receiving 11,000 visitors a day.[[94]](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tea_Party_movement#cite_note-cbs-94) Note the remark about mortgages and derivatives. I don’t recall specifically, but it’s a safe bet that refers to MBSs and the point was to put a little ketchup on all those AAA rated shit sandwiches. Except Obama had only been in office for a year, so to whom should we send the thank you card for that disaster? Hmmm. And yet somehow, the TP gets co-opted by the same party responsible for it’s creation. Were it not so similar to so many other aspects of abnormal psych like Stockholm syndrome, abused children becoming abusers, etc., it would seem down right bizarre. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 7:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/9 "2013-10-29T07:35:30Z")
For years moderate Republicans did very well in NJ. Christine Todd Whitman comes to mind, as do a number of pro-choice, pro-gun control Republicans from the 1970s-1980s. They were socially liberal and fiscally conservative, back when fiscal conservatism implied low budget deficits and good government. Those days are past. Both the professional class and NJ have been trending Democratic for a while. If NJ is a true swing state in 2016, then the Democrats have lost the election. Admittedly it will take a while for the well-healed of [Morris County](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morris_county,_nj) to wake up and realize that their interests are not served by a Federal government in crisis, both perpetual and wholly artificial. There’s something to be said for paying a little more in taxes if you get solid technocratic policy in return. All members of the 100% have an interest in a strong and healthy populace and economy. ---
**Author:** ![Amateur\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/59ef9b/32.png) [@Amateur\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Amateur_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/10 "2013-10-29T13:42:28Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > **No,** sir. It is **not** true that each American major party is necessary to restrain the other’s excesses. That’s not what I said. Complex problems are better solved if approached from more than one perspective and the solutions are melded into one. They don’t have to be diametrically opposed or even particularly contrarian. The problem of the last 20 year or so is that both parties, starting with and carried to the greatest extreme by the R’s, decided that only extreme positions and only total victory for their view was acceptable. I see the excesses of the D’s as largely (but not entirely) reactive to the extreme positions of the R’s. When the Republicans purge themselves of the moralizing anti-government extremists, both parties can come back to something like balanced centrism and we can start moving forward again. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/11 "2013-10-29T14:33:45Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > What about the “liberal conservatism” of parties such as Christian Democratic Union in Germany or UMP in France? I equate those to the GOP as it was **before** “movement conservatism” ever was heard of. Before Reagan, before Goldwater, before even Senator Robert Taft. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/12 "2013-10-29T14:35:21Z")
> [@Avulsed Brainstem](#): > > I see the excesses of the D’s . . . Such as? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/13 "2013-10-29T15:41:42Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Such as? I second that request. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/14 "2013-10-29T16:09:59Z")
> [@Trinopus](#): > > I know this is a highjack, so won’t pursue it, but even as extreme a party as the Republicans can still serve the valid role of keeping the majority party honest. The urge to corruption is universal, and one of the duties of the opposition is to search for it, find it, and expose it. Then let’s have [proportional representation](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proportional_representation) and a **multi** -party system. Half a dozen or so parties in play **all** keeping each other honest would make for a more honest system overall, wouldn’t it? ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/15 "2013-10-29T16:21:42Z")
**BrainGlutton** , I’m not sure what you’re arguing there. The Republican party has a job to do, and they’re not doing it. The fact that they’re not doing it doesn’t negate the fact that they have a job to do; rather, it calls that fact into starker contrast. ---
**Author:** ![LavenderBlue](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e95f7d/32.png) [@LavenderBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LavenderBlue)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/16 "2013-10-29T18:16:42Z")
Moderate Reps have a shot here in NJ. But the GOP isn’t really running moderates. Christie is wining for gov because he’s a moderate on social issue like choice and gay rights. My local NJ congressperson is Rodney Frelinhuysen. He’s a Rep but he’s a also a fairly moderate Rep. He has a [50% percent rating from NRLC on abortion.](http://www.ontheissues.org/Notebook/Note_06n-NRLC.htm) The NRA gives him a [D which makes pro gun control.](http://www.ontheissues.org/NJ/Rodney_Frelinghuysen.htm#Gun_Control) He would lose in many other areas of the country other than NJ. He would be defeated by either a Dem or a more right wing Rep. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/17 "2013-10-29T18:31:14Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > **BrainGlutton** , I’m not sure what you’re arguing there. The Republican party has a job to do, and they’re not doing it. But keeping the other party honest is **not** that job; it’s an incidental effect of a two-party system, which itself is a thing not designed but spontaneously emergent. A political party’s **job** is to enact or push for certain policies in line with its ideology or constituent-interests, and to block or try to block policies out of line with those. The Pubs are sure doing **that.** ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/18 "2013-10-29T20:57:00Z")
It is all politicians’ job to keep all politicians honest. In a two-party system, it is an emergent feature (just as the two-party system itself is an emergent feeder) that that job mostly gets delegated to the opposite party. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/19 "2013-10-29T22:28:52Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > It is all politicians’ job to keep all politicians honest. Seems like the nearest thing to that Pubs can manage lately is to harp on Benghazi. As for NSA, Gitmo, drone strikes, indefinite detentions . . . not so much. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/20 "2013-10-29T23:05:59Z")
Which is why we need a better conservative party. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514.md?page=2)